Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:48AMSunset 7:05PM Friday March 22, 2019 7:57 AM EDT (11:57 UTC) Moonrise 9:10PMMoonset 8:05AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 658 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 pm edt this evening...
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Saturday afternoon...
Today..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw early this afternoon, then becoming W 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely early this morning, then chance of rain late this morning. Chance of showers this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tue night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight.
ANZ300 658 Am Edt Fri Mar 22 2019
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure passes over the ocean waters this morning and then moves northeast along the new england coast this afternoon as it intensifies. The low moves slowly northeast toward the canadian maritimes tonight into Saturday as high pressure builds to the west. The high moves to the south on Sunday before giving way to a cold front Monday. High pressure returns Tuesday into Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center CDP, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221128
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
728 am edt Fri mar 22 2019

Synopsis
Intensifying low pressure off the new jersey coast will bring a
steady rain to the region early this morning then becoming more
showery later this morning into the afternoon and windy late in
the day. Scattered showers will change to a period of snow
tonight with some accumulations expected in the high terrain.

Windy and colder conditions are expected Saturday with another
warm-up on Sunday. Conditions turn colder again Monday into the
middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
715 am update...

according to current obs and msas data, sfc low pres is just s
of LI and deepening through 990mb at the time of this writing.

It will make its closest pass, over S new england within the
next few hours. The deepening process has led to a few periods
of wind gusts 25-35 kt which may linger a couple more hours but
afterwards they will settle to w-nw with gusts 25-30 as these
winds back.

Meanwhile, precipitation will continue to dissipate to a period
of mainly shra dz as the dry slot continues to push into the
area. Could even see a late day break in clouds thanks to w
component of the flow being maximized prior to the comma-head
approach.

Previous discussion follows...

potent vertically stacked low off the nj coast early this morning
with its warm conveyor belt rains pivoting across ma ri ct and
locally heavy downpours at times. However dry slot already
approaching coastal ri. Thus moderate to heavy rain bands will be
short lived moving rapidly south to north and exiting the area 08z-
11z. As dry slot approaches, intrusion of dry air will steepen mid
level lapse rates and yield a risk of isolated thunder early this
morning. This would enhance rainfall rates.

Upstream vigorous trailing arctic short wave over the great lakes
early this morning will serve as a kicker and keep coastal low
somewhat progressive today with its dry slot overspreading southern
new england later this morning. Thus steady rains during the predawn
hours will transition to more showery weather late morning into the
afternoon.

One area of concern is over western ma where strong forcing
northwest of the mid level low may provide enough dynamical and
diabatic cooling for rain to changeover to wet snow, with greatest
risk at elevations above 1kft. Model soundings from the NAM along
with href ptype indicate rain possibly changing to snow from about
09z 5am to 15z 11am. A few inches of heavy wet snow is possible,
again with greatest risk at elevations above 1000ft. Thus will
continue the winter weather advisory for this region. Less impact
later this morning and into the afternoon as precip intensity
weakens and any light snow will have little impact given higher
march Sun angle.

Nw winds increase 25-35 mph this afternoon as low continues to
deepen and tracks northeast along the nh-me coastline and cold air
advection increases across the area. Temps will be seasonable for
late march with highs in the 40s. Although it will feel cooler given
the damp and blustery conditions.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 am Saturday
4 am update ...

* accumulating snow likely high terrain but some snow all areas
* strong northwest winds up to 45 mph & colder
potent arctic short wave pivots along the southern new england coast
with comma-head precip overspreading the entire region, intensity
peaking around 06z. As cold air advection increases and column cools
any rain showers early this evening flips over the snow later this
evening and overnight, all areas including CAPE cod and the islands.

In fact the entire region could pickup a coating to an inch or two
possible as cross sections reveal most of the lift occurring in the
snow growth region, maximizing snowfall potential. Tho with min
temps hovering around freezing across eastern ma snow accumulations
may be confined to colder non paved surfaces here. However
significant accumulations (4-8") are possible in the upslope
regions of the berkshires (above 1000 ft) and perhaps 1-3" in the
worcester hills into tolland county of ct per the hi res guidance.

Not enough confidence to expand winter weather advisory into the
worcester hills and northeast ct, but if 12z model guid continues
this increased QPF trend an advisory may be needed.

As 980 mb low tracks along the me coast, strong NW winds on the
backside of the low overspreads southern new england. As caa
increases low level lapse rates steepen and support NW winds gusting
up to 40 mph at times. Strongest winds will be across western ma ct
where gusts up to 45 are possible. If 12z models trend upward with
winds may need a wind advisory for western ma ct tonight.

Temps falling into the upper 20s across ct and western-central ma
with low 30s in ri and eastern ma.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights...

* windy Saturday, then milder Sunday.

* cold front brings rain showers Monday, possibly starting as snow
showers inland.

* colder weather follows through midweek.

Overview and model preferences...

occlusion, stacked with upper lvl cutoff shifting into the
maritimes, will lead its lingering impacts in the form of cold
and blustery conditions sat. However, between this, and a second
arctic lobe moving S from baffin island, height rises suggest a
very mild, spring conditions Sun into mon. The more robust
wave, settles across the NE as a longwave trof with links to
arctic air. Anticipate a period of colder than normal weather
into mid week. The sfc baroclinic zone, and where it ends up
will ultimately determine timing track of a frontal wave late
mon into tue. Something to watch, but the positive ao nao
support a progressive w-e movement, keeping it mainly to the s.

Otherwise, amplified ridge which has been a persistent feature
across the continental divide and pacific regions of the conus
will begin to shift E late week, yielding height rises and a
return to more spring-like conditions.

Details...

sat...

lingering shsn end early as dry slot wraps into the occluding
low pres early. However, slight continuation of deepening of the
sfc low as it moves toward the bay of fundy. Meanwhile, high
pres upstream is building toward +1030mb. This suggests both a
tight pres gradient and strong pres rises through the daytime
sat. LLJ values to 45-50kt which should be tapped thanks to
enhanced mixing under caa. Wind advisories may well be needed
from early Sat morning into the early evening hours, at which
point diurnal decoupling will begin to limit gusts. Otherwise,
chilly, with h85 temps dipping to about -8c, which will allow
ambient temps to reach the low-mid 40s. The winds will keep wind
chills in the 20s to low 30s.

Sun...

although book-ended by arctic influences, rapid height rises
thanks to meso-ridging will allow h85 temps to reach +2c to +4c
by peak heating. W component to the low lvl flow also suggests
downsloping. Given this, anticipate highs in the 50s, with a
possibility of approaching 60 in some spots where the
downsloping can be maximized.

Mon into tue...

secondary arctic front will be settling gradually across the
region late mon, slowing as it does so. Noting that guidance
continues to support two baroclinic wave development with the
passage, the first which may lead to precip across S new england
deepening on timing. The second remains suppressed late tue
given the synoptic pattern. Will need to watch this period,
because if a coastal passage is close enough (some ensemble
members support this), accumulating sn could be possible.

Otherwise, precip will remain mostly rain given the first wave
passes near peak heating mon.

Mid week...

regardless of the frontal waves, expect a trend toward colder
than normal conditions as h85 temps approach record low values
per SPC sounding climatology. Even if full mixing is realized,
highs may struggle to break out of the 30s Tue wed. Mins will be
dependent on pres gradient, but if weak enough as the high
approaches, can’t rule out low teens or even isolated single
digits in the typical cold spots across the interior. Mainly dry
once a near 1035mb high pres crosses the region.

Late week...

ridging influence, even though weakening will allow for height
rises and warm advection late week, allowing temps to return to
near or above seasonal normals.

Aviation 11z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

today ...

ifr dominates through 15z after which expecting predominantly
MVFR in a mix of lowered CIGS and shra. Could even be a few late
day breaks toVFR ahead of the light sn ra overnight.

Winds peak out of the NE through 14z, then gradually back to the
n, then w-nw by early afternoon. Gusts mainly 20-30kt.

Tonight ...

MVFR in rain showers changing to snow showers all terminals.

Snow accumulations ranging from a coating to an inch or two
possible, but 2-4 inches possible worcester hills into northeast
ct but potentially up to 4-8 inches east slopes of the
berkshires. NW winds up to 40 kt, strongest wind across western
ma ct.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday: mainlyVFR. Strong winds with areas of gusts up to 40
kt.

Saturday night:VFR. Windy with areas of gusts up to 30 kt.

Sunday int Sunday night:VFR.

Monday into Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible.

Chance ra.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Slight
chance sn.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through tonight ...

*** NW gales tonight and Saturday ***
today ...

strengthening low pres off the southern nj coast will move NE today
across southeast ma this afternoon. NE winds up to 30 kt will
accompany this low and then shift to the NW late this afternoon as
it lifts northeast. Rain and fog will lower vsby to 1-3 nm at times.

Tonight ...

gale center in maine waters moves northeast with NW gales force
winds across southern new england waters. Rain showers change to
snow showers lowering vsby 1-3 nm.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

Saturday into Saturday nigh: moderate risk for gale force winds
with gusts up to 40 kt. Rough seas up to 14 ft.

Sunday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Sunday night into Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Tides coastal flooding
Strongest wind and surge occur during low tide this morning however
with low pressure over eastern ma during high tide this afternoon
(around 1 pm) there should be some leftover surge of 0.50 to 1.0 ft
along with modest wave action of 5-10 ft offshore to yield minor
coastal flooding. The greatest risk will be northeast ma where
northerly winds at time of high tide will still result in water
being transported toward the coastline via ekman transport. High
tide at boston is 1 pm with astro tide at 11.7 ft. So expecting
total water levels here ranging from 12.2 to 12.7 ft. Sufficient for
minor coastal flooding.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Coastal flood advisory from 11 am this morning to 3 pm edt
this afternoon for maz007-015-016-019.

Winter weather advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for maz002-008.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 pm edt Saturday for
anz232>235-237-254>256.

Gale warning from midnight tonight to 4 pm edt Saturday for
anz230-236.

Gale warning from 8 pm this evening to 4 pm edt Saturday for
anz231-250-251.

Synopsis... Nocera doody
near term... Nocera doody
short term... Nocera
long term... Doody
aviation... Nocera doody
marine... Nocera doody
tides coastal flooding...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi40 min NE 7 G 16 41°F 41°F992.2 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi40 min NNE 4.1 G 6 42°F 41°F991.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi33 min NNE 13 G 17 42°F 992.2 hPa40°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi46 min NNE 11 G 15 41°F 40°F991.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi65 minN 910.00 miOvercast41°F37°F86%994 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi65 minN 6 G 154.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F37°F93%993.2 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi63 minNE 9 G 176.00 miFog/Mist41°F39°F93%992.2 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi67 minN 15 G 2410.00 miLight Rain39°F37°F93%994.5 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.


Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:37 AM EDT     2.83 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:50 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 09:44 AM EDT     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:04 PM EDT     2.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:02 PM EDT     -0.32 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.22.72.82.521.30.70.1-0.4-0.500.91.72.32.62.521.50.90.4-0.1-0.3-0

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.