Tuesday, December18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Milford, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:26PM Tuesday December 18, 2018 10:03 PM EST (03:03 UTC) Moonrise 2:53PMMoonset 3:22AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 956 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Overnight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft after midnight. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less. Showers likely, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 956 Pm Est Tue Dec 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure slowly builds in across the area into Wednesday and shifts into the western atlantic Wednesday night. Low pressure slowly moves through the area Thursday into Friday night, before departing to the northeast on Saturday. High pressure then builds to the south while weak low pressure moves across the great lakes and slowly approaches the area into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Milford, CT
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location: 41.58, -73.41     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 182329
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
629 pm est Tue dec 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will move over the northeast and mid
atlantic states tonight with mostly clear skies, diminishing winds
and cold conditions. The surface high will shift east of the mid
atlantic region tomorrow into Thursday with moderating temperatures
to normal to above normal readings and fair weather. A storm system
approaching from the southeast and mid atlantic states will bring
periods of rain, potentially heavy, mild temperatures and breezy
conditions Thursday night through Friday.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
As of 630 pm, minor adjustments to the sky grids based on
current satellite observations of mostly cloudy skies over the
western adirondacks and western mohawk valley. These clouds may
hang on a bit into the first part of the night but should
diminish by the wee hours of the morning.

Previous discussion...

as of 430 pm est... High pressure will continue to build in from
the lower great lakes region over ny and new england tonight.

The mid and upper level trough that impacted the forecast area
the past few days will move downstream, as mid and upper level
heights will start to rise.

As the sfc high builds in tonight, expect the skies to be clear
or mostly clear with the winds diminishing quickly, as the sfc
pressure gradient weakens between low pressure near labrador,
and the sfc high settling in over pa and the mid atlantic
states. A dry low-level air mass, light to calm winds coupled
with mostly clear skies, except for a few clouds downwind of the
tug hill plateau will allow for near ideal radiational cooling
conditions. Lows will fall into the single digits across
portions of the lake george saratoga region, northern taconics,
southern adirondacks, southern vt, northern berkshires, and
eastern catskills. Lower to mid teens will prevail in the
capital district, most of the mohawk valley, mid hudson valley,
and the central and southern taconics into NW ct.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Friday
Tomorrow... Fair and tranquil conditions continue, as the sfc
high builds in from the mid atlantic states. Low and mid level
heights continue to rise. Low and mid level warm advection
begins across the region. The winds will be light from the
south southeast with partly to mostly sunny conditions. Some mid
to high level clouds may move in across the region from the
i-90 corridor north with the warm advection. Highs will be in
the upper 20s to lower 30s over the mtns with mid to upper 30s
across the hills and mtns.

Wed night... The sfc high shifts east of the DELMARVA region, as
ridging continues to build in over the northeast. If the winds
decouple with mostly clear cloudy skies, then temps could
plummet again, and we went closer to the cooler side of the
guidance with mid teens to lower 20s across the region. As the
ridging is building along the east coast, a full-latitude,
highly amplified mid and upper trough will be moving out of the
central CONUS with a complex storm system impacting the
southeast and fl.

Thursday... This will be our last of fair weather, as mid and
high clouds will begin to stream in from the south and west with
a southwesterly flow prevailing aloft ahead of the potent storm
system approaching. Some early sunshine will diminish quickly,
as the south to southwest flow of milder air will increase
across the region. High pressure will be well to the east in the
north atlantic, as a frontal boundary will be along the east
coast ahead of the complex storm system. H850 temps increase to
+4c to +6c with the latest GEFS h850 temp anomalies +1 to +2
std devs above normal. The latest ec nam GFS cmc all have some
warm advection light rain or showers grazing the southeast
catskills, and the mid hudson valley in the late pm early
evening, so we placed a slight to low chance of pops there.

Highs will nudge above normal with upper 30s to mid 40s across
the region.

Thu night into Friday... A significant storm system will impact
the forecast area with moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty east to
southeast winds, and possibly a potential risk of some flooding
due to heavy rain, and snow melt.

Thursday night, a deep fetch of tropical moisture begins to move
into the region with an anomalous low-level jet that increases
to 40-50+ kts at 850 hpa. This moisture will be focused by a
warm front lifting northeast from the mid atlantic states, as a
strong sfc wave organizes near the southern appalachians. A
strong low-level wind anomaly will impact the region with the
12z GEFS showing a -u wind anomaly easterlies of -2 to -4 std
devs above normal, and a +v-anomaly southerlies of +2 to +4
std devs above normal between 06z-12z fri. A strong east-
southeast low-level jet will advect in the tropical and
atlantic moisture in a mid an upper level diffluent region.

Pwats surge +3 to +4 std devs above normal with h850 moisture
flux +2 to +4 std devs above normal. The 12z GEFS have the
greatest low-level wind anomaly and moisture flux over long
island and southeast new england this run. We used a non-diurnal
trend in temps Thu night with the increasing south southeast
flow. Pops were increased to categorical values between 06z-12z.

A brief period of freezing rain is possible in the sheltered
elevated valleys of the eastern adirondacks,and the lake george
region, but with no sfc high to lock in the low-level cold air,
temps should rise into the mid 30s to lower 40s overnight with
lows initially in the 30s. The increasing southeast winds may
yield some wind issues especially late Thu night into early
Friday along the western new england higher terrain and taconics.

We will continue mention in the hwo.

Friday late morning into the afternoon the h850 S SW low-level
jet increases further into the 50-70 kt range and the periods of
rain will continue. The question will be if the atmospheric
river of deep water vapor transport shifts east of the region
quickly in the late morning, and if the forecast area will get
dry slotted. The latest 12z gfs, some of the ensembles and to an
extent the 12z ECMWF hint at this possibly with the sfc wave
moving northeast along the spine of appalachian mtns to pa late
in the day with the h500 circulation to the full-latitude mid
and upper level trough lagging over the carolinas. Periods of
rain should continue in the morning into at least the early mid
pm. Some of the latest mmefs members hint at minor flooding from
some pts form the capital region, western new england south and
east. Total QPF ranges from around an inch over the western
adirondacks to 2+ inches over the southern basins including the
housatonic, and with the east southeast winds the eastern
catskills could get more than a few inches. Also, some snow
melt will occur from the higher terrain. A flood watch may be
needed later in the time. Temps surge into the mid and upper 40s
north and west of the capital region, and lower to mid 50s
south east.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Medium-range deterministic models and GEFS members are in
fairly good agreement in the big picture this weekend into
christmas day. Friday night, consensus shows the deeper moisture
and greatest low- level jet magnitude shifts to the east, but
still likely enough remaining moisture and forcing as the trough
axis swings through to support numerous to widespread rain
showers. Cold advection for Saturday as the surface front passes
will likely result in temperatures falling through the day
along with blustery conditions. Coverage of showers will be on
the decrease, except for some upslope lake effect showers which
will be turning to snow.

For the remainder of the period, model consensus supports an upper
level trough taking shape over south-central southeastern canada. To
its south, one or more low-amplitude disturbances are expected to
zip through the quasi-zonal mean flow. This pattern, along with a
large high pressure system over the southeastern us, does not appear
favorable for any organized widespread storm systems to impact the
local area through christmas. It appears that temperatures will ease
their way back toward normal values by christmas day with hudson
valley highs in the mid to upper 30s and lows in the 20s. Depending
on the alignment of the low-level winds, we could see additional
periods of lake effect snow especially Monday into christmas eve as
depicted by the 12z.18 gfs. The 12z.18 ECMWF shows a quick-moving
shortwave that could produce more widespread although light snow
Sunday night into Monday morning, with just a few GEFS members
showing this scenario.

Aviation 00z Wednesday through Sunday
Vfr conditions expected to continue through the TAF period as
high pressure builds in. Just a fewVFR-level stratus around
kalb kpsf with more extensive cloud cover toward krme ksyr.

Currently it is not anticipated that these clouds will make it
to the local terminals. Some high level cirrus may increase
late tonight.

West to northwest winds remain at 10 to 15 kt early this
evening, but should gradually diminish through the night. Winds
will become light from the south by Wednesday morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Friday: high operational impact. Definite ra.

Friday night: high operational impact. Likely shra.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Breezy chance of shra.

Saturday night: slight chance of shsn.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Hydrology
No hydro problems are expected prior to Thursday with dry
weather across the region. Some hydro issues may occur Thursday
night through the early weekend with a significant storm system.

Temperatures will be very cold tonight, allowing ice to form,
thicken and strengthen on area rivers,creeks, lakes and ponds.

Temperatures will start to moderate for Wednesday into
Thursday, although overnight lows on Wednesday night will
continue to be fairly cold and fall below freezing.

A storm system will bring a widespread steady, soaking rainfall
to the region for Thursday night through Friday. There is still
some uncertainty regarding exact amounts, but current guidance
forecasts indicate 1 to 2.5 inches of rain is possible with
some locally higher amounts, especially along the east southeast
slopes of the higher terrain. The milder temperatures will also
allow for some snow melt. The snow pack is the greatest across
the southern adirondacks, southern greens, and northern
berkshires. Strong southeast winds could also erode some of the
snow pack.

The latest mmefs guidance and some of the experimental hefs
have some river pts get to minor flood stage with the
combination of the runoff from the rainfall and the snow melt.

The locations are variable, but it seems the trend is from the
capital region, southern vt and the eastern catskills south east
into the housatonic basin that will need to be carefully
monitored.

At the very least some poor drainage flooding of low-lying
areas, and ponding of water is likely. A flood watch may be
needed later in time, if confidence increases for the potential
of widespread minor flooding. The latest nerfc forecasts do
indicate some tidal flooding is possible for the poughkeepsie
gauge on Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Snd wasula
near term... Thompson wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Thompson
aviation... Thompson
hydrology... Frugis wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 31 mi40 min NW 5.1 G 7 28°F 43°F1019.6 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 34 mi34 min N 9.9 G 15 27°F 44°F1019.9 hPa
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 40 mi34 min 22°F 1022 hPa14°F
TKPN6 41 mi34 min N 6 G 8.9 23°F 33°F14°F
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 44 mi74 min WNW 18 G 23 30°F 1 ft17°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Danbury, Danbury Municipal Airport, CT15 mi71 minVar 510.00 miFair24°F12°F60%1020.5 hPa
Oxford, Waterbury-Oxford Airport, CT16 mi73 minNW 710.00 miFair22°F12°F66%1021.5 hPa

Wind History from DXR (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Shelton, Housatonic River, Connecticut
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Shelton
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Tue -- 02:20 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 03:35 AM EST     0.45 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:39 AM EST     5.18 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:52 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:13 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:24 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:05 PM EST     4.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.50.90.50.51.42.74.155.24.8432.11.30.60.30.61.734.24.74.53.9

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:24 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 02:41 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:16 AM EST     2.76 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:55 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 03:22 PM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 08:43 PM EST     2.53 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.50.30.20.61.42.22.62.72.72.41.91.40.90.60.30.411.72.22.52.52.31.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.