Sunday, March24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 7:01PM Sunday March 24, 2019 5:45 AM EDT (09:45 UTC) Moonrise 11:21PMMoonset 9:03AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 402 Am Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft, building to 4 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas around 4 ft, subsiding to 2 ft after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Mon night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 402 Am Edt Sun Mar 24 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure builds into the mid atlc today. A cold front then sweeps across the waters Mon followed by high pressure Tue and Wed. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 240801
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
401 am edt Sun mar 24 2019

Synopsis
High pressure over the mid atlantic states provides dry but much
milder temperatures this afternoon. However a trend toward cooler
weather arrives Monday as a dry cold front sweeps across the region.

Dry weather prevails much of next week with chilly weather tue
gradually moderating as the week progresses.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
4 am update...

short wave ridging across the region and associated 1026 mb high
pressure over the mid atlc provides dry weather across southern new
england today. However low level WAA commences ahead of approaching
cold front from the north this afternoon. This results in 925 mb
temps warming from about -1c early this morning to +5c this
afternoon. Model soundings indicate blyr mixing up to about 900 mb.

This combined with abundant sunshine and wnw winds becoming wsw this
afternoon will support highs in the mid to upper 50s. Even a low
prob some locations away from the south coast briefly touch 60!
quite the difference from Saturday's blustery conditions. Coolest
temps this afternoon along and near the south coast with highs in
the low 50s early this afternoon then falling into the 40s as winds
shift to the SW off the chilly ocean waters.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Tonight ...

cold front slowly sags southward to near the south coast by sunrise
Monday. Modest lift associated with short wave trough and attending
cold front but model cross sections reveal lots of dry air below 10
kft. Thus not expecting much than a spot shower or sprinkle second
half of the night. Most locations remain dry. Not as cold as
previous nights given prefrontal airmass, with lows mainly in the
30s.

Monday ...

cold front along or near the south coast at sunrise. As mentioned
above lots of dry air below 10 kft. Thus just expecting an abundance
of mid clouds with just the low risk of a spot morning shower or
sprinkle. Otherwise front moves offshore with sunshine developing
from north to south. Core of cold air lags and holds off until mon
night into tue. Thus seasonable temps Monday with highs 45-50.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
* dry through the week with high pressure building over the region
* colder weather through mid week, then temperatures look to
rebound late next week
overview and model preferences...

overall, noting fairly good agreement between both ensemble and
operational guidance with the 24.00z guidance update. The only
caveat, unsurprisingly, is toward the end of the 7 day period,
dealing with two separate waves, one from the pacific, the other
moving out of NW canada. As such, there remains timing, and
strength differences regarding low pres and attendant frontal
passage for late next weekend. Overall, a consensus blend will
be used given the agreement early, and the uncertainty late, to
take into account differences.

Mon night into wed...

coldest stretch of the long term. Deep cutoff settles across
quebec and labrador, allowing h85 temps to drop near seasonal
record lows per SPC sounding climatology. This range is general
-14c to -16c on Tue which should limit highs to the upper 30s
and low 40s. Milder wed, closer to seasonal normals thanks to
mixing likely exceeding h85. Overnight mins coldest Tue and wed
nights as high pres crests, yielding good setup for radiational
cooling.

Thu and fri...

more spring like as h85 temps approach 1 std deviation above
normal, or around +5c to +7c. This should allow highs Thu to
move into the upper 40s to mid 50s and potentially approaching
60f by fri. Dry wx continues under high pres influence even as
modest mid lvl warm advection occurs. One fly in the ointment,
will be sea breezes given light sfc flow and cool ssts in the
40s. So coastal areas likely remain cooler.

Next weekend...

will be watching the gradual approach of low pres and attendant
cold front. Given there is at least a loose link to subtropical
moisture, anticipate there will be a period of precipitation,
but timing remains somewhat uncertain. Mild conditions continue
until this frontal passage.

Aviation 08z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

06z update ...

thru 12z ...

vfr, dry runways along with a modest wnw wind 10-20 kt.

After 12z ...

vfr, dry with wnw winds 10-20 kt shifting to the wsw late
morning into the afternoon.

Tonight ...

vfr and dry during the evening along with wsw winds. After 06z
vfr CIGS ovc100 along with a spot shower or sprinkle possible.

Wsw winds shifting to nw.

Monday ...

MVFR in the morning, mainly south coast with low risk of a spot
shower sprinkle, then trendingVFR from north to south along
with dry conditions. North winds.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf
outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night through Thursday: mainlyVFR. Daily sea breezes
possible especially tue-thu.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ...

today ...

modest wnw winds 15-20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt then winds shifting
to the wsw ahead of an approaching cold front. Dry weather and good
vsby prevail.

Tonight ...

dry cold front moves across southern new england. Wsw winds become
nw toward daybreak as cold front slips toward the south coast.

Monday ...

wsw winds becoming nnw by midday as dry cold front moves offshore.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday night through Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz231>235-237-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt this morning for anz250-
251.

Synopsis... Nocera doody
near term... Nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Doody
aviation... Nocera doody
marine... Nocera doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi27 min 35°F 39°F1018.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 11 mi60 min W 4.1 32°F 1018 hPa14°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 22 mi45 min W 14 G 16 1019.6 hPa (+1.8)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi27 min 34°F 42°F1018.4 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 25 mi25 min WNW 19 G 21 36°F 39°F1017.4 hPa20°F
FRXM3 25 mi33 min 35°F 18°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi27 min 36°F 1018.2 hPa
44090 26 mi15 min 38°F3 ft
PRUR1 31 mi27 min 32°F 15°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi60 min W 4.1 32°F 1018 hPa14°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 33 mi33 min 35°F 37°F1018.4 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi33 min 33°F 1018.7 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi27 min 34°F 41°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi33 min 35°F 41°F1018.6 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi27 min 35°F 1018.2 hPa15°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi33 min 34°F 39°F1017.5 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi33 min 36°F 41°F1017.6 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi45 min 41°F6 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi50 minWNW 5 G 1110.00 miFair30°F14°F51%1017.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi52 minW 710.00 miFair31°F16°F54%1017.5 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi52 minWNW 510.00 miFair0°F0°F%1017.9 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi53 minWSW 510.00 miFair28°F14°F56%1017.4 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi49 minW 710.00 miFair33°F12°F42%1016.7 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNE18
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2 days agoSE5SE6SE10SE13
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G19

Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Chappaquoit Point
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Sun -- 05:02 AM EDT     -0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 09:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:20 AM EDT     4.16 feet High Tide
Sun -- 05:07 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:43 PM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.43.21.80.5-0.4-0.6-0.40.21.22.43.54.143.21.90.7-0.1-0.4-0.20.31.22.43.54.4

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:39 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:11 AM EDT     -4.09 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:39 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:38 AM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:02 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 11:17 AM EDT     3.97 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 02:02 PM EDT     -0.05 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:34 PM EDT     -4.05 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:04 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Sun -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 11:42 PM EDT     3.86 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.72.6-1.8-3.5-4.1-3.9-3.1-1.91.52.83.643.83.10.6-3-3.9-4-3.4-2.4-0.52.33.23.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.