Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:18PM Monday May 29, 2017 3:02 PM EDT (19:02 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1240 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
This afternoon..E winds 15 to 20 kt...diminishing to 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers early...then chance of showers with patchy drizzle late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy drizzle. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt...diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening...then showers likely after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers at night.
ANZ300 1240 Pm Edt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. A low pressure system passes to the southeast through tonight. A weak frontal boundary approaches from the west Tuesday then crosses the area Tuesday night. A weak cold front then moves over the tri- state from Wednesday into Wednesday night. High pressure builds across the mid-atlantic coast Thursday and Thursday night. A cold front approaches from the west Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center CDP, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 291752
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
152 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Synopsis
A fast moving low pressure system will bring a period of
showers to the region today, however a washout is not expected.

Onshore winds, clouds and showers will result in unseasonably
cool temperatures today. A couple of weak cold fronts may
trigger scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms for the
remainder of the week from to time to time. Otherwise fair
weather with near seasonable temperatures are expected into next
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
145 pm update...

rain assocd with the coastal wave will be moving offshore.

However, the second area of rain will continue to move across
sne next few hours as mid level shortwave lifts NE across
central new eng. Rain will end from west to east late afternoon
and early evening as the mid level dry slot moves in.

Previous discussion...

continue to have two areas of rain, one moving into western new
eng assocd with a mid level shortwave lifting NE from ny pa
border, with second area along the south coast. Dry air above
the boundary layer holding the rain off across northern and ne
ma. Coastal low off the de coast forecast to move east today
with core of low level jet remaining offshore so rain area along
the coast will struggle to move northward. We do expect some
light rain to eventually fill in across northern and NE ma this
afternoon as mid level shortwave lifts NE across central new eng
and the column moistens. However, the rain will likely be
scattered in this region where least amount of QPF expected,
likely less than 0.10". Mid level dry slot moves into the region
from the west late afternoon and evening which will bring an
end to the rain. Updated pops to reflect near term trends.

Unseasonably chilly day with temps remaining in the 50s. But
close to 50 degrees east coastal ma which is about 20 degrees
below normal for this region.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Tuesday
Tonight...

shortwave and deeper moisture will have exited the region by this
evening. However, moist northeast low level flow will probably allow
scattered light showers drizzle to persist into the overnight hours.

Highest confidence is across eastern ma but cannot rule out for
points west due to upslope flow. Aside from drizzle, anticipate
areas of low clouds and patchy fog to persist as low level moisture
may remain trapped below the inversion. Low temps will mainly be in
the upper 40s to the lower 50s.

Tuesday...

weak ridging aloft on Tuesday will keep the region in southwesterly
flow as weak surface high pressure moves south of the region. The
area will remain mostly dry but cannot rule out a few isolated
showers out west.

A quick moving shortwave will pass through the flow during the day
which could trigger showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two.

Highest confidence is out west where better instability resides.

Some hi-res guidance supports the storms that develop in update ny
will moves into the region by late afternoon evening. This is in
conjunction with SPC marginal risk.

Tricky temperature forecast for Tuesday as 850 mb temps support
warmer conditions then what guidance is indicating. However 925 mb
temps show that the maritime airmass will remain locked in over sne
until the later half of the day. Despite some heating in a mix of
sun and clouds, temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low
70s.

Long term Tuesday night through Sunday
Highlights...

* temperatures near normal this period with summer heat and humidity
remaining suppressed well south of new england
* several episodes of showers but also many hours of dry weather too
synoptic overview...

both GFS and ec ensembles support a slow moving omega block pattern
moving across canada this week into next weekend, resulting in
cyclonic flow and below normal heights over new england. This
suppresses the subtropical ridge across the southern states,
precluding summer heat and humidity from advecting northward into
new england. Thus temps here close will be near normal this period
for southern new england. As for precip, cyclonic flow into the
northeast will yield several short wave troughs and attending cold
fronts sweeping across the region resulting in a few chances for
showers and thunderstorms, but also many hours of dry weather too.

Above average forecast confidence on the overall pattern theme but
high uncertainty on timing each individual short waves fronts and
associated timing of shower threat.

Daily details...

tue night...

short wave trough accompanied by modest forcing for ascent coupled
with sufficient deep layer moisture to support numerous showers,
especially late evening and overnight. South to southeast winds will
result in onshore winds and weak low level warm advection. Thus
temps will not be as cool as previous nights.

Wednesday...

warmer than today and Tue with highs well into the 70s as maritime
airmass moves offshore. Deep layer moisture and forcing for ascent
over the area in the morning resulting in a risk for showers.

However by late morning and especially the afternoon k indices fall
rapidly indicating mid level dry beginning to stream across the
region and dry the column from the top down. This drier air aloft
does steepen mid level lapse rates however it appears the dry air
becomes too deep to support convection. Meanwhile at the surface dew
pts remain somewhat elevated in the mu50s to near 60. This yields
mucapes of 1000-1500 j kg. Although deepening mid level dry air will
likely preclude convection from developing. However still 2+ days
away so will have to monitor later trends. Otherwise models in good
agreement on a fairly nice day with the trend being morning showers
giving way to partial afternoon sunshine.

Thursday...

good model agreement that short wave trough exits east Wed night
with slightly cooler and drier air post frontal airmass for Thu with
dew pts falling from the 50s Wed to the 40s thu. Seasonably warm
with highs 70-75. Could be the pick of the week.

Friday...

waa pattern ahead of next short wave trough with a risk of showers
during the day and or at night. Obviously model timing differences
at this time range.

Weekend...

surprisingly both deterministic and ensemble guidance in good
agreement for the start of next weekend with mean mid level trough
axis over or east of the region. This would suggest dry weather to
start the weekend. However models differ on how quickly the
northeast trough reloads with upstream jet energy. Thus Sunday's
forecast becomes highly uncertain. Temperatures look to be near
normal next weekend... Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s.

Aviation 18z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... Moderate confidence.

Through tonight... MVFR ifr conditions will continue. Patchy lifr
fog developing tonight, especially near the coast. Rain will
end from west to east 20-23z.

Tuesday... MVFR ifr CIGS will lift toVFR MVFR in the afternoon.

A few showers or an isold t-storm possible across western ma by
late afternoon.

Tuesday night... More MVFR ifr conditions with sct showers and
isold t-storms moving across the region.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence in taf. Lowering vsbys likely as
fog redevelops but timing uncertain.

Kbdl taf... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

GenerallyVFR. Potential for MVFR CIGS vsbys in afternoon evening
showers and scattered t-storms. Best chance for the latter will be
in western central mass and northern connecticut Tue night into wed
morning. Thursday looks to be mainly dry with another risk for
showers and isolated thunder Fri fri night.

South winds Tuesday night, becoming southwest Wednesday, west
Thursday, and southwest Friday. All winds should be less than 20
knots.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday ...

today... Moderate to high confidence. High pressure building
across the canadian maritimes coupled with a wave of low
pressure passing to our south will generate easterly wind gusts
around 25 knots for the waters. Thus will continue with sca.

Easterly fetch will also build seas between 3 and 6 feet across
our open waters. The strongest wind gusts seas will be across
our southern waters. Rain and patchy fog is also expected to
develop and an isolated t-storm or two can not be ruled out
across our southern waters.

Tonight... Moderate to high confidence. Winds and seas will
begin to diminish this evening and especially after midnight as
disturbance moves away from the region and pressure gradient
weakens. Areas of fog may persist into early Tue am reducing
vsbys for mariners.

Tuesday... High confidence. Improving conditions as weak high
pressure moves over the southern waters. Could see areas of fog
or drizzle but seas and winds will remain below sca.

Outlook Tuesday night through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday night through Friday...

winds less than 25 kt most if not the entire forecast period. Vsby
may be restricted Tue night into Wed with scattered showers and
isolated thunder possible. Dry tranquil likely beginning wed
afternoon into Thu then another round of showers and isolated
thunder possible Fri fri night.

Tides coastal flooding
Latest observations continue to show a storm surge just over a
half foot along the eastern ma coast for this current high tide.

For tonight, another high astro tide of 11.5 feet occurs just
after 3 am in boston. While that is lower that previous nights,
the onshore component will remain with a storm surge of a half
foot or even a bit more. While no significant problems are
expected, very minor nuisance coastal flooding is possible along
the most vulnerable shore roads along the eastern ma coast. Will
hold off on coastal flood statement at this time.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
anz231>235-237.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera dunten
near term... Kjc
short term... Dunten
long term... Nocera
aviation... Kjc nocera
marine... Nocera dunten
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi45 min SE 2.9 G 4.1 56°F 60°F1016.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi45 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 56°F 54°F1015.5 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi33 min NE 8 G 11 55°F 1015.1 hPa50°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi45 min E 8 G 11 54°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi70 minESE 410.00 miOvercast57°F50°F78%1015.6 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi70 minE 58.00 miLight Rain56°F51°F84%1015.7 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi72 minESE 610.00 miLight Rain58°F51°F78%1015.6 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi68 minE 510.00 miOvercast55°F51°F88%1015.6 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S8S7S7S5SE4SE4SE5CalmSE5SE3SE3CalmE3NE4CalmSE3E3E6E7SE3E7E4Calm
1 day agoNE4E3S4SW7S9S5S4S4S3S5S3S4S4CalmSE3SE3S4S5SE64S5S9S9S10
2 days agoNW34N4NW9
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Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Mon -- 12:10 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:02 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 12:58 PM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:38 PM EDT     2.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.211.82.32.62.52.21.81.30.80.3-0.1-0.20.10.91.622.11.91.61.30.90.6

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:21 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:47 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:05 PM EDT     2.43 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.222.73.132.72.11.50.90.3-0.1-0.20.211.72.22.42.321.61.10.70.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.