Wednesday, January17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:49PM Wednesday January 17, 2018 1:17 PM EST (18:17 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 6:30PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 951 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Today..NE winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Snow late this morning. Rain. Chance of snow this afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds around 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..W winds around 10 kt. Seas subsiding to around 1 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 951 Am Est Wed Jan 17 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will move north across nantucket into the gulf of maine today. High pressure will then build in from the southwest through Thursday, then to the south through Friday, and into the western atlantic this weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center CDP, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 171814
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
114 pm est Wed jan 17 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure will track south of nantucket today bringing
accumulating snow to much of southern new england today,
heaviest across western and central ma and northern ct. A
changeover to rain is likely near the south coast. Mainly dry
weather expected tonight into Sunday, with a warming trend
during this weekend. Another low pressure should affect the
region early next week with mostly rain, but there is a risk of
some snow mix ice in the interior.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
115 pm update...

trends in the forecast remain on track for this afternoon. Went
ahead and let the southern tier expire as temps have warmed
above 32 33 and mixing line has pushed into wst to tan to pym.

Any additional precip that does fall in this area will be more
on the order of light rain and or drizzle.

Northern stream shortwave is beginning to deamplify as it
approaches southern new england. This shortwave has helped
developed a few bands of snow. One across the hudson river vally
right over aly with a another one across the east slopes of the
berkshires. We can expect another 1 or 2 inches of snow within
those bands. However, with the wave gets closer, the band will
begin to shift more to the northeast. Thus have kept the warning
across northern worcester and northwest middlesex counties.

Precipitation south of long island appears to be moving at a
good clip. Hrrr and rap model sets are not handling this as
well. Believe that is will continue to advance to the northeast
but remain over ri and southeast ma.

Coastal low is beginning to past ack and move towards the gulf
of maine by tonight. Still could see some lingering snow
showers after 4 pm. But all in all this storm has really wind
down.

Previous discussion...

positively tiled trough continues from the great lakes town
into the southeast. Meanwhile, a coastal low south of southern
new england will slowly strengthen as it moves between the
benchmark and the cape. The combination of these two systems
interacting has resulted in widespread snowfall for the region.

12z and even some of the hi-res models continue to struggle
with this system, especially with the lull in precip across
western ma ct. The focus for snow and any banding is across
eastern half of the region thanks to the persistent
southwesterly flow and good upper level divergence from 300 mb
jet streak. SPC meso analysis is also shows the region in a
favorable 850 mb convergence region, which is helping support
ongoing snow showers. However, this lull will appear to fill
back end, but with lack of mid and upper level forcing do not
expect more than an additional inch or two across western ma.

For the rest of the region, precip shield while strong it is
slowly beginning to break up which will help diminish any
additions accumulations. Current thinking is that vsbys will
increase to above 1 sm with light snow showers WAA continues
across the i-95 corridor for the remainder. May need to look at
some changes to headlines, but still trying to get a handle on
what is occurring downstream. Snow may linger closer to 00z
especially across NE ma as the low passes into the gulf of
maine. Lingering lift and moisture may result in a couple of
tenths of snow.

Mixing line has pushed into the CAPE and along the immediate
south coast. Some locations have warmed into the mid 30s, but
snowing just enough to keep ptype as snow. Latest 12z models
keep the warm air across this location with perhaps making it to
pym. So the CAPE may have seen its great snow this morning,
which was a surprise 3 inches in some spots.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight...

the low will push to the gulf of maine this evening, so will
see conditions improve from w-e. Last of the precip should be
offshore by around midnight. Another batch of cold air will push
in as skies become mostly clear. May see some NW winds gusting
up to around 20 kt along the immediate coast.

Expect temps to bottom out mainly in the teens, though will hold
in the 20s along the coast.

Thursday...

as the h5 trough moves across the region, will see high
pressure ridging build e. Will see w-nw winds up to around
10-15 kt, highest along the coast. High temps will only reach
to 25-30 across central and western areas, and the lower 30s
across E mass and ri.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* dry with a warming trend through this weekend
* another storm may bring mostly rain late Monday into Tuesday
with a risk of some interior snow mixed precip ice
quiet pattern expected through the weekend with a moderating
trend as amplified trough moves into the plains with downstream
ridging and rising heights across new eng. Near normal temps
Friday then warming above normal during the weekend with
readings mostly in the 40s.

The aforementioned high amplitude trough is forecast to lift ne
toward new eng early next week with a stormy period sometime
mon into Tue with decent low level jet moving across the region.

Timing uncertain at this time range but given the amplitude of
the pattern, prefer somewhat slower solution with bulk of the
event occurring Mon night into tue. Ptype also uncertain across
interior as ECMWF would suggest some snow mix ice with strong
high pres to the N ne. GFS mostly rain. Will take several days
to resolve these issues.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

tonight... High confidence.VFR out west to start. Any lingering
MVFR- ifr conditions improving toVFR across ri E mass by
around midnight or so.

Thursday... High confidence.VFR. NW winds gusting up to 20 kts
across S coastal areas, CAPE cod and the islands.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Improving conditions
to MVFR by the afternoon withVFR after midnight.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Conditions should start
to improve within the next few hours as precip tapers off.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night:VFR. Breezy.

Friday:VFR.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today... Seas remain at around 5 ft across the outer waters
through midday, then will build again later today and tonight,
up to 6-7 ft. Seas may reach into the waters E of CAPE ann, so
have hoisted small craft advisories there through this
afternoon, then should subside this evening.

Tonight and Thursday... Nw winds will gust up to 20-25 kt,
highest on the southern open waters. Seas will remain around 5
ft, though will subside may briefly subside across portions of
the eastern outer waters. Have extended small craft advisories
through Thursday mainly for the waters from CAPE cod southward.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ...

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Hydrology
1100 am update...

a flood warning remains in effect for the connecticut river at
middle haddam, where ice jams are causing river fluctuations.

Cold conditions will persist through midweek which will limit
additional runoff. Continued ice jams will remain on some of the
rivers. There will be some increase of snow pack across
interior southern new england as well.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service (ahps) graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for ctz004.

Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
ctz002-003.

Ma... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for
maz005>007-013>016.

Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
maz010>012.

Winter storm warning until 3 pm est this afternoon for maz002-
003-008-009.

Winter storm warning until 6 pm est this evening for maz004-
026.

Ri... Winter weather advisory until 6 pm est this evening for riz001.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm est Thursday for anz250.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz251.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Thursday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc evt
near term... Dunten
short term... Evt
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc dunten
marine... Kjc evt
hydrology... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi47 min NNE 5.1 G 5.1 34°F 35°F1022.3 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi47 min N 4.1 G 5.1 35°F 37°F1021.1 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi62 min N 3.9 G 5.8 35°F 1 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi37 min N 7 G 8 36°F 1022.9 hPa34°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi53 min N 4.1 G 6 35°F 35°F1021.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi24 minN 42.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F30°F92%1021.9 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi24 minN 36.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist33°F30°F89%1021.7 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi26 minNNW 72.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist32°F30°F92%1022 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi22 minNNW 42.50 miFog/Mist36°F33°F93%1020.7 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN3N3N3N3N3N4N4N4N3N4N3N5N5N4NW6N4
1 day agoN9N10N9N8N7N7N9N7N7N7N6N3N3N5CalmNW3NE3E3CalmS3SE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN5N9N9N7NE8N9N9N8N9N11N8N7N8N9N5N12N11N13N8N10N8N8N8N11

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Wed -- 01:45 AM EST     1.61 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:14 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 09:03 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:01 PM EST     2.00 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:30 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 09:38 PM EST     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.51.61.51.310.70.40.20.10.30.81.41.821.91.61.30.90.60.2-0.1-0.10.3

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:05 AM EST     1.85 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:13 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:28 AM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 07:54 AM EST     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:10 PM EST     2.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:47 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:31 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 08:33 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.71.81.81.51.20.90.60.30.10.41.11.72.22.42.321.61.10.70.2-0.1-0.10.31

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.