Wednesday, March20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chardon, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:27AMSunset 7:38PM Wednesday March 20, 2019 7:10 PM EDT (23:10 UTC) Moonrise 6:18PMMoonset 6:34AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:201903210215;;666137 Fzus51 Kcle 202011 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 411 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>148-210215- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- 411 Pm Edt Wed Mar 20 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain early, then rain from late evening on. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming west. A chance of rain in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers in the morning, then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 4 to 7 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 37 degrees, off cleveland 36 degrees and off erie 34 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chardon, OH
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location: 41.61, -81.22     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 202003
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
403 pm edt Wed mar 20 2019

Synopsis
An broad area of low pressure will move across the area tonight.

This feature will move into new england and strengthen on
Friday where it will continue to influence the local weather.

High pressure will build in over the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
Rain associated with the first of two upper level shortwaves is
making its way across indiana at this hour. Radar returns are
not representative of rainfall as dry sub-cloud layer is
preventing most of it from reaching the ground. This spotty
precipitation will fill in more tonight as a second wave dips
south from the upper lakes and phases with the first wave. This
trough will arrive later tonight with a track going west to
east across lake erie. This relatively weak system is progged to
arrive a few hours later than earlier forecasts, and further
south. The best chance for rain will occur after midnight though
rainfall rates will be mainly light especially as that dry sub-
cloud layer erodes. Tonight as the wave closes off we could see
a period of moderate rain as the deformation zone slides in
from the west, mainly between 06-10z. P-type should remain all
rain due to limited moisture in the dendritic zone. However,
could see a period of seeding aloft towards daybreak which could
bring a brief mix of rain and snow.

As the shortwave pulls out Thursday the main precip shield will
shift east. However low level moisture trapped beneath the
inversion could keep a low stratus deck with some light
rain drizzle through at least midday. Temperatures will likely
struggle to warm into the middle 40s. There will be a brief
period of breaks in the clouds, mainly in the west, by the
afternoon evening. Then a secondary shortwave will rotate
around the upper level trough bringing moisture back into the
area. This again will be limited on ice crystal growth which
will favor rain initially. Believe that evaporative cooling and
lowering thicknesses will favor a transition over to rain-snow
mix after midnight, and then all snow around daybreak.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
A cold front will be on our doorstep Friday morning as a piece of
upper level energy dives south out of canada towards the great lakes
region. Moisture depth will increase through the day as the upper
level low swings across NE ohio on its way towards pennsylvania new
york. We expect to see precipitation blossom on Friday as the cold
pool at 500mb moves overhead with likely pops or better east of i-77
and chance pops to the west. Precip type will likely be a wet snow
in far NE ohio and NW pa but the rest of the area may see a
rain snow mix as surface temperatures climb towards the mid to upper
30s. Warm ground temperatures and unfavorable daytime timing will be
a limiting factor for accumulations but could see and an inch or two
in NW pa, mainly over the higher areas.

Deeper moisture quickly pulls away Friday night as high pressure
builds overhead. Did delay the clearing trend as lake effect clouds
will linger through much of the night but even these should
dissipate on Saturday morning. Made corresponding changes to Friday
night mins, raising temperatures in the east and lowering in the
west where clearing should occur quickly. Mostly clear skies
expected Saturday and into the first part of the day on Sunday.

Saturday may feel warmer than expected with mostly sunny skies and
light winds. Southwest flow develops by Sunday with temperatures in
the upper 40s to low 50s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Upper trough will linger over eastern canada into the first part of
next week. We are watching models try to resolve energy moving out
of the plains to the south of the trough to determine chances of
precipitation Sunday night into Monday. The GFS remains the farthest
north with a wave of low pressure tracking east through the ohio
valley on Monday while the other long range models show the surface
high overhead and the low passing far enough to the south that any
precipitation is minimal. For now have made few changes to the
forecast with a low chance of rain snow Sunday night and Monday.

Temperatures drop back to near normal Monday followed by below
normal temperatures with low level cold advection on Tuesday.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Clouds will overspread the area from the west this afternoon.

Areas of mainly light rain will likewise move in from west to
east starting this evening through the overnight. The rain
should diminish in coverage after daybreak tomorrow, however
with the passage of a cold front a low stratus deck is expected
with ceilings between 800-1,500 feet. At this time, it appears
any visibility restrictions will be brief and localized in
nature. Otherwise, ceilings generally in the 035-050 range
expected tonight with MVFR ceilings after midnight. Surface
winds 190-210 degrees at 10-14 kts this afternoon, with
occasional surface gusts 18-22 kts possible surface winds
veering to 300 degrees post frontal Thursday morning.

Outlook... Non-vfr conditions persisting in light rain into
Thursday. Non-vfr possible again Friday.

Marine
A weak area of low pressure will move southeast across lake erie
overnight with a second trough and associated cold front moving
south across the lake Friday. Winds are expected to be 15 knots or
less until Friday when winds shift to the northwest and increase to
20-30 knots. This will lead to waves building to 5 to 7 feet where
the lake is ice free. Winds will remain above 20 knots on portions
of lake erie through Friday night. Better marine conditions expected
over the weekend as high pressure builds southeast across the great
lakes region.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jamison
near term... Jamison
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Jamison
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 11 mi41 min N 8 G 8 42°F 42°F1017.6 hPa31°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 23 mi41 min N 2.9 G 6 45°F 1017.2 hPa27°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH14 mi26 minS 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast48°F24°F40%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3----------------S8S10S13S11
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1 day agoW3CalmCalmS4--------------SW4SW4SW6W6W5W9W10
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2 days agoN4CalmS3Calm--------------CalmSW3SW3SW4NW8NW9W8W8W9NW10NW10NW6W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.