Wednesday, December12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:00AMSunset 4:15PM Wednesday December 12, 2018 1:20 AM EST (06:20 UTC) Moonrise 11:52AMMoonset 10:10PM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 116 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 am est this morning through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of snow showers.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Est Wed Dec 12 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak low pres will pass E across the waters tonight, afterwhich high pres builds S from quebec Wed and Thu. Expect ocean effect snow bands to develop under n/nw winds across the eastern massachusetts waters Wed into Wed night. The high will shift E of the waters on Fri. A storm system will approach the waters from the sw Fri night and Sat, lifting slowly across the waters Sat night and Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 120317
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1017 pm est Tue dec 11 2018

Synopsis
Mainly dry and cold weather prevails into Thursday, except for some
scattered ocean effect snow showers Wednesday, mainly across
the outer-cape. Mild temperatures arrive Friday and continue
into early next week with the best chance for rain Friday night
into Saturday in association with low pressure.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
Tricky forecast for the overnight. Water vapor satellite imagery
and high resolution model guidance have pinpointed a vigorous
mid level shortwave across the western half of southern new
england late this evening. Many reports of flurries light snow
across portions of ri and SE ma.

This shortwave will continue to move east overnight. As it does,
still expecting winds to turn north between now and 1 am est.

Latest surface streamline analysis showed this was underway
already. Thus, expecting snow showers to become more prevalent
across the outer CAPE late tonight into Wednesday. Will need to
monitor wind direction closely. A more westward shift of only
20 degrees would put most of the ocean-effect showers over the
coastal waters, and not the CAPE and nantucket. Timing will also
be critical. It's possible some of the stronger snow showers
will still be around for the Wednesday morning commute on the
cape and nantucket. Untreated surfaces may be slippery, and
visibility may quickly drop in spots.

Temperatures were trending lower this evening, so made some
tweaks there, too. Abundant clouds with the mid level shortwave,
so expecting status quo for a few hours, with a late drop toward
daybreak when clearing develops across the interior.

Previous discussion...

tricky forecast overnight with inverted trough swinging across
the region. The biggest uncertainty is does this produce a brief
period of scattered snow showers near the south coasts of ri se
ma and onto the CAPE islands. The model guidance is somewhat
split on this potential... But the 18z model runs seem a bit more
aggressive in bringing a brief period of scattered snow showers.

This especially true near the fall river to new bedford areas
and onto the CAPE islands. The main time of concern is between
10 pm and 4 am. Any accumulations would generally be a dusting
to less than an inch... But some slippery spots would be possible
given cold ground temperatures. This is separate from the
scattered ocean effect snow showers expected on portions of the
cape... Especially east of hyannis on Wednesday.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
A shortwave will move southeast across the region overnight,
providing enough instability for ocean effect snow along the
outer CAPE tomorrow morning. Models support ocean effect snow
tomorrow along the outer cape. As winds turn out of the nnw by
12z tomorrow, combining with the instability and moisture aloft,
ocean effect seems likely after 12z.

Looking at model soundings, it looks like the temperature
difference between an inversion aloft and the sea surface temps
will be between 15c and 20c, which will support strong snow
showers during the time period. Snowfall accumulations look to
be between 1 to 2 inches along the outer cape, but less than 1
inch is possible into falmouth and southern plymouth county.

Elsewhere across the region will be mostly sunny and dry.

Snow will likely last throughout the day, however, some models
are showing pockets of dry air moving in aloft after 18z, which
may cut off the snow showers earlier than expected.

A strong high pressure builds into the northeast Wednesday
night. With mostly clear skies and light northerly winds,
overnight temperatures will be more than 10 degrees below
normal. Northern massachusetts could see lows in the single
digits.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* dry but cold Thursday
* milder Friday with a period rain focused Fri night into sat
* low confidence forecast early next week
details...

Thursday...

high pressure overhead will result in mostly sunny skies but another
cold day. After a very cold start... Light winds and the low
december Sun angle will only allow afternoon high temperatures to
recover into the lower to middle 30s.

Thursday night...

dry weather should prevail... But we may see some mid level
cloudiness overspread parts of the region overnight. This a result
of high pressure moving off the coast and warm advection aloft.

Still expect to see low temps bottom out mainly in the upper teens
to lower 20s with rather light winds.

Friday into early next week...

a pattern change to milder weather expected as an active pacific jet
flushes out the cold weather we have experienced over much of the
last month. Given the pattern transition and active sub-tropical
jet... The forecast going forward remains low confidence into early
next week.

We do think that warm advection ahead of southern stream energy will
result in a period of rain... Focused Friday night into Saturday.

A low risk for a brief period of freezing rain at the onset can
not be ruled out... But generally expecting a rain event.

The other big issue is the track timing of the surface low. This
will all come down to the location strength of both the northern and
southern stream energy. If the southern stream energy gets pulled
northward, precipitation chances would continue into Sunday and or
Monday... But if it gets shunted south our region will mainly be dry.

If we do see precipitation Sun into mon... Ptype would favor rain
given the overall milder regime. However... A low risk for some
wintry precipitation can not be completely ruled out. The storm
would have to track near the benchmark and would also require enough
marginally cold air to work down from the north.

Aviation 03z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

MainlyVFR except some marginal MVFR-ifr conditions later
tonight into Wed across the CAPE islands along with scattered
ocean effect snow showers wed. In addition, a period of MVFR
conditions along with a brief period of scattered snow showers
is possible roughly between 03z and 09z near the south coasts of
ri ma. Nnw wind gusts of 20 knots expected Wed with up to 25 kt
possible across portions of the CAPE ack.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday through Thursday night:VFR.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
ra.

Friday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Ra.

Saturday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Ra likely.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy
with areas gusts to 30 kt. Chance ra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with local
gusts to 30 kt. Chance ra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Rather tranquil boating conditions through this evening with
good visibility. Northerly flow increases across the waters
late tonight into Wednesday. Rough seas expected to develop
across the outer coastal waters as a result. A small craft
advisory has been issued for many of our open waters. In
addition to the winds, ocean-effect snow showers may reduce
visibility at times to less than 3 nm late tonight into
Wednesday across the eastern coastal waters.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Rain.

Saturday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain likely.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with local gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft. Chance of
rain.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 12 ft. Chance of rain.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 7 am to 4 pm est Wednesday for
anz231>234-251.

Small craft advisory from 7 am Wednesday to 1 pm est Thursday
for anz250-254-255.

Small craft advisory from 4 am Wednesday to 7 am est Thursday
for anz256.

Synopsis... Frank correia
near term... Belk frank
short term... Correia
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank correia
marine... Frank correia


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi32 min 33°F 40°F1011 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 11 mi95 min 2.9 32°F 1012 hPa28°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 22 mi80 min NE 7 G 7 35°F 1012.2 hPa (-1.9)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi38 min 32°F 44°F1012 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi32 min NE 6 G 7 33°F 1011.8 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 25 mi30 min NNW 3.9 G 7.8 36°F 40°F1 ft1011.2 hPa26°F
FRXM3 25 mi32 min 33°F 23°F
44090 26 mi20 min 44°F1 ft
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi38 min ENE 6 G 8 34°F 1011.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 33 mi38 min N 8 G 13 35°F 41°F1011.3 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi95 min NNE 2.9 35°F 1012 hPa27°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi32 min NNE 6 G 7 33°F 43°F1011.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi38 min N 6 G 8 34°F 42°F1011.7 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi32 min N 7 G 8 33°F 1011.9 hPa19°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi38 min NNE 6 G 8.9 33°F 44°F1011.5 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi32 min Calm G 1 34°F 38°F1010.8 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi37 min 50°F4 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi25 minN 55.00 miLight Snow30°F28°F93%1011.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi27 minN 09.00 miOvercast31°F28°F92%1011.5 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi27 minN 63.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F92%1011.2 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi28 minN 010.00 miOvercast31°F26°F82%1011.8 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi24 minN 06.00 miLight Snow33°F28°F82%1011.1 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW4NW4CalmNW3NW4N3Calm3CalmS5SW6S6S8SW4CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN4
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2 days agoNW7NW6NW7--NW4CalmW4W5W6W9W9W12W10SW8
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Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Chappaquoit Point
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Wed -- 04:03 AM EST     0.37 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:07 AM EST     3.66 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:40 PM EST     0.40 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 09:10 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:37 PM EST     3.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.92.21.30.60.40.511.52.12.73.33.73.52.81.810.50.40.71.11.522.63.1

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
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Wed -- 01:47 AM EST     -0.13 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:05 AM EST     -3.34 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:16 AM EST     0.15 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:51 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:20 AM EST     2.98 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:48 PM EST     -0.02 knots Slack
Wed -- 04:12 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 04:22 PM EST     -3.57 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:35 PM EST     0.16 knots Slack
Wed -- 09:10 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:52 PM EST     3.28 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.22.4-1.2-2.9-3.3-3.1-2.2-0.91.52.22.732.92.2-1.1-2.8-3.5-3.4-2.7-1.51.32.22.83.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.