Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 7:39 PM Moonrise 12:54 AM   Moonset 9:27 AM

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ANZ232 Nantucket Sound- 103 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
This afternoon - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 12 seconds and E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 2 ft at 11 seconds and se 1 ft at 5 seconds. Tue night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers. Wed - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers. Wed night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Thu through Fri night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 103 Pm Edt Mon Apr 29 2024
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - A cold front will move into the waters today, then stall to the west tonight and Tue. Low pres tracks south of new eng Tue night into Wed, then high pres will follow for Thu and Fri.

FXUS61 KBOX 291422 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1022 AM EDT Mon Apr 29 2024

SYNOPSIS
Enjoy the warm and partly sunny conditions today, a backdoor cold front will bring much cooler conditions, clouds, and spot showers on Tuesday. The greatest risk for a period of showers will be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures for late this week and next weekend are uncertain given the positioning of a backdoor cold front...but are looking more likely to end up on the cooler side especially along the coast.
After a slight chance of showers Thursday, another round of showers may arrive late next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
1015 AM update...

Backdoor cold front is pushing south into northern MA this morning and will gradually move south and west across SNE through the afternoon. Mild start to the day with temps already well into 60s to lower 70s. However, sea breezes will develop and quickly cool coastal locations to the upper 50s and lower 60s. Elsewhere highs will range from 65-70 in northern MA to near 80 in portions of Hartford county, with 70s in between away from the coast. But cooling this afternoon as the front moves through.

Mainly dry day with partial sunshine mixing with diurnal cu.
There may be some showers moving south from northern New Eng but not likely to make it into northern MA. Also, some convection is expected to develop in the more unstable air to the SW and W this afternoon but any showers should weaken and dissipate before making it into the CT valley as it remains stable.

Increasing cloud cover post sunset as a 850mb warm front lifts from southwest to northeast. Can't rule out a few widely sct'd showers around midnight to 5/6am Tuesday. Maintained 20 to 40 POPs, 'Slight Chance' to 'Chance' POPs, mainly across northern Connecticut and western Massachusetts. A mild night as well with overnight lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY/
Highlights:

* Much cooler on Tuesday, by as much as 10 or 15 degrees cooler due to a backdoor cold front.

* Spot showers possible ahead of an approaching cold front late Tuesday.

A noticeable difference come Tuesday, temperatures are roughly 10 to 15 degrees colder than the day prior, plus cloudy skies and chance for spot showers. We can thank a backdoor cold front for the cooler temperatures, brought on by an east to east- southeast wind throughout the day. This knocks back the warm temperatures to a range of what is considered 'normal' for late April. There will be a spread in temperatures from the low/mid 50s in Boston to the mid/upper 60s in Hartford to Springfield.
In between, many locations achieve a high temperature in-between the lower and middle 60s. Coastal towns are much cooler, with highs in the low to mid 50s! As for precipitation, have maintained 'Slight Chance' POPs across western Massachusetts and northwest Connecticut for the early afternoon, but the POPs increase into the late afternoon. Do think the bulk of any rain will arrive overnight, which is discussed in the Long Term section of the AFD.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Key Points...

* Cool Wed with highs in the 50s coast & 60s inland.

* Main threat for a period of showers Tue night into Wed morning.

* Generally dry Thu & Fri but can't rule out some scattered showers on Thursday...large spread in potential high temps.

* Another round of showers possible next weekend.

Details...

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...

High pressure remains in control directing cool, NE flow into southern New England keeping highs once again in the low to mid 50s (east) and mid 60s (CT valley). A shortwave passing overhead coupled with a surface low moving from the mid-Atlantic passing south of the region will bring a round of showers moving in Tuesday night and continuing through at least Wednesday morning; there is a low probability that showers continue well into the evening before weak ridging moves in and things dry out a bit.

Thursday and Friday...

An upper level ridge tries to build in for the latter half of the week, but latest guidance now indicates a shortwave suppressing the eastern periphery of the ridge over SNE on Thursday, so things aren't looking as dry for Thursday as they did 24 hours ago. Even so, weak forcing and PWATs <1" will keep any rainfall from being to impactful. By Friday with the ridge closer dry weather is more likely. The biggest forecast challenge for this period will be the potential for another backdoor cold front to accompany this shortwave on Thursday which would keep the earlier expected 70s from materializing. At this point there is a considerable amount of uncertainty, but odds shifting toward a cooler solution with temps more likely to be in the 50s and 60s each day rather than the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday...

The ridge axis arrives on Saturday with our next shortwave on its heels which brings the return of widespread rain chances as early as Saturday night. Confidence is low given significant spread in how the pattern evolves.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today... High confidence.

Any lingering lower clouds or fog across the Cape and Islands will dissipate by mid morning, otherwise expect VFR Cigs throughout. Winds are north-northwest 5 to 10 knots across the interior, but a sea breeze develops along the coast 14z to 16z from the east-northeast to the east-southeast along the eastern MA coast and from the south-southeast around Narragansett Bay.

Tonight... Moderate to High confidence.

VFR, localized MVFR within widely scattered showers. Winds are generally light and variable in direction.

Tuesday... High confidence.

VFR east, MVFR west. Showers develop late afternoon across northwestern terminals. Wind direction becomes east-southeast with speeds 8 to 12 knots.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

There is uncertainty with how low Cigs will fall this morning, feeling a bit more optimistic that the terminal remains VFR with lowering to 4000ft around 08z to 12z. West-southwest wind will become northerly by 12z, then sea breeze occurs 14z to 16z with a wind direction east-northeast late morning becoming east- southeast by mid afternoon.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

VFR. Light west-southwest wind becoming northerly by 12z. Wind direction is generally north through today with winds 10 knots of less. Lowering Cigs tonight to MVFR after 03z/05z.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.

Friday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Tuesday... High confidence.

Low chance for coastal fog to develop early this morning across the eastern waters, nighttime RGB product does show an area of low clouds/fog across the Gulf of Maine and high-res model guidance shows the potential for this to drift south between 6AM and 10AM. Otherwise, dry and partly sunny Monday with east- southeast winds along the eastern coast of Massachusetts and south-southeast winds along the south coast of Massachusetts and Rhode Island. Winds are 10 to 15 knots and seas 2 to 4 feet.

Tonight winds are light and variable. Tuesday, winds are east to southeast 8 to 12 knots, gusts around 15 knots. Seas 1 to 3 feet. A few showers are possible ahead of an approaching front during the afternoon.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Wednesday Night through Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain showers.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.

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Cotuit Highlands
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Mon -- 12:53 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:40 AM EDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:42 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:26 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:38 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:53 PM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
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Cotuit Highlands, Nantucket Sound, Massachusetts, Tide feet

Cape Cod Canal
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Mon -- 12:55 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:27 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:49 AM EDT     -4.17 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:47 AM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Mon -- 09:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:53 AM EDT     4.03 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 02:31 PM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:25 PM EDT     -3.79 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 07:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:08 PM EDT     3.56 knots Max Flood
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Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots

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