Wednesday, September20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:51PM Wednesday September 20, 2017 9:03 AM EDT (13:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:50AMMoonset 7:24PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 524 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt this afternoon. Occasional gusts up to 35 kt. Seas around 7 ft. Chance of showers, mainly this morning.
Tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 4 ft.
Thu night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 4 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
ANZ300 524 Am Edt Wed Sep 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Tropical cyclone jose slowly moves south and east of the waters through tonight and meanders offshore on Thursday. High pressure builds to the north and west on Thursday, remaining in place through early next week as jose weakens and slowly meanders to the southeast. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on jose.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center CDP, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201105
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
705 am edt Wed sep 20 2017

Synopsis
Jose moves northeast today, then turns east and circles well
southeast of nantucket tonight through Saturday. This may be close
enough to maintain rain and strong wind for a couple of days over
southeast mass, favoring CAPE cod and islands as well as the
adjacent ocean waters. High pressure builds in from the great
lakes with dry weather early next week.

Near term through tonight
7 am update...

thin shower bands with narrow bursts of heavy rain are moving
across SE mass and ri. More substantial showers approaching
nantucket and across the southern outer waters. Looks reasonable
that these will be affecting the islands and even CAPE cod. Less
confidence farther north and west.

Weather elements continue to look in line with the forecast, so
no significant changes at this time.

Previous discussion...

tropical storm jose has turned northeast. The center will pass well
south and east of the 40n 70w benchmark today, slowing to a crawl
tonight.

Winds will increase today, especially along and southeast of the i-
95 corridor, with the strongest winds on CAPE cod and the islands.

Speeds may reach tropical storm force on the CAPE and islands this
afternoon and evening. Data shows some low level mixing, with 30 to
35 knot winds in the layer. So we expect 30 to 35 knot gusts inland
and 35 to 40 knot gusts in eastern mass and parts of ri.

Rainfall has the potential to generate heavy downpours, especially
in southeast mass and ri. Pw values are forecast to climb to around
2 inches, signaling a large amount of moisture available to
precipitate. Flash flood watch continues today across CAPE and
islands.

Offshore swell directed shoreward by jose will maintain high surf to
the south coast, while a persistent northeast wind will drive
water to shore from the gulf of maine. We are maintaining high
surf advisories along the shoreline that is not covered by
tropical headlines.

Lower chance of showers in the ct valley and other western areas.

Even so, the cloud shield is extensive enough to bring mainly cloudy
skies. We stayed close to guidance values for the MAX temps.

Short term Thursday
Jose drifts offshore south and east of the benchmark. This will
be close enough to maintain the moist airmass and bring
lingering showers tonight and possibly Thursday. Total rainfall
has a potential of up to 3-5 inches on the CAPE and islands,
and less than an inch north and west of i-95. We will maintain
the flash flood watch for the CAPE and islands.

Winds similar to today will linger through Thursday before
diminishing. Heavy surf and dangerous rip currents will also
continue through Thursday.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* gusty winds persist on CAPE cod and islands Friday
* dry and seasonable over weekend and early next week
* monitor NHC forecasts as maria heads through caribbean
medium range ensembles favor large scale pattern which features
building upper ridge from southern plains to great lakes as mean
trough develops over western states. This will force tropical
storm jose back to the south and southwest through weekend while
slowly decaying, favoring dry and warmer conditions in southern
new england as winds on CAPE islands subside.

This pattern should remain in place for most of next week, which
has implications on track of hurricane maria. Latest NHC wpc
guidance brings maria northward but off east coast, similar to
jose, as upper ridge remains to our west. At this point maria
bears watching, as we typically advise with tropical systems
approaching bahamas, but for now we expect dry weather early
next week. That said, we could see increasing winds and building
swells again near south coast by Tue or wed.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

today...

ceilings below 1000 feet from worcester east, and 1000-2500 feet to
the west. Vsbys are generally 3-5 miles in eastern mass and 1-3
miles on CAPE cod and islands due to rain and fog. Expect these low
conditions will continue through the day. Low level wind shear will
be generated by tropical storm jose offshore with 2000 foot winds 50-
60 knots across the CAPE and islands.

Tonight...

expect low CIGS and vsbys to continue tonight in eastern mass, while
conditions improve toVFR in the west.

Thursday...

gradual improvement in ceilings from west to east with areas off-
cape becomingVFR by afternoon. Lingering MVFR CIGS over CAPE cod
and islands. North-northeast winds continue to gust near 20 knots
in the west, 20-30 knots in the central hills, and 30-40 knots in ri
and eastern mass.

Kbos taf... High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence in
timing. Sustained nne winds around 20 knots, and gusts increasing to
20-30 knots.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in TAF trends, lower confidence in
timing.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

high confidence.

Thu night and fri... Lingering MVFR ceilings in eastern ma,
otherwiseVFR. N winds gusting to 25-35kt on CAPE cod islands.

Sat and sun...VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

tropical storm jose passes southeast of the waters today, then
lingers well offshore through at least Thursday. This will allow
strong winds to linger over the waters through at least Thursday,
with gusts of 35-45 knots over most of the waters, with gusts 25-30
knots on narragansett bay and mass bay boston harbor.

Building swells have already reached as high as 16 ft at buoy 44008
se of nantucket. Expect high swell will continue through
Thursday, especially over the waters with a southern exposure.

Showers and fog will also linger through Thursday, creating poor
vsbys.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

moderate confidence.

N winds remain strong through Saturday morning, with gusts of
35-40kt on south coastal waters as jose drifts S and away from
southern new england. Winds diminish further as high pressure
builds over region this weekend, but seas will take most of
weekend to subside on open south coastal waters.

Tides coastal flooding
Main concern is for severe beach erosion along nantucket's south
and east shores, south shore of martha's vineyard, and ocean-
facing shore of outer cape, due to long duration of large waves
pounding the shore, which may persist into Friday.

Storm surge of around 2 ft on nantucket late tonight and Thursday
should bring minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding to
nantucket harbor. Minor coastal flooding is expected on
martha's vineyard with a storm surge of 1 to 2 ft, and also
along eastern ma coastline with less of a storm surge but
compensated by wave action with seas around 15 ft offshore.

North facing shore of CAPE cod (bay side, including sandwich)
may see minor coastal flooding Thursday and Thursday night as a
result of strong northerly winds.

For ri south coast, only splashover is expected at worst with
storm surge of around 1 ft.

Tropical storm warnings cover minor coastal flooding and high
surf for CAPE cod and islands. Elsewhere, we will maintain
coastal flood advisory for plymouth county coastline where minor
coastal flooding should be more prevalent, and will keep high
surf advisory posted for entire E ma coastline.

Equipment
Kbox WSR-88D z-r relationship has been changed to tropical to
get better rainfall estimates than with convective. 00z chh
sounding showed precipitable water of 1.93" along with deep
saturated above-freezing layer (10kft warm cloud depth) which
is supportive of warm rain processes.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Tropical storm warning for maz022>024.

High surf advisory until 8 am edt Friday for maz007-019-020.

Coastal flood advisory from 11 am this morning to 3 pm edt
Thursday for maz019.

Wind advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 pm edt Thursday for
maz006-007-013>021.

Flash flood watch through Thursday morning for maz022-024.

Ri... Tropical storm warning for riz008.

High surf advisory until 8 am edt Friday for riz006-007.

Wind advisory from 10 am this morning to 6 pm edt Thursday for
riz002>007.

Marine... Tropical storm warning for anz231>235-237-250-254>256.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Thursday for anz230-236-
251.

Synopsis... Wtb jwd
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Jwd
aviation... Wtb jwd
marine... Wtb jwd
tides coastal flooding...

equipment...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi46 min NE 6 G 15 72°F 73°F1010 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi46 min NNE 6 G 11 70°F 68°F1008.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi154 min NNE 21 G 27 71°F 4 ft71°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi52 min NNE 16 G 22 72°F 72°F1009.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi71 minN 16 G 1910.00 miOvercast72°F66°F82%1011.2 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi71 minN 11 G 2110.00 miOvercast71°F64°F79%1010.7 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi73 minN 11 G 1910.00 miOvercast71°F64°F81%1011.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi69 minNNE 12 G 1910.00 miOvercast72°F66°F83%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN4N5N7N45NE6NE53E3E3CalmNE6E5NE4N6N7N7NE10NE9N7N7N10N9N10
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmS3E4S3SE4S6S7S5S5S5SE5SE4SE4S5E3S6SE3S4CalmE3N4

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 02:01 AM EDT     2.30 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:43 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:21 PM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 10:07 PM EDT     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.52.12.32.221.61.30.80.40-00.51.31.92.32.32.11.81.410.60.2-00.2

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:30 AM EDT     New Moon
Wed -- 01:35 AM EDT     2.72 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:36 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:50 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:32 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:55 PM EDT     2.77 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 07:23 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:57 PM EDT     -0.00 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.22.62.72.52.11.610.50.10.10.61.42.12.62.82.62.21.81.20.70.2-00.31

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.