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LEZ147 Expires:202405080215;;808084 Fzus51 Kcle 072220 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 620 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-080215- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 620 pm edt Tue may 7 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then showers with Thunderstorms likely late this evening. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Wednesday night - West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots. Showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday.
the water temperature off toledo is 62 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees, and off erie 53 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 080134 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 934 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will lift north of the area this evening before a cold front sweeps east across the region late tonight into Wednesday morning. A series of disturbances will cross the local area Wednesday night through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
930 PM Update...
Thunderstorms have entered the western CWA, although they have quickly begun to weaken with weakened instability closer to the warm front. A Tornado Watch remains in effect for western counties through 3Z and an additional Tornado Watch has been issued for additional counties in the southern portion of the CWA until 8Z. ESRH values continue to linger near 300 m2/s2 with shear values estimated to be near 40-60 knots. These values are higher south of the area, resulting in the ongoing convection, but development further north cannot confidently be ruled out at this point. Highest confidence of strong thunderstorm development and isolated tornadoes is along the southern CWA
Will continue to monitor over the next few hours to see how the atmosphere evolves given the convection south of the area.

630 PM Update...
A warm front continues to slowly move north this evening with it currently extending east near the southern shore of Lake Erie.
The positioning of this boundary has allowed the entire CWA to remain in the warm sector of the low this evening and in an area of enhanced instability and high shear values. Looking upstream, numerous discrete cells have already produced large, damaging hail and tornadoes. These cells will continue to move east, entering the CWA around 00Z for western counties and moving east throughout the early overnight. Hodographs continue to suggest a favorable environment for rotating updrafts which suggests a continued threat of tornadoes and large hail into the area. Will continue to monitor the mesoscale environment. The Tornado Watch remains in effect for western counties, but have added Marion and Morrow Counties to the watch with this update.

500 PM Update...
A Tornado Watch has been issued for the western 2 tiers of counties that will remain in effect through 11PM EDT. Weak showers are currently moving east across the area, but are not acting to stabilize the atmosphere. Upstream scattered thunderstorms will continue to strengthen and move into the watch area around 8PM EDT. A couple tornadoes are possible, along with damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph and large hail.

Previous Discussion...
The first round of showers and non-severe storms, associated with a shortwave, are lifting across the local area this afternoon. The showers and storms are already showing signs of weakening. It's important to note that this round of precipitation is not the main show for severe weather today; the main show is currently blossoming across northeastern Illinois and northwestern Indiana which will continue moving east towards the CWA this afternoon into the first few hours of this evening. By 8 PM or so, the storms should be approaching or entering the western reaches of the CWA before continuing to track east through the CWA through about Midnight.

Overall, the severe weather threat remains unchanged and there's still potential for all hazards of severe weather (tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind gusts) given the impressive wind field, effective bulk shear values of over 60 knots, and hodographs/soundings that support potential for strong and rotating updrafts, but there's still a touch of uncertainty regarding the instability and warm air/moisture advection. Latest high resolution guidance members have a narrow corridor of MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2000 J/kg in the western and especially southwestern zones of the CWA (aka the area in the Enhanced and Slight risks), but this window may be brief which could make the difference between a severe weather risk and a more significant severe weather risk. However, as of writing, MLCAPE values are currently around 1000 J/kg just to the west of the CWA with slightly higher values further southwest and expect instability to increase over the next several hours so don't have concerns with the forecast at this point. Biggest area of concern for severe weather potential will lie near the I-75 corridor, where soundings support an environment favorable for tornadoes and large hail.
Storms should weaken as they move east across the CWA especially as the sun goes down and diurnal instability wanes. Storms should exit to the east near or shortly after Midnight tonight.

Generally expect dry weather for much of Wednesday before the next wave of showers/thunderstorms lifts northeast towards the CWA by Wednesday night.

Tonight's lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s with Wednesday's highs climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Wednesday. Wednesday night's lows will be in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
Upper-level trough swings southeast across the Great Lakes region on Thursday with the associated surface low moving east across the Ohio Valley. Rain showers are expected with isolated thunderstorms, especially during the first half of the day. Precipitation chances decrease through the evening/overnight hours with isolated to scattered light rain showers lingering into the day Friday as troughing persists on the backside of the departing low. High pressure briefly builds in Friday night.

Temperatures in the short term period will be a bit cooler than the previous few days as that first upper-level trough swings through, with highs in the 60s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Another upper-level trough and weak low move southeast across the Great Lakes region with scattered showers and isolated afternoon thunderstorms Saturday through Sunday (best PoPs of 50-60% on Saturday). Uncertainty in the synoptic-scale pattern makes for a low confidence forecast on Monday and Tuesday. Main trend is for low chance PoPs each day and gradually warming temperatures (likely in the 70s by Tuesday).

AVIATION /00Z Wednesday THROUGH Sunday/
Generally widespread VFR conditions are being observed across the area this evening other than in patchy areas of lower ceilings resulting in isolated MVFR conditions at terminals.
Over the next couple hours, convection is expected to push east across the area with strong to severe convection possible.
Looking upstream, discrete cell convection is nearing the OH/IN border with some storms having a history of producing large hail and tornadoes. With the entire area in the warm sector of the low pressure system, conditions remain favorable for this severe weather to continue into the area. As a result, KTOL and KFDY remain under a Tornado Watch until 11 PM EDT. As these storms moves east after sunset, some instability will be lost and storms will gradually weaken, but cannot rule out isolated stronger storms moving through the entire area. Generally speaking, all storms should exit the area by 06Z Wednesday. With the discrete nature of these cells it was difficult to pinpoint the exact location of the storms and thus opted to handle storms with a TEMPO that highlights the best timing for impacts. These conditions include wind gusts up to 35 knots and visibilities dropping to MVFR, possibly IFR in the heaviest showers. As the showers taper from west to east, conditions should rebound to VFR with the exception of KYNG and KERI which may have lingering MVFR ceilings until sunrise Wednesday.

Winds this evening will remain out of the south-southwest at 10-14 knots, occasionally gusting up to 25 knots for western terminals. These winds will gain a more westerly component by Wednesday morning at 5-10 knots. Near sunset on Wednesday, winds will become light and variable.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms through Sunday.

MARINE
A warm front lifts north across Lake Erie this evening with winds becoming southwest around 15 knots. A subsequent cold front moves east across the region late tonight into early Wednesday morning with westerly winds of 10-15 knots expected through the day Wednesday. Low pressure moves east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday with easterly to northeastly flow Thursday morning becoming more north and northwest by Thursday night. A small craft advisory is possible primarily for wave heights around 4 feet in the central basin Thursday and Thursday night. A weak low moves southeast across the Great Lakes but winds look to stay at or below 10 knots.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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