Monday, January22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hammond, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:08AMSunset 4:55PM Monday January 22, 2018 1:37 PM CST (19:37 UTC) Moonrise 11:14AMMoonset 11:32PM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ743 Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 902 Am Cst Mon Jan 22 2018
Rest of today..South winds 15 to 25 kt. Areas of fog. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest. Areas of fog in the evening. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening, then chance of rain after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Tuesday..Northwest winds to 30 kt with a few gale force gusts to 35 kt in the late morning and early afternoon. Chance of snow and rain likely in the morning, then slight chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft in the afternoon.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Slight chance of snow showers in the evening. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft after midnight.
LMZ743 Expires:201801222230;;831015 FZUS53 KLOT 221502 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 902 AM CST Mon Jan 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ743>745-222230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hammond, IN
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location: 41.62, -87.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 221746
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
1146 am cst Mon jan 22 2018

Short term
252 am cst
through tonight...

a little something from the weather department for almost
everyone the next 24-36 hours. On the docket weather-wise, we have
ongoing dense fog, showers & t-storms, locally heavy rain minor
flooding threat, unseasonable warmth, small threat of isolated
severe weather, possible change over to wet snow, and windy colder
conditions.

This morning:
slug of showers and thunderstorms over mo western il will continue
to move and develop northeast into northern il and northwest in
prior to sunrise and continue for a bit after sunrise. Still looks
like there will be a swath of heavy rainfall totals in excess of
an inch in less than 6 hours, probably extending northeast into
the chicago metro area. Given the frozen ground, very little of
the rain will get absorbed into the ground and rather will go
straight to run off. Result could be some minor flooding ponding
of water issues this morning. Widespread showers and thunderstorms
will end during the mid-late morning hours as a pronounced dry
intrusion pivots into the area. Warm front is slowly lifting north
now, but is expected to more rapidly surge north into southern wi
by mid-late morning. Look for dense fog to improve both as showers
and storms begin and also as the warm front lifts north. May shave
a few more counties off the dense fog advisory in addition to
those set to expire at 09z.

This afternoon:
the pronounced dry intrusion will provide a break in precip
chance late this morning into the start of the afternoon hours.

Based on satellite trends upstream and conceptual model as we
break into the warm sector, would anticipate some partial clearing
to take place with at least some breaks for sunshine. Have
trended temps upward toward and a bit above the warmest guidance
today as stout southerly winds and perhaps some breaks for
sunshine allow temps to climb well into the 50s area-wide with
perhaps a 60f reading here or there this afternoon.

Ingredient this afternoon look likely to come together to support
a broken arcing band of convection this afternoon as steep mid-
level lapse rates cold mid level temps pivot eastward and become
juxtaposed over top the narrow warm sector characterized by
dewpoints in the low mid 50s. The result should be a ribbon sbcape
around 500 j kg developing just ahead of surface trough. Strong
dcva and low level convergence along the boundary should support
rapid convective development during the early-mid afternoon hours
over western il, with storms moving northeast across the area
late in the afternoon into the early evening hours.

Model forecast wind profiles suggest effective shear values
should be sufficient to support some threat for low topped
supercells, though veer-back-veer profile over northern il isn't
usually particularly favorable for tornadoes. However, strong
ambient vorticity in the presence of the approaching upper low
could offset the potentially questionable wind profiles. Certainly
doesn't look like a tornado outbreak set-up, but does look to be
a window of opportunity for storms to produce a couple tornadoes
this afternoon. Low freezing levels could allow for some hail,
mostly sub-severe.

Tonight:
broken band of convection should be in a weaken phase as it
rotated northeast and east out of our CWA early this evening.

Widely scattered showers will likely linger across the area
tonight with precipitation gradually mixing with then changing to
some wet snow overnight from northwest to southeast as colder air
filters into the region.

There is a strong signal in various model guidance that
strengthening f-gen on the northwest flank of the system will
promote an intensifying band of snow overnight into early Tuesday
morning. While there is strong agreement in that scenario, the
placement of this feature varies widely in the model guidance. The
strong signal is over southern wi, but a few models do suggest
that the intense trowal could affect portions of northern il
overnight. Given the presence of very steep lapse rates in the
presence of strengthening f-gen circulation, potential exists for
heavy snow and couldn't even rule out a couple lightning strikes
in this band given the very steep lapse rates. Unfortunately, due
to the mesoscale nature of this potential band of heavier snow, it
really is going to be more of nowcast type issue. Plan to
continue with accums of an inch or two near the wi line late
tonight into early tues, but in all likelihood accumulations will
be more confined to the f-gen driven band where heavier precip
rates will be able to augment the somewhat marginal temp profiles
and allow for accumulations. Outside of that heavier snow band
(where ever it may set up) not expecting much accumulation given
the mostly above freezing temps and warm wet ground. While the
most favored area for the heavier band of snow is southern wi and
far northern il, the hires wrf-nmm is right over the chicago area,
so will need to closely watch the evolution of this system.

- izzi

Long term
252 am cst
Tuesday through Sunday...

any linger snow should end by mid morning Tuesday leaving just
windy and cold (compared to today) temps in its wake. In reality,
temps Tuesday should hold steady in the low mid 30s which is close
to the avg high for late january. Wednesday look dry with
seasonable temperatures.

Another long wave trough is forecast to dig into the western conus
mid-late week with downstream amplification of upper ridge over
our area. Surface low is forecast to track east across southern
canada late in the week with broad and rather stout southerly flow
developing across the central and eastern u.S. And setting the
stage for another bout of unseasonable warmth locally. Thursday
should see the moderating trend begin, but by Friday it looks like
high temps should make it into the 50s most areas. The southerly
flow looks to be relatively void of moisture through Friday
locally, so stratus isn't much of a concern and cirrus should be
more prominent closer to the jet to our north, so Friday looks
like it could be a really nice day with sunshine and temps in the
50s.

Cold front looks to move across the area Saturday afternoon, so
after a mild start look for a chance of showers and a return to
more seasonable temps late in the weekend into early next week.

Operational runs of the medium range models tonight are all in
good agreement on the late weekend cool down (return to avg temps)
being short-live with another bout of unseasonably warm
temperatures possible heading into next week.

- izzi

Aviation
For the 18z tafs...

low pressure is centered over iowa this afternoon with a warm
front draped across far northern illinois. Lifr vlifr conditions
are present within the frontal trough, including at rfd, but
conditions do improve some south of the front as southerly flow
increases which has already occurred at the chicago area
terminals. Should see conditions improve back to ifr at rfd within
the next couple hours as the front lifts farther north. Mid to
late in the afternoon, will need to keep a close eye on renewed
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms which will lift
northeast across the terminals by mid evening. Winds are expected
to back slightly ahead of any line of showers and may tag 150-160
direction at times before veering back to the southwest and
eventually west southwest this evening. Late tonight into early
Tuesday morning, winds will shift to the northwest and become
gusty. There may be a brief window of snow in the vicinity of the
trough that could produce a dusting of snowfall. If any
accumulating snowfall occurs, expect that to end mid morning as we
lose deeper moisture, but could see occasional flurries,
especially during the afternoon as steep low level lapse rates
develop with low level instability topping out near the base of
the snow growth zone.

Bmd

Marine
141 am cst
there are multiple concerns through Tuesday as a strong storm
system impacts the region. Northeasterly 35-40 kt gales will
develop on the north half of the lake this morning as the low
pressure moves into southern ia, tightening pressure gradient
between it and high pressure north of the lakes. Meanwhile, a warm
front lifting north spreading unseasonably mild and moist air
over the south half will keep favorable conditions in place for
dense fog through mid evening. Northeasterly gales will continue
north of the surface low path, which will be over northern
illinois this evening to lake huron by Tuesday morning. Once the
low shifts east, gales will turn northerly on the north half of
the lake, with north-northwesterly gales spreading down the south
half. A gale warning is in effect from 9am cst this morning
through 6pm Tuesday for the north half and 3am cst to 6pm cst
Tuesday for the south half.

For the nearshore waters, expecting the dense fog to dissipate
this morning with steady rain moving in and warm front lifting
north. A brief period of near hazardous southerly winds will occur
this morning through early afternoon for mostly the indiana
nearshore. East-southeast winds north of the warm front could
also produce waves up to 3-5 feet along the illinois shore from
mid morning through early afternoon. Will hold off on small craft
advisory issuance with some uncertainty on the speed gust
magnitude and very short duration of the higher winds for the
indiana shore and waves just shy of criteria for the illinois
shore. A small craft advisory will then be needed Tuesday into
Tuesday evening for the illinois shore and through Tuesday night
for the indiana shore during the strong north-northwest winds. A
brief period of gale gusts appears possible for the indiana shore
during the mid morning through early afternoon timeframe, but do
not have enough confidence for an additional gale headline.

The next period of strong wind concern is south-southwesterlies
Friday through Friday night, with a period of gale force winds
currently appearing probable over the open waters. Winds will
shift westerly and diminish but remain elevated behind cold
frontal passage on Saturday.

Castro

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... None.

In... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory... Lmz777-lmz779 until 9 pm Monday.

Gale warning... Lmz777-lmz779... 3 am Tuesday to 6 pm Tuesday.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 8 mi50 min S 16 G 24 51°F 998.7 hPa50°F
JAKI2 12 mi98 min SSW 11 53°F
CNII2 17 mi38 min S 12 G 21 51°F 48°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 18 mi58 min S 16 G 23 53°F 1000.7 hPa
OKSI2 21 mi98 min ENE 1.9 52°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 21 mi48 min S 25 G 27 49°F 49°F
FSTI2 26 mi98 min S 45 52°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 32 mi48 min S 18 G 24 53°F 48°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN4 mi53 minS 12 G 243.00 miDrizzle54°F50°F88%999.7 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL7 mi43 minSSW 21 G 294.00 miLight Rain and Breezy51°F50°F99%999.7 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL18 mi45 minS 15 G 242.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist52°F51°F97%998.6 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4443344S6S6S3SE4SE5SE4SE3SE7SE3SE7SE7SE9S11S12S15
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1 day agoSW9SW8SW7S4S5S5453CalmCalmS4S3SE3SE3S6W3S3--SE3SE4435
2 days agoSW16S15
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SW10S8SW8SW6SW15SW7SW10S8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Midwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.