Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Melville, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday March 26, 2017 7:07 AM EDT (11:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:57AMMoonset 5:35PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 409 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Rain likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt...increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 409 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Canadian high pres will shift E of new england today and Mon. Low pres will cross the waters Tue. Canadian high pres will build over new england Wed and Thu and last through Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melville, RI
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location: 41.58, -71.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 261052
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
652 am edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A front will remain stalled to our south today, then push north
as a warm front late tonight into Monday. Another low pressure
will move across southern new england Tuesday, bringing some
rain showers. High pressure brings dry but cooler weather
Wednesday and Thursday. Then more precipitation possible late
Friday into Saturday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
700 am update...

overall trend in the forecast is on track this morning. Have
increased pops across the southwest due to the quicker nature of
precip moving into ct. If this precip moves in even quicker than
there is a better shot for wintry mix/precip. Feel that the
current sps is still good so will hold off on issuing anything.

Still this is something to watch.

Otherwise, on and off showers for today as warm front to the
south slowly begins its northward advancement.

Previous discussion...

high pressure shifts east into the maritimes. Ageostrophic
winds remain from the north during the day. It will take some
time for a front to our south to get close enough to southern
new england before precipitation will be a risk. By that time,
temperatures should have risen enough to minimize the threat of
freezing rain or sleet across much of our region. The greatest
risk for freezing rain and sleet will be towards the eastern
slopes of the berkshires.

Due to the spotty nature of the freezing rain coverage, and
limited amount of sleet, will not have a advisory in effect this
morning. Will issue a special weather statement instead.

Increasing clouds will slow temperature rises into this
afternoon. MAX temperatures likely will be near or slightly
below those from Saturday.

Short term /6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday/
Tonight...

the stronger low level south winds shift farther east Sunday
evening and bring a greater potential for lift and precipitation
production through the night, especially after midnight.

Temperature profiles showing a strong warm nose aloft. North
ageostropic winds continue near the ground, which will set the
stage for freezing rain across the higher terrain of central and
western ma. Some freezing rain possible across northernmost
connecticut. However, thinking coverage is too limited at this
time to warrant an advisory. This could change with later
forecasts.

Monday...

warm front finally moves north into southern new england. This
will end the threat of any freezing rain across our region.

However, that will not end the possibility for rain as a low
pressure moves through our region. This rain could be moderate
to heavy at times. Temperatures should be near normal.

Long term /Monday night through Saturday/
Highlights...

* showery weather ahead of approaching cold front on Tuesday
* cooler but dry weather for mid-week
* active weather returns late in the week into the weekend
pattern overview...

00z models and ensembles show fairly good agreement on the
maintenance of a longwave trough over the western states with
flat flow to moderate mean riding prevailing downstream over
the east. A separate northern stream progresses along either
side of the canadian border. Within this consensus mean pattern
models and ensembles have been showing a lot of spread for some
of the embedded features. This is noticed as early as the day 3
forecast. Both the GFS and GEFS are more amplified compared to
the rest of model suite. However still anticipate open wave
interacts with the northern stream bringing a shot of precip on
Tuesday. Upper level trough with surface high pressure for the
mid-week as another upper level closed low diffuses towards the
region late in the week.

Details...

Monday night into Tuesday... Low confidence.

Weak ridging in the mid-levels will result in a break in the
precip Monday night into Tuesday morning. Focus then turns to
the next open wave and how it will interact with the northern
stream. The GFS is more amplified compared to the progressive ec
with the remaining guidance inbetween. Used a model blend for
this portion of the forecast.

First wave will move offshore and with weak ridging aloft,
anticipate a drying trend in the forecast. Timing issues for
the next shot of precip on Tuesday, but feel there is enough of
a chance to keep pops in the forecast ahead of approaching cold
front. Thermal ridge over southern new england may help increase
temps near or above seasonable. In fact, depending on mixing
and cloud cover, we could see temps warm into the 60s. Southerly
flow will help increase low level moisture and with approaching
front, could see iso thunder as guidance hints at elevated
convection.

Cold front will sweep through during the overnight hours
ushering in dry air and northwest flow Tuesday night.

Wednesday into Friday... High confidence.

Trough overhead as upper level low deepens as it moves towards
the canadian maritimes. This puts the region in northwest flow
through the period resulting in dry but breezy conditions.

There might be a few showers across the northeast on Wednesday
in cyclonic flow. Despite cold advection, the environment should
be well mixed, so MAX temperatures will be close to normal.

Northwest flow continues on Thursday with an area of high
pressure building in new england. Anticipate increasing
sunshine and lighter winds. Dry and seasonable conditions should
persist through Friday with high pressure in control.

Friday night into the weekend... Low confidence.

Split flow remains over the region with the next southern stream
wave interacting with the northern stream. Large model spread for
the Friday night into the weekend time frame leading to a low
confidence forecast. The GFS suppresses the system well to our
south, with a dry northern stream flow dominating. However, the
ecmwf and cmc continues to indicate the low opening into a
progressive trough and tracking across the region. Overall this
portion of the forecast will depend on the strength and timing of
the upper level wave and thus surface reflections. Because of the
large spread in the guidance will continue with low confidence
forecast.

Aviation /12z Sunday through Thursday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Monday/... Moderate confidence.

Today... MainlyVFR. Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys in possible
precipitation, especially in ct and western ma. Patchy
freezing rain or sleet toward the berkshires from late morning
into this afternoon.

Tonight... Conditions lower to MVFR, with ifr in the central
hills and the berkshires. Increasing chance of precipitation
through the night from southwest to northeast. Increasing
chance of sleet or freezing rain in areas north and west of
boston- providence. Greatest risk for precipitation will be late
at night, as the Monday morning push starts to gear up.

Monday... Any leftover -fzra/-pl in the morning will end across
higher terrain by mid morning. Otherwise, MVFR-ifr CIGS in rain.

Kbos taf... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/...

Monday night... Moderate confidence. Improving conditions toVFR.

Tuesday... High confidence. MVFR conditions within any passing rain
showers with improving CIGS toVFR. Low risk for thunder.

Wednesday into Thursday... High confidence. Gusty n/w winds
Wednesday withVFR conditions into Thursday.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Monday/...

today... High confidence. East winds less than 20 knots. Seas
less than 5 feet.

Tonight... High confidence. Approaching low pressure from the
west will spread rain across the waters from west to east. Winds
will remain below 20 knots and seas below 5 feet through the
period.

Monday... Moderate confidence. Warm front with weak low pressure
along it may kick up southeast to south winds to near 25 kt
gusts and seas could build to 5-6 ft over the outer waters.

Small craft advisories are likely for some of the outer waters.

Outlook /Monday night through Thursday/...

Tuesday... Moderate confidence. Frontal system will pass over the
waters increasing them to above 5 feet. SCA may be needed.

Wednesday into Thursday... High confidence. Gusty NW winds near
gales on Wednesday will help increase seas. SCA will be needed
at the very least. High pressure nosing in on Thursday will
slowly relax seas.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Freezing rain advisory from midnight tonight to 8 am edt
Monday for maz002>004-008-009-012-026.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Monday for anz256.

Synopsis... Belk/dunten
near term... Belk/dunten
short term... Belk
long term... Dunten
aviation... Belk/dunten
marine... Belk/dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 2 mi56 min NNE 11 G 13 34°F 38°F1032.2 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi50 min NE 9.9 G 13 33°F 1032.7 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi83 min NE 9.9 33°F 1032 hPa31°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 8 mi50 min NNE 7 G 8.9 33°F 38°F1031.7 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi50 min N 9.9 G 12 32°F 38°F1031.9 hPa
PVDR1 15 mi50 min N 6 G 8 32°F 1031.8 hPa27°F
FRXM3 16 mi50 min 31°F 29°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 16 mi50 min ENE 4.1 G 7 32°F 39°F1031.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi50 min NE 8 G 9.9 31°F 1032.5 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 17 mi50 min 30°F 38°F1032.5 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi68 min NNE 12 G 13 35°F 1031.7 hPa (+0.7)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi50 min N 4.1 G 6 33°F 40°F1031.7 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi38 min N 6 G 8 34°F 29°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 41 mi50 min 34°F 37°F1031.4 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi43 min 40°F3 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi50 min 37°F 38°F1031.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi83 min 33°F 33°F

Wind History for Quonset Point, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI9 mi75 minNNE 910.00 miFair32°F30°F96%1031.3 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI10 mi77 minNNE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy31°F25°F79%1032.1 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI23 mi72 minNNE 510.00 miFair25°F23°F92%1033.8 hPa

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW15
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SW15SW15W15W15------------------NE8NE8NE7NE10NE10NE10NE12NE10
1 day agoNW16NW15NW15NW8W5W5W5----------------SW6SW10--SW12
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2 days ago--NW15
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----------------NW8N17N17N16NW12NW14N22NW18NW15

Tide / Current Tables for Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Wickford
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Sun -- 12:32 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:18 AM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Sun -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 07:36 PM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-0.2-0.20.10.71.62.63.64.13.93.11.90.7-0.1-0.4-0.20.41.22.33.44.14.23.52.31

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:18 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:54 AM EDT     2.21 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 10:36 AM EDT     -2.82 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 02:25 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 05:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:14 PM EDT     2.47 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 07:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:35 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:02 PM EDT     -2.85 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-1-0.20.61.322.21.70.2-1.5-2.6-2.7-2.1-1.3-0.40.51.322.42.21-0.8-2.3-2.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.