Thursday, July20, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday July 20, 2017 10:28 PM EDT (02:28 UTC) Moonrise 2:47AMMoonset 5:37PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 817 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W late this evening and overnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening, then showers and tstms likely late this evening. Slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Patchy fog after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.
Mon..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon and evening, then becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Chance of tstms.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 817 Pm Edt Thu Jul 20 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front will pass across the coastal waters tonight and settle south of the area by Friday night. The front will remain stationary through the day on Saturday before returning north as a warm front Saturday night into Sunday. Multiple waves of low pressure move through the area through early next week, followed by building high pressure for the mid to late week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center CDP, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 210158
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
958 pm edt Thu jul 20 2017

Synopsis
After some wet weather tonight, one more day of hot and humid
weather for Friday. Cooler and drier air moves in for Friday
night. Warm and dry Saturday. Cooler, and more humid but with
unsettled weather follows for Sunday through Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Friday morning
A few updates to the forecast to account for current conditions.

Scattered convection has develop across the i-95 corridor which
is ahead of approaching surface trough and along the nose of an
increasing 850 mb llj. Ml CAPE values are still above 1000 j kg
and with 0-6 km bulk shear values around 50 kts, expect this
cluster to continue fester through the late evening hours. This
especially true for ri and SE ma where dewpoint values are still
in the 70s resulting in a quite unstable region.

Once the trough swings through and dry air pushes into the
region a quiet second half of the night will be in store.

Overnight lows dropping down to around the upper 60s to low
70s. The W SW flow prevailing allowing the maintenance of higher
dewpoints along the S SE coast, likely to see the return of low
clouds and fog. If anything dense, mainly over nantucket. Will
issue another special weather statement highlighting the threat
along with the potential of a dense fog advisory.

Short term 6 am Friday morning through Friday night
Friday...

one more day of heat and humidity. Little if any lifting and
forcing mechanisms, looking like a quiet day beneath a fairly
dry airmass. The boundary layer mixing out to around h85 where
temperatures of +16-17c still reside, should see scattered
cumulus develop as both drier air and faster westerlies mix down
to the surface. Highs upper 80s to low 90s with mid to upper 60s
at first quickly mixing out to upper 50s to low 60s. This will
limit heat indices from climbing into the mid 90s. No heat
advisory headlines are being considered with this forecast.

Friday night...

turning cooler and drier. Low to mid level cool-dry front sweeps
s e. Winds shifting NW ushering in drier air with a slightly cool
airmass aloft. Humidity dropping beneath some scattered to broken
cloud decks. Lows dropping into the low to mid 60s with a few
spots N W in the upper 50s.

Long term Saturday through Thursday
Highlights...

* sat: dry and very warm afternoons but with lower humidity
* Sun into tue: cooler than normal + unsettled with showers at times
* drying trend likely by the middle of next week
overview and model preferences... Noting that the time-mean jet
remains firmly entrenched across new england through the long term
period. This generally has two consequences, one being the
inability to get true subtropical warmth into new england and the
second being the continuation of a relatively active pattern. As
the previous forecaster noted, this by no means suggests a washout.

The first canadian vortex shifts from the ungava bay region offshore
of newfoundland-labrador by the end of the weekend. This will
initially yield more zonal flow, but it is short lived as a second
wave phases and re-deepens the longwave trof in place across the ne
conus. This trof remains the key synoptic player in sensible wx
details across the region through much of next week, and its trof
center's location with respect to S new england will determine
whether the active, wet pattern continues or drier air is allowed to
move in.

Details...

sat...

current indicators suggest that with the vortex to the N shifting
e, this allows a ridge of high pres to move into new england,
keeping the slow moving frontal boundary well to the S and
limiting destabilization somewhat thanks to subsidence and a dry
air intrusion which lower overall lapse rates and moisture
(lowered k- indices). Therefore, will maintain a mostly dry
forecast for the day on sat. The ridging and afternoon mixing
will provide a bit of relief in afternoon dewpoints, possibly
mixing them down into the upper 50s. H85 temps, should be
reached, and given they run around +16c, afternoon highs could
be as warm as near 90 where downsloping is maximized, mid-upper
80s elsewhere.

Sat night into sun...

will need to watch another MCC develop in the great lakes
region and gradually shift along and S of the stalled frontal
boundary through the oh valley to the mid atlantic states. Given
the better thermodynamic parameters remain S of this stalled
front, and weak lapse rates remain in place, am not too keen on
nocturnal convection, as this is a typical case where the best
instability moisture will pull the MCC to the SW of new england.

However, one factor to consider as we approach will be the
remnant cold pool and whether a weak cold pool low pres could
allow the remnants of the system to slide e, or re-form
convection in situ. Will keep pops mainly S through the
overnight hours, but will still need to monitor this as we
approach given the close proximity. Otherwise, noting an attempt
to lift the front N on sun, and with the additional moisture
load could see a round of shra develop but given weak lapse
rates remain and better CAPE remains to the s, only looking at a
spot TS if at all. Still relatively unsettled, and should the
front shift further N than currently progged, it has the
possibility of being more active. Generally cooler (mainly 70s
to around 80 for highs) with more clouds to contend with, but
dewpoints will generally be higher thanks to the increase in
column moisture.

Mon into tue...

with deepening trof move in aloft, am noting guidance in favor
of developing weak slow moving low pres which will gradually
pivot across the region during this 48-hour period. Given some
cooling aloft with the trof, am noting a slight increase in
lapse rates along with CAPE values. Shear does increase too
thanks to cyclonic curvature yielding stronger directional
shear. Overall, a window of potential continuing unsettled wx
with a mix of showers and occasional t-storms. Not a washout, as
dry air will rotate into the region at times as the low pres
moves. However, some heavy rain possible given pwats hover near
1.50 inches. Not a great setup for severe wx, but given the
shear slightly higher lapse rates this still may need to be
watched. Another, mitigating factor may be clouds, which are
likely to be dominant (with generally a few breaks of sun).

Highs likely remain at or below normal thanks to the cloud cover
while overnight mins should rest in the 60s thanks to sustained
dwpts. More to come given the uncertainty in development of the
weak low pres.

Wed into late next week...

base of trof finally shifts E of the region allowing for
ridging and attendant NW flow. This drying and influence of high
pres associated with the ridge should allow for a trend of
drying less unsettled wx for the late week period. Will trend
dwpts down suggesting more comfortable conditions and mainly
dry nil pops.

Aviation 02z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ... High confidence.

Through tonight...

a few isolated showers or thundershowers may linger through
about 03z, but this risk will be dropping with time. Otherwise
vfr, outside of ack where ifr conditions are already settling
and will likely remain most of the night. Some of these lower
cigs may move into CAPE cod, but given W flow, have kept these
as sct few for the time being. Winds diminish, but remain
predominantly w.

Friday...

s-coast ifr CIGS and vsbys eroding, especially over ack. W sw
winds continuing with gusts up to 20 kts.VFR with sct cigs
around 4-5 kft.

Friday night...

continuedVFR. Winds veering out of the W NW with time early on.

Kbos terminal...

low risk of shra tsra activity into evening. OtherwiseVFR.

Kbdl terminal...

ra possible this evening. Will continue with vcsh. Lower risk
of tsra.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

sat... High confidence.

MainlyVFR. A spot shower or thunderstorm possible late, mainly
overnight.

Sun through tue... Low confidence.

Vfr will likely dominate especially inland, however a complex
mix of clouds, occasional shra and isolated tsra could lead to
occasional dips to MVFR ifr. Otherwise, some clouds and fog may
lead to low CIGS vsbys (especially along the coast) to yield
periodic ifr MVFR conditions as well. Timing uncertain.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday night ...

through tonight...

breezy W SW flow continues. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible off the waters off NE ma and S ct. Waves below 4 feet.

Renewed fog forecast along the near-shore s-coast, especially
around nantucket.

Friday through Friday night...

w SW winds through the day dissipating fog. Will shift W nw
overnight ushering in drier air. Gusts below 20 kts. Seas below
4 feet.

Outlook Saturday through Tuesday ...

sat and sun... High confidence.

Mainly quiet boating weather expected. Winds although shifting from
mainly w-sw to the E on sun, should remain below 20 kt. Seas too,
remain low, mainly 3 ft or less on the ocean waters. Only caveat
could be a localized shower or thunderstorm, which may exhibit
stronger winds higher seas locally.

Mon and tue... Moderate confidence.

With a risk for low pres slowly approaching then moving over the
waters seas may build in response to nearly 5 ft on the ocean
waters. Winds are likely to generally remain below small craft
advisory thresholds, but given the risk for higher seas, headlines
may be needed for a time during this period.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Dense fog advisory until 5 am edt Friday for maz024.

Ri... Air quality ALERT until 11 pm edt this evening for riz001>008.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Doody sipprell
near term... Doody dunten sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Doody
aviation... Doody sipprell
marine... Doody sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi47 min N 13 G 16 83°F 78°F1010.7 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi47 min Calm G 1.9 80°F 67°F1010.4 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi164 min W 7 G 9.9 73°F 1010.3 hPa69°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi47 min W 5.1 G 12 83°F 1010.1 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair80°F69°F69%1010.7 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi36 minN 010.00 miFair79°F68°F69%1010.7 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi38 minNNE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F70°F90%1011.1 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi34 minSW 310.00 miFair79°F75°F89%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmS5----------SW6W11
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1 day agoSE5CalmSE5S4S6S4S3S3S3S3S45S44SW6W13
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2 days agoS4S3S3CalmCalmS3S3--CalmCalmS6S3S5SW6S9S7S10S10S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Thu -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:03 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:32 AM EDT     1.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:01 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.42.21.81.410.50.1-00.20.91.51.81.91.71.41.10.80.50.20.10.31.11.82.4

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:46 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 05:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:54 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:01 AM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:36 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:55 PM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:23 PM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.62.11.61.10.60.200.311.62.12.22.11.81.410.60.30.10.51.22.12.73

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.