Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:44 PM Moonrise 4:01 PM   Moonset 3:00 AM

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LEZ147 Expires:202405191415;;467967 Fzus51 Kcle 190751 Nshcle
nearshore marine forecast national weather service cleveland oh 351 am edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lez145>147-191415- vermilion to avon point oh-avon point to willowick oh- willowick to geneva-on-the lake oh- 351 am edt Sun may 19 2024
Today - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog early. Waves 1 foot or less. Tonight - East winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday - Southeast winds less than 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Tuesday through Thursday.
the water temperature off toledo is 65 degrees, off cleveland 56 degrees, and off erie 52 degrees.

LEZ100
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FXUS61 KCLE 192258 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 658 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front approaches from the northwest this evening before lifting to the north as a warm front on Monday. A stronger cold front will cross through the region Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
6:30 PM Update...

The forecast remains on track this evening. Chance PoPs in NW Ohio this evening still look good with the broken line of convection currently over northern Indiana and SE Michigan. This activity will sink into the region over the next 1-2 hours and could produce brief heavy rain and gusty winds given MUCAPE up to 2000 J/Kg and high DCAPE up to 1400 J/Kg. However, the cold frontal boundary is already stalling as it runs into building mid/upper ridging, so the convection will not make it any farther than NW Ohio before it moves away from the upper support and diurnal cooling sets in. Everything should be largely dissipated by 03 or 04Z.

Original Discussion...

A very warm May afternoon with everyone outside of a lake breeze along the eastern lakeshore surging well into the 80s, with the Toledo area approaching 90. A weak cold front will approach Northwest Ohio this evening before lifting well to our north as a warm front on Monday. Outside of the front itself forcing is limited, but cumulus are percolating along it from Indiana into southeast lower Michigan with a few showers / storms attempting to fire. Expect isolated to scattered activity to fill in and sag towards the Toledo area this evening before gradually dissipating between sunset and midnight due to a lack of forcing and gradual stabilization with the loss of daytime heating. Very weak shear and forcing preclude any kind of organized severe weather threat, but steep low-level lapse rates and large DCAPE do suggest a strong to locally damaging downburst can't be ruled out with the strongest cell or two. Greatest concern for a stronger storm is just northwest of our area, but it's worth watching if any stronger storms to drift towards Toledo this evening. Some guidance tries re-firing a few showers in the vicinity of North Central Ohio during the pre-dawn Monday, perhaps as modest warm air advection kicks in and interacts with any lingering outflow boundaries from this evening's activity.
Confidence in this scenario is very low so left mentionable POPs out of the forecast after midnight. The rest of northern OH and northwestern PA will confidently remain dry tonight with very patchy river valley fog from eastern OH into western PA.

The Monday and Monday night period will remain very warm and generally dry beneath strong ridging aloft. Expect plenty of sun to start the day Monday. Strong heating of a fairly moist airmass will yield modest to moderate, uncapped CAPE into Monday afternoon. It's hard to find much forcing, though the combination of a lake breeze, a very subtle vort max (evident on multiple models at 250mb), and modest low-level warm air advection could be enough for isolated to widely scattered storms to develop across northern and perhaps western portions of the forecast area during the afternoon. Have slight chance to low chance (20-30%) POPs to cover this, highest along and just inland from the central lakeshore. Like today, shear and forcing will be quite weak which will generally limit any severe weather threat if storms can develop Monday. However, the thermodynamics could still support a couple of stronger downbursts and perhaps marginal hail with the most intense cells...most likely with any cells that fire on and get a boost from the lake breeze. Look for activity to gradually diminish after sunset Monday night given a general lack of forcing.

Lows tonight will range from the mid to upper 50s in a few interior valleys from Northeast OH into Northwest PA to the mid to even upper 60s along and west of I-71. Highs on Monday well into the 80s, with potential to get close to 90 from Cleveland west towards Toledo and Findlay, assuming showers / storms don't become more widespread than expected. Lows Monday night will stay in the 60s, with a few spots (such as Cleveland and Northwest OH) struggling to cool much below 70. It will certainly feel like summer to start the work week!

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
An active short term period is in store as an upper low moves into the Great Lakes region Tuesday night into Wednesday. For Tuesday, a surface boundary will lift across the region accompanied by a weak upper level shortwave. This will support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across Northern Ohio Tuesday afternoon. By Wednesday, the surface low will occlude over the Upper Midwest while its accompanying cold front stalls out in the vicinity of Illinois/Indiana. As the front remains stalled, robust southerly flow will continue to fuel a warm and moist airmass characterized by dewpoints in the lower 60s and temperatures in the upper 80s. The timing of the frontal passage continues to slow down with the front not entering western counties until late Wednesday night. Given the warm and humid airmass in place with MLCAPE values progged between 1500-2000 J/kg accompanied by bulk shear values of 30-35 kts, a severe weather threat remains on the table for Wednesday. An inhibiting factor will be cloud debris from earlier convection early Wednesday which could minimize destabilization across Northern Ohio.

Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected in the short term period with highs reaching the mid 80s to near 90s degrees on Tuesday.
Still some uncertainty with the precipitation forecast on Tuesday, but those who remain dry and mainly sunny could flirt with 90 degrees Tuesday afternoon. Warm again on Wednesday ahead of the cold front passage, though more expansive cloud cover with scattered showers and storms during the day Wednesday will keep highs closer to the low to mid 80s. Warm overnight lows on Tuesday night into the upper 60s to lower 70s turn cooler behind the frontal passage Wednesday night as they settle in the low 60s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Quieter long term period as PoPs exit from west to east behind the frontal passage Thursday. A ridge of high pressure builds overhead by Friday and will keep us dry to end the week. Precipitation comes back into the forecast for next weekend as the previous cold front lifts back north as a warm front. Near normal temperatures through the long term in the mid to upper 70s for highs and mid to upper 50s for lows.

AVIATION /18Z Sunday THROUGH Friday/
VFR across the board this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are likely to develop from northeast IN into southeast MI late this afternoon and will likely sag into Northwest OH this evening before dissipating. Included a window of VCTS at both TOL and FDY and took a shot at a brief TEMPO for TSRA at TOL between 23-1z. Confidence is not especially high but most models at the least have scattered convection around TOL this evening.
One or two storms near TOL may produce localized gusty winds.

Otherwise, VFR is expected through the TAF period for most.
Patchy fog is possible tonight, mainly in river valleys from interior eastern OH into PA, and possibly near the lakeshore. No TAF sites are in prone river valleys so largely left it out, though hung on to a few hours of MVFR vsby (in mist) at ERI.
Isolated convection is possible Monday afternoon. Coverage should be limited, but a lake breeze will be a likely focus for any activity that does develop. Given the lake breeze will be sitting near or over CLE much of the afternoon, did include a few hours of VCTS there with this update for their 30 hour TAF.

North-northwest winds of up to 10 knots continue this afternoon.
Winds go light and variable this evening and tonight. South- southwest winds at 5 to 10 knots develop on Monday, with an exception of near the eastern lakeshore (including ERI) where a lake breeze will try to turn winds onshore.

Outlook...Mainly VFR expected outside of any thunderstorms.
Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday and Tuesday afternoons. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are more likely Wednesday afternoon and evening.

MARINE
Quiet conditions continue on Lake Erie to end the weekend and begin the week as high pressure remains overhead. A warm front will lift north across the lake Monday and allow for winds to become southeasterly at 5-10 knots. Low pressure lifts northeastward toward the Northern Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. This low will drag a cold front east across the lake Wednesday night into Thursday.
Winds remain generally southerly ahead of the frontal passage but increase to 10-20 knots during the day Wednesday. Winds then turn westerly at 10-15 knots behind the front for Thursday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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