Sunrise 5:46 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 3:05 AM   Moonset 1:22 PM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1047 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 2 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm. Thu night - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: N 1 ft at 2 seconds. Fri - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Fri night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Sat night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Sun night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Mon - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.

ANZ300 1047 Pm Edt Wed May 1 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A frontal boundary remains in the vicinity tonight, pushing east on Thursday, followed by high pressure Friday into Friday night. The high moves off the coast Saturday as a cold front approaches. This front moves through Sunday night into Monday morning, then stalls south of the region.

FXUS61 KALY 020543 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 143 AM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
Outside of isolated showers north and east of Albany tonight due to a passing disturbance, primarily dry conditions are expected throughout the remainder of the work week. In fact, precipitation chances don't increase again until Saturday afternoon into Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Dry weather will then return for the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/

Update
As of 1:25 AM EDT...Starting to see more showers/thunderstorms across the north country at this time ahead of a potent upper disturbance and associated surface low that will be tracking north of our area overnight into this morning. The cluster of thunderstorms in St. Lawrence County should remain to our north, but a couple thundershowers that developed over Lake Ontario could make it into northern Herkimer County within the next hour or two if they hold together. Main change with this update was to add a slight chance of thunder tonight for portions of the Adirondacks based on trends with the ongoing convection. Otherwise, just minor adjustments to sky/temp/td/wind grids to better align with current obs.
Previous discussion below remains on track and goes into more detail on the forecast through the remainder of the overnight period...

Previous
Forcing will continue to increase overnight for areas mainly north of I-90, so expect periods of clouds to continue, along with isolated to scattered showers, mainly after midnight. A few showers could even extend as far south as the I-90 corridor closer to daybreak.There is some mid level instability/steeper lapse rates noted on upstream soundings, and latest RAP13 suggests Showalter Indices dip as low as 0 to -2 C for areas north of I-90 closer to daybreak, so can not completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder.

Otherwise, low stratus continues to expand north and northwest into southern Litchfield County, and will likely continue to expand/develop northward overnight, possibly reaching portions of the Capital Region, and likely across the Berkshires, Litchfield Hills, mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, and southern VT. Some patchy fog could develop where any breaks in the clouds occur, but clouds are anticipated to increase across much of the area tonight in response to the passage of the disturbance. So, temperatures will fair on the mild side with primarily 50s and some low 40s in higher terrain regions.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/
Upon the passage of the warm front and upper shortwave by tomorrow morning, the parent low will be slow to move away from our overhead, yielding some clouds lingering throughout the day tomorrow, especially for western New England. A weak cold front will swing through the region tomorrow afternoon as the low drifts south and east, but a swift reinforcement of mid-level dry air behind it will ensure another primarily dry day outside of some scattered showers in the Upper-Hudson Valley and portions of western New England. Anticipated breaks of sun, especially in valley areas will allow temperatures to moderate back to the 60s and 70s with some upper 50s expected above 1500 ft.

By tomorrow night, an upper-level ridge will be building in from the west. The amplification of this ridge through Friday will ensure a dry end of the work week with a continuation to above- normal temperatures. Highs Friday will primarily be in the upper 60s with pockets of low 60s at higher elevations and near 70 in valley areas after the cool boundary cools things off slightly.

The axis of the ridge will begin to shift eastward Friday night into Saturday morning as a frontal system approaches from the southwest. Showers look to begin as early as Saturday evening as a surface low tracks towards into the Ohio Valley. Showers will overspread the region from northwest to southeast as upper troughing also pushes eastward into the region. Highs Saturday will be similar to Friday with 60s expected across the region.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Upper level disturbance and surface boundary will be running into the ridge in place for Saturday night into Sunday. As a result, a period of rain showers and cloudy conditions look to occur for Sat night into Sunday (mainly early in the day, based on the latest operational runs). Have gone with fairly high POPs during this time period for the entire area (high chance to likely). Can't rule out some rumbles of thunder across southern areas too, although strong storms are not expected due to limited instability and most of the thunderstorm activity being elevated. Temps will be in the 40s on Sat night and only in the 50s on Sunday with plenty of clouds around.

Some clearing should occur by Monday with ridging building back into the area for early next week. As a result, skies should be partly to mostly sunny for both Monday and Tuesday with valley highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

Another chance for showers may return for Tuesday night into Wednesday as the next system approaches from the west. Temps will continue to be fairly seasonable to somewhat above normal. Because of this, no frost/freeze issues are anticipated through the long term period for locations where the growing season has already begun.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Through 06z Friday...Low pressure will track across northern New England into this morning. An associated cold front will push southeastward across the TAF sites by late this morning.
Until then, tricky forecast with regards to low stratus clouds at KALB/KPOU/KPSF and possible fog at KGFL. Satellite imagery shows stratus clouds very close to KPOU/KPSF at this time and slowly expanding north/west. So will mention TEMPO for IFR cigs until around 08z at these sites, then prevailing IFR cigs through 12z. Lower confidence in low clouds making it to KALB, so will just include a TEMPO for a few hours from 08z-10z. Mid level clouds clearing at KGFL for the next few hours. If winds go calm for any duration, fog development is likely with very low dewpoint depression. So will mention a TEMPO for IFR conditions associated with fog there from around 06z-09z prior to mid level clouds increasing again after that time.

Low level clouds will scour out once the cold front pushes through between around 15z-16z, with VFR conditions returning.
VFR should then prevail through the rest of the TAF period ending 06z Friday.

Winds will be mainly southerly around 4-12 kt with some gusts near 20 kt at KALB through the early morning hours. Winds will shift to the northwest behind the cold front by late this morning, with speeds increasing to 10-15 kt and gusts around 20-25 kt developing.

Outlook...

Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Sunday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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