Sunrise 6:21 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 4:23 AM   Moonset 6:12 PM

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LEZ142 Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh-reno Beach To The Islands Oh- The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 937 Pm Edt Sun May 5 2024
Overnight - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday - Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Monday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Tuesday - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
see lake erie open lakes forecast for Wednesday through Friday.
the water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 49 degrees, and off erie 54 degrees.

LEZ100
No data

FXUS61 KCLE 060550 AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Cleveland OH 150 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
A cold front exits the area to the the east tonight. High pressure builds in from the north for tonight and Monday. A warm front comes through Tuesday, followed by a cold front Tuesday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
930 PM Update...
All showers and thunderstorms have moved east of the area leaving dry, but cloudy conditions across the CWA These conditions will continue overnight with patchy fog still possible in far NE OH and NW PA. Earlier this evening, NW PA had visibilities drop to less than 1/4SM briefly, but they have since recovered to have visibilities of 4SM. This general area will need to be monitored for any headline potential. Motorists should use caution overnight and during the Monday morning commute as visibilities may quickly be reduced.

630 PM Update...
With the evening update, there are a couple hazards across the area worth keeping an eye on. The first are the few isolated thunderstorms that continue to linger in the Mahoning Valley, but these will continue to move east out of the CWA over the next few hours as the atmosphere continues to stabilize. The second hazard is the development of fog along the Ashtabula and Erie County lakeshore zones that has resulted in visibilities dropping as low as 1/2SM. Will keep an eye on conditions, but confidence is growing that far NE OH and NW PA will experience fog development overnight as winds weaken, which may warrant a Dense Fog Advisory. The only question that lingers is if temperatures will cool enough due to widespread cloud cover that is expected. Aside from these features, the bulk of the forecast is unchanged with this update.

Previous Discussion...
A weak cold front is currently pushing through NEOH and NWPA this afternoon. There are a few scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with that front. We did have one isolated thunderstorm that produced a localized severe microburst right over the KYNG ASOS which measured a 74 mph wind gust. The general message for the rest of this evening will be a chance for additional showers and isolated storms over far NEOH and NWPA until that front clears through. A marginal threat still exist for an isolated damaging wind gust with any stronger storm.

High pressure across southern Ontario and the Upper Great Lakes region will build in tonight and Monday. Locations that saw rainfall this afternoon and evening may see some areas of fog develop late tonight into early Monday morning. This fog potential will be mainly across NEOH and NWPA. Overnight temps will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. High pressure will bring fair weather conditions tomorrow with mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies. Locations further north and closer to the lakeshore may see a little more sunshine than areas further south. Temperatures will be cooler on Monday with mid 60s near the lakeshore and lower 70s southward. Fair weather will continue Monday night upper 40s to middle 50s for overnight temps.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
With the surface low and upper level low vertically stacked over the Northern Plains, progression will be slow across the region through middle part of the week. Upper level ridge axis over the east part of the Great Lakes region Tuesday morning will push east and allow thickness layers to increase, winds becoming southwesterly, and moisture to increase Tuesday through Wednesday. At the surface, a warm front will push northeast across the northern Ohio Tuesday morning and allowing the warm sector to push north across the CWA during the day on Tuesday. Showers and storms will likely develop along the northward moving warm front and ahead of the cold front and push southeast Tuesday evening. There are some model differences on how far north the mid 60s surface dewpoint tracks across Ohio. A slight risk of severe storms is forecast across much of western and central Ohio on Tuesday. Will maintain categorical rain chances across northwest Ohio Tuesday morning and high pops across the northeast Ohio and northwest Pennsylvania Tuesday afternoon. No cold advection is expected Tuesday night as Wednesday highs will climb back up to the upper 70s. Can not rule out a low chance of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon on Wednesday depending on the location of the stalled frontal boundary.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
The main surface low will finally track east across the north half of Ohio Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Have very low confidence in placement of moisture fields at this time. As a result, will maintain elevated rain chance across the area Wednesday night into Thursday and thinking more convection will be confined to areas south of US Highway 30. Cold air will finally push into the region Thursday night into Friday morning as the upper level trough deepens. High temperatures will be below normal Friday and Saturday.
Temperatures will struggle to reach the mid 60s and some areas will not reach 60 for highs on Friday through Sunday under generally mostly cloudy skies.

AVIATION /06Z Monday THROUGH Friday/
Fog has developed in portions of far NE OH at this hour at YNG where rain fell previously yesterday afternoon. Also have some lingering low level MVFR stratus across as well, but for the most part, drier is air is beginning to move in from the north as high pressure builds into the region. Expect all of the restrictions currently being observed to become VFR after 15Z or so once the low level moisture exits to the south.

Outlook...Non-VFR likely with periodic showers and thunderstorms on Tuesday into early Wednesday with another system.

MARINE
A cold front will track east across the rest of Lake Erie this evening. Surface winds will become northerly this evening and increase 10 to 15 knots with waves building to 2 feet and becoming northeasterly on Monday as high pressure builds from the central to eastern Great Lakes. An active and complicated pattern will follow for the remainder of the week. A warm front will lift northeast across the lake early Tuesday with southwesterly winds of 10-15 knots. Another surface low is expected to track east across Ohio on Thursday, pulling a cold air across the lake on Friday. The track of this low may change and have an effect on wind direction, speeds, and wave heights. Strong cold air advection will yield Small Craft Advisory criteria by Friday.

CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None.
PA...None.
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

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