Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fort Jones, CA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 4:40PM Thursday December 13, 2018 11:41 AM PST (19:41 UTC) Moonrise 11:57AMMoonset 10:45PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 836 Am Pst Thu Dec 13 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..High and steep to very steep seas will continue through much of the forecast period, with several heavy swell trains and multiple fronts expected well into next week. Steep to very steep swell dominated seas will continue today. Southerly winds will increase to gales ahead of a strong front tonight into Friday. Another heavy swell train arrives at the same time, bringing combined seas to around 25 feet Friday. The next front will bring gales late Saturday into Sunday, and another swell train may bring the highest seas of the season so far on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fort Jones, CA
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location: 41.67, -122.83     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 131815
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1015 am pst Thu dec 13 2018

Updated aviation discussion
Update Fog has developed in several areas this morning, but not
to the extent of previous days. Most oft he areas that have seen
fog this morning are where higher clouds were either absent or not
as thick. These areas should burn off through the morning. Have
added fog to the morning forecast, but no other updates appear
necessary.

Primary forecast concerns today will focus on the next two
upcoming storm systems. Models have come into good agreement this
morning concerning the first, which arrives this evening into
tomorrow. Yesterday, the NAM and other higher resolution models
were showing a significantly stronger system than the GFS and
others, with a deepening surface low forming off the oregon
coast. This morning, nearly all models are in agreement that there
will be a surface low, but much further north, and winds are now
trending down towards a more typical event. We will be diving
more into this today, along with the next system due in on Sunday,
which is trending wetter than previously. Expect decisions on
upgrading our current high wind watch by the afternoon, if not
sooner
for more information on these systems and the rest of the
forecast, see the previous discussion below. -bpn

Aviation For the 13 18z tafs... Shallow fog exist in the rogue
valley, including medford and grans pass, and the umpqua basin,
including roseburg this morning. These locations should see
improving conditions around 20z, but it's possible this could be
delayed by an hour. The taf's at roseburg and medford show
conditions improving at 20z, so this will need to be monitored. Also
low clouds and fog exist in the illinois valley.

Once the fog and low clouds clear out,VFR conditions will prevail
for the rest of the TAF period. Elsewhere,VFR conditions will
continue for the next 24 hours. However it's possible ceilings could
lower belowVFR at north bend if the incoming from arrives sooner.

Low level wind shear will be a concern at north bend and roseburg
this evening into Friday morning and tonight into Friday morning at
medford and klamath falls as a strong front approaches.

-petrucelli

Marine Updated 800 am pst Thursday 13 december 2018... Steep to
very steep, mainly swell driven, seas continue this morning. Winds
have already turned southeast and will increase through the day
today as a strong front approaches. Winds reach gale force tonight
and continue into Friday as the front moves through. As mentioned by
previous shifts, one model (the nam) continues to show strong
surface low pressure forming along the front and moving into our
waters mid-day Friday. This would slow the front down and produce
much stronger winds - probably storm force. The NAM is an outlier
compare to other models which show the low weaker and further north
lessening the threat of higher winds. In addition, the NAM is often
an outlier in this regard, but that does not mean it's wrong this
time. It is notable that the GFS came in with a low slightly farther
south that previous runs. The wind forecast has been adjusted toward
a compromise between these to extremes. The takeaway for mariners is
that the current forecast of gales tonight into Friday is the least
we should expect - it may be stronger. We'll keep a close eye on it.

Whatever the case turns out to be with the winds, this will be
followed quickly by a very powerful west swell, and the combination
of this swell and residual fresh swell (or wind wave, depending on
timing) will drive combined seas to as high as 25 feet by late
Friday.

The next front is expected late Saturday into Sunday, and this is
likely to be at least gales again. Guidance shows this front to be
slower than the first, and this may produce a more prolonged wind
event over the waters, which means the potential to whip up very
large wind waves. This front will be followed by a large swell, and
guidance still shows the potential for this to be one of the highest
swell events of the season. Needless to say, Sunday could feature
extremely high combined seas. Expect this active pattern to continue
well into next week, so be prepared for additional heavy swell
trains and periods of strong winds with heavy rain. -wright
prev discussion... Issued 354 am pst Thu dec 13 2018
short term...

strong winds are the main theme for the weather system arriving
Friday morning into Friday afternoon. The latest round of data
suggests the low pressure center will form farther south than
anticipated resulting in strong winds across southern oregon. This
has also prompted us to issue a high wind watch along the coast.

We will admit that all the weather model data is not in complete
agreement. Some guidance suggests the stronger winds will persist
later into the afternoon, whereas some suggests it will stop at
noon. Even with some of this inconsistency, we felt how the latest
guidance brought the low farther south warranted a high wind watch
along the coast.

The coast isn't the only area of concern. We are expecting
the shasta valley will start to see the stronger winds as early as
Thursday evening before ramping up late into Friday morning.

As for the locations east of the cascades, model guidance still
shows 700 mb winds around 70 to 80 knots. The 80 knots is more of
an outlier, but this is what we would like to see for a high wind
warning east of the cascades.

Strong winds will also impact the rogue valley near ashland. We
dont think we'll see them that strong in medford on the other
hand. We usually like to see the south east winds aloft line up
with the valley to see the stronger winds in medford.

Aside from the wind concerns, we are expecting rain and snow with
this strong cold front arriving Friday. Since this is a quick
moving cold front type system, we're only forecasting about 1
inch of rain along the coast with areas farther inland only seeing
0.25 inches to as low as 0.1 inches east of the cascades. As a
result, not much snow with this system either. Only 2-4 inches
near popular tourist destinations areas such as crater lake and
mt ashland. Snow levels will generally be hovering around 4500
feet. Therefore, siskiyou summit could see 1-2 inches if the road
surfaces remain cold.

After this deep trough moves through, we'll have to watch out for
more weather headlines around Sunday as the next low moves in.

Read the long term discussion issued yesterday for more
information on that system.

-smith
long term... Issued at 3pm Wednesday december 12th 2018

Saturday night through Wednesday
After Saturday's dry interlude another strong front will bear
down on the northwest Saturday night into Sunday morning. Saturday
night will experience mainly increasing clouds and south winds -
probably a gale force event for the waters with a low-end high
wind warning event for the south coast and some advisories
possible inland. The majority of precipitation will hold off until
Sunday as the associated upper trough splits coming into the
west, with most energy going north or south of our warning area.

So this should not be a major impact precipitation event as the
front moves through Sunday, plus snow levels will be fairly high -
around 6000 feet. Somewhat lower snow levels are expected for the
next system Monday which will probably remain somewhat benign as
well. Unlike the Sunday event, this system should allow snow to
fall 500 to a thousand feet lower and produce higher accumulations
in the cascades around crater lake.

-stavish

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory until 4 am pst Saturday for orz021-022.

High wind watch from late tonight through Friday afternoon for
orz021-022.

High wind watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
orz030-031.

Ca... High wind watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
caz085.

High wind watch from 7 pm pst this evening through Friday
afternoon for caz081.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Gale warning from 10 pm this evening to 1 pm pst Friday for
pzz350-356-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 72 mi48 min SE 1.9 G 4.1 51°F 53°F1024.1 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 83 mi42 min E 5.8 G 12 49°F 53°F1024.2 hPa (-0.7)42°F
HBYC1 - 9418767 - North Spit, CA 96 mi66 min S 8.9 G 11 51°F 53°F1024.4 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Montague Siskiyou County Airport, CA21 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair37°F28°F73%1030.2 hPa

Wind History from SIY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN5NE3CalmCalmNE3N3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3E4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3Calm
1 day agoCalmS3CalmSW5CalmCalmCalmSE5CalmCalmE33W24
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W13W4W9W8E5N3NW3E3CalmNE4N5
2 days agoN4CalmW33W4CalmCalmSE3CalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS3CalmSW3CalmSW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31)
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM PST     5.92 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:35 AM PST     3.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:01 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:50 PM PST     5.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:51 PM PST     1.01 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.84.85.65.95.85.44.84.23.93.94.14.65.25.65.75.54.83.82.81.81.211.3

Tide / Current Tables for Crescent City, California
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Crescent City
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:14 AM PST     5.95 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:35 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:37 AM PST     3.82 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 12:01 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:51 PM PST     5.73 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:46 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:52 PM PST     1.03 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 10:50 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.63.84.85.65.95.85.44.84.23.93.84.14.65.25.65.75.54.83.92.81.91.211.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.