Sunday, May20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:10PM Sunday May 20, 2018 5:49 PM EDT (21:49 UTC) Moonrise 10:38AMMoonset 12:31AM Illumination 35% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 325 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms early this evening.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 325 Pm Edt Sun May 20 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure builds across the area waters tonight and into Monday. A weak frontal system will affect the area from late Monday night into Wednesday. High pressure returns Thursday and remains across the area waters through Friday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center CDP, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201931
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
331 pm edt Sun may 20 2018

Synopsis
After a few showers with a cold frontal passage this evening,
drier weather returns through Monday night. Cooler with passing
showers Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening as a warm front
approaches. Mainly dry weather for the rest of the week into
Saturday with temperatures averaging above normal. The risk for
showers increases by Sunday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
Sfc obs and msas mass fields suggest the cold front is currently
draped from about hartford-worcester-boston at the time of this
writing and continuing the slide sse. With the attendant upper
shortwave weakening and flow aloft becoming more zonal, this
front may slow somewhat, but current timing has it fully
offshore of even the CAPE islands after 00z. Sct shra have
developed where some late morning and afternoon clearing were
able to force mu CAPE values to about +500j kg, but with
mediocre lapse rates and low ml CAPE values they have struggled
to form decent updrafts. No TS so far and in fact, will feature
gradually dissipating pops as the front and shra slide S as
cloud cover has kept S ct, ri and SE ma even more stable.

Otherwise, lingering coastal fog possible through the evening
hours, but with developing NW flow behind the cold frontal
passage these should clear on the mainland. Widespread
stratus fog to the W of mvy ack may linger later in the evening
but these too should be clearing with time.

Nw drier flow should lead to clearing through the overnight,
pres rises are relatively meager. Therefore, could be a cool
morning with the possibility of localized decoupling, mins in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Tomorrow...

1025mb high pres noses in from the W through the day as modest
mid lvl ridging returns. Dry wx prevails with some diurnal cu
possible. H85 temps near +10c, but mixing may well exceed this
value, therefore expecting widespread mid-high 70s for highs.

A few exceptions, W downsloping should allow typical downslope
locations like the ct and merrimack valleys to reach around 80,
and sea breezes are possible along the immediate coastlines,
holding highs in the lower 70s. Comfortable with low, well mixed
dwpts.

Tomorrow night...

mainly dry as high pres slips e. Only issue will be incoming
mid and high clouds during the am hours. However, the precip
shield from a remnant MCS should hold off until the daylight
hours. Mins in the 50s most locations.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Highlights...

* cooler with passing showers Tue into Tue night
* mainly dry weather with above normal temps Wed through sat,
coolest Thursday
* risk of showers increases by Sunday
overview...

zonal flow with weak shortwave passage tue, then northern stream
trough will amplify to the north and east Wed into Thu which will
push a cold front through the region. Rising heights and shortwave
ridging follow Fri into Sat then next northern stream trough
approaches Sunday.

Precipitation...

main focus for wet weather this week will be Tue into Tue night as
shortwave passage with weak warm front approaching from the SW and
moistening column will likely bring some showers during this time
period. Best chance appears to be in the afternoon evening. No
surface instability but marginal elevated instability may support an
isold t-storm late late Tue and Tue evening. Looks dry Wed into sat.

We have a cold front moving through wed, but limited moisture and
low level convergence will likely result in a dry fropa. Increasing
risk of showers by Sunday with approach of next northern stream
trough, but confidence is low due to timing uncertainty.

Temperatures...

coolest day of the week will likely be Tue as sne will be influenced
by clouds and some shower activity on cool side of frontal boundary,
but temps close to seasonable normals. Warmer air returns Wed ahead
of a cold front then a bit cooler post-frontal airmass thu.

Potential for summer warmth with temps into the 80s interior fri-sun.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

through 03z... Moderate confidence.

MainlyVFR north of a line from hvn-pvd-ghg, but with a risk for
shra between 19z-23z from n-s as they develop. Ifr lifr S of
this line lingers through the evening, with a risk for a spot
shower as the line of shra dissipates. Winds shift to the w
then NW through the evening.

Overnight into tomorrow... High confidence.

Winds continue to shift to the NW through the early am hours
this will allow for clearing of most clouds into the daylight
hours Monday.VFR dominates, except maybe ack where lingering
fog is possible during the morning.

Tomorrow night... High confidence.

MainlyVFR. Light W winds.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf, at issue is the
exact timing for a shra tsra risk mainly 19z through 21z.

Improvement thereafter.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday:VFR. Chance shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra.

Wednesday:VFR. Slight chance shra.

Wednesday night through Thursday night:VFR.

Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ... High confidence.

Winds will gradually be shifting to the NW all waters late this
afternoon and evening, but should remain below 25kt from now on.

The winds remain below small craft thresholds through tomorrow
night. Seas however were running about 5-7 ft on the SE ocean
waters, so will continue small craft advisory into tomorrow for
these seas, at which point they too should drop below
thresholds.

A few showers cross the waters through the early evening hours.

Otherwise, lingering fog possible mainly across the SE waters,
these too should lift during the overnight.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of
rain showers.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday night through Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas
locally approaching 5 ft.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Fire weather
Spotty locations received as much as 0.5 inches of
precipitation this weekend, but several locations received
less. Given fuels were dry, this may not have been enough to
fully moisten them. Rh values Monday will drop as low as 15-25
percent inland, but winds should remain light out of the nw,
around 10mph most of the day.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 pm edt Monday for anz254>256.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Kjc doody
near term... Doody
short term... Doody
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc doody
marine... Kjc doody
fire weather...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi49 min WNW 11 G 16 77°F 57°F1012.5 hPa (+0.0)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi49 min SSW 7 G 11 73°F 50°F1011.5 hPa (-0.7)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi34 min WSW 9.7 G 12 61°F 1 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi39 min SW 12 G 13 64°F 1006.6 hPa58°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi55 min WNW 5.1 G 13 79°F 54°F1012.1 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi56 minNNW 15 G 2610.00 miOvercast72°F62°F71%1012.7 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi56 minW 9 G 1710.00 miA Few Clouds80°F63°F56%1011.9 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi58 minNW 910.00 miLight Rain72°F63°F73%1012.7 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi54 minVar 5 G 1110.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F64°F55%1012.5 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE33CalmS53S3S4S43S443S6SW4S6SW6S5S8SW8W7W9
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1 day agoE5SE8SE3SE4Calm4NE3N5E4NE3N6N8N7N5N5N5N5N4N5N4CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoS5S8S6S7S5CalmCalmCalmCalmN7N10N9N8N8NE11NE8E9
G17
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G15
5E6E7SE6

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Sun -- 12:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 01:26 AM EDT     0.16 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:14 AM EDT     2.38 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:17 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:54 PM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.40.20.30.81.62.12.42.32.11.81.40.90.50.1-0.10.10.71.41.821.91.61.31

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:15 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 12:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:32 AM EDT     2.85 feet High Tide
Sun -- 10:38 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 01:05 PM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:22 PM EDT     2.29 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.30.411.82.42.82.82.62.11.510.60.2-00.20.81.522.32.221.61.30.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.