Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:16PM Saturday May 27, 2017 7:47 AM EDT (11:47 UTC) Moonrise 7:18AMMoonset 10:18PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 633 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt...becoming sw this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy drizzle in the morning.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely. Chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt...becoming sw. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers at night.
Wed..SW winds around 5 kt...becoming w. Seas 1 ft or less. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 633 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Multiple weak waves of low pressure will pass to the south through Monday...as high pressure gradually builds down from southeastern canada. This high will retreat to the northeast Monday night...followed by a series of weak fronts moving across from Tuesday through Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 271057
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
657 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
Weak high pressure building across the region pushing E round which
onshore flow will usher slightly cooler air and an abundance of
clouds along with the possibility of drizzle. Into next week, low
pressure in the great lakes generates a coastal low late Monday
that passes off nantucket on Tuesday. This will bring wet weather
on memorial day. Daytime clouds and scattered showers will pop
up each day Tuesday through Friday keeping seasonable temperatures.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
700 am update...

a few modifications early this morning. Periods of drizzle
continues across the immediate ma eastern coastline. Soundings
indicate that the low level moisture will dry out somewhat over
the next few hours. Otherwise filter sunshine today as clouds
break up this morning but fill back in this afternoon.

Previous discussion...

seasonable conditions, however it'll be cooler towards the E while
warmer w. Weak high pressure in control and subsequently light winds
allows fore sea-breezes onshore flow. Marine stratus lingering round
the departed low occlusion, the N NE cloud-steering flow along with
boundary-layer mixing of residual moisture per recent rains, expect
more broken to overcast low clouds over the e-half of new england,
while scattered to the W around 2-4 kft agl, this beneath broader
cyclonic flow aloft. Certainly impacts on the temperature profile.

Will be chilly along the E ma coast, 60s adjacent inland while into
the low 70s out in the ct river valley. Following closely with high-
res forecast model temperature guidance on trends, leaning with
warmest MOS guidance with respect to the ct river valley where mid-
70s is certainly possible given light winds outside of sea-breezes.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Tonight...

turning cloudy with the possibility of drizzle. With high pressure
shifting e, will see return S onshore flow. This beneath a building
mid to upper level ridge, moisture pools beneath the dry inversion.

A weak upslope component, at minimum would expect marine stratus to
expand, but also given a sweeping weak mid-level trough and impulse
energy, can not rule out the possibility of drizzle. All aside, it
would appear to be a cool and damp night. Lows around the upper 40s.

Sunday...

so then the question becomes as to whether overnight marine stratus
lifts and or breaks up or rather holds out and remains low across
the region. Subsequent temperature implications. The mid to upper
level ridge in place as high pressure remains offshore. The onshore
flow continues beneath the dry inversion. Clouds and cool conditions
not out of the question, but the magnitude even wrf-model solutions
can't agree upon. A consensus blend given the uncertainty yields
broken to overcast cloud decks that lift through the day. Would see
temperatures warm to seasonable levels, upper 60s to low 70s, the
coolest of conditions along the shores in the low to mid 60s.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Highlights...

* risk of rain returns Sun night into memorial day
* at or below normal temperatures will occur this upcoming week
* unsettled weather pattern continues with hit or miss showers
through the period
pattern overview...

00z guidance continues to be in agreement for the extended forecast.

However there are some difference in timing and strength of each
system. Mid to upper level ridge across the region on Sunday will
begin to give way approaching trough over the great lakes. Potent
shortwave rounding the trough will develop a surface low over the
mid-atlantic on Monday and track near southern new england Monday
night Tuesday. Beyond that, broad upper level trough will take hold
over the great lakes and northeast through the remainder of the work
week as strong ridge builds over the rockies. Bermuda high pressure
will keep the region in a moist southwest flow aloft resulting in a
chance of precip with each passing shortwave.

Temperatures...

broad upper level trough over the region will keep any summer-like
heat at bay through the period. Monday will be the coolest as low
pressure moves through. Otherwise anticipate generally seasonable
conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday thanks to southwest flow aloft
and thermal ridge. Resulting in high temps in the upper 60s to mid
70s. Mid-level wave and associated front on Thursday drop temps
aloft to well below average for late may. This will keep temps to
below climo with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s into Friday.

There is the potential that next Saturday may trend a bit warmer as
upper level trough begins to exit the region. However, the low could
linger a bit longer into next weekend. Overnight lows will linger in
the 50s through the period.

Precipitation...

a spot shower and or drizzle is possible on Sunday night despite
upper level ridge aloft. Moist east flow from passing surface high
will be trapped under an inversion as noticed in model soundings.

The berks and worcester hills have the best shot for precip from
upslope flow, this is still a low risk.

The first chance for widespread rainfall will come on memorial day
as low pressure system tracks over the great lakes and towards the
northeast. A secondary low looks to develop over the mid-atlantic
and with an increasing LLJ combined with pwats near an inch,
anticipate the risk for showery weather. Timing can still change,
but appears that the later half evening on Monday may dry out from
west to east as bulk of the precip moves in morning into early
afternoon. There continues to be a chance for some thunderstorms on
Monday as LI are below 0 and tt above 50. Why the risk is more
elevated GEFS members are indicating some surface CAPE which could
be enough for a few thunderstorms when the bulk of the precip moves
through.

Beyond Monday, there is a hit or miss chance for showers through
much of the period as upper level disturbance rotates through the
flow. Certainly not a washout by any means but believe that Tuesday
and Wednesday have the better shot for showers with Thursday
trending a bit drier thanks to northwest flow aloft.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

sct-bkn MVFR CIGS lingering across E ma, otherwise low-endVFR. Sea-
breezes developing around 15-16z.

Tonight...

cigs becoming bkn-ovc, lowering to ifr, possible lifr, especially
across the interior. Collocated threat of -dz into the early morning
hours which may lead to vsby restrictions. Light onshore flow out of
the S e.

Sunday...

bkn-ovc CIGS slowly rising ifr towards MVFR low-endVFR mix.

Continued light onshore S flow.

Kbos taf... MVFR to low-endVFR stratus will be a nuisance a
majority of the forecast timeframe. Expect a sea-breeze around
15-16z today with sustained onshore flow up around 10 kts.

Kbdl taf... Ifr-lifr mix with -dz possible overnight towards the
early morning hours Sunday.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Monday... Deteriorating conditions to MVFR ifr in showers and
possibly a thunderstorm. SE winds less than 20 kts.

Tuesday into Wednesday...

lingering ifr MVFR will improve toVFR for most locations. Areas of
MVFR in passing showers are still possible for Tuesday and again
Wednesday. Light E wind Tuesday becoming S in the afternoon, then
w SW Wednesday. Speeds less than 15 kts.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ... High confidence.

Beneath high pressure, winds will remain light while mainly onshore
southerly throughout the forecast period. Seas subsiding, good
boating weather though cool given expected broken to overcast marine
stratus at times, along with the threat of drizzle overnight into
the early morning hours Sunday.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Moderate confidence.

Winds less than 20 knots and seas less than 5 feet through the
period. Showers and isolated tstms possible on Monday. Drying trend
into the work week.

Tides coastal flooding
Though astronomical tides will be high for another night in a row,
winds as well as swell and wave action will be light. Given such
conditions, do not expect there to be much in the way of impacts
along the coast in regards to vulnerable shoreline roads becoming
inundated. Thus no coastal flood statement issued with this forecast
package.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 2 pm edt this
afternoon for anz254>256.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas until 11 am edt this
morning for anz235-237.

Synopsis... Dunten sipprell
near term... Dunten sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Dunten
aviation... Dunten sipprell
marine... Dunten sipprell
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi48 min NW 5.1 G 7 58°F 59°F1011.6 hPa (+2.0)
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi48 min NNW 2.9 G 5.1 58°F 57°F1010.5 hPa (+1.7)
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi48 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 57°F 54°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 38 mi33 min NW 5.1 G 7 58°F 1010.2 hPa51°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi48 min NNW 2.9 G 4.1 59°F 1011.1 hPa (+1.9)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi55 minNW 510.00 miOvercast59°F48°F69%1011.1 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi55 minN 010.00 miOvercast57°F52°F83%1011.2 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi57 minN 810.00 miPartly Cloudy57°F46°F69%1010.9 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi53 minN 010.00 miOvercast55°F53°F94%1011.2 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8N6NW5N8NE43NW3N4NW34N4NW9
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1 day agoN7NE96E6E11
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2 days agoN33CalmN5E6E5E5--E6E7E5NE6E5S6S5S6CalmE3NE3CalmE3NE3NE5NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Sat -- 03:11 AM EDT     2.75 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:10 AM EDT     -0.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:44 PM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:13 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.81.72.42.72.72.421.40.90.4-0.1-0.4-0.10.71.522.121.61.30.90.50.1-0

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:33 AM EDT     3.34 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:18 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 09:58 AM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:11 PM EDT     2.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:03 PM EDT     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.92.83.33.332.31.60.90.3-0.2-0.4-0.10.81.62.22.52.42.11.510.60.2-00.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.