Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:06AMSunset 6:03PM Friday October 19, 2018 9:04 AM EDT (13:04 UTC) Moonrise 4:00PMMoonset 1:44AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 734 Am Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 am edt this morning through Saturday afternoon...
Today..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt late this morning and this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 734 Am Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure slides into the atlantic today into tonight. A cold front will approach the waters late tonight and move across the waters on Saturday. The cold front moves east of the waters Saturday night. Strong high pressure builds west of the region for the second half of the weekend, building into the local area Sunday night into Monday. This high pressure pushes offshore Monday followed by a weak clipper like system tracking well north of the waters on Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191056
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
656 am edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
After a cold start early this morning, much milder weather returns
this afternoon into Saturday along with gusty winds along the coast.

Temperature swings roll on through the following week. Warm ups out
ahead of sweeping cold fronts associated with light showery weather
and breezy conditions, frost freeze conditions following as high
pressure builds across the region.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
7 am update (no major changes to the forecast)...

after a widespread freeze in many locations early this morning,
high pressure will move off the mid atlantic coast today. The
result will be a milder SW flow of air back into our region.

Despite the cold start, plenty of sunshine and rapidly warming mid
level temperatures will allow for a nice recovery by afternoon. H85
temperatures actually rise to between +8c and +10c by late in the
day. Given the cold start and lowering october Sun angle this will
not be completely realized at the surface. Nonetheless, expect a
nice afternoon with many locations seeing highs recover into the
lower 60s. The only issue will be gusty southwest winds of 20 to
30 mph that develop this afternoon along the coastal plain, strongest
of those across the CAPE islands.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Tonight...

approaching shortwave will induce a fairly strong southwest low level
jet of 35 to 45 knots. This will keep the boundary layer mixed tonight
resulting in much milder temperatures. Lows will only drop into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s in many locales this evening, followed
by rising temperatures along the coastal plain with the gusty winds.

In fact... We did hoist a wind advisory for the CAPE islands. Sst
still 60+ across much of our southern waters which should allow the
strong low level jet to mix down at times... Resulting in southwest
wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots.

We also expect skies to become mostly cloudy overnight as low level
moisture increases ahead of the shortwave. A few showers should
also develop... Particularly across the far southeast new england
coast on the nose of the LLJ and where the moisture is deeper. Far
from a washout though as much of the night will feature dry weather.

Saturday...

any left over showers should exit the region by mid to late morning
with the departing shortwave. Will continue the wind advisory into
the late morning hours across the CAPE islands... But should see wind
diminish behind shortwave. In fact... With partial sunshine and a
mild start high temperatures should soar well into the 60s across
many locations. Dry weather should dominate after any left over
showers exit the region by mid to late morning. However... An
approaching strong cold front may result in a few more showers
developing late in the afternoon early evening across our western
zones.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
* highlights...

- rolling temperature trend through midweek
- with any frontal passages, expect showery weather, breezy winds
- in wake, frost freeze conditions possible
* overview...

rolling temperature trend. NE atlantic block downstream of a eastern
n america h5 preferred trof and western N america split-flow regime,
as N pacific energy ejects e, +pna reloads in a +ao environment, and
we see shots of cold, canadian air at times through the weekend into
the early-half of next week. Cross-polar flow, greater
baroclinicity, local wind enhancement associated along sweeping
cold fronts. Mainly continental airmass association, expecting
some showery weather, a few wet snowflakes possible. Warmer
rebounds in-between thanks to the upstream s-branch of
aforementioned split-flow.

But a change is in the air. Most N hemisphere open, progressive, n
pacific jet MAX rounds the E hemisphere into the W conus. Weakened
epo, W CONUS split-flow and E CONUS h5 trof nudged downstream. The
pattern opens briefly, but a wary eye on energy ejecting e, riding
over W CONUS high terrain and obtaining lee cyclogenesis towards the
e CONUS into late october. Models continue to hint on possible storm
development, however an uncertain reality given deterministic and
ensemble model spread, low confidence forecast, unable to make any
outcome determination.

Gfs canadian continues to be progressive over ec ecens. Ukmet
somewhere in-between. The split in forecast guidance mid to late
week. Consensus preference early, trend with greater ec weighting
late week.

* discussion...

Saturday night into Sunday ... Cold air advection, steepening lapse
rates, mid-level trailing vortmax. With lingering column moisture,
in addition to breezy NW winds held below wind advisory criteria, 30
to 35 mph, associated with pressure rises, can't rule out scattered
rain snow showers. High outcome confidence over N W high terrain.

Little to no accumulation.

Sunday night ... Stray from coldest MOS guidance but it'll still be
chilly. Building surface ridge but still good NW flow aloft aligned
with prevailing h5 trof, energy continually streaming through. Can't
rule out mid-level cloud decks and mix down of winds, so not looking
like an ideal cold environment. Dry.

Monday through Tuesday ... Chilly and dry Monday, return warmer air
and some possible showery weather courtesy of low-level isentropic
ascent along a lifting warm front. Rebound warmer temperatures with
chance pops. Light outcomes, hardly a washout given more continental
airmass association.

Wednesday into Thursday ... Low confidence forecast, but if leaning
with ec ecens, linger a stalled frontal boundary longer in vicinity
while holding temperatures at or slightly below seasonable beneath a
near-zonal environment. Some clouds and light showers at times. A
sharper cold front not until late going into Friday.

Friday onward ... Little to no confidence. Continued exacerbated
spread among deterministic ensemble models. Again, watching energy
ejecting E from h3 N pacific speed MAX into W conus. How it evolves
e remains highly uncertain, outcomes widely unknown.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Today...

vfr. Few-sct 050-060. SW gusts 20-30 kts developing by afternoon
across coastal plain terminals. Strongest gusts across cape
islands.

Tonight...

vfr becoming MVFR after midnight. Continued gusty 35-40 kt sw
winds over the CAPE islands. Few shra possible after midnight,
greatest chance also over the CAPE islands.

Saturday...

any lower ceilings should improve to mainlyVFR by late morning
early afternoon. Gusty SW winds along the coastal plain should
diminish some during the afternoon.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts to 40 kt. Slight chance shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Sunday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Monday night through Tuesday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

Today...

sw wind gusts increase to between 20 and 30 knots by afternoon
across the waters ahead of an approaching shortwave.

Tonight and Saturday...

strong SW low level jet developing coupled with the relatively
mild ocean will allow 30 to 40 knot wind gusts over most waters
tonight into Sat morning. Gale warnings posted for all waters
except small craft headlines for boston harbor narragansett bay.

Long southwest fetch should allow seas to build to between 6
and 9 feet across our southern waters. The winds should begin to
diminish Saturday afternoon as the core of the low level jet
lifts northeast of our region.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for ctz002>004.

Ma... Freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for maz005>007-
009>013-017>021.

Frost advisory until 9 am edt this morning for maz014>016-022-
023.

Wind advisory from 11 pm this evening to noon edt Saturday for
maz022>024.

Ri... Freeze warning until 9 am edt this morning for riz001>007.

Marine... Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to noon edt Saturday for
anz231>235-237-254>256.

Small craft advisory from noon today to noon edt Saturday for
anz230-236.

Gale warning from 11 pm this evening to noon edt Saturday for
anz250-251.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Frank sipprell
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi34 min W 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 64°F1026 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi34 min W 1.9 G 5.1 44°F 65°F1025.3 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi71 min W 14 G 19 51°F 66°F3 ft
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi34 min W 13 G 16 45°F 1025.9 hPa32°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi34 min W 6 G 8

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi71 minS 610.00 miFair35°F28°F78%1025.1 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi71 minN 010.00 miFair30°F28°F92%1025.6 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi73 minS 610.00 miA Few Clouds34°F28°F82%1024.7 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi69 minVar 510.00 miFair39°F28°F65%1025.1 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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2 days agoNW11NW11
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W96SW6NW8SW6SW5SW4SW6S4S4S6S4--SE3S3S7S5S5S4S4S3

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
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Fri -- 01:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:15 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:29 PM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:25 PM EDT     2.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.71.51.20.90.60.40.611.41.821.91.81.61.41.10.80.60.611.41.82

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:51 AM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:22 AM EDT     2.14 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:13 PM EDT     0.61 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:03 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     2.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.61.30.90.60.50.71.11.51.92.12.121.81.51.20.80.60.71.11.61.92.22.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (9,2,3,4)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.