Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hammond, IN

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Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 7:43PM Monday August 20, 2018 4:04 AM CDT (09:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:55PMMoonset 12:57AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ743 Calumet Harbor To Gary-gary To Burns Harbor- Burns Harbor To Michigan City- 307 Am Cdt Mon Aug 20 2018
Today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 kt. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms by late morning, then occasional showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft late in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south 5 to 15 kt after midnight. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft subsiding to 1 ft or less after midnight.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming north to 30 kt in the afternoon. Scattered showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft in the afternoon. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
Tuesday night..North winds 20 to 25 kt. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft. A small craft advisory will likely be needed.
LMZ743 Expires:201808201600;;935045 FZUS53 KLOT 200807 NSHLOT NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville IL 307 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan Waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves, along with the average height of the highest 10 percent of the waves which will occasionally be encountered. LMZ743>745-201600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hammond, IN
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location: 41.62, -87.49     debug


Area Discussion for - Chicago, IL
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Fxus63 klot 200831
afdlot
area forecast discussion
national weather service chicago romeoville, il
331 am cdt Mon aug 20 2018

Short term
331 am cdt
through tonight...

fairly strong cyclone for august will continue its slow but steady
trek across the region the next couple days bringing various sorts
of inclement weather...

1) arc of non-severe WAA (warm air advection) driven
showers t-storms will move across the area today
2) potential for isolated- scattered t-storms this afternoon over
western and southern CWA with some tornado potential
3) scattered showers t-storms with some lake effect storms tues
into tues evening
4) large waves, extremely dangerous swim conditions, and
potential for some minor lakeshore flooding Tuesday into Tuesday
night, especially NW in shore.

Today, looks for arc of showers and scattered t-storms currently
moving into SW il to continue to spread north and east and result
in showers and storms overspreading the CWA from SW to NE this
morning, likely reaching the chicago area and extreme NW indiana
midday early afternoon. Air mass is seasonably moist and certainly
could be some healthy downpours with this activity, but flooding
threat appears low thanks to the expected progressive nature of
this activity.

In the wake of this initial WAA driven band, models are in good
agreement in pivoting a pronounced mid-upper level dry intrusion
into the area this afternoon. Great deal of uncertainty exists
regarding the magnitude of destabilization that will take place in
the wake of the initial wave of precip. In a spring or fall event,
would be quite concerned that stratus lingering in the wake of the
initial band would limit heating and kill any potential severe
threat, but this is mid-august with a still fairly high Sun angle,
suggesting a better chance of mixing out the stratus and seeing
some insolation this afternoon. Reasonably good agreement amount
the suite of cams and href that there will be an axis of >1000
j kg of SBCAPE this afternoon arcing from east-central il north
and west toward extreme east central ia.

While the shear CAPE profiles really don't scream tornado
potential, the ambient vorticity in association with the
approaching upper low could result in an isolated tornado threat
this afternoon with a broken band of isold-sct'd t-storms. Bunkers
right-moving supercell motion this afternoon is progged to be
toward the northeast at around 20kt, which given the orientation
of the warm front rules limits the threat of anything riding the
boundary. In addition, the instability axis could end up being
fairly narrow leading to a relatively short window for tornado
potential with the storms.

Despite the aforementioned mitigating factors, there is reason to
be concerned about a non-trivial tornado threat this afternoon
over mainly our southern and western cwa. Low levels will be quite
moist with low-mid 70 degree dewpoints expected in the warm
sector, which means both low LCL heights as well as low lfcs.

Given sufficient heating, forecast soundings have fairly steep low
level lapse rates, which in conjunction with the low lfcs results
in significant 0-3kt CAPE values (favorable for low level updraft
acceleration and vorticity stretching for storm scale rotation
potential).

The margin of error between several tornadoes occurring across
portions of northern and central illinois and run of the mill
weaker convection with minimal tornado threat or just some funnel
clouds is quite small. This potential will need to be monitored
quite closely today. Outside of the tornado threat, the potential
for damaging winds and or hail looks quite low today. The
northward and eastward extent of the tornado potential today
should be limited by the narrowness of the instability axis, with
threat largely confined to areas south of i-88 arcing southeast
to near the il in border (reference our enhanced hazardous
weather outlook (ehwo) page for graphical depiction of our
current thinking regarding areal extent of tornado potential this
afternoon early evening. Ehwo can be found at:


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CMTI2 - 9087044 - Calumet, IL 8 mi35 min SSE 4.1 G 6 73°F 1013.3 hPa65°F
JAKI2 12 mi125 min S 7 G 11 75°F
CNII2 17 mi20 min SE 8.9 G 14 73°F 65°F
BHRI3 - Burns Harbor, IN 18 mi25 min 72°F 1014.6 hPa
45177 20 mi125 min 77°F1 ft
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 21 mi35 min SE 17 G 20 75°F 67°F
FSTI2 26 mi125 min SE 12 75°F
45170 29 mi25 min SSE 14 G 16 73°F 77°F2 ft65°F
MCYI3 - Michigan City, IN 32 mi35 min ESE 11 G 13 71°F 62°F
45174 37 mi25 min SE 14 G 19 76°F 76°F3 ft71°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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N4
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NE5
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gary Regional Airport, IN4 mi70 minSE 610.00 miFair72°F65°F81%1014.2 hPa
Lansing Municipal Airport, IL7 mi70 minSE 510.00 miFair70°F62°F78%1014.2 hPa
Chicago, Chicago Midway Airport, IL18 mi72 minSE 710.00 miOvercast74°F64°F74%1012.7 hPa

Wind History from GYY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4NE4NE5NE7NE8NE4
G14
NE9NE10NE9
G21
E12E8E7SE4SE4SE5SE3E6SE4SE6
1 day agoCalmNE36N7N9N9N10N104N8N8N9N12N7N12NE8NE8NE7NE6N5N5NE4N4N3
2 days agoE3SW5SW423Calm35W8CalmCalmN6N7NE7NE4NE44NE5N4NE5N5N4NE4NE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Chicago, IL (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Chicago, IL
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.