Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Melville, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:07PM Thursday May 23, 2019 7:32 PM EDT (23:32 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:20AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 716 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 2 am edt Friday...
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Isolated tstms. Widespread showers this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming nw around 5 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Sun..SW winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front sweeps across the waters late tonight and early Fri followed by gusty nw winds turning N Fri. High pres builds over new eng Fri night, moving south of the waters Sat. Another cold front will move across the waters late Sun or Sun night. High pres builds briefly over the waters on Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Melville, RI
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location: 41.58, -71.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231952
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
352 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Scattered showers with embedded heavy downpours this evening followed
by a sweeping cold front overnight. Windy, seasonable conditions
Friday with light showers along the coast. Much of Saturday looks
dry with pleasant temperatures, but a fast moving disturbance will
probably bring a period of showers late Saturday into early Sunday.

The rest of Sunday into memorial day looks to be warm and mainly
dry, but an approaching warm front may bring some showers by Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
4 pm update ...

scattered showers with embedded heavier downpours, chance of thunder-
storms will continue into this evening. Thinking now is that this
is going to be it and there may not be much development behind this
pre-frontal trof of activity and ahead of the sweeping cold front
later tonight.

Not much opportunity for the environment to destabilize today and
there isn't much instability aloft save for the moist-adiabatic,
conditionally unstable mid-level lapse rates. Increasing shear
as the main mid-upper level jet screams across new england in
advance of a potent shortwave digging across the NE CONUS to the
rear of the cold front. With any storm development presently
moving into new england this hour, updrafts are going have a
difficult time keeping upright given low instability, high shear
setup.

Nothing strong, nothing severe, one or two potential storms that
could yield heavy downpours along the pre-frontal trof. Dry air
on both sides. This is looking like the main event. Pushing
through into the early evening hours, the last lingering as late
as midnight, will see a dry period and breezy SW winds prior to
the cold front sweeping through overnight into early morning
Friday.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Friday into Friday night ...

breezy, seasonable, dry conditions. Potent shortwave and mid-level
h5 trof digs out towards SE canada promoting further cyclogenesis
that along the backside of which will amplify the low-level wind
profile and promote steep lapse rates to h8. Moisture lingering,
one of two things: 1.) some light shower activity is possible
along e-coastal ma, and 2.) all of S new england will see breezy
n winds with gusts up as high as 40 mph but below wind advisory
thresholds. Scattered to broken cloud decks, more than likely
thicker further e. Highs around the upper 60s during the day.

Both clouds and winds dissipate going into the evening and
overnight, but lingering enough to limit radiational cooling.

Lows down into the 40s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
As of 323 pm edt Thursday...

highlights...

* memorial day weekend will feature warmer than normal
temperatures, with some showers mainly Saturday night and
early Sunday. Monday will be dry and comfortably warm -
especially away from the coast.

* several risks for showers t-storms during the week. Could be
warm for midweek.

Details...

overall models from 00z & 12z are in decent agreement through
the holiday weekend, and then start to deviate after that. As
such, stuck with the model blend for most of next week with
little change to populate the forecast as confidence is lower in
any specific outcomes. A little more clarity confidence for
this weekend's weather. Comments regarding each day are below,
for those that want to get into some deeper technical reading...

Saturday:
looks like a pretty decent day. 925mb temperatures are around
15c, so that would support highs in the mid 70s inland. Not a
strong pressure gradient, so sea breezes will develop by early
afternoon, keeping coastal areas to the 60s to maybe 70f. A
shortwave will approach late in the day, with at least
increasing clouds in western areas. Did hold back the chance for
any showers until evening, and even then just for mainly western
mass. Overnight the shortwave will roll through. Some elevated
instability, so perhaps a rumble or two of thunder, mainly just
light showers. Liked the model blend with 60-70% pops and
roughly 0.1 to 0.2" total.

Sunday: more like summer, which is appropriate for the holiday
weekend to kick off summer. 925mb temperatures up around 20c,
which would suggest mid 80s for highs away from the coast. Upped
the model blends several degrees. Again, sea breezes keeping it
cooler at the coast. Dewpoints will be rising into the lower
60s, and along with the warm temperatures, we will have some
surface based instability. No strong forcing, but can't rule out
a few showers or isolated t-storm that initiate along the sea
breeze and higher terrain. All in all most of us will see a
decent amount of Sun and stay dry. So i'd say "it's a go" for
those outdoor activities. Uncertainty for Sunday night as gfs
has a shortwave move through with perhaps a few showers. 12z
euro says dry. Have some low pops in the forecast, so we'll see
if later model give more clarity.

Monday memorial day: flow turns northwest, with a building
ridge. Look for high and dry weather with lots of sun. 925mb
temperatures of 17-19c suggest highs in the 70s and approaching
80 in places like the ct river valley. Sea breezes again.

Tuesday to Thursday: as mentioned above, confidence not all that
high for mid week. The general trend will be for high pressure
to move offshore, setting up southwest flow to bring in bring in
some warm air, which will then be pushed out with a cold front
sometime Wednesday night or Thursday. That warm air could
actually be pretty hot. 12z GFS has 925mb temperatures
approaching 25c on Wednesday. That would support temperatures
into the 90s across inland areas. The 00z euro had a bunch of
clouds showers and cooler conditions, but then the 12z euro came
in looking more like the GFS and a hot day. Though the GFS has
been showing a hot day for a few runs, that's not the case with
other models like fv3-gfs, canadian, euro. In fact, some show a
back door cold front slicing the area as well. Given that, stuck
with the model blend, which does feature highs into the lower
80s inland. Along with that, went with lots of 30-40% pops given
uncertainty in what will happen and exactly when.

Aviation 20z Thursday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

20z update ...

rest of today into evening ...

low-endVFR CIGS 3-4 kft with breezy SW winds 10 to 15 kts, gusts
around 20 to 25 kts. Sct shra sweeping now through roughly 2z NW to
se. Embedded +ra, chance tsra. Brief MVFR-ifr likely with ra +ra tsra.

Overnight ...

clearing out 3-9z nw-se. Ifr vsbys and CIGS are forecast to impact
terminals E of lwm-orh-ijd before improving as winds shift W becoming
blustery, 10 to 15 kts with gusts around 20-25 kts.

Friday into Friday night ...

sct-bkn low-endVFR CIGS 3-4 kft, more ovc e. N NW winds sustained
15 to 20 kts with gusts around 25 to 30 kts. Will see both CIGS and
winds diminish into the evening hours and overnight.VFR.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Shra
likely, patchy br.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Memorial day:VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Rest of today ...

sw winds sustained around 10 to 15 kts, gusts around 20 to 25
kts will push seas 3 to 5 feet on the outer waters. Small craft
advisories issued accordingly.

Tonight...

sw winds continue prior to a sweeping cold front during the early
morning hours. Will see sustained 10 to 15 kts with gusts around
20 to 25 kts throughout as the cold front sweeps through, SW winds
shifting w, waves building 5 to 7 feet on the outer waters. Lower
visibility with any heavy showers or thunderstorms that are forecast
ahead of the sweeping cold front. Heavy rain elements occurring
around midnight.

Friday into Friday night ...

gales over the E waters by midday into afternoon with overcast
cloud decks and possible light showers. Winds dissipating into
evening and overnight. Waves on the outer waters possibly
pushing up as high as 8 to 10 feet peaking close to sunset then
dissipating thereafter.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, patchy fog.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers, patchy fog.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog.

Memorial day: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday night through Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening for
anz231-232-250-254-255.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Friday for anz232>234.

Small craft advisory until midnight edt tonight for anz230.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for anz231-236-251.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt Friday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Sipprell ajn
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Ajn
aviation... Sipprell ajn
marine... Sipprell ajn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 2 mi38 min S 11 G 13 58°F 58°F1013.9 hPa
PRUR1 7 mi38 min 58°F 55°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi107 min SSW 6 59°F 1016 hPa54°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi38 min SW 7 G 15 58°F 1014.1 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 8 mi38 min S 15 G 20 58°F 52°F1013.9 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 11 mi38 min S 19 G 21 58°F 58°F1013.5 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 16 mi38 min S 14 G 20 60°F 1013.9 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 16 mi38 min SSW 11 G 14 61°F 56°F1013 hPa
FRXM3 16 mi38 min 60°F 55°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 17 mi38 min 60°F 59°F1014.5 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi38 min SSW 8 G 12
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 39 mi37 min S 15 G 16 57°F 1012.9 hPa54°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 41 mi38 min 60°F 57°F1014.7 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 45 mi32 min 53°F4 ft
MTKN6 - 8510560 - Montauk, NY 46 mi38 min 57°F 53°F1013.5 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 48 mi107 min WNW 5.1 62°F 1017 hPa54°F

Wind History for Quonset Point, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI2 mi42 minSW 1310.00 miLight Drizzle61°F55°F83%1013.5 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI9 mi39 minS 10 G 178.00 miLight Rain57°F55°F93%1013.9 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI10 mi41 minS 1210.00 miOvercast60°F54°F80%1013.6 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI23 mi36 minSSW 7 G 1510.00 miOvercast58°F54°F87%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS15S12S16S14----------------SW13SW16SW12SW10SW16SW12S18S19SW20S14SW18SW13
1 day agoN22N12NW10NW10----------------N15N15
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2 days ago------------------------NW19NW18
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Tide / Current Tables for Wickford, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island (2)
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Wickford
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:14 AM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 12:05 PM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:09 PM EDT     0.56 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.13.52.51.40.60.40.40.71.11.82.53.13.43.22.41.50.80.60.711.422.73.3

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:20 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:47 AM EDT     -2.51 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:18 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:37 AM EDT     2.31 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:19 PM EDT     -2.30 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:38 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT     1.81 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-1.1-2.2-2.5-2-1.3-0.60.20.91.62.22.31.5-0-1.5-2.3-2.2-1.6-1-0.40.20.91.51.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.