Tuesday, October16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 6:01PM Tuesday October 16, 2018 9:17 PM EDT (01:17 UTC) Moonrise 2:01PMMoonset 11:44PM Illumination 50% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 901 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
.gale warning in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning...
Overnight..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft, building to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 901 Pm Edt Tue Oct 16 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A weak ridge of high pressure builds south of the waters overnight. A strong cold front then sweeps across the waters late Wed/wed evening with nw gales and colder than normal temps to follow Wed night into Thu. High pressure builds south of new england Fri with moderating temps and a gusty sw wind into Sat. A cold front sweeps across the waters late Sat followed by another round of gusty nw winds and cold weather Sunday into Monday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.64, -70.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170059
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
859 pm edt Tue oct 16 2018

Synopsis
A cold front moves through the region Wednesday followed by the
coldest air of this young fall season invades Wednesday night
and Thursday. However the cold weather is short lived with
moderating temps Fri and Sat but a chance of showers ahead of a
cold front Saturday. Colder air returns Sunday and Monday behind
the frontal passage.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
9 pm update...

previous forecast is on track. A ridge of high pressure to our
south will result in a dry chilly night across southern new
england. Low temperatures will mainly be in the middle 30s to
the lower 40s with just some high clouds. Coolest readings will
be found in the low-lying valley areas where boundary layer is
able to decouple. Expect patchy frost... But probably not
widespread enough where the growing season remains to warrant a
frost advisory.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
Wednesday...

robust mid level trough and shortwave moves into new eng with
attending cold front sweeping across the region during the
afternoon. Steep low level lapse rates approach dry adiabatic
in the 0-3km layer which will lead to broken clouds developing
given some low and mid level moisture. Can't rule out a few
showers, especially interior given modest forcing but overall
moisture is a limiting factor and will limit areal coverage.

Gusty SW winds in the morning will shift to W in the afternoon
with gusts to 25-35 mph developing in the cold advection
pattern. Moderating low level temps will lead to a miler day
with highs into the lower 60s in the coastal plain with mid 50s
over the interior higher terrain.

Wednesday night...

strong cold advection will bring anomalous cold airmass for
this time of year with gusty W NW winds. -10c air at 850 mb
moves into sne by 12z thu. Lows will range from the upper 20s
higher terrain to low mid 30s elsewhere away from the outer
cape islands. Wind chills late Wed night into Thu morning will
drop to the upper teens to mid 20s. No frost expected given wind
and very dry air, but freeze headlines likely needed for
portions of the interior where growing season is still active.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* brief surge of winter cold Thursday
* moderating temperatures Friday and Saturday
* return to colder than normal Sun & continuing into early next week
* mainly dry this period with just scattered showers Fri ngt sat
synoptic overview and model preferences.

Gefs and ecens continue to support a persistent eastern pacific
trough western canada ridge this period which fits teleconnections
of a -epo and + pna. This favors downstream trough over eastern
canada into new england. Given the nao remains positive the flow
remains somewhat progressive so these cold surges will be short
lived. However central-northern atlantic ridge coupled with the
western canadian ridge will support eastern canadian new england
trough to reload resulting in temperatures at or colder than normal
much of this period.

Thursday...

high amplitude mid level trough over the maritimes advects a winter-
like airmass into new england with 850 mb temps down to -10c to -8c.

This will only support highs in the 40s which is about 15-18 degs
colder than normal! These highs are more typical of early dec, thus
running way ahead of schedule. It will feel even colder courtesy of
nw winds gusting up to 20-30 mph which will yield wind chills in the
30s. So definitely a winter chill in the air thu. Wed night will be
the colder night for the urban areas given the strong CAA however
thu night will be colder for the suburbs. This will be a result of a
very dry airmass with dew pts in the teens combines with diminishing
wind and mostly clear skies. Leaned toward the colder MOS guidance
here with lows in the 20s across many of the suburbs and 30-35 in
the cities including much of the immediate coastline.

Friday...

upper air pattern remains progressive so anomalous cold trough exits
with rising heights warming temps aloft offering a nice rebound in
temperatures. In addition anticyclonic mid level flow and
associated subsidence should yield mostly sunny conditions.

Increasing southwest winds will erode modify leftover cold air with
925 mb temps recovering to about +5c by Fri afternoon, supporting
highs well into the 50s.

Weekend...

waa pattern ahead of next northern stream trough and attending cold
front. 925 mb temps warm to about +9c Sat afternoon so highs in the
lower 60s seem reasonable. Thus leaned toward the warmer ec MOS for
highs. Models have trended a bit faster with this short
wave attending front with greatest risk for scattered showers fri
night into Sat morning with possible drying trend Sat afternoon
given quicker fropa.

Post frontal airmass overspreads the area Sat night into sun. Cold
cyclonic flow aloft will yield diurnal clouds and perhaps a spot
rain snow shower especially over the interior. Otherwise dry weather
prevails. However it will be cold with 12z ecens 850 mb temps
ranging from -4c to -6c, supporting highs from the upper 40s to
lower 50s. It will feel colder given blustery NW winds. This will be
followed by another chilly night (Sunday night) as winds diminish
and lows dip into the 20s and 30s.

Early next week...

persistent long wave trough hangs tough over eastern canada into new
england with colder than normal temps Monday with highs only in the
40s. Some moderation Tue ahead of next short wave and attending cold
front, however looks like this just reloads the long wave trough
with a reinforcing surge of cold air for mid week. Mainly dry this
period other than low risk of scattered showers with short wave and
attending cold front around tue.

Aviation 01z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

7 pm update...

vfr, dry and light wsw winds overnight. Earlier discussion
below.

==============================================================
short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Through tonight...VFR. Light W SW wind.

Wednesday...

vfr. Sct-bkn CU 5-6k ft developing in the afternoon, greatest
coverage in the interior where a few showers possible. Gusty sw
winds in the morning becoming west with 25-30 kt gusts
developing in the afternoon.

Wednesday night...

vfr. W NW gusts 20-30 kt early in the evening, then
diminishing but remaining gusty along the immediate coast.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ... Moderate-high confidence.

Thursday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 35 kt.

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
areas gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Saturday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 30 kt. Chance shra.

Saturday night through Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

West winds mostly below SCA tonight. Increasing SW winds
Wednesday morning, then gale force west wind gusts developing
wed afternoon and continuing through Wed night in strong cold
advection behind the cold front. Gusts to 35-40 kt expected.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ... Moderate to high
Thursday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of
rain showers.

Sunday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Climate
Record low maximum temperatures for Thursday october 18
bos 45 in 1898
orh 36 in 1989
bdl 44 in 2009
pvd 46 in 1939

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 2 pm Wednesday to 8 am edt Thursday for
anz232>235-237-254>256.

Gale warning from 4 pm Wednesday to 4 am edt Thursday for
anz230.

Gale warning from 4 pm Wednesday to 8 am edt Thursday for
anz231-250-251.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Wednesday to 8 am edt Thursday
for anz236.

Synopsis... Kjc nocera
near term... Frank
short term... Kjc
long term... Nocera
aviation... Kjc nocera
marine... Kjc nocera
climate... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi30 min 55°F 64°F1016.6 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi93 min 1 48°F 1017 hPa40°F
44090 22 mi48 min 61°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi38 min 2 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi78 min W 14 G 15 55°F 1017.5 hPa (+0.9)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi30 min 62°F1017.4 hPa
FRXM3 28 mi30 min 53°F 39°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi30 min WSW 16 G 19 54°F 1016.9 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi30 min W 6 G 9.9 1017.3 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi93 min W 8 51°F 1017 hPa39°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi30 min W 11 G 14 60°F1017.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi36 min WSW 11 G 14 50°F 63°F1017.5 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi30 min W 6 G 11 53°F 61°F1016.7 hPa
PVDR1 40 mi30 min WSW 5.1 G 7 50°F 1017.2 hPa39°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi36 min W 8.9 G 12 51°F 64°F1017.3 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi30 min W 8.9 G 13 61°F1016.7 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 48 mi28 min W 16 G 19 54°F 3 ft1015.8 hPa (+1.0)35°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi28 min W 14 G 18 55°F 59°F2 ft1015.4 hPa (+1.3)39°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi23 minW 910.00 miFair50°F37°F62%1016.9 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA16 mi25 minWSW 310.00 miFair49°F39°F71%1016.9 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA17 mi25 minWSW 410.00 miFair46°F41°F83%1016.8 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi26 minSSW 510.00 miFair47°F39°F74%1016.8 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA20 mi22 minW 410.00 miFair49°F39°F69%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day ago------------------------S5S6S7S17S12S8S13----SW18SW18SW18
G26
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Chappaquoit Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:48 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 02:16 PM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:58 PM EDT     1.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:44 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.533.12.82.21.51.10.91.11.31.622.63.23.63.52.92.21.51.21.11.11.31.5

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:38 AM EDT     -0.04 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:18 AM EDT     -3.74 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:17 PM EDT     3.37 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:00 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 02:02 PM EDT     First Quarter
Tue -- 03:43 PM EDT     -0.16 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:39 PM EDT     -3.90 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 09:50 PM EDT     0.03 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:43 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.83.63.12.1-1.7-3.1-3.7-3.6-2.9-1.61.933.43.32.92.1-1.4-3-3.8-3.9-3.4-2.412.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (21,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.