Sunday, August19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marlboro, NY

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Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 7:50PM Sunday August 19, 2018 12:05 AM EDT (04:05 UTC) Moonrise 3:03PMMoonset 12:22AM Illumination 52% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1037 Pm Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Overnight..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft. Slight chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wed..SW winds around 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1037 Pm Edt Sat Aug 18 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will sag south of long island this tonight. The front will continue to slowly sink farther south of long island through early next weak as a series of weak low pressure waves travel along the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, a high pressure ridge will extend southwest from new england Monday into Tuesday while weak low pressure passes to the south. A cold front will move across on Wednesday, followed by high pressure to close the week.


7 Day Forecast for Oyster Bay
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location: 40.865, -73.527     debug


7 Day Forecast for Selected point near Huntington Station CDP, NY
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location: 40.836, -73.4     


Area Discussion for - New York City/Upton, NY
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Fxus61 kokx 190314
afdokx
area forecast discussion
national weather service new york ny
1114 pm edt Sat aug 18 2018

Synopsis
A cold front will continue to slowly sink south of long island
through early next weak as a series of weak low pressure waves
travel along the frontal boundary. Meanwhile, a high pressure
ridge will extend southwest from new england Monday into Tuesday
while weak low pressure passes to the south. A cold front will
move across on Wednesday, followed by high pressure to close the
week.

Near term until 6 am Sunday morning
The cold front has pushed south of the area, and along with it
the convection. Therefore, have taken any mention of thunder
out. Most recent guidance has the tri-state mainly dry,
however, there is an area of showers over central new
jersey. Therefore, went with just a chance for showers mainly
for long island, new york city, and portions of northeast new
jersey, with slight chance north of these areas.

A weak shortwave trough, axis over central ny, will remain
fairly stationary into tonight. At the surface, a weak frontal
boundary gust front is pushing south of long island as of 730
pm, with a broken line of showers and thunderstorms pushing
offshore.

There is a low potential that locally heavy shower and embedded
thunderstorm activity could re-develop late tonight into sun
morning across LI nyc (along elevated instability gradient) as
trough axis approaches and weak low pressure tracks south of the
region.

A bit cooler and drier air works into the region late tonight
with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

There is allow to moderate risk of rip current development into
this evening due to 3 ft southerly wind waves.

Short term 6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night
The weak upper trough axis will slowly slide east across the
region Sunday into Sunday night. Meanwhile at the surface, the
cold front to the south of LI will continue to slowly sink
farther south, as canadian maritimes high pressure builds down
through new england.

Morning shower activity, particularly across nj, nyc and li,
should gradually push south from north to south in the afternoon
as the front sinks farther south. There is low potential that
this activity could be locally heavy with embedded thunderstorms
(along elevated instability gradient) as trough axis approaches
and weak low pressure tracks south of the region.

Otherwise, considerable cloud cover is expected on Sunday with
the upper trough moving through and low- level inversion in the
canadian maritimes NE flow regime. With abundant cloud cover
and breezy maritime NE flow (gusts 20 to 25 mph along the coast)
on Sunday it will be comparatively chilly compared to the last
several weeks, with temperatures running several degrees below
normal on Sunday, generally lower to mid 70s.

Canadian maritimes high pressure will remain in control Sunday
night, with generally dry and seasonably mild conditions, but
stratus likely remaining stubborn across much of the region.

There is a moderate to high risk of rip current longshore
current development on Sunday, due to 5 ft easterly wind wave
combined with 2 ft southerly swells.

Long term Monday through Saturday
Dur to the proximity of sfc low pressure just south and a weak upper
low moving across, will hold onto slight chance pop Mon morning,
also slight to low chance pop on tue. With the approach passage of a
more significant upper trough and associated cold Tue night into
wed, will see likely pop late Tue night and possibly into wed
morning. See hydrology section for further details, as there could
be some urban and flash flood potential, impacting the Wed am rush
if current model timing holds.

With mid level confluence behind this departing trough on Thu and
then ridging aloft Fri into sat, sfc high pressure should then
follow, with a noticeably drier air mass moving in on Thu with
dewpoints in the 50s and remaining into Saturday.

Except for Tue night Wed when temps may be a few deg above avg,
expect temps right near seasonal averages.

Aviation 03z Sunday through Thursday
Generally,VFR through about 07z with n-ne winds. Thereafter,
MVFR CIGS move in on the NE flow and will linger into Sunday
afternoon. Some terminals could see stratus move in earlier,
such as klga and kbdr as they were reporting MVFR CIGS as of
03z.

An area of showers is approaching the city terminals
from central new jersey, but they are weakening as they
approach. No thunder is associated with these showers.

N-ne winds are expected tonight into Sunday, with sustained
winds of 15 kt or lower.

Outlook for 00z Monday through Thursday
Sun night-tue Vfr.

Tue night-wed Chance of shower TSTM with MVFR conds.

Thu Vfr.

Marine
Winds and seas remain below SCA levels through midnight across
the forecast waters as a weak cold front moves through, but any
showers and thunderstorms moving across the waters will be
capable of producing gale wind gusts and reduced visibilities
in heavy rain.

Ne gradient tightens tonight in wake of cold front, with sca
conditions expected to develop on the ocean waters, E LI sound,
and peconic and gardiners bays late tonight and continue
through Sunday. Marginal SCA wind gusts are likely for the
remainder of near shore waters.

Then, sub-sca conditions are expected for all the forecast
waters early into the middle of next week but there is a
possibility the SCA seas could linger into Monday for the ocean.

Ocean seas could reach SCA criteria again Wednesday night into
Thursday.

Ocean seas out east may build to SCA levels of at least 5 ft on wed
ahead of an approaching cold front. These elevated seas may linger
into Wed night.

Hydrology
Flash flood threat has ended for this evening.

There is a low potential for minor urban and poor drainage
flooding late tonight into Sunday morning across nyc LI with
some guidance indicating heavy showers and perhaps embedded
thunderstorms developing along an elevated instability gradient
to the north of a surface low.

Tuesday night into Wednesday... Showers tstms with heavy rain
may be possible with a passing frontal system. With low areal
ffg especially over NE nj, pw increasing to well over 2 inches,
and deep layer SW flow indicative of potential training of
cells, there is some urban and flash flood potential in this
time frame from nyc north west.

Equipment
Nyc NOAA weather radio station kwo-35 (162.55 mhz) remains off
the air for an extended period of time.

Okx watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Nj... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for anz350-353-355.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for anz330-340.

Synopsis... Goodman nv
near term... Jp nv
short term... Nv
long term... Goodman
aviation... Jp
marine... Goodman nv
hydrology... Jm nv
equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 7 mi45 min N 14 G 16 72°F 67°F
44022 - Execution Rocks 11 mi35 min N 12 G 16 76°F
KPTN6 - 8516945 - Kings Point, NY 13 mi35 min NE 11 G 13 72°F 76°F1011.8 hPa
44069 26 mi80 min N 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 82°F74°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 28 mi41 min NNE 8.9 G 12 72°F 77°F1010.6 hPa
BATN6 - 8518750 - The Battery, NY 28 mi35 min 73°F 78°F1011.5 hPa
ROBN4 - 8530973 - Robins Reef, NJ 32 mi35 min NNE 17 G 19 73°F 1011.2 hPa
44065 - Entrance to New York Harbor 36 mi25 min N 7.8 G 12 75°F 77°F1010.1 hPa72°F
BGNN4 - 8519483 - Bergen Point West Reach, NJ 36 mi35 min 73°F 78°F1011 hPa
MHRN6 37 mi35 min N 13 G 17
SDHN4 - 8531680 - Sandy Hook, NJ 38 mi35 min NE 5.1 G 8 75°F 80°F1011.7 hPa
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 44 mi35 min NNE 11 G 14 71°F 81°F1011 hPa
44025 - LONG ISLAND 33 NM South of Islip, NY 47 mi75 min N 12 G 14 76°F 77°F3 ft1009.9 hPa (+1.1)
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 82 mi35 min 66°F 1012 hPa62°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi72 minN 510.00 miOvercast68°F61°F78%1011.5 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY9 mi80 minNNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F64°F88%1012.5 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY17 mi71 minNE 910.00 miOvercast68°F61°F78%1011.9 hPa

Wind History from LGA (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for New Hamburg, Hudson River, New York
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New Hamburg
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:22 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 02:01 AM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:29 AM EDT     2.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:16 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:01 PM EDT     3.13 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.80.60.81.41.92.42.72.72.41.91.41.10.80.60.71.31.92.52.93.132.62.1

Tide / Current Tables for Newburgh, Hudson River, New York
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Newburgh
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sun -- 12:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:38 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:10 AM EDT     2.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:51 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 07:42 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.60.611.522.42.62.52.11.71.310.70.60.81.42.12.6332.82.31.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for New York City/Upton, NY (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.