Sunrise 6:04 AM   Sunset 8:40 PM Moonrise 11:58 AM   Moonset 1:43 AM

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LEZ146 Expires:202405150815;;224819 Fzus51 Kcle 150117 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 917 pm edt Tue may 14 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez144>146-150815- the islands to vermilion oh-vermilion to avon point oh- avon point to willowick oh- 917 pm edt Tue may 14 2024
Rest of tonight - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late this evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Wednesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the morning, then a chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 62 degrees, off cleveland 52 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 151040 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 640 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will slowly move east across the area today as low pressure tracks east across the Ohio River Valley and off the Mid- Atlantic Coast tonight. High pressure returns for Thursday. Another low pressure system will impact the area late this week, moving a warm front north on Friday followed by a cold front east late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/
630 AM Update...
Showers this morning have finally arrived across the south central portion of the CWA and are gradually spreading north.
Adjusted the timing and location of PoPs to reflect this and delayed the onset of any precipitation a bit more for the eastern counties. Unfortunately with this slow moving system clouds will linger throughout the day. Aside from these minor adjustments, no other changes were needed with this update.

Previous Discussion...
A surface low centered over southern IL/IN will continue to drift east today as an upper level trough allows the system to be a bit more progressive. With this, a near stationary boundary over NW OH will also become progressive and move east across the area as a weak cold front. Overall synoptic and mesoscale forcing continues to remain very weak allowing for only isolated, light showers to occur this morning and into the early afternoon. Ahead of the boundary this afternoon, models suggest a nose of increased instability pushing north over the eastern portion of the CWA which should provide additional support for shower development ahead of the the departing boundary this afternoon into the early evening. There remains a slight chance of thunder, but no severe weather is expected. By tonight, high pressure will build over the area and allow for any lingering showers to diminish from west to east. This high will remain dominant through Thursday.

Highs today will reach into the upper 60s to low 70s before warming a bit on Thursday into the mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Isentropic lift will increase Thursday night as a warm front moves across the region into early Friday. The entire region should be in the warm sector by Friday afternoon with showers and thunderstorms possible. We are concerned that we are setting ourselves up to a similar scenario to what is currently going on over OH early this morning with only scattered coverage for the most part. However we will go with likely POP's for now and adjust from there over the next couple days. A weakening cold front sags southward across the region Friday night into Saturday as low pressure move eastward near the Ohio Valley. So expect to see rain chances through Saturday night but it doesnt look like much more than scattered coverage.
Maybe slightly higher chances across the southern half of the CWA near the weak frontal boundary. Above average temperatures are expected through the short term period.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Models are differing on the timing of some weak pieces of jet energy that look to ride the north side of an upper level ridge that should build overhead. Not overly confident in shower/thunderstorm chances.
However there is enough of a signal to at least mention them in the forecast. Isolated to scattered in coverage if they end up forming at all. Temperatures become more summer-like in the long term period, especially Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /12Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Low pressure entering the Ohio River Valley has pushed light rain showers north into the southern portion of the area, bringing with it diminishing conditions from VFR to MVFR and even dipping into IFR at various terminals. The general trend will be for these conditions to push across the remainder of the terminals this morning with low ceilings being the primary driver of diminished conditions. As the aforementioned low pressure continues to move east, a cold front will push east across the area aiding in shower development. The best chance of more widespread precipitation with a chance of thunder will be ahead of this boundary this afternoon when diurnal instability peaks. Have included the mentioned of VCTS or TSRA in terminals along and east of I71. Behind the boundary, conditions this afternoon will rebound to VFR but lingering moisture will reintroduce MVFR conditions tonight as light and variable winds coupled with moisture may result in patchy fog development.

Winds through the period will persist out of the northeast at 5-12 knots before becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook...Non-VFR possible showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Saturday.

MARINE
Northerly winds in the wake of a weakening cold front will occur on the lake today. Speeds shouldn't exceed 15 knots. So it will be difficult to build waves beyond 3 feet. At this point a small craft advisory is not anticipated, although it likely becomes choppy in the nearshore waters. The lake is impacted by another weakening storm system Thursday night through Saturday. Winds return to the south ahead of a cold front on Friday but speeds should remain under 12 knots. A weakening cold front sags southward across the lake Friday night which will help to direct low pressure across southern OH on Saturday. The main impact on the lake will be to turn winds to the east and northeast Saturday into Saturday night. However wind speeds should be under 15 knots so no small craft advisories are anticipated.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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