Monday, November20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 4:27PM Monday November 20, 2017 4:20 AM EST (09:20 UTC) Moonrise 9:27AMMoonset 7:20PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 335 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, locally up to 35 kt in the race. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
Tue..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely after midnight.
Wed..W winds around 10 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 335 Am Est Mon Nov 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds south of the waters today and tracks offshore on Tuesday. A cold front passes through on Wednesday followed by more high pressure for Thursday and Friday. Yet another cold front passes through over the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center CDP, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 200831
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
331 am est Mon nov 20 2017

Synopsis
Low pressure in eastern quebec provides blustery and chilly
conditions across southern new england today. The high moves south
of the region Tue shifting winds to the southwest along with milder
temperatures, followed by a cold front sweeping across the region
that will bring showers late Tuesday night and Wednesday morning,
especially across rhode island and eastern massachusetts. Dry and
colder conditions expected later Wednesday through the end of the
week. Colder than normal temperatures overspread the region next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
330 am update...

fairly high amplitude mid level mean trough moving through the
region this morning with 500 mb temps down to about -36c over lake
ontario per latest SPC mesoanalysis. This instability combined with
cyclonic flow over the northeast yielding periods of cloudiness
across southern new england. Embedded with this large scale flow are
a few lake effect snow streamers from ny state traversing ct into ri
with another band over northwest ma.

00z NAM and other hi res guidance capturing these narrow lake effect
bands very well, so leaned on this guid for the morning hours. Not
expecting much snow but a few of these bands may briefly lower vsby
and leave a quick dusting or coating behind. However most locations
will remain dry. By afternoon model low level streamlines indicates
trajectory will shift into northwest ma. Thus any snow
shower flurries this afternoon will be focused over this region.

Otherwise a mix of Sun and clouds today, chilly with blustery wnw
winds up to 35 mph. Colder than normal with highs only 40-45 except
only mid to upper 30s across the high terrain. It will feel even
colder give the gusty wnw winds. Normal highs for 11 20 should be in
the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
330 am update...

tonight...

mid level mean trough kicks eastward with height rises overspreading
the region as mean ridge pushes toward new england. Anticyclonic
flow will provide dry weather. Some mid high clouds may clip western
ma as warm front lifts northward across ny state into vt. This
transition airmass change will result in temps not as cold as this
morning along with less wind, with winds shifting from wnw to ssw.

So coolest temps likely this evening and then temps leveling off or
rising toward morning especially along the coast.

Tuesday...

short wave ridging across new england as next northern stream trough
dives into the great lakes. Thus dry weather expected. Tightening
ssw pgrad as high pres moves offshore as cold front enters eastern
lakes. A robust low level ssw jet of 40-45 kt develops over the area
tue. Given WAA pattern blyr not fully mixed but model sndgs indicate
up to 35 kt 40 mph possible. So a windy day but this low level waa
pattern will provide mild conditions as 925 mb temps warm to about
+5c, supporting highs in the mid to upper 50s, except low 50s across
the high terrain. About 5-8 degs warmer than normal. Should be a
mostly sunny day as well.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* warm but windy for Tuesday
* cold frontal passage on Wednesday will drop temps through the
day with showers.

* dry but chilly for thanksgiving day
pattern overview confidence...

building high pressure over baja california will push the ridge into
the western CONUS for next week. This in combination of the blocking
high over northeastern canada and greenland will favor east coast
troughing through the period. 12z models and their ensembles are in
good agreement on the large scale pattern. However, some differences
will remain on timing and amplitude of each wave. Overall trend in
the forecast for southern new england will be wet weather for
Wednesday with drying trend into the end of the week. Will have to
continue to watch the weekend as with offshore low to the east and
approaching system from the west and how those two systems will
impact each other. Otherwise temperatures will trend below average
for the week.

Details...

Tuesday night into Wednesday... High confidence.

Mid-level ridge will build over the region on Tuesday as winds
switch to the SW and WAA returns. Temperatures will warm within this
southwesterly wind as 50's return back to the region. A few sites
may be near 60f depending on how much mixing occurs. Approaching
cold front from the west will result in a developing LLJ with 925mb
winds reaching 40-45 kts. Once again another windy day on Tuesday.

Cold front from the great lakes will pass through the region on
Wednesday. A coastal low off the coast of the carolinas appears to
ride along or out ahead of the front. Latest guidance continues to
trend this low closer to the region, thus allowing for more moisture
in the mid-levels. The GFS appears to be on the slow end of the
developing low, thus not capturing enough moisture when the front
moves through. Therefore trended with the ec ukmet NAM for this
portion of the forecast. Precip will begin to overspread the region
overnight and result in widespread rainfall Wed morning. Highest
confidence is south and east of i-95, closer to the mid-level
moisture. Regardless appears that most of the region will see some
rainfall, which highest amounts closer to SE ma.

One thing we will have to watch on Wednesday is the available
moisture and timing of the caa. Some guidance indicates that a few
flakes can fly on the backside of the front. Uncertain on if there
will be moisture. Regardless, trend is only trace to less than if it
does accumulate on the roads.

Thanksgiving into Friday... High confidence.

Behind the front on Wednesday, CAA will move back into the region
for Thursday. High pressure will move south of the region resulting
in a chilly but dry day for thanksgiving.

Passing shortwave to the north Friday morning may bring in some
clouds, but another dry but more seasonable day.

The weekend... Low confidence.

High pressure and mid-level ridge Friday night will lead to a
warming trend on Saturday. Winds will back to the southwest as
another front from the west approaches. Behind this system
anomolous cold air will spill into the region putting temps well
below average. While a few waves will move through this period,
overall precip looks light.

Aviation 09z Monday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High confidence.

06z update...

thru 12z...

mainlyVFR but marginal MVFR-vfr in isolated snow showers. Vsby
briefly lowering to about 4 miles. Perhaps a quick dusting or
coating possible, otherwise no accumulations. Light wsw winds
across ri and eastern ma then becoming wnw 07z-09z with gusts up
to 30 kt. Farther west across ct western-central ma wnw
10-20g30kt.

After 12z...

vfr with sct-bkn050-060. Wnw winds gusts 25-35 kt.

Monday night...VFR. Diminishing wind and becoming ssw.

Tuesday...VFR but increasing ssw wind gusts 25-35 kt.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Scattered light snow
showers til 07z or so with marginal MVFR-vfr CIGS and vsby
possibly briefly lowering to 4sm in -shsn. OtherwiseVFR and
dry.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with
gusts to 35 kt. Chance shra.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Shra
likely.

Wednesday night:VFR. Breezy.

Thanksgiving day through Friday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ... High forecast confidence.

330 am update...

today...

marginal wnw gales with gusts up to 35 kt. Other than a brief
rain snow shower mainly dry weather prevails.

Tonight...

wnw winds slacken and shift from wnw to ssw as high pres slides
south of new england. Dry weather and good vsby prevail.

Tuesday...

ssw winds may approach gale force especially near shore. Otherwise
dry weather and good vsby prevail. Ssw winds will provide a long
fetch of wind along the south coast and will yield building seas.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ...

Tuesday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 35 kt.

Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday night: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
35 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Rain showers likely.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thanksgiving day: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night through Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning until 2 pm est this afternoon for anz232>235-255-
256.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est this evening for anz230-
236-237.

Gale warning until 6 pm est this evening for anz231-250-251-
254.

Synopsis... Nocera
near term... Nocera
short term... Nocera
long term... Dunten
aviation... Nocera dunten
marine... Nocera dunten


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi51 min NNW 16 G 18 38°F 51°F1010.6 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi51 min N 6 G 9.9 37°F 53°F1009.3 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi66 min W 25 G 33 43°F 5 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi36 min WNW 16 G 21 39°F 1008.6 hPa28°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi51 min WNW 5.1 G 12 38°F 52°F1010.4 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi28 minW 610.00 miFair36°F26°F67%1009.9 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi28 minWNW 510.00 miFair35°F19°F52%1010.4 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi30 minWNW 13 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy35°F18°F50%1009.5 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi26 minWNW 8 G 2010.00 miFair36°F19°F52%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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W34W4W6NW7NW4W4W6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmNE6N5N3SE3SE3CalmCalmS5S13
G18
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2 days agoNW16
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NW8NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmS3CalmS4

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Mon -- 02:27 AM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:48 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:42 PM EST     2.20 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:19 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 10:29 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.91.41.71.71.51.310.80.50.30.30.61.21.72.12.221.71.410.60.30.10.1

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:52 AM EST     2.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:45 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:25 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:43 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 01:59 PM EST     2.61 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:20 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 09:24 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.622.11.91.71.310.70.40.40.81.422.42.62.52.11.71.30.80.40.10.20.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.