Tuesday, June18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Williston, OH

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 9:12PM Tuesday June 18, 2019 7:56 AM EDT (11:56 UTC) Moonrise 9:29PMMoonset 6:04AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ142 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- 1020 Pm Edt Mon Jun 17 2019
Overnight..Light and variable winds. Cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds less than 10 knots becoming east. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 66 degrees, off cleveland 63 degrees and off erie 61 degrees.
LEZ142 Expires:201906180815;;658043 FZUS51 KCLE 180220 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 1020 PM EDT Mon Jun 17 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ142>144-180815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Williston, OH
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location: 41.62, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 181024
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
624 am edt Tue jun 18 2019

12z aviation forecast update...

Synopsis
A weak stationary front over the area will be nudge southward
as an area of low pressure moves along it this morning. The low
will move east later this morning and force the front south as a
cold front. Another low pressure system will move northeast
along the front Wednesday. A strong low pressure system will
move east across the area Thursday. High pressure builds in
briefly late on Friday. Another area of low pressure may impact
the region over the weekend.

Near term through Wednesday
The low level jet has increased again near 850 mb and
interacting with a stalled out frontal boundary that is near
morrow county east-northward to stark county. A broken line of
convection has redeveloped this morning over north central ohio
just along and north of that boundary over the same areas that
have been hit hard with heavy rainfall over the past few days.

The current flash flood watch GOES until 4 am but we might have
to extend the time a little longer by a few hours for a few
counties across east central ohio. We will make that decision
before 4 am. The main concern now through early this morning
will be the moderate to heavy showers impacting areas that are
completely saturated and can't take anymore rainfall. Additional
flooding is possible through the morning commute. Guidance
finally shows this rain to move mostly out of our area by mid to
late morning. As this weak disturbance moves east later this
morning, it should give the stalled front a nudge southward
today. Most of the area should see a brief break in the rain by
this afternoon and tonight.

A stronger mid level wave will be moving through the 500 mb flow
from the central u.S. Into the ohio river valley region late
tonight into Wednesday. The stalled frontal boundary will begin
to slowly lift northward again late tonight into Wednesday as a
warm front. The first part of the day Wednesday looks relatively
rain free but showers and thunderstorms will increase late in the
day especially along and south of the warm front. We could even
see some stronger convection develop in the warm sector and will
be something to monitor. With high pw values between 1.5 and 2.0
inches, heavy rainfall and additional flooding will be a
concern. Additional flash flood watches may be needed for this
next system.

Short term Wednesday night through Friday night
Models show low pressure moving out of mo into il 00z Thursday
along a stationary front that extends east into central oh. The
low will move east to northern in by 12z Thursday lifting the
front north across the area as a warm front. Expect rain to
spread into the region through the overnight period ahead of the
low. Will have categorical pops west dropping to chance in nwrn
pa. Thursday the low moves east across northern ohio. Guidance
pops are quite high and while its hard to fight the trend, am
concerned that if the area actually is in the warm sector precip
will be more showery and convective across the area while the
more widespread rain in north of the region. For now will keep
pops categorical but watch model trends. Will also taper pops
from the northwest mid late afternoon as drier air tries to move
in behind the low as it exits the region. Thursday night precip
should end quickly as the low moves east and drier air
continues to wrap in. Friday looks like a decent day with high
pressure in place across the area. Friday into Friday night
there will also be an upper ridge across the area however Friday
night, the GFS shows an active warm front approaching from the
southwest raising some concern about the possibility of
overnight convection encroaching into the western counties. Will
go along for now and have chance pops across the west half of
the area. Highs Thursday and Friday in the 70s.

Long term Saturday through Monday
Saturday and Sunday the models continue with an upper ridge
across the region which breaks down somewhat Sunday evening.

Will have chance pops in place for Saturday as models show ample
low level rh for at least daytime convection. Sunday looks
better for convection as the upper ridge axis shifts east during
the afternoon evening. For now will continue with chance pops.

Monday the ridge is gone and models show an upper short wave
trough advancing toward the area. Will keep chance pops in place
as this moves through. Drier air moves in for Tuesday however
li's on the GFS drop to
-9c during the afternoon so will keep a low chance pop for
afternoon convection possibilities. Highs Saturday from the
upper 70s to near 80. Around 80 Sunday and Monday, dropping back
just a couple degrees Tuesday.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
The main aviation concerns with this update will be low ceilings
and fog this morning and again later on tonight into Wednesday
morning. A stalled frontal boundary remains from west to east
over northern and central ohio. Sky and visibilities vary
drastically across the area with lifr conditions being observed
with patchy dense fog around cle at this time while skies are
fair and mostly clear near toledo this morning. Other taf
locations like mfd and yng are seeing ifr to MVFR fog and
ceilings. Most areas will continue to see MVFR ceilings this
morning and light fog. Cle should lift out of the dense fog by
14z-15z. Most locations should see ceilings lift to 4k to 5k
feet by late morning or midday. Guidance is showing that low
ceilings and fog potential will return late this evening and
overnight into early Wednesday morning as the stalled front
begins to slowly lift northward as a warm front across the area.

Have most locations dropping to solid ifr conditions. Will also
mention in this discussion, there is some potential for areas
of dense fog and lifr conditions again tonight for north central
and northeast ohio TAF locations. Scattered showers will
continue through mid morning for cak, yng, and mfd areas through
14z. Winds will be mostly light and variable under 5 knots
which a gradual shift to southerly less than 5 knots by early
Wednesday morning.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible through Friday.

Marine
Models continue to show an extended period of rather light winds on
lake erie. The only exception will be Thursday night into early
Friday when winds turn out of the north behind low pressure moving
east of the area. Winds will likely increase to the 10 to 20 knot
range and while waves may not reach small craft criteria, boaters
will be bounced around on the south half of the lake for the 18 hour
period. Winds drop back to under 10 knots again by late Friday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Flash flood watch until 10 am edt this morning for ohz020>023-
028>033-036>038-047.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Griffin
near term... Griffin
short term... Tk
long term... Tk
aviation... Griffin
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TWCO1 5 mi37 min NE 5.1 G 7 1008.4 hPa
45165 6 mi37 min N 1.9 G 3.9 65°F 66°F1 ft59°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 13 mi87 min NNW 1 G 2.9 62°F 1014.7 hPa57°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 15 mi57 min N 5.1 G 6 63°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 22 mi57 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 1014.4 hPa (+0.7)
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 28 mi87 min N 4.1 G 5.1 64°F 65°F1013.9 hPa59°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 40 mi57 min N 2.9 G 5.1 63°F 1013.2 hPa (+0.7)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 43 mi72 min Calm 61°F 1015 hPa60°F
45005 - W ERIE 28NM Northwest of Cleveland, OH 45 mi47 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 61°F 61°F1014.8 hPa59°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH13 mi64 minN 07.00 miFair61°F59°F93%1014.7 hPa
Lambertville, Toledo Suburban Airport, MI23 mi62 minN 04.00 miFog/Mist59°F58°F99%1014.9 hPa
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI24 mi81 minN 00.50 miFog58°F57°F98%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE5E6E5NE64NE45NE7NE6NE5NE6E5E6E5E3N3NE3N3NE3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE4E5NE6NE7N8NE10
G16
NE6NE7E6NE5NE9E6NE8NE12E7E5E5NE5E4NE3E7NE6NE3NE3
2 days agoSW7S13S10S10SW8SW12SW9SW6CalmSE5S10SW11SW7SW7S5CalmSE5CalmCalmNE3CalmN8NE6NE5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.