Thursday, February21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Melville, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 5:27PM Thursday February 21, 2019 5:27 PM EST (22:27 UTC) Moonrise 9:06PMMoonset 9:01AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 303 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Tonight..W winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 3 ft.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat night..SE winds around 5 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 3 ft after midnight. Rain with a chance of snow after midnight.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 5 ft.
Mon..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 40 kt. Waves around 6 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. At the bay entrance, waves around 7 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves around 3 ft. At the bay entrance, waves around 6 ft, subsiding to 4 ft after midnight.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 303 Pm Est Thu Feb 21 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres moves east of the waters this afternoon. High pres follows for Fri and Sat. A warm front will approach the waters on Sun, bringing widespread rain and strong s-se winds across the waters. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melville, RI
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location: 41.58, -71.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 212000
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
300 pm est Thu feb 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the great lakes builds over new england thru
Friday night, then moves to the east on Saturday. This will bring
a period of drier air and seasonably cool temperatures. Wintry mess
for Saturday night into Sunday. Windy Sunday night through Tuesday,
especially Monday when wind headlines are possible. Colder than
average Wednesday onward while monitoring for any storm activity.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
High pressure brings fair skies tonight. Rising surface pressures
over southern new england, but only 1 mb hr or less. This should
be enough to maintain a pressure gradient that generates west-
northwest winds tonight. These winds bring in a cooler airmass,
with temps reaching the 20s and lower 30s.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
High pressure builds over new england Friday and Friday night.

Subsidence will maintain dry weather through the period. Mixing
to 925 mb supports MAX sfc temps around 40. Radiational cooling
at night with dew points in the teens to low 20s... Suggests fri
night min temps in the upper teens and 20s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
* highlights ...

- wintry mess Saturday night into Sunday, prolonged freezing rain
- windy Sunday night thru Tuesday, ESP Monday, headlines possible
- cold pattern Wednesday onward, watching for any storms
* overview ...

mild or cold? Put it simply, an airmass battle between arctic air
squeezed equatorward versus anomalous tropical pacific westerlies.

Once again, which side of the envelop with respect to storm-track.

So what's going on? 1.) typhoon wutip presence, later usurped into
pacific maritime flow by march 1st, promotes higher heights pole-
ward with latent heat release thereby strengthening a parent h3 jet
streak. Downstream split-flow regime amplification, development of a
rex-block across the NW pacific, enhanced ridging over alaska yields
an increased cross-polar flow equatorward across N america. This as
stronger storminess over hawaii maintains and builds upon anomalous
tropical westerly fetch into western N america. Confluence between
the two prevails across the conus. But 2.) better ec mjo forecasts
project a phase 8 to phase 3 transition, tropical activity promotion
shifting across the equatorial atlantic into the indian ocean rather
than across the equatorial pacific where the aforementioned tropical
westerly fetch resides. With favorable S greenland storm development
persisting, suggested enhanced equatorial atlantic tropical activity
then 3.) greater perhaps subsequent tropical ingest towards W europe
would explain anomalous higher height forecasts poleward over the ne
atlantic.

Two-sided arctic squeeze, understandably an equatorward arctic air
displacement. But against anomalous tropical westerlies, arctic air
seemingly buckles N yielding a confluent, near-zonal flow persisting
downstream. However, should anomalous tropical westerlies weaken, or
rather steer more N along the W conus, then we could see deeper h5
troughing across the central E conus.

Weekend wintry weather mess, windy conditions. Another warm-frontal
upslope event over-riding surface colder temperatures. This followed
by flat-bottom, persistent h5 troughing through which energy zips
along a nearly wsw-ene thermal gradient. Favoring ec ecens guidance
which suggests we maintain on the cold side of envelope within the
long-term. Break down details below.

* discussion ...

Saturday night into Sunday ...

wintry mess. Until the main closed h85-7 low lifts N with attendant
frontal boundaries, will keep colder air wedged in per drainage flow
derived from ageostrophic isallobaric winds. Interior N winds from
a surface ridge of high pressure over SE canada, believe it'll take
longer to scour out the cold given an onset nocturnal event. We've
seen it before. Evaluating MAX wet-bulb within h925-7 layer, non-gfs
preference, brief onset snow transitioning SW to NE to sleet then to
freezing rain. Freezing rain likely to hold out right through Sunday
morning for interior valleys, especially pioneer and merrimack. This
prior to winds shifting s, most places to rain, precip concluding by
evening. Especially so if a secondary surface low develops as some
forecast guidance suggests. Coating up around 1 inch of snow sleet
while another freezing rain event of a coating to 0.3. First guess
d3 forecast which will likely become refined prior. Lot of moisture
pumping into the system as alluded to by the previous forecaster
with precipitable waters exceeding an inch ... Anomalous. Still
some uncertainty with depth of preceding cold air, how long it
maintains before warming up through the column allowing for rain.

Sunday night into Monday persisting into Tuesday ...

windy. Two things: 1.) robust storm development off SE canada with
high pressure building across the CONUS yields strong height rises
centered right around Monday. And 2.) beginning to see cross-polar
flow dip S up against warmer westerlies. An enhancement in the height
profile aloft echoed down into the low levels as arctic energy dives
s on the backside of the departing storm. Increased jet winds as the
boundary layer mixes up to h7. Especially Monday, we could be mixing
down winds that meet or exceed high wind warning criteria. Gusts in
excess of 50 mph not out of the question especially over the waters.

Will hit on the threat in the hazardous weather outlook. Cold air
advection continuing into Tuesday as high pressure builds in, winds
expected to remain blustery Monday night diminishing into Tuesday,
concluding by Tuesday night. Watching wind chills.

Wednesday onward ...

got to watch additional energy zipping along the flat base of a h5
trof persisting across S canada, bowling S over the N conus. If the
ec is correct keeping us on the cold side of the envelope, have to
watch for chances of snow. Seems to be a lost connection to tropical
airmasses, more continental, suggest if any outcomes they would be
light. Low confidence forecast, simply watch and wait for now.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

vfr. Breezy west to northwest winds.

Friday and Friday night...

vfr.

Kbos terminal...

high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal...

high confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Ra, fzra, chance sn, chance pl.

Sunday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Windy with gusts up to
35 kt. Ra, fzra.

Sunday night:VFR. Windy with gusts up to 35 kt. Chance sn.

Monday through Monday night:VFR. Strong winds with gusts up to
45 kt.

Tuesday:VFR. Windy with local gusts up to 30 kt.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

High pressure builds over new england through Friday night.

Expect gusty west-northwest winds tonight, diminishing as the
center of the high moves overhead by Friday night. Winds gust
25-30 kt tonight, then diminish Friday. Seas linger at 5-6 feet
on the exposed waters tonight and Friday morning, then subsides
below 5 feet Friday afternoon and night.

Small craft advisory continues on most waters through Friday
morning, and on the outer waters through Friday afternoon.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Rain, freezing rain, chance of snow.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 9 ft. Rain.

Sunday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Monday: low risk for storm force winds with gusts up to 50 kt.

Rough seas up to 15 ft.

Monday night: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up
to 45 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Tuesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 7 am est Friday for anz232>235-237.

Small craft advisory until 9 am est Friday for anz231.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Friday for anz250-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 9 am est Friday for anz251.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Wtb sipprell
marine... Wtb sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 2 mi58 min W 8.9 G 12 47°F 38°F1012.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi103 min NW 6 49°F 1012 hPa30°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi58 min NW 4.1 G 12 47°F 1012.3 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 8 mi58 min WNW 7 G 9.9 47°F 37°F1012.4 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi58 min WNW 16 G 18 47°F 38°F1012.1 hPa
PVDR1 15 mi58 min NW 9.9 G 18 48°F 1012.1 hPa29°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 16 mi58 min N 7 G 13 48°F 36°F1011.6 hPa
FRXM3 16 mi58 min 45°F 31°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi58 min WNW 11 G 15 48°F 1012.1 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 17 mi58 min 44°F 42°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi88 min WSW 18 G 19 39°F 1012.4 hPa (+0.7)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi58 min W 2.9 G 6 47°F 38°F1012.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi48 min WSW 13 G 15 41°F 1012.6 hPa36°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 41 mi58 min 42°F 36°F1011.7 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi58 min 42°F6 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi58 min 44°F 38°F1013.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi103 min W 5.1 47°F 1012 hPa35°F

Wind History for Quonset Point, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI2 mi38 minWNW 315.00 miClear46°F30°F53%1012.2 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI9 mi35 minWNW 510.00 miFair45°F30°F56%1012.1 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI10 mi37 minWNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F28°F50%1012.2 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI23 mi32 minWNW 810.00 miFair44°F27°F51%1006.9 hPa

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3CalmS5SE8SE10SE11----------------N10N8NW6NW6NW14NW10NW15NW16NW15NW3
1 day agoNW12NW10NW8NW10NW10NW10----------------CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SW8W10
2 days ago----------------------------N8N10N12N12N14NW7N8NW12NW7NW10

Tide / Current Tables for Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island (2)
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Wickford
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM EST     -1.17 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:00 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:04 AM EST     4.91 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:51 PM EST     -1.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:26 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 08:05 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:28 PM EST     4.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.8-0.5-1.1-1.1-0.50.51.83.24.44.94.53.21.60.1-0.8-1-0.70.11.32.73.94.74.73.7

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:42 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:18 AM EST     2.41 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 07:59 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 09:38 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:12 PM EST     -3.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 03:58 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:44 PM EST     2.75 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 08:04 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:12 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.9-2.5-1.6-0.70.31.21.92.42.21.1-0.7-2.4-3.1-2.9-2-1011.92.62.720.4-1.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.