Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mashpee Neck, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:46PM Monday January 22, 2018 2:57 PM EST (19:57 UTC) Moonrise 11:05AMMoonset 11:21PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 116 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
.gale warning in effect from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening...
This afternoon..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers with patchy drizzle. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with patchy drizzle. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..S winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue night..SW winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Est Mon Jan 22 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will pass well W of the region late today. As a warm front passes N of the waters, rain will fall heavily at times with gusty south to southeast winds late tonight through Tue. A cold front will pass across the waters Wed as winds shift to W to nw. Winds will remain gusty Wed and Thu as large high pres builds toward the waters. The high will crest over the waters on Fri shifting east of the waters on Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mashpee Neck, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.44     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221940
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
240 pm est Mon jan 22 2018

Synopsis
Some light precipitation is expected today and tonight. Most of it
will be rain, but light icing is likely over interior high terrain
especially tonight into early Tuesday. A fast moving storm system
will bring a period of heavy rain to the region Tuesday along with
strong winds across SE new england. Blustery, dry and colder weather
follows Wednesday through Friday, then a warming trend next weekend.

A cold front may bring showers next Sunday or Monday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
145 pm update...

we have issued a dense fog advisory for the high terrain of
interior southern new england. Looks like a classic situation
with light moist low level northeast flow... Where visibility
will be reduced to one quarter of a mile at times tonight and may
persist into mid morning Tuesday. We may need to expand this
dense fog advisory further based on some support from
guidance... But wanted to start with the area that we were most
confident.

The rest of the region was covered with areas of fog and
drizzle. Temps hanging around 32 across portions of the high
terrain of interior ma... So some untreated roads walkways may
remain icy. Also... We are watching parts of northeast ma for the
expansion of the winter weather advisory. Portsmouth nh dropped
from 37 to 32 between 16z and 18z... Which is always a sign of
concern for northeast ma.

Other than spotty drizzle there was not much going on right now.

However... High resolution guidance shows another band of showers
moving across the region early this evening. This could be
problematic for portions of interior ma.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Tonight...

a stalled front near or just N of the region will not move much
tonight as the low moves into the western great lakes. With the
colder air sitting across northern new england, noting the cold
air damming signature becoming better established tonight,
especially across N central and NW mass. The bulk of the precip
will shift into northern new england, but will still see more
spotty light precip linger across the region. With the cold air
in place, and milder air working in aloft, will see periods of
light freezing rain continue. As mentioned above, the winter
weather advisory remains in effect from N worcester county
westward through the night. May see up to 0.1" ice accretion
across portions of the route 2 corridor mainly W of the
merrimack valley, where the best chance for freezing rain will
occur.

The warm front S of the region will start to lift N overnight,
so will see temps rise after midnight mainly toward daybreak
along the S coast, with readings holding around freezing well
inland.

Tuesday...

as the low pressure across the great lakes lifts into southern
ontario, will see another shot of milder air lift northward.

This is also associated with a very strong low level jet, on the
order of 50-55 kt, which will move across portions of ri SE mass
during the morning and midday hours. Noting very good low level
mixing in place, along with an increasing pressure gradient as
the low to the W strengthens. Could see S winds gusting up to
35-45 mph Tuesday morning into midday as the jet passes.

Also noting a deep tropical moisture connection, as pwat plume
of 1 to 1.25" works across the region. Will also see some good
instability ahead of the approaching cold front as total totals
rise to the lower 50s. Have also mentioned the chance for an
isolated thunderstorms as the front crosses the region from
midday through the afternoon hours.

An area of moderate to heavy rainfall will cross the region
during the day, with the highest amounts (up to around 1 to 1.3
inches across N central and W mass) moving across. There is a
risk for some urban and poor drainage flooding in any heavy
downpours. Could also see some issues along some of the mainstem
rivers, especially along the connecticut river where the higher
precipitation is expected to fall. Have held off issuing a flood
watch at this point, but will continue to monitor this aspect
closely.

Will see temps reach to lower-mid 50s across central and
southern areas, but remain in the upper 40s across the higher
terrain.

Long term Tuesday night through Monday
Big picture...

longwave pattern starts the period with a ridge over the plains and
shallow troughs over the pacific and atlantic coasts. The atlantic
trough lingers through the week.

Shortwave scale shows multiple troughs crossing the northern usa
during this period. A small but sharp trough moves across new
england Tuesday night, while a broader trough sweeps across on
Thursday and Friday.

Height fields at 500 mb and thermal fields at 850 mb forecast at
below normal january levels Wednesday night through Friday. Fields
then climb above normal Saturday and Sunday. This supports a colder
than normal period Thursday-Friday, trending milder than normal over
the weekend.

Model mass fields and thermal fields are in agreement through
Friday, followed by differences upstream over the plains over the
weekend. This brings high confidence to the forecast through Friday
and low-moderate confidence Saturday through Monday.

Details...

Tuesday night-Wednesday...

cold front moves well offshore while the parent surface low moves
off through quebec. Dry slot moves up across new england Tuesday
night. With the upper trough and associated cold pool moving
overhead, we would expect some strato-cu during the day
Wednesday... More than any of the forecast guidance is showing. But
with pw values at 0.25 inch or less it may simply be too dry.

Mixed layer depth should reach between 900 and 925 mb. The
warmer deeper mixing would support Wednesday highs in the low to mid
40s, while the colder shallower mixing would support highs in the
mid 30s to around 40. The mixed layer also will contain 20-25 knot
winds, supporting similar daytime wind gusts.

Thursday-Friday...

high pressure builds over the region. Cold advection and a tighter
pressure gradient will mean a blustery day Thursday with gusts 25-30
knots. Thursday temps around -14c at 900 mb suggest MAX temps mainly
in the 20s. Temps climb a couple of degrees Friday, so expect Friday
max temps in the upper 20s to low 30s. With airmas dew points in the
single numbers but lingering northwest wind, expect nighttime lows
in the upper single numbers and teens.

Saturday through Monday...

high pressure shifts offshore and surface winds turn from the
southwest. This will bring milder air back to the region. As noted
above, the incoming airmass is forecast to be above normal. Max
temps should at least reach the 40s with some potential to reach the
50s. Another upper trough is currently timed for early next week,
led by an associated surface cold front . There are differences
in model timing of the trough. The GFS shows FROPA on Tuesday,
the ECMWF shows Monday, and the ggem shows Sunday. So there is
uncertainty in timing of the cold front. For now we will show
chance pops Sunday-Monday. Temperatures look to be warm enough
for any precipitation to be rain showers.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

this afternoon and tonight... Moderate confidence. Ifr to lifr
conditions expected in showers and fog... Some of the fog will be
dense. Pockets of -fzdz -fzra possible across portions of
interior ma... Especially high terrain. Southerly llws concern
increases overnight.

Tuesday... Moderate confidence. Ifr to lifr conditions may
improve to mainly ifr conditions by late morning early afternoon
as the worst of the fog mixes out. However... Roughly a 6 hour
band of heavy rain with perhaps an embedded t-storm or two will
work across the region on Tuesday. Activity should be mainly
offshore by 00z. Southwest wind gusts up to 40 knots expected
along and southeast of the boston to providence corridor during
the afternoon. Llws will be a concern for the rest of the
region.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Saturday ...

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible early.

Windy with gusts to 35 kt. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt.

Wednesday night through Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night:VFR.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

light e-se winds increase to around 10 kt during the day. Seas
build up to 2-3 ft. Visibility reduced to around 3 miles during
the afternoon in rain and fog.

Tonight...

wind shift to se-s during the night, with gusts increasing to
20-25 kt. Seas build to 3-5 ft on the outer waters after
midnight. Visibility lowering to 1-3 miles in rain and fog.

Tuesday...

gale warning issued for all waters. S winds increase, gusting up
to 35-40 kt, highest from mid morning through the afternoon.

Seas build up to 6-9 ft. Visibility 1-3 miles in rain and fog.

Chance for isolated thunderstorm.

Outlook Tuesday night through Saturday ...

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Slight chance of rain showers
early.

Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft
advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Hydrology
A flood warning remains in effect for the connecticut river at
middle haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

No significant change from earlier forecasts.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Dense fog advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for ctz004.

Ma... Wind advisory from 11 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for maz013-
015>024.

Dense fog advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for maz002-004-008-
009-012-026.

Winter weather advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for maz002>006-
008-026.

Flood watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon for
maz003-004.

Ri... Wind advisory from 11 am to 7 pm est Tuesday for riz002>008.

Dense fog advisory until 9 am est Tuesday for riz001.

Marine... Gale warning from 9 am to 8 pm est Tuesday for anz232>235-237-
250-254>256.

Gale warning from 10 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for anz230-231-236-
251.

Synopsis... Wtb
near term... Frank
short term... Evt
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb frank
marine... Wtb evt
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 5 mi132 min 1 37°F 1025 hPa37°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 14 mi39 min 37°F 34°F1023.5 hPa
44090 17 mi27 min 37°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 18 mi67 min ENE 3.9 G 5.8 37°F 36°F1 ft1024 hPa (-1.6)37°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 29 mi39 min ENE 5.1 G 7 38°F 35°F1024.1 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 35 mi57 min ENE 14 G 16 38°F 1023.6 hPa (-1.5)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 39 mi45 min 38°F 35°F1024.1 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 39 mi39 min NE 12 G 13 38°F 1022.9 hPa
FRXM3 40 mi45 min 38°F 37°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 48 mi45 min NE 8 G 9.9 37°F 1023.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 48 mi39 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 40°F 36°F1023 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 48 mi72 min NE 8 38°F 1002 hPa38°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 49 mi39 min NNE 8.9 G 11 37°F 37°F1023.7 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA6 mi62 minE 41.50 miFog/Mist37°F37°F100%1023.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA10 mi2 hrsN 01.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist39°F37°F96%1024.2 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA17 mi64 minE 72.50 miFog/Mist0°F0°F%1023.4 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4
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NE6CalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmSE4CalmCalmE4NE5E4E4
1 day agoSW18
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SW12W9W11W7W7SW6SW4W4SW6W6SW6W9W4W6W4CalmW4W6NW8NW6N63
2 days agoSW8SW6W6CalmCalmW4W7SW6SW5SW7SW4S7S7SW9SW15
G23
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Tide / Current Tables for Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts
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Cotuit Highlands
Click for Map
Mon -- 03:44 AM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:20 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:04 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 03:57 PM EST     2.50 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:45 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:20 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.622.32.42.11.610.50.20.30.61.11.622.42.52.31.81.20.60.200.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:52 AM EST     -0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:46 AM EST     -4.15 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:38 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:34 AM EST     3.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:05 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:50 PM EST     -0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:04 PM EST     -4.34 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:45 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:01 PM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 10:03 PM EST     4.14 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:21 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.5-1-3-3.9-4.1-3.6-2.31.73.23.93.93.42.4-1.1-3-4-4.3-4-3-0.52.93.84.13.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.