Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:38AMSunset 4:20PM Monday November 20, 2017 8:29 AM EST (13:29 UTC) Moonrise 9:18AMMoonset 7:12PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 717 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.gale warning in effect until 6 pm est this evening...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Strong 979 mb low pres over eastern quebec early this morning will continue to provide near wnw gales through today. High pres then builds across the waters Tue followed by another cold front moving across new england Wed. High pressure then builds over the waters Thu and Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201146
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
646 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure in eastern quebec provides blustery and chilly
conditions across southern new england today. The high moves
south of the region Tue as winds shift to the southwest along
with milder temperatures. A cold front approaches the region
Tuesday night, and will combine with moisture working up the
eastern seaboard to bring showers across the region through
Wednesday. Dry and cold conditions expected Wednesday night
through the end of the week. A cold front may bring showers
Friday night into Saturday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
635 am update...

noting the bands of lake effect snow showers that have pushed
across central and western areas over the last few hours have
been tending to dissipate, though still seeing a few of the
bands holding together as they cross the berkshires into the e
slopes. Also noting some ocean effect snow showers developing
since 10z S of nantucket and N of kpvc on NE regional 88d radar
imagery.

W-nw wind gusts are starting to pick up, reaching 35 kt at kbid
and korh and 31 kt at kfit at 11z behind a passing short wave.

Other than clouds associated with the snow bands, noting mostly
clear skies across central and eastern areas with clouds
lingering from the E slopes of the berkshires westward as seen
on latest goes-13 satellite loop. Should see more clouds develop
during the morning with very cold air aloft.

Near term conditions were in pretty good shape, but have updated
to bring current.

Previous discussion...

fairly high amplitude mid level mean trough moving through the
region this morning with 500 mb temps down to about -36c over
lake ontario per early morning SPC mesoanalysis. This
instability combined with cyclonic flow over the northeast
yielding periods of cloudiness across southern new england.

Embedded with this large scale flow are a few lake effect snow
streamers from ny state traversing ct into ri with another band
over northwest ma.

00z NAM and other hi res guidance capturing these narrow lake
effect bands very well, so leaned on this guid for the morning
hours. Not expecting much snow but a few of these bands may
briefly lower vsby and leave a quick dusting or coating behind.

However most locations will remain dry. By afternoon model low
level streamlines indicates trajectory will shift into northwest
ma. Thus any snow shower flurries this afternoon will be
focused over this region.

Otherwise a mix of Sun and clouds today, chilly with blustery
w-nw winds up to 35 mph. Colder than normal with highs only
40-45 except only mid to upper 30s across the high terrain. It
will feel even colder give the gusty w-nw winds. Normal highs
for 11 20 should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
330 am update...

tonight...

mid level mean trough kicks eastward with height rises
overspreading the region as mean ridge pushes toward new
england. Anticyclonic flow will provide dry weather. Some
mid high clouds may clip western ma as warm front lifts
northward across ny state into vt. This transition airmass
change will result in temps not as cold as this morning along
with less wind, with winds shifting from wnw to ssw. So coolest
temps likely this evening and then temps leveling off or rising
toward morning especially along the coast.

Tuesday...

short wave ridging across new england as next northern stream
trough dives into the great lakes. Thus dry weather expected.

Tightening ssw pgrad as high pres moves offshore as cold front
enters eastern lakes. A robust low level ssw jet of 40-45 kt
develops over the area tue. Given WAA pattern blyr not fully
mixed but model sndgs indicate up to 35 kt 40 mph possible. So a
windy day but this low level WAA pattern will provide mild
conditions as 925 mb temps warm to about +5c, supporting highs
in the mid to upper 50s, except low 50s across the high terrain.

About 5-8 degs warmer than normal. Should be a mostly sunny day
as well.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* leftover SW wind gusts Tuesday evening ahead of approaching
cold front
* atlantic moisture will stream across the region as the cold
front pushes across late Tuesday night and Wednesday
* dry but chilly for thanksgiving day and Friday
* a cold front may bring some showers Fri night into early next
weekend
overview...

continued progressive mid level steering pattern noting during
most of this forecast period. However, will see amplified but
progressive h5 trough dig across the eastern u.S. Tuesday night
into Wednesday. Most models still signaling low pressure
developing off the SE coast and will combine with h5 short wave
approaching new england to bring tropical moisture up the coast
late Tue night and Wednesday.

As the front pushes offshore Wed night, will see mainly dry
weather but colder than average temperatures for thanksgiving
and Friday as high pressure ridge builds in. Models showing some
timing and track differences of another low that looks to pass
s and E of CAPE cod Thu night into Fri as another h5 trough digs
across the eastern seaboard. Strong low pressure across southern
canada will bring another cold front moving across late fri
night or Sat that may linger further into next weekend.

Expect temperatures to run close to or below normals through
this period.

Details...

Tuesday night and Wednesday... High confidence.

High pres at the surface and aloft moves off the eastern
seaboard Tue night. Rather strong pressure gradient on western
periphery of the high. Low level jet at 45-50 kt from h95 to
h925 Tue evening across S coastal ma and S ri along with the
leftover low level lapse rates (on order of 7-8c km) through
around midnight may be enough for some SW wind gusts up to 30-35
kt or a bit higher. During the early morning hours, will see
pres gradient between the high and approaching front relax and
the low level jet move offshore.

Noting inverted troughing off the carolina coast with s-se
winds bringing surge of low level moisture up the coast on the
backside of the high, then gets caught up in the s-sw flow ahead
of approaching cold front. Models continue to signal weak
tropical or subtropical low form off the fl coast which will
ride NE in the low level flow.

The moisture plume will enhance the precip across eastern areas
as the low passes E of the 40n 70w benchmark. Showers will move
into S coastal areas late Tue night with the best QPF amounts
moving in Wednesday, with the highest amounts forecast along e
coastal areas on the order of 0.4 to 0.7 inches.

The cold front pushes through late Wed wed evening, with rain
possibly changing over to snow showers across the E slopes of
the berkshires before ending. Not expecting much in the way of
accumulations there. The colder air works in Wed night as skies
become mostly clear, though some clouds linger along S coastal
areas.

Thanksgiving and Friday... High confidence.

Behind the front on Wednesday, CAA will move back into the
region for Thursday. High pressure ridging builds across the
region with a dry but cool day expected for thanksgiving.

Another mid level short wave moves across Thu night and Friday,
but the moisture remains N of the region so expect to see
continued dry and cool conditions.

Friday night through Sunday... Low to moderate confidence.

Expect dry conditions Fri night as high pressure moves east.

May see a dry cold front move across, then stall S of the
region. Low pressure moves across central canada, with its
associated front approaching. This may bring a chance of light
mixed precip to the E slopes of the berkshires after midnight
then will change over to rain Sat morning as the precip
progresses eastward. Not a lot of confidence on the timing of
this front, and whether precip may linger into Sat night. Looks
like another shot of cold air works in late next weekend but
mainly dry conditions seen for now.

Aviation 12z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

1140z update...

through today...

vfr conditions with sct-bkn clouds at 5-6kft, though may see
brief MVFR conditions in isolated snow showers which should
taper off by mid morning. W-nw winds with gusts up to 30-35 kt,
highest across central and western areas. Higher terrain may see
gusts up to 40 kt.

Tonight...VFR. Diminishing wind and becoming ssw.

Tuesday...VFR but increasing ssw wind gusts 25-35 kt.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Scattered light snow
showers til 07z or so with marginal MVFR-vfr CIGS and vsby
possibly briefly lowering to 4sm in -shsn. OtherwiseVFR and
dry.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Chance shra.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Shra
likely.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thanksgiving day through Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High forecast confidence.

640 am update...

today...

marginal w-nw gales with gusts up to 35 kt. A few brief
rain snow showers through mid morning, otherwise mainly dry
weather prevails.

Tonight...

wnw winds slacken and shift from wnw to ssw as high pres slides
south of new england. Dry weather and good vsby prevail.

Tuesday...

ssw winds may approach gale force especially near shore.

Otherwise dry weather and good vsby prevail. Ssw winds will
provide a long fetch of wind along the south coast and will
yield building seas.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Thanksgiving day through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz231>235-237-
250-251-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz230-
236.

Synopsis... Nocera evt
near term... Nocera evt
short term... Nocera
long term... Evt
aviation... Nocera evt
marine... Nocera evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi42 min 40°F 51°F1012.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 11 mi105 min 7 37°F 1011 hPa22°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 22 mi90 min WNW 28 G 32 37°F 1012.1 hPa (+3.2)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi48 min 38°F 50°F1013.1 hPa
FRXM3 25 mi42 min 38°F 20°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi42 min W 19 G 24 38°F 1011.7 hPa
44090 26 mi30 min 51°F3 ft
PRUR1 31 mi42 min 37°F 17°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 31 mi40 min WNW 29 G 33 39°F 49°F3 ft1011.2 hPa (+3.2)26°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 33 mi42 min W 12 G 15 36°F 51°F1012.9 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi48 min NW 8 G 15 36°F 1013 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi105 min WNW 9.9 35°F 992 hPa19°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi48 min W 13 G 22 36°F 48°F1012.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi48 min W 7 G 11 37°F 50°F1013.4 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi42 min WNW 12 G 19 37°F 1012.7 hPa16°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi42 min NW 8.9 G 22 36°F 50°F1012.3 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi42 min WNW 12 G 18 39°F 47°F1012.2 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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SW25
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W36
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W25
G32
W17
G24
W20
G25
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G27
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1 day
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SW3
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G37
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NW23
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G15
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G14
NW8
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W14
G18
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--

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi55 minW 19 G 3110.00 miFair and Breezy36°F15°F44%1011.8 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi37 minWNW 11 G 2110.00 miFair47°F16°F29%1012.1 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi37 minNW 20 G 2810.00 miFair and Breezy38°F16°F41%1012.5 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi38 minWNW 14 G 2310.00 miFair37°F15°F41%1011.5 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi94 minWNW 9 G 1510.00 miFair36°F21°F57%1010.1 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW23
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W14W11W15W11
G21
W11W15
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W9W12
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1 day agoW3W3S6SW6S7S4SW10S9S6S7S14S11
G17
S12SW19
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SW15S14S18
G29
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G32
S22
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G34
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G33
2 days agoNW18
G25
NW17
G28
NW16
G26
NW12
G25
NW13
G24
W15
G22
NW11
G24
NW12
G18
NW11NW5
G11
W10W9
G16
NW11NW7CalmCalmW6NW5W5W4W6CalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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West Falmouth Harbor
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:57 AM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:37 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM EST     4.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:37 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:18 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:11 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:16 PM EST     3.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
10.2-0.10.20.71.52.43.54.34.64.23.11.80.70.20.10.40.91.72.53.33.83.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:06 AM EST     -4.36 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:12 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:38 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:10 AM EST     4.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 08:17 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:27 AM EST     -0.19 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:22 PM EST     -4.55 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:17 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 04:31 PM EST     0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 06:11 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 07:36 PM EST     4.28 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:04 PM EST     -0.20 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.9-4.4-4.1-3.2-1.42.63.74.13.93.42-2.3-3.9-4.5-4.4-3.7-2.22.13.64.24.23.930.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.