Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 8:07 PM Moonrise 11:36 PM   Moonset 7:09 AM

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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013.thunderstorms over the waters - . Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible - .keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat - .lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414

PZZ300 853 Am Pdt Sat Apr 27 2024
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters - Gusty south winds, some showers and steep seas will accompany a front through the waters into late this afternoon, resulting in conditions hazardous to small craft. The front will move onshore and winds will shift to west and weaken this evening, but seas will remain steep. Overnight, winds will ease and seas will transition to longer period swell. Weak high pressure builds southwest of the waters Sunday, then another front will move into the waters Monday.

FXUS66 KMFR 271756 AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1056 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024

Updated AVIATION Section

DISCUSSION
RADAR imagery shows a band of very light precipitation moving across portions of Douglas, Coos and Curry County this morning. This is part of the tail end of a secondary front that will be swinging through southern Oregon this afternoon. Light precipitation in the form of showers will be possible for areas along the Coast and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide as well as for a portion of the southern Oregon Cascades.
The remainder of southern Oregon and northern California should remain dry today with may a few sprinkles here and there.
Overall, the current forecast looks reasonable with generally cooler weather expected. For more details, please read the previous discussion below. -Schaaf



AVIATION
27/18Z TAFs...A front will bring some light rain and/or showers to the coast and over to the Cascades this afternoon and evening. VFR will be the predominant condition, though ceilings/visibilities could lower to MVFR (perhaps even local IFR)
at times. Higher terrain will also be occasionally obscured.

For Medford and areas to the south and east, expected mostly VFR today. The front may cause isolated showers and brief lower ceilings. Winds will be occasionally gusty (20-25 kt) this afternoon/evening east of the Cascades, including at Klamath Falls, but strong winds are not expected.

Tonight into Sunday morning, mostly VFR will prevail, though areas of MVFR can be expected along the coast. -Spilde



MARINE
Updated 845 AM Saturday, April 27, 2024...Gusty south winds, some showers and steep seas will accompany a front through the waters into late this afternoon, resulting in conditions hazardous to small craft. The front will move onshore and winds will shift to west and weaken this evening, but seas will remain steep.

Overnight, winds will ease and seas will transition to longer period swell. Seas do remain elevated, but won't be as steep. The calmer conditions are likely to continue into Sunday, then another front will move into the waters Monday. The pattern will remain active next week, but we're not anticipating any headlines into at least the middle of next week. -Petrucelli/Spilde

PREV DISCUSSION
/Issued 639 AM PDT Sat Apr 27 2024/

DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning shows plenty of cloud cover along and west of the Cascades. Clouds east of the Cascades are more scattered and focused along the higher terrain. Radar is fairly quiet this morning, though a few showers can be noted along the Cascades and into the Douglas County Foothills. Latest observations indicate the showers are fairly light with reports only showing a hundredth or two in these locations over the last hour or so. While isolated showers are likely to continue in these locations through the early morning hours, most locations will remain dry through the morning.

After this brief lull in shower activity this morning, a shortwave arrives late this morning and afternoon, bringing another round of light precipitation. This will be a quick moving and weakening wave, but it will be the leading edge of sustained zonal onshore flow that will persist into early next week. This pattern is known to produce ongoing light showers with most precipitation remaining confined to areas along and west of the Cascades and the best chances for accumulating precipitation expected along the coast, Cascades and north of the Rogue-Umpqua Divide.

On Sunday, onshore flow will contribute to a 30-60% chance of showers north and west of the Umpqua Divide with PoPs diminishing quickly south and east of there. It looks like a mainly dry, at least partly sunny day elsewhere (including here in the Rogue Valley) with gusty breezes (25-35 mph) developing in the afternoon.
The next upper air disturbance will move through Sunday night into Monday. Once again, the main forcing for precipitation will be to our north, but there's a high probability of showers (50-70%) along the coast and over to the Cascades. Again, precip chances drop off quickly to the south and east of the mountains. We can't rule out a shower or two around the Rogue Valley/Medford area during that time period, but most of the time will be rain free. Snow levels Sunday night could dip to around 3500 feet or so, but any light snow accumulations (2-4") should be confined to the Cascade mountains from around Crater Lake northward. This system exits to the east Monday evening, followed by another upper disturbance that will swing through northern Oregon on Tuesday. Again, we'll be on the southern fringes of this system, so PoPs remain highest across the north and west, lowest across the south and east.

Overall, temperatures during this period will be near to below normal. Widespread frost/freezing conditions west of the Cascades appear unlikely at the moment, but a colder night or two is possible, especially if skies clear and remain clear all night. Best chance right now for frost is Monday night/Tue morning with the usual suspects (Illinois/Applegate Valley/Grants Pass areas) having the highest probability (30-60%). Recent guidance even shows a slight chance (15-25%) for Freeze conditions in these areas.

There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding mid-late next week. Recent deterministic guidance wants to dry things out across the area Tuesday night into Wednesday with a return of higher heights by Thu/Fri. Some multi-model members have also gone in this direction, which would potentially bring a substantial warm up late in the week. This is being reflected in recent blended guidance as well with some lowering of PoPs in the Wed-Fri time frame. However, there are still several members that fall into a cluster of solutions (~30%) that bring another upper trough into the area maintaining a cooler, wetter regime, similar to what is expected this weekend into early this week. At this point, confidence in any of these solutions is low, so we prefer to keep the official forecast closer to the NBM, which results in modest PoPs (generally 20-40%) area wide during the period with temperatures trending higher as well. -Spilde/BR-y

MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-356-370-376.

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Crescent City
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Sat -- 01:33 AM PDT     6.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:14 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:49 AM PDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:41 PM PDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:17 PM PDT     3.21 feet Low Tide
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Crescent City, California (2) (expired 1989-12-31), Tide feet

Crescent City
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Sat -- 01:34 AM PDT     6.69 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:17 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:14 AM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 08:49 AM PDT     -0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:40 PM PDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:11 PM PDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:17 PM PDT     3.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crescent City, California, Tide feet

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Medford, OR,