Saturday, April20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Smith Mills, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:30PM Saturday April 20, 2019 12:34 PM EDT (16:34 UTC) Moonrise 9:01PMMoonset 6:58AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 1039 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 6 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers, then showers with a slight chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 6 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 7 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft, building to 5 ft in the afternoon. At the bay entrance, waves around 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Waves around 3 ft.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 3 ft. A chance of showers after midnight. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1039 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will move very slowly N from the ohio valley today and tonight with gusty south winds across our waters continuing. A couple of weak low pres areas will rotate over the waters Sun into Tue, with yet another low pres moving in from the west Wed. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smith Mills, MA
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location: 41.57, -71.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201427
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1027 am edt Sat apr 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure system will slowly shift northeast from the ohio
valley, bringing showers with locally heavy rainfall into this
evening. The low pressure will linger across new england into
early next week. Off and on rain chances through Wednesday,
perhaps a drying trend for late week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

first area of showers, some with embedded heavy rains, lies
across most of massachusetts, mainly on either side of the mass
pike as seen on the 14z NE regional 88d radar imagery. Brief
band of light rain continues across ct into ri, with spotty
showers and some patchy drizzle across the S coast, CAPE cod
and the islands. Have had reports of 0.4 inches between 13z
and 14z at both kbdl and kbaf as well.

Another area of heavy rain off the coasts of S nj delmarva
peninsula, which will push n-ne, while the forward motion of
this rain will shift slowly e. So, could hear a few rumbles of
thunder across central and western areas, along with locally
heavy rainfall that may cause street poor drainage flooding in
normally prone areas.

Agree with previous forecaster that, as the highest deep
moisture plume shifts E with the short wave, should see light
precip continue but the heavy bands should also shift E during
the afternoon evening hours.

Previous discussion...

high amplitude trough to the west with mid level low drifting
to the ohio valley today. Downstream meridional flow into new
eng will set up an anomalous 3-4sd pwat and low level wind axis
which which will support numerous showers with locally heavy
rainfall today. Models are showing some elevated CAPE today so
isold t-storms also possible.

Will see additional convection fire off the nj and delmarva
coasts as it lifts north into sne. The axis of heavier rain is
currently fairly well aligned with the low level jet which
slowly shifts east during the day. As a result, the focus for
showers and heavy rainfall should slowly shift east to eastern
new eng during the afternoon while the showers become more
scattered across the west.

Low level jet across sne will result in more gusty winds today.

However, temps will be a bit cooler today with bl mixing not as
robust so gusts should not be as strong as yesterday. Expecting
occasional gusts 30-40 mph. Highs will reach upper 60s to lower
70s, except 60-65 along the immediate south coast where areas
of fog may persist.

Flood watches will continue for western half of sne where
heaviest rainfall expected. Total rainfall of 1-2 inches
expected in the flood watch area with locally up to 3 inches
possible.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Tonight...

low level jet and moisture axis is focused across eastern new
eng where numerous showers will continue through the evening
before becoming more scattered overnight. But rainfall
intensity will diminish as the low level jet weakens. In
western new eng, the threat of scattered showers will continue
but some mid level drying moves in from the west which will
lead to less coverage of showers.

Diminishing winds expected during the night with temps falling
into the low mid 50s by daybreak.

Sunday...

mid level low remains west of new eng with deep southerly flow
continuing. However, somewhat drier air wraps around the low
and moves into new eng while main pwat axis moves offshore. The
risk of showers will continue, especially eastern new eng
although there will be dry periods as well and some breaks of
sunshine will be possible in the interior. Highs will reach
mid upper 60s, cooler south coast.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Highlights ...

* showers and cooler conditions continue Monday into Tuesday
* brief break possible Tuesday before rain chances return overnight
into Wednesday
* cooler with shower chances late week
Monday and Tuesday...

once again we see the slowing exit of an amplified cutoff low over
delmarva Sunday night. The upper low languishes over over the
region, struggling to re-enter the steering flow, and approaches
southern new england Monday night. It finally exits to the east
around morning mid day Tuesday. During the Monday morning to early-
mid Tuesday period we'll see the return of widespread rain chances
with some convection possible on Monday afternoon evening. We see a
secondary surface low form along the frontal boundary to our south
Monday morning which proceeds to meander northward over the region
during the day. At the same time we have a good source of moisutre as
the plume of high pwats wraps back around the upper low and over
sne. We could get some good rain out of this system with 0.5-1" of
rain possible from Monday morning to Tuesday morning. Under the
500mb cold pool lapse rates steepen as well and could allow for some
convection as well. Temperatures are a bit cooler than we saw over
the weekend under said cold pool, reaching into the 60s. Tuesday we
may be able to get into the upper 60 or 70s in spots if we can get
enough breaks of Sun during peak heating hours.

Wednesday through Friday...

a very progressive pattern sets up mid-late week with several
shortwaves dipping through a broad eastern us trough. This comes
with below average confidence in timing of the individual waves as
models have struggled the last several runs to come to any sort of
consensus. As these shortwaves move through, at the surface we see a
couple of distinct low centers crossing sne bringing rain chances
through the entire forecast period. As is to be expected, highest
confidence comes with the earliest of these systems which moves
through around late Tuesday night Wednesday. Moving from the great
lakes region a low crosses northern new england dragging a warm
front through late Tuesday night followed by a cold front later
Wednesday. With this, rain returns much of Wednesday with slightly
cooler temperatures. Beyond Wednesday timing is uncertain but
periodic rain chances continue with noticeably cooler temperatures.

Aviation 14z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Through this afternoon...

widespread ifr-MVFR conditions with numerous shra +shra and
isold thunder will push into central and western new eng by
around 17z, then gradually shifts to ri and eastern ma through
the remainder of the day. Areas of lifr CIGS fog along the
immediate south coast. Continued llws south coast. S-sw gusts
to 30-35 kt.

Tonight...

ifr MVFR conditions with numerous showers, mainly across
eastern new eng. Patchy fog near the coast. Slow improvement
in the west. Diminishing winds.

Sunday...

vfr MVFR CIGS with sct showers, especially eastern new eng.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf
kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
shra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra,
isolated tsra.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
shra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
shra.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

This afternoon...

gusty south winds as low level jet remains across the waters.

Gusts up to 30-35 kt have been reported from the S coast
ferries at mid morning, and should continue through the
afternoon. Gale warnings continue for the south coastal
nearshore waters. Reduced vsbys in fog over south coastal
waters. Numerous showers moving across the waters reaching
eastern ma waters through the remainder of the day.

Tonight...

up to 30 kt gusts in the evening, then winds slowly diminish
during the night. Showers continue along with patchy fog.

Sunday...

southerly winds below 15 kt but rough seas persist over southern
waters.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ...

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 10 ft.

Chance of rain showers.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Chance of
rain showers.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Chance of rain showers.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Tides coastal flooding
Only minimal tidal departures were noted during last evenings
high tide along the south coast. Tidal departures for Saturday
nights high tide should remain less than 1 ft. Given that
astronomical tides are a bit less than last evening, not
expecting much if any inundation issues.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flood watch until 8 pm edt this evening for ctz002>004.

Ma... Flood watch until 8 pm edt this evening for maz002>004-008>012.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 pm edt this evening for anz232>237.

Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for anz230-
251.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Sunday for anz231-250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc bw
near term... Evt bw
short term... Kjc
long term... Bw
aviation... Kjc evt bw
marine... Kjc evt bw
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRXM3 10 mi35 min 70°F 65°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 11 mi35 min S 25 G 35 69°F 1012.3 hPa (+0.9)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 11 mi35 min 71°F 52°F1013.2 hPa (+0.9)
PRUR1 13 mi35 min 58°F 58°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 14 mi35 min S 21 G 28 58°F 45°F1012.5 hPa (+0.5)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 15 mi50 min SSW 13 60°F 1013 hPa60°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 15 mi35 min SW 12 G 19 59°F 1013 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 18 mi35 min S 19 G 23 56°F 52°F1013 hPa (+1.0)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 18 mi35 min S 24 G 27 56°F 50°F1012.8 hPa (+1.1)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 21 mi35 min 60°F 49°F1013.5 hPa (+1.3)
PVDR1 22 mi35 min S 23 G 28 62°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.7)60°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 24 mi31 min SSW 14 G 21 68°F 53°F1012 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 29 mi50 min SSE 6 58°F 1015 hPa57°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 42 mi25 min S 21 G 25 54°F 48°F1014.4 hPa54°F
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 42 mi35 min 46°F10 ft
44090 43 mi35 min 44°F2 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA10 mi42 minS 17 G 2510.00 miOvercast67°F66°F97%1013 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI11 mi42 minSSE 16 G 252.00 miFog/Mist59°F59°F100%1012.8 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI19 mi45 minSSW 242.00 miFog/Mist and Windy61°F59°F94%1011.5 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI22 mi44 minS 19 G 2810.00 miOvercast and Breezy69°F64°F87%1012.5 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA22 mi43 minS 12 G 2210.00 miOvercast72°F64°F76%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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2 days agoCalmSE11SE10SE11S12S11S11S6S5S5SW3SW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7SE10SE11SE17
G23
SE13
G19

Tide / Current Tables for Hix Bridge, East Branch, Westport River, Massachusetts
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Hix Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:23 AM EDT     -0.63 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:51 AM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:25 PM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:12 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.21.20.3-0.3-0.6-0.5-00.922.93.22.92.21.30.4-0.2-0.5-0.40.10.923.13.6

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:09 AM EDT     -2.85 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:09 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:58 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:40 AM EDT     2.70 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 12:34 PM EDT     -2.84 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:30 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:04 PM EDT     2.57 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:24 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.8-2.6-1.9-1.1-0.20.81.82.52.61.80.1-1.7-2.7-2.8-2.2-1.5-0.60.41.32.12.62.10.8-1.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.