Thursday, January24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
North Falmouth, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:50PM Thursday January 24, 2019 6:03 AM EST (11:03 UTC) Moonrise 10:13PMMoonset 10:30AM Illumination 87% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 353 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Today..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 50 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. Areas of fog. Rain likely this morning, then rain this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of rain in the evening.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of snow showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 353 Am Est Thu Jan 24 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure passing through northern new england today swings a cold front through during the evening. Widespread rain and strong south gales will prevail during the day with a few gusts to storm force possible. Winds then shift from the west and diminish this evening. Arctic high pressure follows for Fri and Sat. Another weather system brings a chance of rain and snow showers Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near North Falmouth, MA
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location: 41.64, -70.66     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 240900
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
400 am est Thu jan 24 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure over the great lakes will swing a cold front through
southern new england late afternoon and evening. Showers ahead of
the front will move across the region through the day, bringing
heavy rain and strong winds. Heavy rain will cause potential
flooding, strong winds may cause damage. Behind the front, colder
more seasonable weather moves back in Friday. Colder weather
arrives early in the weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
One trough, embedded in the general flow, will sweep into new
england by this evening. The shortwave trough is supported by a 170-
kt upper jet. The right entrance region of the jet, supportive of
generating lift, will move across our area today and off to the east
by evening. Strong pressure falls over the west virginia central
appalachians area, and a secondary low appears to be forming there.

This will tighten the gradient at low levels, drawing a strong low
level jet over southern new england.

Heavy rain... As noted the past few days, high precipitable water
values are forecast to move over our area today. Values are forecast
around 1.25 inches. This value is well above normal, and about as
high as the pw gets this time of year. Expect periods of heavy rain
today, with the most favorable time coming as the jet entrance
region approaches and maximizes lift. Expect rainfall of 1-2 inches,
potential for locally higher amounts. Warm advection will bring mild
temperatures, reaching the 50s most places. Places with snow on the
ground will see a sizable snowmelt, which will add to the
amount of water running off. This suggests potential for
extensive urban small stream flooding, possibly some river
flooding. A flash flood watch continues through the day.

Strong winds... Already a strong low level jet over the region with
speeds of 65 kt. The deepening secondary low will increase those
speeds, with guidance suggesting 100 kt at 850 mb and 85 kt at 925
mb this afternoon. These speeds are at or above MAX observed
climatological values of wind speed at those level, and suggests
strong surface speeds. The area of maximum gusts looks to be along
the ri and SE mass coasts, diminishing to the north and west. We
are maintaining a high wind warning in ri and SE mass and a wind
advisory from NRN ri through NE mass. Expect some downed trees,
scattered power failures, and other damage.

Instability is so-so, but k index values do reach 30+ and total
values 45-48. The kinematic structure of the storm may allow an
organized line to form. Could be isolated thunderstorms accompanying
the cold front.

Cold front moves through late in the day, around 20-23z. Heavy rain
and strong winds should diminish by that time.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
A sharper upper trough digs over the great lakes tonight and sweeps
across new england Friday. This draws drier air across our area
behind the cold front but ahead of the upper trough. Expect clearing
skies tonight. Lower heights and temperatures aloft also suggest
cooling temperatures, although no lower than seasonable levels.

Temps and heights aloft continue to fall Friday, as the trough
sweeps through along with its supported second cold front. Temps
reach below-normal levels but not excessively so. Cold advection
mixing to near 850 mb and temps there around -12c suggest MAX sfc
temps Friday in the 30s.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
* highlights ...

- cold, dry conditions Saturday
- watching potential outcomes Sunday along an arctic front
- another onset wintry weather, follow-up soaker tue-wed
- potential late week arctic blast
overview and model preferences...

little change through the mid-term periods as the entire E half
of the CONUS is defined by very deep longwave trof, with a link
to the polar vortex. The key remains the mean trof axis, which,
as previous forecaster noted in the 5-day mean height
anomalies, lies generally between the mississippi and ohio river
valleys. While this also introduces generally negative low-mid
lvl temp anomalies, as the first two lobes of the polar vortex
rotate through (late weekend and early next week), they begin to
pivot poleward, with the sfc low pres moving inland of new
england. This action does have consequences, however, as each
lobe begins to shift the mean trof axis e, such that yet another
arctic intrusion will need to be monitored late week. Continue
to note enough agreement between both operational and ensemble
guidance that a consensus blend can be used as a baseline.

Details...

fri night into sat...

arctic cold frontal passage late Fri will lead to strong cold
advection continuing into Sat morning. H85 temp anomalies nearly
-10c. This suggests mins in the single digits to low 20s,
coldest in NW valleys in spite of some evening clouds shsn
associated with the cold fropa. Sat highs mainly in the 20s to
low 30s.

Sun into mon...

modest warm advection and resulting isentropic lift, combined
with a pwat plume between 0.5-0.75 suggest at least a low risk
for precipitation across new england as double-barreled low pres
slides through ny, on and qc. This double barreled low does
have some coastal connection, as an inverted trof, which could
provide a localized focus for heavier precip. However best
dynamic forcing and convergence lie to the west and only catch
up once the best frontogenesis is across northern new england.

Something to watch, because if this occurs earlier, but for now,
chance pops and showery vs. Stratiform is preferred. Thermal
profiles through the column generally cold enough for p-type
remaining sn except where diurnal warming leads to highs in the
mid 30s to low 40s, particularly on sun.

Tue into wed...

second lobe of the polar vortex rotates through, yielding low
pres development well to the sw. Strong warm advection leads the
sfc low pres, allowing low and mid lvl temps to warm, similarly
to the current storm system although with high pres orientation
to maintain cold air longer per latest guidance. With
development to the south, pwat plume is higher than that
associated with the Sun Mon low pres, potentially close to or
around 1.00 inches. If this warm advection occurs as progged,
thermal profiles support a white to wet scenario, with a risk
for continued flooding if rivers remain elevated. Will need to
watch this track timing as some may remain cold enough for
sn ice longer depending on the synoptic setup, particularly of
high pres to the n.

Late week...

this wave arctic cutoff continues to shift the trof axis e,
suggesting a better link to modified arctic air, suggesting a
late week cool down. Any waves moving through this trof will
have to be monitored, but confidence in any one is very low at
this time.

Aviation 09z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... Moderate to high confidence.

Today...

widespread ifr CIGS vsbys in rain with some heavy rain. Isolated
thunderstorm possible. Strong south-southwest winds at 2000-3000
feet, reaching 85 kt and creating low level wind shear. Greatest
impact will be from midday through 4 pm. Winds shift from the
west 4 pm to 7 pm as a cold front sweeps west to east across our
area.

Tonight...

west wind gusting 20-30 kt. Rain ending in the evening.

Cigs vsbys improving toVFR by midnight.

Friday...

vfr. Winds gusting to 25 kt.

Kbos terminal...

conditions lowering during morning push, at lowest midday and
early afternoon, then improving during afternoon push.

Rain overspreads the airport this morning. MVFR CIGS lower to
ifr by mid morning. Ifr CIGS vsbys in locally heavy rain this
afternoon. Winds increase from south with gusts to 45 kt, then
shift out of west toward 23z and diminish. Conditions then
improve. South winds to 75 kt at 2000 ft agl, which will create
low level wind shear.

Kbdl terminal...

conditions lower to ifr during morning push, with worst of
conditions late morning early afternoon. Can't rule out a
rumble of thunder, and isolated south wind gusts up to 50 kts
possible. Llws impact picks up through afternoon. Cold front
moves through around 20z at which point winds shift from the
west and conditions improve.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night through Saturday night: mainlyVFR.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra, slight chance shsn.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Slight chance shsn.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

strong south gales expected through most of the day. Brief storm
force winds possible, but mainly as gusts and mainly during
heavier bursts of rain. Seas build to 14 feet on the eastern
outer waters, with 17-19 feet in the southern outer waters.

South winds may try to drive these seas on the southern waters
toward shore.

Areas of fog may become locally dense as anomalously high
dewpoints move over the cold ocean.

Tonight...

winds shift out of the west during the evening, around 6-8 pm.

Winds should diminish by that time, with gusts up to 30 kt.

Rough seas with 14-17 feet in the evening, diminishing during
the night.

Friday...

west winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 feet but slowly
diminishing.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday through Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5
ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow
showers.

Sunday night and Monday: low risk for small craft advisory
winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tides coastal flooding
Strong s-sw winds drive seas against the south coast, especially
ri and adjacent mass. Sea height forecasts south of ri jumped
about 5 feet with this model run. The numbers drop off farther
east off the islands. We will be adding a coastal flood advisory
from the buzzards bay area through the ri coast.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch through late tonight for ctz002>004.

Ma... High wind warning from 9 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for maz018>024.

Coastal flood advisory from 7 am this morning to 2 pm est this
afternoon for maz020>022.

Flash flood watch through late tonight for maz002>022-026.

Wind advisory from 9 am this morning to 5 pm est this
afternoon for maz005>007-013>017.

Ri... High wind warning from 9 am this morning to 7 pm est this
evening for riz005>008.

Coastal flood advisory from 7 am this morning to 2 pm est this
afternoon for riz006>008.

Flash flood watch through late tonight for riz001>007.

Wind advisory from 9 am this morning to 5 pm est this
afternoon for riz001>004.

Marine... Gale warning until 9 pm est this evening for anz231>235-237-
251.

Gale warning from 7 am this morning to 7 pm est this evening
for anz230.

Gale warning from 7 am this morning to 8 pm est this evening
for anz236.

Gale warning until 11 pm est this evening for anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb doody
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Doody
aviation... Wtb doody
marine... Wtb doody
tides coastal flooding... Wtb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 8 mi34 min 50°F 34°F1010.7 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 8 mi79 min SSE 7 50°F 1012 hPa47°F
44090 22 mi34 min 37°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi34 min S 19 G 23 43°F 34°F1011.7 hPa41°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 26 mi64 min S 32 G 35 49°F 1011.1 hPa (-4.0)
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 27 mi34 min 53°F 39°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 28 mi34 min SSW 26 G 39 53°F 1009.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 36 mi79 min SSW 13 49°F 1010 hPa47°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 36 mi34 min SW 14 G 26 50°F 1009.4 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 37 mi34 min S 26 G 31 48°F 36°F1009.3 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 37 mi34 min S 19 G 26 49°F 36°F1009.7 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 39 mi34 min S 9.9 G 21 48°F 31°F1012.3 hPa
PVDR1 40 mi34 min SSW 15 G 24 53°F 1009.3 hPa53°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 40 mi40 min SSW 27 G 35 53°F 37°F1009.4 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 41 mi34 min SW 13 G 22 55°F 36°F1008.8 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 48 mi74 min S 23 G 27 44°F 4 ft1010 hPa (-3.8)43°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 49 mi74 min S 23 G 29 51°F 42°F4 ft1008.6 hPa (-3.7)49°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi69 minSSW 22 G 3110.00 miOvercast and Breezy52°F48°F88%1011.2 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA16 mi71 minS 16 G 237.00 miOvercast49°F46°F93%1011.7 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA17 mi71 minS 17 G 2510.00 miOvercast51°F50°F96%1010.7 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA19 mi72 minSSW 14 G 2410.00 miOvercast50°F46°F89%1010.6 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA20 mi68 minSSW 83.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist44°F41°F89%1012 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmSW5SW12
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1 day ago----NW18
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NW14NW12NW10NW9CalmCalmW5W6W4W4NW3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW15
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G25
W15
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W17W19
G27
W17W19
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G25
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Tide / Current Tables for West Falmouth Harbor, Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts
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West Falmouth Harbor
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:44 AM EST     -0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 10:28 AM EST     4.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:17 PM EST     -0.81 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:56 PM EST     4.63 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.11.50.1-0.8-0.9-0.50.31.52.84.14.94.83.92.40.9-0.3-0.8-0.7-0.10.823.34.34.6

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:25 AM EST     -4.86 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:27 AM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:01 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:26 AM EST     4.65 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:29 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 11:40 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:45 PM EST     -5.15 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:54 PM EST     0.23 knots Slack
Thu -- 09:00 PM EST     4.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 09:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-2.2-4-4.8-4.7-4-2.32.544.64.642.7-2-4-4.9-5.1-4.6-3.31.13.64.64.94.63.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.