North Falmouth, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for North Falmouth, MA

May 6, 2024 3:05 PM EDT (19:05 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:31 AM   Sunset 7:48 PM
Moonrise 4:32 AM   Moonset 6:19 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 103 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024

This afternoon - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 3 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.

Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds.

Tue - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds.

Tue night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 4 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of rain.

Wed night - SW winds around 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 foot or less. Wave detail: sw 1 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. A chance of rain in the evening.

Thu and Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of rain.

Fri and Fri night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 103 Pm Edt Mon May 6 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - A weak cold front moves across new england Monday, then offshore Monday night. Weak high pressure then builds over the region Tuesday. Weak broad area of low pressure then moves across new england Wednesday. Another low, potentially stronger, tracks over or just south of the ma/ri waters later Thu into Fri. This low exits into the maritimes Saturday, followed by weak high pressure over new england Sunday.



7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 061732 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 132 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Partial sunshine develops today with much warmer temperatures.
A brief band of scattered showers is expected Monday afternoon/ evening...but the majority of the time will feature dry weather.
Tuesday will be the pick of the week with abundant sunshine and above normal temperatures. Then an unsettled weather pattern develops Wednesday and beyond, with cooler than normal temperatures and the risk of showers at times. However, there will also be periods of dry weather. The weekend may feature a drying trend, with shower potential not as widespread and limited to the afternoon/evening hours.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

The back edge of the rain shield has finally exited the islands and we expect mostly dry weather to persist through the rest of the day. The biggest question this morning is how quickly those clouds can erode and allow the temperatures to jump up. We're currently sitting in the in the upper 50s across much of the region but where those breaks in the clouds have started we see low 60s. The next few hours should see some continued clearing and temperatures climbing. No significant changes to thinking for this afternoon.

Previous Discussion...

Today

Short-wave energy and associated showers at the surface exit east off the coast of southern New England this morning.
This will be followed by increasing temperatures and dewpoints today as southerly flow advects a more warm/moist air mass over southern New England. 925 hPa temps rise close to 15 Celsius, so we should experience very warm temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the interior this afternoon. While the sun is likely to break out at times, there will continue to be a fair amount of low clouds in place as well, especially over the south coast, Cape, and Islands where the sun may not break out at all with low-stratus persisting into tonight. With not as much sunshine and the expectation that sea-breezes will develop, these locations near the coast will be noticeably cooler than across the interior with highs in the low to mid 60s more common. While most areas should stay dry today, there will be chances for some mid-afternoon showers to develop as another embedded short- wave traverses over the region. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder either as there will be modest amounts of instability in the atmosphere to the tune of 100-300 J/kg of CAPE. Expect any shower/thunderstorm activity to be limited to the interior as sea-breezes would be expected to stabilize the atmosphere near the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/
Tonight

Low clouds fill back in after sunset tonight as the boundary layer cools. Light winds and high dewpoints will likely result in areas of fog developing this evening as well. However, low-level winds in the 925-850 hPa layer shift northwest as a mid-level trough axis shifts east of the region. This will support winds shifting to the north at the surface which will allow drier air to displace the fog/low- stratus gradually overnight. Expect clearing skies by sunrise. Low temps in the low to mid 50s.

Tomorrow

Beautiful day on tap for Tuesday. High pressure and a dry air mass will support very warm and sunny conditions. 925 hPa air temps in the mid to upper teens will support another afternoon with temps in the mid to upper 70s. Can't rule out a few locations in the CT River Valley topping 80. Light northerly winds to start will become more westerly as the day progresses. By far the pick of the week if you enjoy warm/sunny weather.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
* Progressively cooler this period, especially Fri and Sat

* Wet weather at times Wednesday through Friday, but also periods of dry weather too

* Possibly trending drier next weekend, with showers not as widespread and limited during the afternoon/early evening

Synoptic Overview...

By late Tue/Tue night, a high amplitude closed low will be located over the Dakotas. Models, including ensembles then differ on the evolution of jet energy ejecting eastward from this closed low eastward into New England. This will impact frontal position across SNE, along with timing and amplitude of frontal waves. Hence, a low confidence forecast this period. Forecast confidence increases slight for next weekend, as ensembles in better agreement, with mean trough axis over SNE, displacing deep layer moisture well offshore.
This will favor drier weather with shower threat more diurnally driven across SNE.

Precipitation...

As mentioned above, anomalous closed low over the Dakotas late Tue moves slowly east mid to late week. Models, including ensembles displaying a large spread in the timing of jet energy ejecting eastward out of this low and eventually into New England. This results in a low confidence forecast this period, specifically in regards to frontal boundary placement, including magnitude and timing of frontal waves traversing this boundary. Hence, rain likely at times, although periods of dry weather too. Unfortunately, given model spread, too difficult at this time range to nail down exact timing of specifics. Ensembles offer some support of drier weather for the weekend, with mean trough axis over SNE. This will shift deep layer moisture and frontal wave offshore. However, cyclonic flow aloft and cold pool will yield a risk of diurnal instability showers. Not widespread, but unfortunately timing will be in the afternoon and evening hours.

Temperatures...

High forecast confidence on a cooler temperature regime this period, in response to lowering heights across New England. Seasonably cool Wed with highs in the 60s, but then cooling off into the 50s Thu, especially in eastern MA behind departing wave with N-NE winds across SNE. Coolest weather could arrive Fri pending track and intensity of surface wave tracking SE of New England. Depending on amplitude of wave, could be chilly with onshore only yielding highs in the 50s. Ensemble 850 mb temp anomalies are impressive, about -6C cooler than normal. In fact, ensemble probs of 50+ highs Friday drop to less than 50% across northern MA. Hence, could see highs only in the 40s there. Chilly weather likely lingers into Saturday given below normal heights/cold pool aloft. Temps may moderate to seasonal levels by Sunday, as flow becomes NW aloft and cold pool moves offshore.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18Z TAF Update

This afternoon...high confidence.

Conditions have improved to VFR for most of the region. The exception is the Cape and islands where stubborn low clouds may hang on for the whole day. Mainly a dry day today, however widely scattered showers develop this afternoon and early evening. 10-20% chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Light WSW winds with local seabreezes along the eastern MA coast.

Tonight...Moderate Confidence

MVFR/IFR conditions fill back in across the interior and persist over the south coast, Cape, and Islands through about 06Z. Winds shift to the north after that time frame and allow ceilings to gradually improve to VFR by 09-12Z.

Tomorrow...High Confidence

VFR. Light northerly winds becoming light out of the west. Sea- breezes likely along the coast with very warm temps forecast over land.

Tomorrow night...Moderate Confidence.

Rain arrives to western terminals by 12z with VFR conditions throughout the night. Winds light and variable.

KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence in TAF. Biggest question is if enough clouds fill back in to have the sea breeze flip back to west winds at 21z.

KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA.

Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

Thursday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today through Tomorrow...High Confidence

Modest winds and seas continue today and tomorrow. Expect areas of fog over the coastal waters this morning and this afternoon as moisture increases from southerly winds. Fog should dissipate tonight into tomorrow as a weak cold front ushers drier air over the coastal waters.

Outlook /Tuesday Night through Friday/...

Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Friday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING

Coastal Flooding

High astro tides this week and concern becomes late Thu into Fri with potential frontal wave tracking south of New England, generating onshore flow into eastern MA. Magnitude of potential inundation and erosion will depend on strength and timing of surface low. Too early for specifics with any certainty, but given astro tides are already over 11 ft at Boston, it will only take a 1 ft storm surge and modest wave action to yield minor inundation and erosion. Stay tuned throughout the week for updated information.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi71 min 56°F 51°F29.94
NBGM3 13 mi71 min S 11G12 63°F 29.94
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi35 min SSW 12G14 53°F 52°F29.9253°F
44090 22 mi65 min 56°F 53°F
44085 26 mi65 min 50°F2 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi65 min SW 11G11 51°F 29.96
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi71 min 65°F 53°F29.95
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi71 min SSW 5.1G6 59°F 29.93
FRXM3 28 mi71 min 62°F 58°F
PRUR1 34 mi71 min 58°F 56°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi80 min WNW 5.1 63°F 29.9557°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi71 min SW 4.1G8 65°F 29.96
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi71 min SSE 7G8.9 57°F 56°F29.94
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi71 min S 8G9.9 58°F 51°F29.95
CHTM3 38 mi71 min 58°F 50°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi71 min SW 8.9G13 58°F 54°F29.96
PDVR1 40 mi71 min SE 8G9.9 58°F 29.9256°F
PVDR1 40 mi71 min S 8G9.9 60°F 29.9458°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi71 min S 13G14 58°F 29.94
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi71 min SSE 9.9G12 64°F 51°F29.93
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 47 mi55 min 50°F3 ft
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi35 min ESE 5.8G7.8 54°F 51°F29.9154°F


Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFMH CAPE COD COAST GUARD AIR STATION,MA 8 sm9 minW 1110 smClear68°F59°F73%29.91
KEWB NEW BEDFORD RGNL,MA 16 sm12 minWSW 0910 smA Few Clouds73°F61°F65%29.90
KMVY MARTHA'S VINEYARD,MA 17 sm12 minSSW 1010 smMostly Cloudy61°F55°F82%29.93
KPYM PLYMOUTH MUNI,MA 19 sm13 minSW 0710 smPartly Cloudy73°F61°F65%29.89
KHYA BARNSTABLE MUNIBOARDMAN/POLANDO FIELD,MA 20 sm9 minSSW 1010 smClear64°F57°F77%29.90
Link to 5 minute data for KFMH


Wind History from FMH
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
   
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Chappaquoit Point
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Mon -- 12:59 AM EDT     -0.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:04 AM EDT     4.32 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:27 PM EDT     5.31 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, Tide feet
12
am
-0.3
1
am
-0.6
2
am
-0.3
3
am
0.4
4
am
1.5
5
am
2.8
6
am
3.8
7
am
4.3
8
am
4
9
am
3
10
am
1.7
11
am
0.5
12
pm
-0.3
1
pm
-0.6
2
pm
-0.3
3
pm
0.5
4
pm
1.6
5
pm
3.1
6
pm
4.4
7
pm
5.2
8
pm
5.2
9
pm
4.3
10
pm
2.9
11
pm
1.4


Tide / Current for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
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Mon -- 02:21 AM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Mon -- 04:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:26 AM EDT     4.47 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 05:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:41 AM EDT     -0.15 knots Slack
Mon -- 11:36 AM EDT     -4.77 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 02:45 PM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:52 PM EDT     4.61 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 06:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:08 PM EDT     -0.17 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
-4.4
1
am
-3.6
2
am
-1.9
3
am
2.6
4
am
3.9
5
am
4.4
6
am
4.4
7
am
3.9
8
am
2.7
9
am
-1.9
10
am
-3.8
11
am
-4.6
12
pm
-4.7
1
pm
-4.1
2
pm
-2.8
3
pm
1.7
4
pm
3.6
5
pm
4.4
6
pm
4.6
7
pm
4.3
8
pm
3.4
9
pm
1.2
10
pm
-3.2
11
pm
-4.4


Weather Map
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Boston, MA,





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