Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:25 PM Moonrise 2:05 AM   Moonset 11:38 AM

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LEZ147 Expires:202405020815;;462401 Fzus51 Kcle 020127 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 927 pm edt Wed may 1 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-020815- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 927 pm edt Wed may 1 2024
Overnight - West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday night - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. Partly cloudy in the evening, then becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday.
the water temperature off toledo is 58 degrees, off cleveland 51 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 020116 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 916 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
A weak cold front will move east through the area tonight and stall across the Lower Ohio Valley. This front will lift back north as a warm front on Thursday, followed by a cold front on Friday into Saturday. Another weak cold front may cross the area on Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
9:15 PM EDT Update...
Forecast remains valid per latest trends in obs and model guidance. No changes appeared necessary.

Previous Discussion...
A scattered cu-field has developed ahead of a weakening cold front across portions of eastern MI and Northwest OH this afternoon, although NUCAPS sounding indicate an abundance of mid-level dry air so not really anticipating any precipitation associated with the front apart from perhaps a brief isolated shower or two this afternoon/evening.

Otherwise, attention then turns towards Thursday as this weak cold front will lift back north as a warm front. There may be enhanced convergence with the interaction of the lifting warm front and developing lake breeze Thursday afternoon and evening, particularly across north-central and Northwest Ohio. Started with a slight chance of thunderstorms at this point for Thursday afternoon/evening, but think that further adjustments may be necessary if trends continue.

Above-average temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s will persist through the near term period.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
Friday will be the start of an unsettled weather pattern that will carry on into next week. A mid/upper shortwave trough over the northern Plains in the morning will deamplify and lift into the vicinity of James Bay by Saturday, with a weakening surface low taking a similar track as the closed and occluding system tries to become vertically stacked. This will result in a weakening cold front slowly pivoting into the area late Friday, with the front further slowing as it attempts to cross the region Friday night into Saturday, likely stalling and washing out in far eastern Ohio, western PA, and the Appalachians by Saturday night. Deepening warm/moist advection and the approaching front will start to bring scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area Friday as boundary layer heating of increasingly moist low-levels results in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/Kg, with slightly more SBCAPE. However, there is not much of a trigger for convection until the front moves in, and poor mid-level lapse rates of only around 5 to 5.5 C/Km will prevent any higher instability. This will limit the coverage of the showers/storms during the day Friday, with most not arriving until Friday night, and it will also greatly limit any severe weather potential, with generally garden variety thunderstorms expected.
Once the front starts to slowly cross the region Friday night, the showers/storms will become more widespread. Still not expecting anything severe since the instability will be waning overnight and the main jet dynamics lift well to the NW, but lift from the pivoting frontal boundary will allow it to rain in most areas Friday night.

As mentioned above, the front will start to stall and wash out over eastern/southeastern areas Saturday and Saturday night. This is due to mid/upper ridging holding strong over the eastern CONUS and the dynamics becoming displaced well to the NW. This will keep fairly widespread showers/storms over the area through Saturday, especially east of I-77. Cannot rule out locally gusty winds with any thunderstorms, but the main impact will be locally heavy rainfall from slow moving and training storms Friday night and Saturday. The stalling boundary, weak shear profiles, and deep layer flow aligned parallel to the boundary all support slow moving, training convection, and with seasonably high PWATs averaging 1.50 inches, this could lead to localized flooding. Eastern Ohio and western PA have had drier weather the past 2 weeks, so they can take some rain, and that is where the risk for training will be, so will leave any flood mention out of the HWO for now. Coverage of precip will gradually decrease Saturday night as the front washes out.

Highs Friday will reach the low/mid 80s with sticky dew points in the low 60s. Highs Saturday will cool into the upper 60s/mid 70s.
Lows Friday night will drop into the upper 50s/low 60s, with ranges of about 55-60 Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A few showers and thunderstorms will continue Sunday as moisture tied to the old washing out front remains in the area, but coverage should be far less than Saturday leading to a nice overall day.
Attention then turns to what could potentially be a very wet and stormy pattern next week as a deep mid/upper trough develops over the Rockies and slowly moves through the Plains through midweek, forcing height rises and a broad SW flow to develop from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Several lead shortwaves ejecting out of the main trough will likely traverse an active baroclinic zone oriented SW to NE, and this combined with broad warm/moist advection will support waves of convection.
Guidance is in poor agreement on where the boundary will set up and the timing of shortwave energy, as is expected this many days out, so stayed with NBM PoPs Monday through Wednesday which has a gradual increase to likely/categorical by Tuesday and Wednesday. It will definitely not rain all the time, but the windows of drier weather will be pinpointed as we get closer. The location of the boundary will also determine the extent of any severe weather or flooding threats. What is certain is that it will turn very warm and humid again. Highs in the low/mid 70s Sunday and Monday with reach the upper 70s/low 80s by Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z Thursday THROUGH Monday/
VFR and fair weather expected through 00Z/Fri as a ridge builds from the Upper Midwest. At the surface, a weakening and moisture-starved cold front just east of KPCW and just west of KMNN at 23:30Z/Wed continues to sweep E'ward and should exit the rest of our region by ~06Z/Thurs. Behind the front, a ridge builds from the west through 00Z/Fri.

Regional surface winds trend SW'erly around 5 to 15 knots ahead of the cold front before veering to NW'erly behind the front.
Any gusts up to ~20 knots are expected to cease via nocturnal cooling-related stabilization of the boundary layer by 00Z/Thurs.
Surface winds are expected to become variable around 5 knots within ~2 hours after the front's passage due to a weaker MSLP gradient accompanying the ridge. A NW'erly to NE'erly lake breeze around 5 to 10 knots is expected within ~5 miles of Lake Erie from ~15Z/Thurs to ~00Z/Fri. This includes KERI and KCLE.

Outlook...Non-VFR expected with periodic/scattered showers and thunderstorms Thursday night through Monday.

MARINE
Quiet marine weather will continue through the weekend outside of locally higher winds and waves from thunderstorms since pressure gradients will remain weak. Winds will turn light and variable tonight followed by ENE at 5-15 knots Thursday as high pressure builds into the eastern Great Lakes. Winds will then oscillate between ENE and ESE at 5-15 knots Thursday night through Friday night until turning more SE at 10-15 knots late Saturday and finally S to SW Sunday while decreasing to 5-10 knots. ENE winds of 10-15 knots will then redevelop by Monday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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