Friday, August18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:55AMSunset 7:39PM Friday August 18, 2017 3:02 AM EDT (07:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:19AMMoonset 5:19PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 116 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from this afternoon through late tonight...
Rest of tonight..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..S winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Patchy fog. Showers with tstms likely. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak high pressure off the coast will move farther offshore tonight. A warm front will lift north across the region Friday morning and a cold front will pass from west to east across the waters early Saturday. Showers and Thunderstorms will be widespread Friday into Saturday morning across the waters, along with areas of fog. High pressure will return on Sunday through Tuesday. A cold front will approach the waters midweek. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 180700
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
300 am edt Fri aug 18 2017

Synopsis
Out ahead of a deep low pressure center lifting into southern
canada, rain is to be expected, possibly heavy at times along
with the threat of localized flooding, for Friday into Friday
night. A low risk of strong to severe thunderstorms mainly over
s W portions of ma and ct. A cold front moves through new
england Saturday with a few leftover showers and thunderstorms,
then moves off to the east Saturday night. High pressure returns
with fair seasonable weather Sunday through Tuesday. Another
cold front sweeps through new england Wednesday, followed by
more dry weather Thursday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1000 pm update...

overall trend in the forecast remains on track. High level
clouds continue to move into the region from the west. Dewpoints
are beginning to rise in advance from the approaching warm
front. Dry weather will prevail over the next several hours as
light showers are still back in upstate ny. Still a lot of dry
air per sounding data for the moisture to overcome, so do not
expect wet weather until closer to sunrise.

Previous discussion follows...

quiet weather into this evening, clouds lowering and thickening
overnight into early morning Friday. High pressure shifting S e,
winds beginning to increase out of the S with increasing surface
dewpoints. Dry and clear conditions likely to prevail longest
over the N E resulting in the opportunity of radiational cooling
and lows getting down into the low 60s, while all other locations
drop down around the mid to upper 60s as showers encroach. Chance
to likely pops into N W portions of ma and ct by morning as tropical
moisture begins to over-run out ahead of the lifting warm frontal
boundary. More on that below.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
Friday into Friday night...

main concern of a heavy rain flooding threat, with a lower risk of
strong to severe thunderstorms. An atypical event for mid-august, on
the order of +1-2 standard deviations above average, with anomalous
s flow of tropical moisture with precipitable waters in excess of 2-
inches into a deep area of low pressure over SE canada with surface
dewpoints rising up into the low 70s. Will focus on 1.) a potential
heavy rain threat associated with a low-level jet impinging upon a
lifting warm front during the morning into afternoon period, and
possibly again overnight lingering into Saturday morning, and 2.)
afternoon-evening thunderstorms from the S w, some of which may be
strong to severe, at a minimum containing heavy rain threats.

1.) potential heavy rain threat.

Synoptically low-mid level forcing is apparent given convergence of
a S h925-85 jet rearward of a lifting warm frontal boundary beneath
ascent associated with lead shortwave energy, though the morphology
and strength differs among the forecast guidance. Absent is upper-
level support given lack of height falls, neighboring anticyclonic
motions with the immediate mid-upper level ridge e, as well as the
h3 jet axis N w. But can't ignore the anomalously moist environment
and weak elevated instability being acted upon. K-indices exceeding
40 indicative of a potential heavy rain threat.

Potential renewed heavy rain across E SE new england during the
overnight period with the warm front lingering sw-ne just offshore
out ahead of a h5-7 westerly convergent dry-punch. Continued low-
level confluence of tropical air brought N by h925-85 SW flow.

Along with elevated instability, main threat of heavy rain with
embedded thunder that lingers into Saturday morning ahead of a
slow moving cold front and the aforementioned mid-level dry punch.

Prefer high-res guidance which is in good agreement with the ncar
ensemble signaling significant probabilities of an inch per hour
rain rates with storm total rainfall amounts in excess of 3 inches
over areas of S new england, especially over the s-coast W to E on
Friday. Heaviest rain S E to which cips analogs agrees.

Overall, despite a slight risk of excessive rainfall with tropical
downpours exceeding flash flood guidance per wpc, given uncertainty
of outcomes plus differences in forecast solutions, will forego head-
lines with this forecast package. Leaning towards the potential of
an inch or more of rainfall in a short period of time that would
lead to urban, poor-drainage flooding.

Likely pops. Will go with a heavy rain mention with a lesser threat
of thunder given the low-level convergent forcing and warm-moist
column up to around 14 kft coinciding with the tropical airmass.

Warm-rain processes snailed. Likely low clouds and visibility
issues associated through the day and overnight.

2.) the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms.

Two areas of focus for thunderstorm development where both shear and
instability warrant the marginal risk of severe weather advertised
in the day 2 outlook from the storm prediction center: upstate ny
and pa, and around the DELMARVA peninsula.

The expectation is that within these two regions of focus shower and
thunderstorm activity will develop during the afternoon hours and
advect into S W portions of new england late. As prior forecaster
mentioned, there is marginal instability, however strong shear which
can potentially compensate. There is, subsequently, a risk for strong
to severe thunderstorms, along with heavy rain given the tropical
environment. Though a lot of this will rely on how quickly the morning
warm front lifts N E and whether the S W zones can destabilize with
partial clearing. That remains unclear at this time.

From the ncar ensembles, lightning activity level encroaches from
the w, diminishing E towards evening seemingly with lack of daytime
heating and, more likely, a renewed focus of the low-level jet along
the warm front S e. Indications of a better convective environment
further S W of worcester, with helicity noted in the 0-1 0-3 km
layer given the turning hodograph profile. K-indices get up to 40 as
lapse rates are conditionally unstable throughout the column, 5-6
c km. Overall a high shear, weak instability event. Not overly
confident given activity from the W will be entering a region of
more anticyclonic flow within the mid-upper levels S e, and it is
quite possible that activity around the DELMARVA peninsula robs the
environment n. Support given via hazard guidance from cips analogs.

Will go with likely pops for both showers and thunderstorms over
w SW ma and ct towards the later half of the day, diminishing into
evening. Keep with heavy rain but won't mention gusty winds.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Big picture...

subtropical high remains in control across the southern usa while a
general zonal flow continues across canada and the northern usa. The
flow becomes less zonal next midweek as alaska closed upper low digs
south over the gulf, subtropical upper ridge builds north over the
western usa, and upper low over hudsons bay digs south into the
northeast usa.

One shortwave moves across new england Saturday night, with brief
cooling aloft that destabilizes the airmass Sunday. A second
shortwave crosses new england Wednesday as the hudsons bay low
approaches and moves a supporting jet MAX across the region.

Contour heights are normal to a little higher than normal through
early next week. As the quebec closed low deepens, heights over new
england dip below normal midweek.

Model mass and thermal fields from the 00z suite are in general
agreement through Wednesday, building forecast confidence through
that time. Less agreement in the fields Thursday.

Details...

Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Models hold the the cold front over southern new england while
moisture fields race east and drier air moves in during the late
morning and afternoon. Pw fields show 1.5 inch values across much
of the region in the morning, but moving east of CAPE cod by
evening. CAPE fields show 1000-1500 j kg over easter ct ri eastern
mass midday. Winds aloft are marginally significant, especially at
500 mb with speeds of 40-45 knots. Stability parameters are mixed,
with totals in the mid to upper 40s in the early night, and li
values subzero over ri and eastern mass.

Expect the main area of showers heavy downpours to move east of
massachusetts during the morning. Drier air moves in at low levels,
with lingering moisture around 850 mb. This suggests at least some
clouds during the day, but with potential for sunny breaks. This
heating should push temps into the 80s, with enough instability to
generate scatterd showers thunder along and ahead of the cold front.

Saturday night...

cold front moves offshore, and surface winds become northwest. Skies
will either clear or partially clear. Dew points will linger in the
60s, with min temps close to that level.

Sunday...

upper shortwave and the coldest of the cold mid-level temps will be
over new england. The more significant cold temps as well as cloud-
level moisture will be over nh-vt. Cross-sections show southern new
england will have a moist layer based at 850 mb, but with drier air
above and below that layer. Expect diurnal clouds, probably a bit
more than guidance is suggesting, but otherwise a fair day with less
noticeable humidity. Temps aloft 12-14c support MAX sfc temps in
the upper 70s to mid 80s.

Surface high pressure builds in with light variable wind Sunday
night. With dew points in the upper 50s and around 60, expect min
temps around this same range. Guidance temps were nudged a couple of
degrees colder.

Monday-Tuesday...

high pressure builds over the region Monday and shifts offshore
south and east by Tuesday. Cross sections show dry air in place at
most levels through Tuesday evening, so expect dry weather both
days. Increasing mid and high clouds Tuesday ahead of the next
weather system. Temps aloft 14-15c Monday and 15-17c Tuesday,
supporting low-mid 80s Monday and 85 to 90 on Tuesday.

Tuesday night-Wednesday-Thursday...

closed low digs over quebec and the northeast usa with shortwave
driving a cold front into through new england. Expect
showers scatterd tstms with the front Tuesday night Wednesday. The
airmass dries out Thursday, but lingering patches of moisture in the
mixed layer should generate some diurnal sky cover.

Aviation 07z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

rest of today... High confidence.

Vfr. Light winds S W winds with an immediate sea-breeze along
the E coast.

Tonight... High confidence.

Vfr dominates most of the of the overnight hours, with MVFR ifr
cigs not arriving until mainly after 10z across the west. Winds
generally light, shifting mainly s.

Friday into Friday night... Moderate confidence.

MVFR-ifr CIGS prevailing especially 12z-16z from w-e. -ra ra
with embedded +ra with lower risk tsra accompanies the dropping
categories., holding across E terminals late and overnight as
sct ra +ra tsra develop into S W portions of ma and ct during
the afternoon, dissipating into evening. Strong S winds around
10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts, strongest over S SE new
england. Potential llws overnight with 40-45 kt SW jet across
s SE new england. All conditions improving as winds turn W into
early morning Saturday.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence.VFR most of the overnight
hours with a gradual transition through the morning to MVFR ifr
along with a band of shra and occasional +shra moving in mid
morning. Low risk for occasional tsra through the day.

Kbdl terminal... Morning shra with ifr possible especially after
10z. Some improvement is possible into the later-half of Friday
prior to ra +ra tsra encroaching from the S w. May dissipate
before reaching the terminal. Low confidence concerning timing
and outcomes with 18-22z TAF issuance.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday... Moderate confidence.

MVFR ifr CIGS and vsbys in showers and fog Saturday morning, then
lingering showers thunderstorms in eastern mass and ri in the pm.

Trend all places will be toVFR. A cold front over the region will
move offshore to the east by Saturday evening with winds shifting
from the west.

Areas of ifr CIGS vsbys in fog and low clouds later Saturday night.

Sunday through Tuesday... Moderate-high confidence.

Vfr. Areas of ifr in early morning fog low clouds, then improving
toVFR by each mid morning and continuing the remainder of each day.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ... Moderate confidence.

High pressure and light winds will lead to good boating weather
through this evening. But S winds will be on the increase over-
night, gusting up to 25 kts across the S SE waters Friday into
Friday night. Small craft advisory issued accordingly as winds
will result in heightened seas up around 5 feet.

Heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms sweeping W to E across
the waters Friday into Friday night. Will likely be some
visibility restrictions.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday... Moderate confidence.

Lingering potential for scattered showers tstms through the day,
diminishing west to east late Saturday. Diminishing wind through the
day. Some gusts 20-25 knots in the morning. Seas near 5 feet on the
outer waters and on ri sound, but trending lower through the day.

Sunday through Tuesday... Moderate-high confidence.

High pressure builds over the waters. Winds remain 20 knots or less,
and seas 4 feet or less.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 9 am edt
Saturday for anz231>234.

Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt
Saturday for anz236.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 11 am edt
Saturday for anz235-237.

Small craft advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm edt
Saturday for anz250-254.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt
Saturday for anz255-256.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Dunten sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb sipprell
marine... Wtb sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 6 mi44 min 69°F 71°F1015.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 11 mi77 min Calm 69°F 1016 hPa66°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 22 mi62 min SSE 7 G 7 68°F 1016.1 hPa (-0.9)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 24 mi44 min 69°F 73°F1016.2 hPa
FRXM3 25 mi44 min 67°F 63°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 25 mi44 min S 4.1 G 4.1 68°F 1014.6 hPa
44090 26 mi28 min 68°F
PRUR1 31 mi44 min 67°F 64°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 31 mi72 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 69°F1 ft1016 hPa (-0.5)59°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 33 mi44 min S 1.9 G 2.9 69°F 69°F1015.4 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 33 mi44 min W 1.9 G 4.1 68°F 1015.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 33 mi77 min NNW 1.9 67°F 1016 hPa65°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 34 mi50 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 68°F 73°F1015.3 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 36 mi50 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 74°F1015.6 hPa
PVDR1 37 mi44 min SW 2.9 G 4.1 67°F 1015.2 hPa61°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 39 mi44 min SW 1 G 2.9 67°F 71°F1014.7 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 40 mi44 min SSW 5.1 G 6 1016 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA11 mi67 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds61°F59°F94%1016.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA14 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair60°F59°F96%1015.6 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair56°F54°F93%1016 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair63°F60°F90%1015.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA24 mi66 minSSW 410.00 miFair69°F63°F81%1015.7 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5N5N3CalmCalmN4E4Calm4E6S76SW7S12S11SW8SW6SW4SW6SW4S3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoSW6W7NW7NW4W7NW10NW7
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Tide / Current Tables for West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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West Falmouth Harbor
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:19 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:38 AM EDT     4.24 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:15 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:07 PM EDT     5.25 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.71.42.43.44.14.23.62.41.30.40.10.20.61.42.53.74.85.24.93.92.51.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:31 AM EDT     0.08 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:39 AM EDT     4.21 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:54 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:09 AM EDT     -0.03 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:54 AM EDT     -4.27 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 01:01 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:03 PM EDT     4.09 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:21 PM EDT     -0.18 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:37 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:20 PM EDT     -4.63 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.22.13.54.14.23.93.11.2-2.9-4-4.3-3.9-2.9-0.32.93.84.13.93.31.8-2.5-4-4.6-4.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.