Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mattapoisett Center, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 7:03PM Saturday March 25, 2017 7:27 PM EDT (23:27 UTC) Moonrise 5:19AMMoonset 4:24PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 717 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain and snow this evening.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt...becoming E 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of rain.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely.
Tue..W winds around 5 kt...becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming W after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Seas are reported as significant wave height...which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 717 Pm Edt Sat Mar 25 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Canadian high pres will build S over northern new england tonight then slowly shift E of new england Sun and Mon. Low pres will cross the waters Tue into Wed. Canadian high pres will build over new england later Wed and Thu and last through Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period...please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattapoisett Center, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 252106
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
506 pm edt Sat mar 25 2017

Synopsis
A cold front lingers offshore well south of new england tonight.

The front will then push northward as a warm front Sunday.

A weather system lifts through the great lakes Sunday and Monday
bringing a wintry mix inland and wet weather near the coast.

Another low pressure area will move across southern new england
Tuesday bringing some rain showers. High pressure brings dry but
cooler weather Wednesday and Thursday. Then more precipitation
possible late Friday into Saturday.

Near term /until 6 am Sunday morning/
Shortwave ridge aloft builds east into our area tonight. This
turns our upper flow from the northwest. This allows surface
high pressure centered over quebec to build south into new
england.

Observed precip has been mainly rain, but cold air advancing
southeast created a rain/snow mix... Even all snow in the
hills... In northern ma this afternoon. Expect mostly light rain
farther south but with a potential for a brief rain/snow mix as
the precip area moves southeast late afternoon/evening.

Trailing edge of pcpn on radar is trending southeast and should
move across southern new england... Roughly to the mass pike
about 5 pm and to the south coast about 630 pm. The trailing
edge of the clouds is roughly along the canadian border. This
trends across our area between 8 pm and midnight. Per
composite guidance, the cloud shield motion stalls over SW ct
and long island between midnight and 3 am, then slowly builds
north again.

So expect clearing or partial clearing most places. A northeast
marine wind will not carry any low dew points, but we should see
a small lowering trend through early tonight. Min temps expected
to be a little above dew point, in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Short term /6 am Sunday morning through Sunday night/
Sunday...

high pressure shifts east into the maritimes. The pressure
builds southwest through new england with a typical cold air
damming signal. Ageostrophic winds at 1000 mb turn from north
Sunday morning at 10-15 knots... Would like to see that a little
higher, but the direction is good.

The ggem is most aggressive in bringing precip north into new
england... And even that is west of hartford at 12z Sunday. Most
of the others are not even in new england. The strongest low
level winds and resulting lift will be in ny/pa, with little
wind over here. Expect most of the precip to be to our west,
with light QPF in western new england... About 0 to 0.03 inches.

Temperature profiles suggest that if there is any precip, it
would involve rain or a rain/sleet mix and mainly for the
western and central hills. Consensus timing would bring any
chance for the precip into western new england late morning. If
anything reaches farther east it would be in the
afternoon/evening, by which point temperatures should be above
freezing.

Model high temps show upper 30s in the hills and low-mid 40s
lower down. With clouds, cold air damming, and the chance of
pcpn, we opted to undercut this by 2-4f. Forecast MAX temps will
be in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Sunday night...

the stronger low level south winds shift farther east Sunday
evening and bring a greater potential for lift and precip
production. The upper ridge also shifts east at this time,
bringing under the influence of the approaching great lakes
shortwave and associated upper jet. This will mean an increasing
chance of precip during the night.

Temperature profiles show a layer of above-freezing air between
800-900 mb with MAX temps around 3c. This indicates a sleet
potential, especially overnight as cooling surface temps may
allow the precip to refreeze below the warm layer. A 3c
temperature is on the low side for freezing rain production, but
close enough to consider the possibility.

Precip amounts start the evening light, but will build up
overnight as the shortwave and low level lift increase. This
will be a concern just as the early Monday morning commute gets
started. We are anticipating the need for winter weather
headlines starting sometime during the night.

Long term /Monday through Saturday/
Highlights...

* rain Monday and showery on Tuesday
* sunshine mid-week
* more precipitation late Friday into Saturday
upper level pattern overview...

several short wave troughs moving through our region through the
upcoming week. The first is weak and moves through on mon. The
next is stronger and closes off an upper low as it moves through
northern new england on wed. Then large model differences occur,
with the ECMWF much more amplified with a ridge over our region
thu and a sharp trough approaching by sat. Other models have a
more benign west-southwest flow aloft over the region in that
time frame.

Details...

Monday... Moderate confidence.

Southerly low level jet of 30-40 kt will usher warmer air into
the region Monday morning, changing any leftover freezing rain
in the hilly terrain of western and north-central ma over to all
rain by mid to late morning. A weak surface warm front will
become stationary over southern parts of the region while a weak
wave of low pressure develops along the front. Due to cold air
damming, areas north of the mass pike will take longer to reach
the lower 40s but in northern ct, ri, and southeast ma we are
forecasting highs to reach the upper 40s.

Rain is likely across the region... And it could be briefly
moderate to heavy at times... With generally about one-half inch
of rainfall expected in most places. Mon. Afternoon total totals
reach 50 and k reaches 25-30 but with no cape, have not
mentioned any thunder.

Monday night into Tuesday night... Moderate confidence.

As the upper level shortwaves trough moves away from our region,
it will be replaced by a weak mid-level ridge Monday night.

There will be a lull or complete break in the precipitation
Monday night. Skies will remain cloudy with perhaps some
drizzle, which will keep low temperatures in the upper 30s and
lower 40s.

Another weak low pressure area will be moving through on
Tuesday, accompanied by PVA with the upper shortwave trough axis
late in the day. There is a chance of showers anywhere during
the day. Model high temperatures have come way up, due to 925 mb
temperatures possibly nearing 8c to 9c. Have split the
difference between the warm GFS and the cooler ECMWF and am
forecasting highs mainly in the 55 to 60 range... Cooler along
the coast.

That system departs Tuesday night with shower chances
diminishing. Lows mainly 35 to 40.

Wednesday through Friday morning...

cold air aloft will overspread southern new england as strong
high pressure over hudson bay Wednesday morning builds across
the new england region by Friday morning. Late march sunshine,
however, will allow high temperatures to still reach into the
lower 50s Wednesday and mid 40s to lower 50s Thursday and
Friday. Mostly clear skies could allow nighttime lows to dip
well into the 20s in northern and western areas each night, with
the coldest being Thursday night.

Friday afternoon into Saturday... Low confidence.

All models agree on an increase in cloudiness Friday afternoon.

But there is much uncertainty as to whether low pressure will
track across the region or skirt the area to the south.

Currently, we have a chance of showers in the forecast.

However, depending on timing, there is a low chance that
northwest hills of ma could have a touch of freezing rain early
on Saturday morning - april 1... No foolin'. Again confidence is
low that far out.

Aviation /20z Saturday through Thursday/
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Sunday night/... Moderate confidence.

This evening...

area of rain/snow/sleet moving southeast through massachusetts
at 330 pm and should move off the south coast around 630-730 pm.

MVFR cigs/vsbys are expected during this passage, with embedded
areas of ifr in the precipitation.

Tonight...

high pressure builds from the north. This will bring clearing
skies between 8 pm and midnight, as well as an improvement to
vfr. Light east-northeast flow through the night.

Sunday...

mainlyVFR. Areas of MVFR cigs/vsbys in possible precipitation,
especially in ct and western ma. Some sleet or freezing rain
possible Sunday morning.

Sunday night...

conditions lower to MVFR, with ifr in the central hills and the
berkshires. Increasing chance of precipitation with time.

Increasing chance of sleet or freezing rain in areas north and
west of boston-providence. Best chance of precipitation will be
late at night, as the Monday morning push starts to gear up.

Kbos taf... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF trends. Moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday-Monday night... Moderate confidence. Any leftover
-fzra/-pl Monday morning will end across higher terrain by mid
to late morning. Otherwise MVFR-ifr CIGS in rain.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. MVFR
conditions within any passing rain showers.

Wednesday through Thursday... High confidence.VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term /through Sunday night/...

this evening... High confidence.

Area of light rain moves southeast across the waters, possibly
accompanied by brief snow with lower vsbys as it moves through.

Northeast winds less than 20 knots. Lingering 5 foot seas on the
southern outer waters. A small craft advisory continues there.

Seas less than 5 feet all other waters.

Tonight... High confidence.

East-northeast winds less than 20 knots. Seas will remain less
than 5 feet.

Sunday... High confidence.

East winds less than 20 knots. Seas less than 5 feet.

Sunday night... Moderate-high confidence.

Approaching weather system from the west will spread rain across
the waters from west to east. Winds will remain below 20 knots
and seas below 5 feet through the period.

Outlook /Monday through Thursday/...

Monday... Moderate confidence. Warm front with weak low pressure
along it may kick up southeast to south winds to near 25 kt
gusts and seas could build to 5-6 ft over the outer waters.

Sca may be needed.

Monday night... Winds diminishing to below SCA gusts but seas
will only slowly subside.

Tuesday/Tuesday night... Expecting winds and seas below sca
levels.

Wednesday and Thursday... SCA likely. NW winds ahead of advancing
strong high pressure, along with cold air aloft over the
relatively warmer waters, will lead to good momentum transfer
over the waters. Should see gusts to at least 25-30 kt over the
outer waters, especially off of eastern ma. Seas building to 5-8
ft over the eastern waters and 5-6 ft over the southern waters,
south of the islands.

Box watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for
anz254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb/gaf
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Gaf
aviation... Wtb/gaf
marine... Wtb/gaf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 7 mi39 min 38°F 37°F1026.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi102 min 40°F 37°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 21 mi27 min ENE 8 G 8.9 37°F 1027 hPa (+1.3)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 23 mi39 min 1026.8 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 24 mi39 min NE 5.1 G 7 40°F 1026.8 hPa
FRXM3 24 mi39 min 40°F 36°F
44090 27 mi23 min 37°F2 ft
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi39 min ENE 6 G 7 1027.3 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi39 min N 8 G 8.9 39°F 39°F1026.3 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi102 min NNE 6 40°F 1025 hPa38°F
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 32 mi37 min 39°F1 ft1026.6 hPa (+1.4)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 33 mi39 min N 8 G 8.9 39°F 39°F1026.6 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 35 mi39 min NNE 8.9 G 11 1027 hPa
PVDR1 36 mi39 min N 8.9 G 11 40°F 1026.5 hPa37°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi39 min ENE 4.1 G 9.9 1026.1 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 41 mi39 min NNE 6 G 12 38°F 39°F1026.3 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi32 min 40°F6 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi32 minno data10.00 miOvercast36°F33°F93%1026.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA13 mi34 minVar 510.00 miOvercast40°F35°F83%1026.7 hPa
Vineyard Haven, Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi34 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast39°F34°F82%1026.6 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi35 minN 710.00 miOvercast36°F33°F89%1027 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi35 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast39°F34°F82%1026.8 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Bird Island, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Bird Island
Click for Map
Sat -- 05:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     4.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:10 PM EDT     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:58 PM EDT     4.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:01 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.30.81.62.53.54.24.33.62.41.10.2-0.100.51.22.13.24.14.442.91.50.3

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:04 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Sat -- 05:05 AM EDT     3.83 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:22 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:16 AM EDT     -4.37 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:26 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Sat -- 04:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:35 PM EDT     4.19 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:59 PM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Sat -- 11:44 PM EDT     -4.32 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-3.7-2.8-0.82.63.53.83.73.11.8-2.4-3.8-4.3-4.2-3.5-22.23.54.14.23.82.9-0.2-3.1-4.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.