Sunday, December16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
La Porte, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 4:19PM Sunday December 16, 2018 8:22 PM CST (02:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:51PMMoonset 1:13AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ046 Michigan City In To New Buffalo Mi- 329 Pm Est Sun Dec 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am est Monday through Monday evening...
Tonight..West wind around 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 20 knots overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 6 feet overnight.
Monday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 6 feet.
Monday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering east after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet after midnight.
Tuesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet. The water temperature off michigan city is 37 degrees...and 38 degrees off st. Joseph.
LMZ046 Expires:201812170515;;894886 FZUS53 KIWX 162029 NSHIWX Nearshore Marine Forecast for Indiana National Weather Service Northern Indiana 329 PM EST Sun Dec 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ046-170515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near La Porte, IN
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location: 41.59, -86.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Northern Indiana, IN
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Fxus63 kiwx 162341
afdiwx
area forecast discussion
national weather service northern indiana
641 pm est Sun dec 16 2018

Synopsis
Issued at 100 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
clear to partly cloudy skies are expected tonight. A cold front
will drop across the region late tonight into early Monday
bringing colder conditions for Monday with highs from 35 to 40. A
quiet weather pattern will be in store for tonight through
Wednesday. A storm system will bring good chances of rainfall from
late Wednesday night through Friday, with snow likely mixing in
on Friday before precipitation tapers Friday evening. High
temperatures will warm into the mid and upper 40s by Thursday, but
cool down back into the 30s behind this system for next weekend.

Short term (this evening through Monday)
issued at 301 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
a quiet forecast period will be shaping up for the short term and
into the long term before next large scale system brings rain to
the area late Wednesday night and Thursday.

Stubborn low clouds fog across mainly southern lower michigan have
diminished. Another area of low clouds is also exiting far
northwest ohio in association with departing deformation forcing.

This will leave the area mostly clear tonight with just some
passing high clouds as weak moisture starved vort MAX pushes
across the area from the western great lakes. Stronger forcing
tonight will be in association with strong vort lobe dropping
southeast across the northern great lakes, and eventually into new
england on Monday. Main impact for local area with this feature
will be southeast advancement of sfc trough cold front toward
Monday morning. Deeper mixing in association with this cold
advection on Monday should high temps at or just above normal in
the 35 to 40 degree range as core of low thermal trough remains
east of the area. Steeper low level lapse rates on Monday should
yield some stratocu particularly northeast half of the area, but
suspect most locations should see a good deal of sunshine. Quiet
weather continues Monday night which should be one of the colder
nights of this period as local area becomes positioned in
mid upper level inflection zone with weak thermal advection.

Long term (Monday night through Sunday)
issued at 301 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
by Tuesday, upper level ridging will progress across the western
great lakes downstream of cut-off upper trough meandering across
the southern plains. This feature will lift northeast and tend to
dampen into Wednesday, but will mark initial more substantial
warm moist advection. The residing low level air mass will be very
dry, so passage of this wave and advective forcing will likely
only serve in some top-down saturation with increasing cloud
cover.

Of greater note for our region, will be strong eastern pacific jet
carving out a more substantial negative height anomaly across
lower ms valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Deterministic
guidance still exhibiting quite a bit of spread in details
regarding timing track, but have overall agreed in general
amplification trend of this wave for the past several runs. Ec
remains on the slower side with greater southward digging, with
gefs mean generally a compromise between faster farther north gfs
and slower ec. Given strong jet digging through this trough and
amplitude of system, would suspect slightly slower than GFS idea
would make sense. In any event, precip will be mainly in the form
of rain late Wednesday night into most of Thursday night with
better chance of transition to a rain snow mix by later Thursday
night into Friday. Main sensitivity of these different solutions
is extent of northward moisture advection and rain amounts. Still
not expecting significant travel impacts at this time with
potential wintry mix portion of this system late Thursday
night Friday. A return to colder temps again for next weekend,
but medium range guidance suggests this could be fairly short
lived.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Monday evening)
issued at 639 pm est Sun dec 16 2018
vfr conditions through forecast period. Fog formation is not
expected to affect the TAF locations. Shortwave trof sweeping
across central mi with an associated cold front pushing through
northern indiana will create wind shift, increase in winds and
cu sc formation mid morning through early afternoon.

Iwx watches warnings advisories
In... None.

Mi... None.

Oh... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 3 am to 7 pm est Monday for lmz043-046.

Synopsis... Marsili
short term... Marsili
long term... Marsili
aviation... Lewis
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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 14 mi33 min SW 15 G 15 40°F 35°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 23 mi43 min WSW 6 G 7 41°F 1019.3 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 37 mi83 min SW 6 G 7 40°F 1019 hPa (+1.7)
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 45 mi35 min WSW 5.1 G 8.9 40°F 1018.5 hPa35°F
JAKI2 48 mi143 min W 5.1 G 8.9 43°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Michigan City Municipal Airport, IN10 mi28 minW 410.00 miFair37°F32°F81%1019 hPa
Starke County Airport, IN18 mi48 minW 610.00 miFair36°F32°F87%1019 hPa
Valparaiso Porter County Municipal Airport, IN19 mi27 minWSW 610.00 miFair36°F28°F76%1019.8 hPa
South Bend International Airport, IN22 mi29 minSW 45.00 miFog/Mist31°F28°F92%1019.4 hPa

Wind History from MGC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5W8W6W4SW5W3W4W4W4W4
1 day agoNE6N8CalmCalmCalmN3NE3CalmNE4NE3NE3NE3NE4NE7E5NE6NE6N4N3NE3CalmN4N3Calm
2 days agoSE4CalmCalmCalm--CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3NE3E3N5N7N4N6NE4N9N8NE5NE5N4NE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Northern Indiana, IN (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Northern Indiana, IN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.