Friday, May24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hammond, IN

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:21AMSunset 8:12PM Friday May 24, 2019 7:54 PM CDT (00:54 UTC) Moonrise 12:36AMMoonset 10:23AM Illumination 66% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ743 Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 647 Pm Cdt Fri May 24 2019
Tonight..East winds around 15 kt becoming south in the late evening and overnight. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt. Rain showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
Sunday..North winds 10 to 15 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 ft or less.
LMZ743 Expires:201905250315;;407509 FZUS53 KLOT 242347 AAA NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST...UPDATED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 647 PM CDT Fri May 24 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ743>745-250315-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hammond, IN
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location: 41.62, -87.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 242340
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
640 pm cdt Fri may 24 2019

Mesoscale discussion
553 pm cdt
the weather forecast over the next 12+ hours remains fairly
complicated, and uncertainties abound mainly due to the weak
nature of large-scale forcing for ascent. While a threat for
strong to severe thunderstorms certainly exists this evening and
into the nighttime hours, how this threat materializes remains
tied to mainly subtle mesoscale processes and subtle waves of
synoptic ascent which are both difficult to diagnose and pinpoint
with much certainty.

Surface analysis late this afternoon depicts a northwest to
southeast arcing warm front--reinforced by this morning's
convection which laid out an outflow boundary--likely just
entering portions of la salle, livingston, and ford counties.

Dewpoints immediately to the south of this boundary jump into the
70s with breezy south to south-southwesterly winds, and this
seems to be demarcated pretty well by an area of bubbling cumulus
and hcrs which are steadily building northward. Recent rap
soundings and SPC mesoanalysis reveal that this is a relatively
high-quality warm sector, with mean mixing ratios pushing 16 g kg
and decent moisture through a fairly deep layer (up to 700 mb). An
earlier tornadic supercell, which was riding along the northern
extent of this warm frontal boundary, quickly dissipated a few
hours ago as it approached bloomington, likely as it encountered a
pocket of warmer air aloft with 700 mb temperatures analyzed at
+9 to +10c. This is indicative of lingering capping, which has
thus far suppressed any additional convective initiation attempts
in the warm sector. Recent goes-16 visible satellite loops reveal
some towering CU development taking place across west central
illinois, however, where capping is lower due to cooler
temperatures aloft.

Farther to our west, an additional area of bubbling cumulus has
been noted across central and eastern iowa, although recent radar
trends suggest incipient updrafts are struggling to develop.

Large scale forcing for ascent is not strong here, but modest
mid-level height falls (20-40 m 12 hours) are noted in recent
analyses nosing into far northwestern iowa at the leading edge of
a very subtle shortwave. It's possible some lingering mesoscale
subsidence is still in place across eastern iowa in the wake of
this morning's mcs, tempering additional robust convective
development at this juncture, but conditions do appear favorable
for robust updraft development over the next few hours.

With this all laid out, it does appear there may be two favored
corridors for potential convective development over the next few
hours: 1 near and south of the incoming warm front and 2
across eastern iowa. All modes of severe weather would be possible
across our area, including the threat for a few tornadoes. Deep
layer shear in excess of 50 kts will support rotating storms and
supercell structures and sizable CAPE in the hail growth zone
will foster large hail development, potentially to the size of
golf balls or even larger with some analogs supporting 2"+ hail
not out of the question.

Recent runs of the hrrr have been a bit concerning, developing
robust storms near the incoming warm front and into the i-80
corridor. Locally backed surface flow would support a tornadic
potential with these storms as they interact with the front and
gain access to considerable streamwise vorticity. Think it looks
too aggressive based on latest satellite trends, but we will need
to keep our eyes peeled for development near and south of i-80
during the 8 to 11 pm time frame. The other area of convection--to
our west in eastern iowa--may attempt to develop into our western
counties later this evening, likely after 10 pm or so. A tornado
threat will continue here, although cam guidance indicates some
propensity for storms to congeal into clusters which may
eventually deliver more of a damaging wind and hail threat as this
second area of activity pushes eastward into the overnight hours.

Finally, a flash flood potential does exist this evening and
overnight, although the spatial breadth and magnitude of this
threat still is uncertain due to the mesoscale processes involved.

Current thinking is that the flash flood watch captures the
favored corridor well, and no immediate changes are planned.

Carlaw

Short term
236 pm cdt
through Saturday...

the threat of thunderstorms, strong to severe, remains this
afternoon into tonight across much of northern il and northwest
in. The highest threat of severe storms this afternoon is south of
i-80 with all hazards including a few tornadoes appearing
possible. The threat of severe storms lifts to remaining areas in
northern il and northwest in later this evening and during the
overnight hours, with the main threats large hail and heavy
rainfall.

In the near term, most locations are observing a dry period.

However, closely monitoring areas south of i-80 where conditions
continue to become more favorable for severe thunderstorm
development. This has been evident with a persistent severe storm
moving east through central il. This storm has been riding east
along the warm front, where upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints
currently reside. Don't see any reason why this won't continue to
persist, especially as large scale ascent will likely increase
over the next couple of hours in advance of upstream mid level
energy. With strong pressure falls ongoing across eastern ia and
northwest il, will likely see this warm front lift north this
afternoon through the evening. Increasing large scale ascent and a
lifting warm front will assist the current storm development
across central il lift into locations along south of the kankakee
river in il over the next 1-2 hours, where the current tornado
watch is located. With high dewpoint air, increasing low level
instability, and more than sufficient shear parameters will
support a large hail and tornado threat.

Although activity over the next 2-3 hours will likely stay
confined to areas south of i-80, do think the threat of severe
storms remains further to the north later this evening tonight.

This is despite the persistent cloud cover and periodic showers
and storms. Substantial clearing and strong southerly winds are
ushering in a much warmer and moist environment across ia at this
time. Do think this trend will continue into northern il and
northwest in later this afternoon evening. This should allow the
more moist and unstable air mass to push north. With the surface
trough front lifting north and with increasing large scale ascent,
scattered thunderstorm development this evening still appears
likely. Focus may initially be across northwest and north central
il this evening, but expect scattered development to quickly move
east into remaining areas in northern il and northwest in. With a
high shear environment and an increase in instability,
strong severe storms will be possible. Do have some questions if
the lower level instability will be in place further to the north
this evening. With several hours of sunshine still likely across
areas over northwest and north central il this afternoon, lower
level instability could briefly materialize. If this were to
occur, then a tornado threat would remain. At this time though,
think there is a higher threat for large hail and damaging winds
across northern il and northwest in. The threat of severe storms
this evening may persist into around 1 am cdt. Any storms this
afternoon into the evening will be capable of producing heavy
rainfall, with the flash flood watch still valid. Despite the
severe threat lowering later tonight, additional periods of heavy
rainfall are possible.

The northward warm frontal boundary will have shifted through the
area by the morning, though the associated cold front will sink
back toward our northwest. Therefore, the moisture transport axis
will be shunted farther south pass through the area, keeping the
chance of showers. Instability will wane through the morning, but
it is not zero, thus some embedded thunderstorms are possible. The
bulk of guidance does suggest that the overall forcing does ease a
bit in the afternoon, and in general the support for thunderstorms
is not as high Saturday as today, but there will be some ability
for instability to rebuild in the afternoon such that if storms
can form they could be briefly strong given the presence of decent
deep layer shear. Otherwise expect warm and somewhat muggy
conditions with highs approaching 80 and dewpoints in the 60s.

Rodriguez kmd

Long term
317 am cdt
Saturday night through Thursday...

forecast discussion unchanged, the main forecast concerns through
the period will continue to focus on the chances and timing of
showers and thunderstorms through mid week as we remain in a very
active weather pattern.

A cold frontal boundary is expected to sag southward over the area
at the beginning of the period Saturday night, before stalling
out somewhere across central and southern il on Sunday. This front
is likely to be the focus for additional shower and thunderstorm
chances Saturday night into Sunday, so its exact placement will be
key in identify storm chances. At this time it appears the best
chances of storms will mainly south of i-80 Saturday night, with
the focus then gradually sagging southward over central portions
of il and in during the day Sunday. Some strong to severe storms,
with heavy rainfall will continue to be possible with this
activity, again with the best potential looking to be south of
i-80 during this period.

It does appear the area will have another short break of dry
weather later Sunday into early Monday as high pressure builds
over the western great lakes region. Again this will be a short
period, as yet another storm system is forecast to spawn over the
central rockies Sunday night as an upper level impulse ejects out
of a southwestern CONUS upper low. This area of low pressure
should then track northeastward to the western great lakes by
Tuesday evening. This would likely result in the cold front to our
south shifting back northward over the area as a warm front
Monday, with showers and thunderstorms probable over at least
northern sections of the area late Monday into Monday evening.

Yet another period of showers and thunderstorms, with possibly a
much better severe and heavy rain threat is then looking to be on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. This is the period when the main
southwestern CONUS upper system is forecast to shift northeastward
towards the western great lakes. The thermodyamics and kinematics
will certainly be favorable for severe thunderstorms with this
activity into Tuesday night, and very heavy rainfall will again be
of concern.

Following this period of active weather into early Wednesday, it
does appear that we could get another break in the active weather
for a couple of days.

Kjb

Aviation
For the 00z tafs...

thunderstorm potential through the overnight hours remains the
main focus and also a challenge. A warm front is positioned south
of the terminals but is moving northward and may be able to
trigger a few isolated shra tsra through mid evening. Somewhat
confident that any coverage will be limited with this if it does
occur. Higher coverage of shra tsra is expected to the west across
northwest il with a few cells just now developing down near kpia.

Coverage should increase and may begin to skirt krfd by mid
evening so will need to monitor for some adjustments there. It
does appear that tsra out to the west will become better organized
and shift eastward across the terminals late this evening into
the overnight and have focused the tsra mention during this time.

Activity should wane in intensity late tonight with lingering
showers through daybreak or perhaps mid morning. Vsby could be a
mile or less in any tsra and some may pack gusty winds and hail
through the evening.

Lower endVFR conditions are expected Saturday morning with some
MVFR possible, especially toward krfd, but ceilings look to
scatter into early afternoon. Winds will be southwesterly and gust
into the 17-20 kt range by afternoon. Main threat for more tsra
should be south of the terminals Saturday but some scattered
activity is possible nearby Saturday evening. Confidence is too
low to include any mention at this point.

Mdb

Lot watches warnings advisories
Il... Flash flood watch... Ilz003-ilz004-ilz005-ilz006-ilz008-ilz010-
ilz011-ilz012-ilz013-ilz014-ilz019-ilz020-ilz021-ilz022
until 10 am Saturday.

In... Flash flood watch... Inz001 until 10 am Saturday.

Lm... None.

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 8 mi37 min N 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 1013.3 hPa55°F
JAKI2 12 mi115 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 56°F
CNII2 17 mi25 min NE 1.9 G 7 57°F 52°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 18 mi43 min SE 5.1 G 8 75°F 1014.2 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 21 mi35 min NE 1.9 G 1.9
FSTI2 26 mi115 min NNE 6 55°F
45170 29 mi25 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 64°F 54°F1 ft61°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 32 mi35 min ESE 9.9 G 13 74°F 66°F
45174 37 mi25 min ESE 3.9 G 3.9 50°F 1 ft1013.8 hPa50°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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W4
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G7
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NE4
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G24

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN4 mi70 minSSE 510.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F68°F74%1014.2 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL7 mi60 minSSE 510.00 miFair75°F68°F80%1013.9 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL18 mi62 minE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F60°F66%1013 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W7CalmCalmNE4SE3NE6E7E5N10N13NE7E5SE10SE6SE7SE7SE5E9S7S5S7SE5SE4
1 day agoS9S12S6
G15
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G18
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W14W15W15
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W25W20
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W20W17
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W18W18W11
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W9
2 days agoE14E12E17
G24
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SE12
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CalmE3SE13
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SE4
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S4SE4S3S9S11S14S12S10S15S15S15
G25
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G25
S12
G22
S10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (20,4,5,8)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.