Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Glastonbury Center, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:29AMSunset 8:23PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 1:22 AM EDT (05:22 UTC) Moonrise 10:48AMMoonset 11:39PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1034 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog late with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Tstms likely with chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms in the evening, then tstms likely after midnight.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..SW winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SE winds around 5 kt, increasing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1034 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure remains offshore tonight. A cold front will approach from the west on Tuesday and move through late in the day into Tuesday night. High pressure builds in for Wednesday through Friday. An area of low pressure then impacts the region for the weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Glastonbury Center, CT
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location: 41.66, -72.63     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 170220
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1020 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018

Synopsis
Isolated showers and thunderstorms overnight in northern
massachusetts, otherwise mainly dry and muggy weather. A cold
front will bring a period of widespread showers and thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and night with localized torrential rainfall.

Other than perhaps some lingering showers early Wednesday,
mainly dry weather is anticipated for the rest of the work week
with warm afternoons but lower humidity. Unsettled weather may
return sometime next weekend along with increasing humidity.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
1015 pm update...

cluster of thunderstorms in northeastern franklin and
northwestern worcester counties has begun to lift northeastward,
which will reduce localized flooding threat. Still have more
than 1500 j kg of surface-based CAPE across western and
northern ma, so cannot rule out isolated showers tstms
continuing after midnight, but overall, trend should be downward
as the gradient flow out of the ssw continues to yield a marine
influenced airmass.

The overnight continues to look like more of stratus development,
rather than fog, as mixing near the surface may limit the
ability for dense fog to form. Satellite imagery with the
nighttime microphysics channel shows the fog confined to the
south coast from southern ri to buzzards bay and from near
chatham to nantucket.

Little change to temperature forecast on this update. Have upped
pops to chance category for northern ma.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
* localized urban flash flooding possible Tue afternoon night
* isolated severe thunderstorms possible Tue afternoon evening
Tuesday and Tuesday night...

active weather on tap for the region as a cold front approaches from
the west. This will tap an anomalous airmass in place with a
southerly LLJ pwats around 2+ standard deviations above normal.

There is plenty of forcing along the front so expect a period of
widespread showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night.

The bulk of the activity should come to an end across the interior
by midnight and wind down along the coastal plain by daybreak.

The two main concerns revolve around a localized flash flooding
threat along with the potential for a few severe thunderstorms. We
will discuss them both below.

1) heavy rain localized urban flash flood potential:
pwats in excess of 2 inches along with 70+ dewpoints, strong
forcing, and modest instability has us concerned for the potential
of localized mainly urban flash flooding. We also have southwest
flow which is parallel to the cold front and can allow for training
of the showers and thunderstorms. This will result in the potential
for torrential rainfall and perhaps localized rainfall amounts of 2+
inches in one hour. If these amounts are realized over some of our
urban centers... The threat is there for localized urban flash
flooding. The greatest forcing instability appears to be along and
especially northwest of the boston to providence corridor. The next
shift may have to consider a flash flood watch if confidence
increases. Regardless... Pockets of heavy rainfall will certainly
result in poor drainage street flooding with the main time frame of
concern Tuesday afternoon and night.

2) severe weather potential:
the threat exists for a few severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and evening... With the primary threat being locally damaging
straight line wind gusts. Appears there will be enough time to
destabilize... Despite some clouds for 1500 to 2500 j kg of CAPE to
develop. The main area of concern is northwest of the boston to
providence corridor... With the highest risk across western and
northern ma where guidance indicates better shear updraft helicity.

There also will be some low level helicity... So can not rule out a
rotating thunderstorm or two. While we do see the potential for
isolated pockets of wind damage... There are some factors that we
think will prevent this from being a widespread severe weather
outbreak. The 0 to 6 km shear is 25 to 35 knots which is okay... But
probably not enough for widespread severe weather. Another limiting
factor is poor mid level lapse rates... But 70+ dewpoints will be
able to compensate for that to some degree. All in all... A few
strong to severe thunderstorms seem like a reasonable bet mainly to
the northwest of a boston to providence corridor.

High temperatures should reach well into the 80s on Tuesday and it
is possible that a few locations break 90. This will depend upon
how much partial sunshine is realized during the first part of
Tuesday. If this occurs its possible that heat index values reach
into the middle 90s for the second day in a row across portions of
the region. Confidence was not high enough to issue a heat advisory
at this point... But later shifts may have to take another look. Low
temperatures by daybreak Wednesday should be down into the 60s to
near 70 as cooler air begins to work into the region behind the cold
front.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* dry and less humid for the rest of the work week
* showers storms may return next weekend
overview...

16.12z guidance is in relatively good agreement through the
weekend, at which point there are some disagreements with a
deepened trof and development of sub-tropical low pres near
florida or the carolinas. While these will gradually converge
through the week, the synoptic pattern is such that a general
consensus can be used for this long term forecast update. The
trof from tue-wed will give way to rising mid and upper lvl
heights, an amplification process forced by digging wave into
the n-central conus. This trof, as it continues to deepen and
shift E will become the primary driver of wet and unsettled
conditions for the late weekend and early next week.

Temperatures...

h85 temps beginning Wed average around +12c. With continued
warm advection and height rises through fri, they are expected
to reach around +15c. This suggests a gradually warming trend
through the late week, with seasonably mild highs throughout,
mainly in the mid 80s away from the coastlines, where sea
breezes will keep some areas in the 70s especially thu, when sfc
pres gradient is weakest. Cooler onshore flow is expected sun,
with inverted ridging implying flow off the gulf of maine.

Humidity increases Sun into Mon as the subtropical moisture
stream is driven N into new england by the upstream trof.

Overall, seasonably summer like with most comfortable lows in
wed night and Thu night before the humidity increases.

Precipitation...

with rising heights ridging yield sfc high pres development
beginning wed, dry wx is expected to prevail into at least sat
based on mean timing. By Sun mon, with increasing pwats (overall
average is about 2.00in or +1 std deviation above normal).

Given the moisture is of subtropical, or even tropical origins,
periods of heavier rain are possible, which will need to be
monitored. Regarding instability, it will be dependent on how
deep within a developing warm sector S new england will get, but
with deep S flow delivering marine layer, this may inhibit
destabilization. Overall, dry through early in the weekend, with
a shift toward wet, unsettled conditions late weekend and early
next week.

Aviation 02z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ...

1015 pm update...

overnight... Moderate confidence. MainlyVFR before midnight,
except ifr on parts of CAPE cod and on nantucket. Should see
MVFR-ifr ceilings advect in from southeast to northwest
overnight as the boundary layer cools. Lowest ceilings most
likely across southeast new england. Most of the widespread fog
will likely be confined to the south coast, cape, and islands
with the southwest winds expected.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... Moderate confidence. Improvement to
MVFR to evenVFR conditions should occur in most locations by
Tuesday afternoon except lower CIGS vsbys may prevail across
portions of the CAPE and islands. However, a period of
widespread showers and thunderstorms with locally torrential
rainfall are expected mainly Tuesday afternoon and night. A few
of the storms may result in localized strong wind gusts. Ifr to
even lifr conditions can be expected in the heavier showers and
thunderstorms. Lastly... A period of southwest wind gusts around
25 knots are anticipated along the coastal plain Tuesday
afternoon with good mixing near the land. Improvement should
occur from west to east after midnight.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. In question is
timing of period of possible development of overnight low
cloudiness.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday through Thursday:VFR.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible.

Friday:VFR.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Patchy br.

Saturday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Overnight... High confidence. Winds and sea should remain below
small craft advisory thresholds.

Tuesday and Tuesday night... High confidence. Near shore
southwest wind gusts near 25 knots are expected to develop
Tuesday afternoon with good mixing ahead of the approaching cold
front. We have hoisted a small craft advisory for this region.

In addition... Long southwest fetch will result in seas building
to between 3 and 5 feet Tuesday into Tuesday evening across the
outer waters... Where we have also posted headlines. A few strong
thunderstorms are possible late Tue into Tue night mainly
across our near shore waters north of boston.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Thursday night through Friday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from noon to 6 pm edt Tuesday for
anz230>234-236-251.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Tuesday for anz235-
237.

Small craft advisory from 6 am to 11 pm edt Tuesday for anz250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Frank doody field
near term... Field frank
short term... Frank
long term... Doody
aviation... Field frank doody
marine... Field frank doody


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 30 mi34 min S 4.1 G 6 75°F 79°F1013.4 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 35 mi34 min S 1.9 G 5.1 73°F 69°F1013.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 36 mi52 min SW 12 G 16 75°F 2 ft
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 45 mi40 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 75°F 73°F1012.5 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT5 mi29 minS 410.00 miFair76°F71°F85%1012.6 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT15 mi29 minS 310.00 miA Few Clouds74°F70°F88%1013 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT20 mi31 minS 710.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F70°F84%1012.6 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT20 mi27 minS 58.00 miFair73°F71°F94%1013.9 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS4CalmSE3CalmCalmSE3SE4CalmS6S9S53SE5S9S10
G18
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1 day agoS5S3CalmS3SW3S6S3S353SW5NE8SE5S10S7S6S8S6S5S5S7S5S5Calm
2 days agoCalmS3S3S3CalmCalmCalmSE4E3CalmSE4SE66SE8S7S10
G18
S6S8SE4S7S5S8S5S4

Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Tue -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:30 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 05:39 AM EDT     2.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:27 PM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:15 PM EDT     2.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.100.41.11.82.32.32.21.81.510.60.2-0.1-00.61.31.92.22.221.71.30.9

Tide / Current Tables for Portland, Connecticut
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Portland
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:02 AM EDT     2.80 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:31 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:16 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     2.63 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.51.322.62.82.72.31.81.20.70.2-0.10.10.71.42.12.52.62.421.61.10.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.