Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wappingers Falls, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:56PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 12:37 PM EDT (16:37 UTC) Moonrise 6:56AMMoonset 7:29PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1222 Pm Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1222 Pm Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical cyclone jose well southeast of Montauk point will move slowly to the northeast through tonight and meanders offshore on Thursday. High pressure builds to the north and west on Thursday, remaining in place through early next week as jose weakens and slowly meanders to the southeast. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on jose.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wappingers Falls, NY
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location: 41.58, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 201431
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1031 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is expected into
next week as high pressure dominates.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Cirrus, dense at times, from tropical storm jose is moving
across the eastern 1 2 of the CWA this morning. Models suggest
that a fairly dense cirrus canopy should be in place across this
same area through the day. Thus tweaked cloud cover for later in
the day to keep skies more on the cloudy side.

Temperatures are tracking closely to forecasts. So, despite
dense cirrus not of a mind to lower MAX temps.

As far as tropical storm jose goes, the storm continues to move
northeast at around 7 mph. This general motion is expected to
continue today with a decrease in forward speed along with
gradual weakening. Please refer to the national hurricane center
for forecast and other details on jose. Again, no impacts in our
area from jose.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
The ridge over the eastern united states strengthens at all
levels of the atmosphere and will result in fair and continued
warm weather for the area. Tropical storm jose will meander off
the east coast and continue to weaken. Please refer to the
national hurricane center for forecast and other details.

It will not be a muggy humid as dew points gradually drop
eventually into the mid 40s to mid 50s. This will result in
cooler nights compared to recent ones.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
Highly amplified flow pattern during the long term featuring a full-
latitude trough over the western third of the country and
anomalously strong ridge centered over the central and eastern great
lakes and northeastern us. Per the latest gefs, this ridge is
forecast to be +1 to +2 sd at h500. As a result, expecting
temperatures to run significantly above normal, with h850 temps
averaging around 15-18c. This should lead to high temps in the 80s
in the valleys, possibly approaching 90 in the warmest spots by
Sunday. Dewpoints are forecast to rise into the 60s Sunday into
Tuesday, so it'll feel quite summer-y. The moisture will also allow
low temps to be well above normal values which are mainly in the
40s.

The only fly in the ointment for the above scenario has to do with
tropical cyclone activity. By the long term period, jose will be
post-tropical and likely continuing to weaken, but there is still
uncertainty with its path. There are a non-trivial number of
solutions that drift post-tc jose back westward as the ridge builds,
which could lead to increasing cloud cover and perhaps even showers
over southern portions of the forecast area Sunday onward. However,
will continue to keep the forecast dry and mainly sunny as even if a
westward drift occurs, it may be too far south to impact our
forecast area. Finally, will have to keep an eye on TC maria toward
the end of the period as it moves poleward in the vicinity of 75w.

Still large model spread in both speed and track, with consensus
keeping its impacts south of the forecast area through the long
term.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
MainlyVFR expected for the majority of the TAF period as jose
continues to drift northeastward and the terminals remain on its
periphery. Kpsf may see MVFR linger a bit longer into the
afternoon. Tonight, still enough influence from jose in terms of
cloud cover and light northerly breeze to keep fog at bay,
except perhaps at kgfl which is furthest removed.

Winds will be from the north to northeast through the period.

Speeds will increase to around 10 kt during the daylight hours
with some gusts to around 20 kt at kpsf kpou closer to jose's
circulation. Speeds will decrease to less than 10 kt tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday through Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is expected into
next week as high pressure dominates.

Minimum relative humidity values will only be in the upper 50s
to upper 60s this afternoon with higher values across western
new england. A recovery to 90 to near 100 percent will occur
tonight. Minimums are expected to be in the 50s Thursday
afternoon.

Winds will be out of the north to northeast at 10 to 15 mph with
gusts into the 20s today for areas south and east of the capital
district with lighter speed to the north and west. Winds will
not be as strong Thursday.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrologic impacts are expected. An extended
stretch of fair and warm weather is expected into next week as
high pressure dominates.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa
near term... Iaa okeefe
short term... Iaa
long term... Thompson
aviation... Thompson
fire weather... Iaa
hydrology... Iaa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 30 mi68 min 81°F 1013 hPa72°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 49 mi56 min N 15 G 24 76°F 72°F1010.1 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi45 minN 9 G 1610.00 miOvercast74°F63°F69%1012.7 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi1.9 hrsNNE 13 G 2120.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F66°F78%1014.2 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi44 minNNE 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast76°F64°F69%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE10NE12
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N14NE12NE9NE9NE8N6N6N4N4N5N7N5N5N6N7N6N8N10N9N8N8N9
G16
1 day agoE9SE4E7E7E6SE7SE6E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N4N4N5N8N8N9N11
2 days agoCalm3CalmCalmS6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalm3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:36 AM EDT     3.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:26 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:05 PM EDT     3.63 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:44 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.63.63.32.51.710.3-0.2-0.10.61.72.63.33.63.42.821.30.60-0.10.51.52.5

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 12:18 AM EDT     3.51 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 06:41 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:02 AM EDT     -0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 12:48 PM EDT     3.49 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:20 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:29 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.53.42.92.21.40.70-0.30.10.91.92.83.33.53.22.51.710.3-0.100.81.82.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.