Monday, March18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mattapoisett Center, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 6:54PM Monday March 18, 2019 11:42 AM EDT (15:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:02PMMoonset 5:35AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 1005 Am Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
This afternoon..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1005 Am Edt Mon Mar 18 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres builds over the waters this afternoon and Tue, moving offshore Wed. A cold front and possible low pres will move across the waters late Thu or Thu night, followed by gusty nw winds Fri. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mattapoisett Center, MA
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location: 41.61, -70.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 181357
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
957 am edt Mon mar 18 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will bring quiet weather through Wednesday.

Increasing risk of rain Thursday as a cold front and possible
low pressure move across the region, then drier and blustery
Friday. Dry weather next weekend with below normal temperatures
Saturday then milder Sunday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Morning soundings show a narrow zone of high relative humidity
in the 800 to 850 mb layer. Lots of sunshine... Sun angle similar
to late september... Expect some locally generated lift with
patchy diurnal cumulus.

National map shows high pressure centered over the plains but
reaching east toward new england. With a lack of any shortwaves
crossing the area, expect a sunny day with patchy diurnal clouds
and seasonable daytime temperatures.

Small adjustments made to hourly temperatures, otherwise no
changes to the forecast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Mid level trough remains across the northeast and additional
shortwaves are rotating through the flow. One shortwave
approaches from the gt lakes tonight moving into new eng late
tonight into early tue, with another one moving through late
tue Tue evening.

Models indicate increasing low and mid level moisture tonight
ahead of the first shortwave which will result in a period of
mostly cloudy skies. Hi-res guidance suggesting a few flurries
will be possible, but nothing more as moisture is limited.

Clouds exit early Tue behind first shortwave with sunshine for
much of the day, then clouds likely return by late in the day
ahead of next impulse.

Temps: expect lows mostly in the 20s tonight with highs tue
similar to today, mainly upper 30s to mid 40s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights ...

* moderating temperatures Wednesday. Dry and breezy
* chance for wet weather around Thursday are increasing
* coldest air Saturday
* mild air returns Sunday
* looking dry for now early next week
Tuesday night and Wednesday...

by midweek we begin to see a transition from the generally zonal,
flat flow of the previous several days to a more active and
amplified pattern. What a few days ago looked to be a mostly dry
pattern breakdown is showing more and more indications that it will
end up being quite a wet system on Thursday.

First, the coldest night of the extended period is expected Tuesday
night. Under remnant high pressure, clear skies, and light winds
temperatures will radiate into the 20s. This quiet weather continues
into Wednesday as the high lingers just offshore, close enough to
keep us dry and mostly sunny early before clouds encroach by
afternoon evening. Winds on Wednesday back out of the SW on the
backside of the high, ahead of incoming low pressure. The surface
gradient between these two systems tightens and brings breezy south
winds with moderating temperatures Wednesday. High make it into the
upper 40s to near 50.

Wednesday night and Thursday...

the main message for this time period is an increasing chance of
significantly wet weather around early Thursday morning through
early Friday morning. We see a potent surface low and associated mid
level trough sinking south through the great lakes region toward new
england late Wednesday. Continued SW flow ahead of the cold front
pulls in pwats approaching 0.75". Coincident isentropic lift, a 35-
45kt llj, and positioning under the rrq of an upper level jet will
help with lift ahead of the lagging vortmax and bring widespread
rain during the day Thursday. Depending on timing we could initially
see some snow in the early morning hours in the higher elevations.

One fly in the ointment is the trend of some of the latest 00z
guidance to generate a secondary low over the southeast us coast
that phases with this low, eventually tracking over southern new
england during this same time period. Temperature profiles in both
models currently indicate an inside runner all rain situation, but
likely much wetter than we've been thinking. The gfs-fv3 had been an
outlier in showing evolution like this up until now, but other
models are shifting toward it recently so something to keep an eye
on as we approach. A relatively benign cold front pushes through
Thursday night and we'll see lows in the 30s.

Friday through Sunday...

very dynamic and fluid forecast beyond Thursday especially as we see
how several lobes of energy rotating around the exiting trough
evolve over southern new england. Mild (highs in the 40s) post
frontal air mass is drier but still should see clouds hanging around
with some rain chances. Finally a second cold front sweeps through
Friday night bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air and highs down
into the low 40s to start the weekend. Post frontal airmass is much
drier though, so sunny skies should help balance out the influx of
colder air. Gusty north winds increase with good CAA however and a
tightening gradient between the exiting and incoming systems. Weak
ridging and more dry, sunny weather expected Sunday with a return of
spring-like temperatures.

Aviation 14z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Vfr this afternoon. Mainly few-sct050-060 today. Tonight a
period of bkn050-080 with a few flurries possible.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night:VFR.

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy. Chance sn.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
ra.

Thursday night:VFR. Slight chance ra.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

Quiet boating weather through Tue with winds and seas below sca.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night through Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Climate
In just three weeks, 70 degrees will change from near record to
no surprise... And in another 1 1 2 months just a part of the
landscape.

Record high temps march 18
pvd 73 2011
bos 74 2012
bdl 72 2012
orh 74 2012
average first occurence of 70 degree high (pd of record)
pvd april 8
bos april 8
bdl april 1
orh april 11
first average 70 degree high temp (pd of record)
pvd may 20
bos may 27
bdl may 10
orh may 29

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kjc bw
near term... Wtb kjc bw
short term... Kjc
long term... Bw
aviation... Wtb kjc bw
marine... Wtb kjc bw
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 7 mi48 min 35°F 38°F1024.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi117 min W 6 34°F 1025 hPa14°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 21 mi42 min WNW 13 G 15 1025.7 hPa (+0.6)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 23 mi48 min 36°F 41°F1024.7 hPa
FRXM3 24 mi54 min 35°F 16°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 24 mi48 min W 12 G 18 35°F 1024.5 hPa
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 26 mi32 min W 7.8 G 9.7 33°F 37°F1024.5 hPa16°F
44090 27 mi42 min 37°F2 ft
PRUR1 30 mi48 min 38°F 11°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 32 mi117 min NW 7 37°F 1025 hPa15°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 32 mi48 min NW 6 G 8.9 35°F 37°F1024.7 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 32 mi48 min NNW 9.9 G 16 37°F 1025 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 33 mi48 min NW 15 G 20 34°F 40°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 35 mi54 min W 8 G 11 35°F 40°F1024.9 hPa
PVDR1 36 mi48 min WNW 8 G 17 37°F 1024.6 hPa12°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 38 mi48 min N 9.9 G 15 35°F 38°F1024.1 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 41 mi48 min NNW 7 G 11 35°F 42°F1024.8 hPa
44097 - Block Island, RI (154) 49 mi42 min 41°F2 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA12 mi47 minW 1110.00 miFair37°F10°F33%1024 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA13 mi49 minW 810.00 miFair38°F15°F39%1024.1 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA15 mi49 minW 9 G 1510.00 miFair36°F16°F44%1024.4 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA21 mi50 minWNW 910.00 miA Few Clouds36°F12°F37%1024 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi50 minW 7 G 1510.00 miFair37°F12°F36%1024 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Bird Island, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Bird Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:34 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     4.93 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:12 PM EDT     -0.53 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:45 PM EDT     4.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.400.81.93.14.24.94.73.72.20.8-0.1-0.5-0.40.21.12.33.64.54.742.71.1-0.1

Tide / Current Tables for Woods Hole, Massachusetts Current (use with caution)
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Woods Hole
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:26 AM EDT     3.39 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:49 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:30 AM EDT     -3.80 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 03:07 PM EDT     0.01 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:02 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 06:57 PM EDT     3.84 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:40 PM EDT     -0.06 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.2-2.5-1.51.12.233.33.32.6-0.7-2.9-3.7-3.7-3.2-2.3-0.72.133.63.83.52.5-1.7-3.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.