Thursday, July19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:14PM Thursday July 19, 2018 2:05 AM EDT (06:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:53PMMoonset 12:01AM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 116 Am Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
Rest of tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 foot or less.
Fri night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..E winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall.
Sun..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Am Edt Thu Jul 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure and pleasant weather persists through the remainder of the work week. Beginning Saturday night into most of next week, persistently breezy S winds ushers N warm, muggy air along with chances of showers and Thunder- storms. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.64, -70.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 190157
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
957 pm edt Wed jul 18 2018

Synopsis
High pressure builds over new england to bring a few days of
sunny and less humid weather, with warm afternoons and cool
nights. Low pressure moves up the coast Saturday, passing
through southern new england Sunday. This will bring showers and
high humidity for Saturday night and Sunday. Even after the low
moves off through the maritimes, humid and unsettled weather
will continue through much of next week.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
10 pm update...

cool, clear, refreshing night on tap. High pressure with light
winds and mostly clear conditions yielding a perfect opportunity
for radiational cooling. Temperatures dropping down towards dew-
points observed earlier today at MAX heating of the day. Talking
lows around the low to mid 50s, likely around the upper 40s over
n W ma and ct. Can't rule out some isolated patchy ground fog in
shallow, sheltered interior valley locales, highest confidence
around the mid-ct river valley.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Thursday into Thursday night...

mid-level ridge and high pressure will continue to build across the
region into Thursday night. Expect mostly clear skies and light
winds. Sea breezes will occur along the coastlines keeping
temperatures slightly cooler. High temps on Thursday will reach into
the upper 70s to low 80s while overnight lows fall back into the low
to mid 50s.

Lastly, patchy fog will be possible, especially in the
typical low lying areas and sheltered regions.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Big picture...

shortwave currently over the northern plains moves to the great lakes
Friday and then digs a closed low over the eastern usa. Meanwhile
high pressure sits over the atlantic ocean and blocks the low from
moving offshore. The closed low breaks down early next week, with
the northern stream moving into the great lakes and new england the
middle of next week.

As the upper low digs over the eastern usa, this creates a southerly
flow up the east coast that lingers through early next week.

Fair agreement among model mass fields through the weekend. All agree
on energy from the digging upper low transferring to the carolina
coast Friday and developing a coastal low. This low then moves up
the coast reaching late Saturday or Saturday night. The GFS remains
6-9 hours faster than the other operational models on bringing rain
showers into southern new england Saturday.

Concerns...

high pressure Friday shifts offshore but remains in control of our
weather. Some increasing cirrus, but expect mainly sunny and dry
conditions. Mixing should reach near 800 mb, with temps in the mixed
layer supporting temps in the 80s.

The developing coastal surface low and upper southerly flow should
bring increasing clouds Saturday. The southerly flow aloft will also
bring increased humidity, with precipitable water values climbing
above two inches... Tropical levels... By Sunday morning. The question
remains as to timing. Consensus would suggest showers starting
Saturday evening night. But the gfs, while an outlier, maintains a
possibility of an earlier start. Once the tropical flow starts, it
should remain with us much of next week.

Northern stream shortwave may approach from canada toward midweek.

Mediocre agreement on upper flow, not unusual for a day 7 forecast.

There are suggestions that the shortwave will dig over the northeast
usa, turning the upper flow from the southwest and parallel with the
surface cold front. This would slow or stall the cold front and deny
us relief from the humidity. GFS and ECMWF operational runs both
show this scenario. We are following this humid scenario for
Wednesday, but as it is a day 7 forecast the confidence is low.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Light winds. MainlyVFR. Sea breeze during the day. Low risk for
some patchy fog during the overnights in sheltered sites.

Kbos terminal...

high confidenceVFR. Light north winds through the night will
give way to a sea breeze late Thursday morning.

Kbdl terminal...

high confidence in the taf.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, chance tsra.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Shra
likely, chance tsra.

Sunday night: mainly MVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Monday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Monday night: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Tuesday: MVFR. Breezy. Chance shra, chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Tonight into Thursday night...

strong high pressure over the waters through the period. Expect
generally light N winds, 5-10 kts. Onshore sea breezes developing
mid to late morning hours on Thursday along the near-shore. Seas
remaining below 5 feet.

Outlook Friday through Monday ...

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday night through Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Rain showers likely, chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday night through Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough
seas. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb dunten
near term... Wtb dunten sipprell
short term... Dunten
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb dunten sipprell
marine... Wtb dunten sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi36 min 70°F 72°F1015 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi81 min 1.9 62°F 1015 hPa60°F
44090 22 mi36 min 71°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi26 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 71°F 1014.6 hPa61°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi66 min WNW 4.1 G 4.1 70°F 1015.4 hPa (+0.8)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi36 min 69°F 75°F1015.7 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi36 min NNE 4.1 G 4.1 69°F 1015.3 hPa
FRXM3 28 mi36 min 68°F 55°F
PRUR1 34 mi36 min 67°F 54°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi81 min NE 6 69°F 1015 hPa57°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi36 min NNE 4.1 G 6 68°F 1015.4 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi36 min N 8 G 9.9 69°F 75°F1015.5 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi36 min N 2.9 G 4.1 70°F 68°F1015.1 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi36 min NW 2.9 G 4.1 68°F 75°F1014.7 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi36 min WNW 4.1 G 6 67°F 74°F1015.7 hPa
PVDR1 40 mi36 min N 5.1 G 8 68°F 1015.7 hPa51°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi36 min NNE 8 G 11 69°F 74°F1015.1 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 48 mi76 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 68°F 2 ft1014.7 hPa (+1.0)62°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi76 min N 12 G 12 69°F 70°F2 ft1014.1 hPa (+0.7)59°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair59°F57°F94%1015.2 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA16 mi73 minWNW 56.00 miFog/Mist52°F52°F100%1014.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA17 mi73 minN 010.00 miFair59°F57°F96%1014.5 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi74 minN 010.00 miFair59°F57°F96%1014.8 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA20 mi70 minN 010.00 miFair59°F57°F93%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW5S5SW5CalmN5N7N7N11
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NE11NE10NE8NE5CalmNW4CalmNW4NW3
1 day agoSW11SW10
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S6SW8W6SW6W5W5
2 days agoSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm433S4SW8
G14
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SW9S11SW11S10S8SW7SW6SW8SW9
G14
SW8

Tide / Current Tables for Chappaquoit Point, West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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Chappaquoit Point
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 01:33 AM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:08 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:27 PM EDT     0.65 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.44.14.13.52.31.20.50.30.30.511.8344.54.23.32.21.30.80.70.70.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:00 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:03 AM EDT     -0.05 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:00 AM EDT     -4.64 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 09:12 AM EDT     0.20 knots Slack
Thu -- 12:20 PM EDT     4.38 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:47 PM EDT     -0.20 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:53 PM EDT     First Quarter
Thu -- 06:33 PM EDT     -4.40 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 08:12 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:44 PM EDT     0.19 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.930.8-3.1-4.3-4.6-4.3-3.4-1.42.83.94.34.33.82.7-1.5-3.5-4.3-4.3-3.8-2.61.53.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.