Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Milford, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:32PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 1:22 PM EDT (17:22 UTC) Moonrise 9:25AMMoonset 11:24PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1136 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late this morning, then chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming S with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms at night.
Sat..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1136 Am Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front moves through the waters this evening. High pressure will then briefly follow for the middle of the week. Another frontal system approaches for the end of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Milford, CT
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location: 41.58, -73.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 271634
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1234 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
A strong upper level low and a cold front will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to eastern new york and western new
england today. The cool air mass will be over the region tonight,
as high pressure will build in from the mid atlantic region for
Wednesday with the best chance of a shower or isolated
thunderstorm north of the capital region and mohawk valley. A
warm front will approach from the ohio valley and lower great
lakes region bringing more showers and a chance of thunderstorms
Thursday into Thursday night.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Marginal risk for severe thunderstorms continues through this
afternoon for much of eastern ny adjacent western new england...

as of 1240 pm edt, potent upper level shortwave across western
nys continues to translate east northeast. Increasing upper
level forcing, combined with cooling mid level
temperatures steepening low and mid level lapse rates will lead
to numerous showers isolated thunderstorms through the remainder
of the afternoon for locations near and especially north of
i-90, with more scattered coverage to the south, where forcing
will be slightly weaker.

Taller convective elements will be capable of small hail gusty
winds, with locally heavy downpours likely otherwise. It is
quite possible that although hail size may remain generally sub-
severe, there could be quite a bit of it accumulating in some
stronger and or slower moving cells.

Also, given such strong forcing and cooling aloft, despite
limited sunshine, we can not rule out isolated larger
hail damaging wind gusts. The stronger wind gusts would be more
likely in any thunderstorms that tend to merge form clusters
and or small bowing line segments, which in combination with
strong wet bulb cooling, could produce strong winds.

There is a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms today across
eastern ny and western new england... .

Upper impulse in western ny heading east and convection with
small hail occurring out there already. Band of showers heading
into the southern adirondacks and schoharie valley now, will
exit through midday. The dry area between the band of rain and
the convection seen in satellite imagery should fill in as
daytime heating occurs.

So, coverage of showers and isolated thunderstorms will
increase, with chances for small hail and gusty winds. Area
soundings at 12z show wet bulb zero levels are quite low with
the cold air aloft and convective initiation temperatures are
around 70 in eastern ny but only in the lower 60s in western ny,
the atmosphere that will be tracking into our region through
the afternoon.

The previous afd has a few more details and is below...

h500 heights are 2 to 3 standard deviations below normal based
on the latest GEFS with the anomalous upper trough. Short-wave
energy associated with the upper trough and a cold front sfc
trough will focus scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms this afternoon.

Some sunshine this morning into the early afternoon will allow
for enough heating to occur for some strong to potentially
severe thunderstorms to impact the region. Low and mid-level
height falls will occur ahead of the upper level trough. The
cold pool and the differential cyclonic vorticity advection with
the upper low will allow for showers and thunderstorms to
develop. The big change from yesterday is that the model
guidance from the NAM and the GFS is showing more surface-based
instability. Sbcapes are in the 500-1500 j kg range with sfc
dewpts in the 50s to around 60f. The hi-res ncar ensembles have
mean sbcapes in the 750-1000 j kg range over the forecast area
in the afternoon. The 0-6 km bulk shear values increase to 40-50
kts with the greatest shear from the capital region southern
vt eastern catskills south and east. Wet-bulb zero heights are
forecasted low in the 6-8 kft agl range with steep mid-level
lapse rates in the 6.5-7.25 c km range. Organized convection
with perhaps some mini-supercells are possible, though multi-
cells will likely be the dominate mode. Large hail and some
damaging will be the main threats with the taller updrafts
associated with some of the thunderstorms. The unidirectional
southwesterly flow in the low to mid levels of the troposphere
may allow for some lines to form with bowing segments or some
the hail cores descending from the thunderstorms could produce
some damaging winds, though hail looks to be the primary threat.

Enhanced wording was kept in the grids for small hail and gusty
winds.

The convection should quickly fire up between noon-2 pm across
eastern ny based on the latest cams 3-km hrrr and 3-km NAM .

Pwats will be in the 0.7-1.0" range which are normal to slightly
below normal for this time of year, but some quick bursts of
rain will be possible with the hail and wind threats.

High temps will be around 10 degrees below normal with upper
60s to lower 70s in most of the valley areas, except the mid-
hudson valley where some mid and upper 70s are possible... And
upper 50s to mid 60s will be common over the hills and
mountains.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
Tonight... The showers and thunderstorm should taper and diminish
quickly in the late afternoon and early evening. A few lake
enhanced showers may persist until midnight for the western
adirondacks and some slight to low chance pops were kept in the
forecast. The short-wave embedded in the upper trough pivots
and lifts northeast into southern quebec. H850 temps fall to
+5c to +7c over the region. Some clearing in the wake of the
cold front sfc trough coupled with wet ground and light winds
will promote some patchy fog formation. Lows will be in the
upper 40s to lower 50s across the region.

Wednesday... The mid and upper level trough progresses downstream
of the forecast area. The residual cold pool coupled with a weak
short-wave in the west to northwest flow aloft will trigger some
isolated to scattered showers and possibly isolated
thunderstorms north of the mohawk valley and the capital
region into the lake george region, southern adirondacks, and
southern vt. Sbcapes look low this day at less than 500 j kg.

High pressure will be ridging in from the south near the mid
atlantic region with partly sunny and dry conditions for most of
the forecast area. Temps will rebound a tad closer to normal
with many mid to upper 70 readings in the valleys, and mid 60s
to lower 70s over the higher elevations. A few 80f readings will
be possible in the mid-hudson valley.

Wednesday night... Fair conditions persist most of the night with
mid and high clouds increasing from the south and west ahead of
a warm front over the ohio valley and great lakes region
especially after midnight. Some radiational cooling early on
before the clouds increase will allow for lows to be mainly in
the 50s with a few upper 40s over the mtns.

Thu-thu night... The mid and upper level flow becomes zonal. Warm
advection occurs in the low to mid levels. A low pressure system
will be approaching the great lakes region with a warm front
extending S SE across the eastern great lakes region into pa.

Strong isentropic lift increases in the late morning into the
afternoon with a strengthening south to southwest low-level jet
of 35-40+ kts. A period of rain or showers may overspread the
region by the late morning into the afternoon. This is variable
in the guidance. It is difficult to determine if an MCS will
impact the region late Thu into Thu night. Mucapes do increase
close to 500-1000 j kg by the late afternoon into the early
evening with showalter values of 0 to -3c from the latest gfs.

The evening period looks unsettled with possibly nocturnal
convection with increasing pwats to 1.25-1.75" and potentially
bands of showers and thunderstorms moving across the forecast
area in the Thu night. Much of eastern ny is in a marginal risk
(outside of dutchess co) in day 3. Right now, locations that may
break into the warm sector look to be south of the i-90
corridor. Temps may get into the upper 70s to lower 80s from the
the capital region mohawk valley berkshires and points south,
and mid 60s to mid 70s northward. In the more humid air mass
lows will be in the mid to upper 60s excepts upper 50s to lower
60s over the adirondacks, southern greens and lake george
region.

Long term Friday through Monday
The period starts out on Friday with a diffuse surface boundary over
the region, with increasingly warm and humid conditions.

Southwest zonal flow aloft will allow for a few possible
disturbances to move through, which could fairly easily trigger
diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms given the warm and
humid air mass in place. Early look at instability indicates the
potential for 1000-2000 j kg of SBCAPE with moderate shear so
will have to watch for some potentially stronger storms.

Convection could linger well into the evening, but should weaken
overnight. It will be muggy with lows in the 60s.

Saturday still looking like a day with a better chance for more
widespread and organized convection. A surface cyclone is forecast
to track eastward into central southern quebec, while a series of
surface boundaries moves across our area starting with a pre-frontal
trough Saturday afternoon. The trough will be the focus for numerous
showers and thunderstorms developing, some of which could be strong
to severe. Too early for specifics, but potentially moderate to
large magnitude of instability may develop given sufficient sunshine
early in the day. Any storms will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall as pwats surge to between +1 to +2 stdev above
normal, which is significant for early july. High temperatures will
depend on amount of sunshine, but overall mid to upper 80s seems
reasonable for most valley locations, with high dewpoints in the 65
to 70 degree range making it feel more humid.

Showers and thunderstorms will remain likely Saturday night, as the
system's cold front starts to push through. Still getting good model
consensus on this, with timing in decent agreement as well. The cold
front may not clear the area by Sunday, so additional showers and
storms will be possible, but mainly scattered in coverage and not as
intense as Saturday's potential thunderstorms. It will remain warm,
but with a slight drop in humidity behind the cold front.

We could finally see a more tranquil weather day next Monday, but
with zonal flow and weak troughiness in place, widely scattered
diurnal showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Some low level stratus in lifr range is affecting kgfl kpsf,
although these clouds are expected to dissipate by 12z
otherwise, mainlyVFR conditions expected today after 12z, but
numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop by early
afternoon as a potent upper level disturbance and trough move
through. Brief periods of MVFR or even ifr will be possible with
any convection through early evening. Confidence has increased
enough to mention tempos for tsra from 17z-21z, then decreasing
to prob30 from around 21z-00z. Winds will be gusty in and
around thunderstorms, with small to large hail possible as
well. Showers and storm should end by sunset, as the disturbance
moves east of the area.

Depending on how much rain falls today and how much clearing
can occur tonight, fog development will be possible especially
at kgfl kpsf.

Winds will initially be light and variable early this morning,
becoming south-southwest around 5-10 kt by late morning then
shifting to the west this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
A strong upper level low and a cold front will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms to eastern new york and western new
england today. High pressure will build in from the mid
atlantic region for Wednesday with the best chance of a shower
or isolated thunderstorm north of the capital region and mohawk
valley. A warm front will approach from the ohio valley and
lower great lakes region bringing more showers and a chance of
thunderstorms Thursday into Thursday night.

The rh values will lower to 45 to 70 percent this afternoon and
then recover close to 100 percent tonight. Expect minimum rh
values of 35 to 55 percent on Wednesday.

The winds will from the southwest to northwest at 5 to 15 mph
today. The winds will be from the southwest to west at 10 mph or
less tonight, and then increase from the west to northwest at
10 to 15 mph with some gusts to 25 mph on Wednesday.

Winds will be stronger, and variable in direction in and
near any thunderstorms.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrological problems are anticipated over the
next several days. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
are expected today, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours, as a cold front and upper low impact the region. Basin
average rainfall amounts will generally be a tenth to a third of
an inch in some locations.

A brief period of mainly dry weather is expected most of
Wednesday into Wednesday night with ridging briefly building in from
the south. An active pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend
with showers and thunderstorms possible with increasing humidity
levels. Rainfall amounts will vary based on where any
convection occurs. The most widespread potential rainfall is
expected Thursday and Saturday. Rainfall amounts thu-thu night
may range from a quarter of an inch to an inch with some locally
higher amounts in thunderstorms. The higher totals right now may
be across the northern basins of the hsa.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Wasula
near term... Kl nas wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jpv
aviation... Jpv
fire weather... Kl wasula
hydrology... Kl wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi70 min S 6 G 8 66°F 1015.3 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi64 min SSW 7 G 8 66°F 70°F1016 hPa
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 40 mi112 min 69°F 1014 hPa56°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT15 mi29 minSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F57°F61%1014.9 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT16 mi92 minSSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F55°F64%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from DXR (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW75S6SW8SW6SW6S7--S5CalmN3CalmSW4--------Calm--CalmCalmS7SW6SW9
1 day agoSW6SW6--W8SW8S6S8S8S6CalmN9N3CalmSW3------SW4SW4W66W9W7W9
2 days agoNW10
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NW11W9W8W6SW4SW3CalmW5NW5CalmCalmCalmSW3SW3CalmCalmS3SW6SW55SW9SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:44 AM EDT     5.87 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:23 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:18 AM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:20 PM EDT     5.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:42 PM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.82.44.25.55.95.44.53.32.10.9-0-0.5-0.21.12.84.45.45.34.73.82.71.70.70.1

Tide / Current Tables for Long Hill, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Long Hill
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:54 AM EDT     8.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:53 AM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:30 PM EDT     7.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:13 PM EDT     0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.96.17.88.37.76.34.52.71-0.3-0.70.224.36.37.67.76.85.33.620.700.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.