Warwick, RI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warwick, RI

May 7, 2024 7:40 PM EDT (23:40 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:32 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM
Moonrise 5:01 AM   Moonset 7:42 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 703 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Tonight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm after midnight.

Wed - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely, mainly in the morning. Vsby 1 nm or less.

Wed night - S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog in the evening, then patchy dense fog after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.

Thu - N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy dense fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.

Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Patchy fog in the morning.

Fri night - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat - NW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.

Sat night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sun and Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 703 Pm Edt Tue May 7 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - High pres builds over the waters tonight. A warm front lifts toward the waters into early Wed. The warm front lifts through most of the waters by late Wed. The trailing cold front slides through Thu night. The front hangs around the southern waters as we head late into the week. A few lows may ride along the front as we head into the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warwick, RI
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 072004 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 404 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front will bring a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms very late tonight and Wednesday. Chances for a few strong thunderstorms capable of producing hail in western MA/CT Wednesday afternoon. Periods of unsettled weather continue late this week into this weekend...but not expecting a washout either with extended periods of dry weather too.
Overall...temperatures will average below normal late this week into the weekend. Milder/Seasonable temperatures should return early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
350 PM Update:

Chamber-of-commerce weather conditions underway across Southern New England with high pressure dominating, with wall- to-wall sunshine and temps into the 70s, and a few locations were pushing 80 degrees in the CT Valley. Sea breezes near both coasts were supporting cooler temps in the 60s. Though it is mostly clear, satellite shows marine stratus in the waters south of Nantucket, which will likely play a role on weather conditions tonight along the south coast. Well to our west over the OH Valley is a warm front which moves into western New England toward early Wed AM.

Clear skies to prevail for most areas at least through overnight.
However we're expecting the area of stratus to expand a bit in spatial coverage over the southern waters first, then expand a little bit landward into southeast New England. Fog and stratus could spread into coastal areas as soon as sundown but think late- evening/midnight is more likely as the PBL cools off. This fog/stratus layer then gradually expands northward up toward a PVD- PYM line but likely no further. Toward daybreak, will see a general west to east increase in clouds with showers developing over interior western MA/CT by early morning. Lows mainly in the lower to mid 50s, but with upper 40s along the south coast, Cape and Islands.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
350 PM Update:

Wednesday:

Key Points...

* Overcast with warm frontal showers spreading eastward during the morning to early afternoon hrs. Low chance of a rumble of thunder with this activity.

* Better chance at a few strong t-storms later in afternoon (as soon as 2 PM, but more probable ~ 4-7 PM) from Worcester/NW RI westward into western MA/CT. Hail possible in the strongest of storms, which could reach up to 1 inch in diameter.

Warm front then spreads showers eastward across the remainder of Southern New England during the morning hours, with continuing/residual showers around in eastern MA into the early afternoon. There is a modest decrease in Showalter indices to around 0 with this morning round of showers, and though I can't rule out a rumble of thunder with the morning warm frontal showers, in many cases it would be the exception vs the rule. This will lock in cloud cover and lead to cooler temperatures with little optimism for breaks in the cloud cover. With overcast here, expect highs to reach into the mid 50s to lower/mid 60s.

For the mid to late afternoon...there are indications in a majority of guidance of some breaks in the cloud cover over western and central MA, northern CT and into portions of NW RI. As that occurs, a surge in 700-500 mb lapse rates 7.0-7.5 C/km advects over the aforementioned area, with a pocket of mid 50s to around 60 degree dewpoints in the lower Hudson Valley into western MA and portions of northern CT. With effective shear magnitudes around 40-50 kt, and with a narrow zone of frontal convergence with weak low pressure tracking up the CT Valley, we should see scattered t-storms develop in the lower Hudson Valley/Berkshires, moving ESE during the late- aftn hours. MUCAPE values for the aformentioned area are progged around 1000-1200 J/kg per the HRRR, with a bullseye in max updraft progs over western and central MA, northern CT into northwest RI. It isn't clear if these storms would be surface-based here, but the steeper lapse rates aloft combined with effective shear magnitudes supporting organized updrafts could favor storms elevated above any surface stable layer/inversion. It's a setting which can yield storms capable of hail in strong storms, and per machine- learning progs from Colorado State and others, there is a lower probability that storms could produce hail satisfying severe criteria. SPC has a large portion of SNE in a Level 1 of 5/Marginal Risk for severe weather, though the best chance is for areas near and southwest of Worcester. Unless storms can become surface based, the primary convective threat would be from hailstones. Opted to include enhanced wording for small hail in thunderstorms encompassing this general area. The biggest uncertainties here are on the spatial coverage and timing of any t- storms, and if storms could become surface- based. Temps in interior MA/CT and northwest RI have a good chance at reaching into the mid 60s to lower 70s with any cloudy breaks.

Wednesday Night:

Weak low pressure initially near the Hudson Valley moves eastward early tomorrow night, with decreasing rain chances as it moves offshore. It's a pretty uncertain period though in the wake of this wave of low pressure; a number of model guidance wants to clear SNE out from cloud cover too, but with surface ridge nosing in from northern New England and light northerly winds cooling the PBL, I'm a little surprised the guidance is clearing things out to the degree it is. Pattern recognition seems to favor more cloud cover than the guidance is offering. I sided the official forecast more pessimistically, with cloud cover hanging tough and/or filling back in as the PBL cools off. Will be generally dry, but I think tomorrow night could feature a good amt of cloud cover and possible fog, too. Lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Key Points...

* Another period of showers sometime later Thu into early Fri * Seasonable high temps away from coast Thu but quite cool on Fri * Relatively cool this weekend with another period of showers by Sun * Milder/more seasonable temps return early next week

Details...

Thursday and Thursday night...

Enough subsidence behind Wednesday/s shortwave to result in mainly dry weather to start off the day on Thursday
However
another piece of shortwave energy will be approaching from the west later Thu and Thu night
So we expect more showers to arrive
but specific timing is uncertain. Right now thinking later Thu into Thu night...but this will need to be refined. High temps are tricky too...but we might have enough of a dry window during the first half of the day to allow highs to reach the 60s to perhaps near 70 in CT River Valley. It probably will be tough though to break 60 in the immediate coast with onshore flow.

Friday...

A couple waves of low pressure pass to our south on Friday. This generates an easterly flow of cool air into southern New England.
High temps will probably be held mainly in the 50s on Friday.
Thinking the main shower threat will be during the first part of the day, but perhaps trending drier for the second half of the day as the low pressure system moves east of the region.

This Weekend...

Upper trough sets up across our region this weekend. This will result in relatively cool/below normal high temps for most of the weekend along with onshore flow. Thinking is that highs will mainly be between 55 and 65...with the coolest of those readings on the immediate coast. It will also be a bit unsettled at times with the risk for some showers...but timing is uncertain and a washout is not expected. Current indications are that much of Sat may turn out dry with the better chance for some showers being sometime on Sun.

Early Next Week...

The upper trough will push east of our region early next week. This should allow for rising height fields and seasonable high temperatures.

AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

18z TAF Update:

Through 00z Wednesday: High confidence.

VFR. N winds 5-10 kt with sea breezes on the coasts lasting thru ~23-00z Wed.

Tonight: High confidence in TAF/trends, though moderate on arrival of south-coastal fog/stratus.

Mainly VFR for most, though IFR-LIFR stratus and fog develops in the waters potentially as soon as 00z but more likely after 03z, which then advances landward into Cape Cod and south- coastal RI/MA. Possible it could make it as far north as PVD.
Toward early Wed AM, lowering VFR warm frontal cloud cover moves in from west to east, but could reach MVFR levels at BAF- BDL-CEF with accompanying -SHRA 09-12z Wed. Light south winds to trend E/ENE 4-8 kt by pre-dawn Wed.

Wednesday: Moderate confidence.

MVFR-IFR expands eastward thru 14-16z with areas of SHRA; possible LLWS. We could see some breaks/scattering in western MA/CT after 18z Wed and that could lead to SCT TSRA mainly from ORH south and west. Mentioned PROB30 TSRA at BDL after 20z; any TS could be capable of lightning, brief downpours and small hail. Afternoon TS unlikely further north and east but the risk isn't zero. SE to S winds 5-10 kt, through may become variable at times in the afternoon in interior CT/MA.

Wednesday Night: Low to moderate confidence.

SHRA/TS exits into the waters early Wed night, and that could lead to a period of clearing/brief VFR. However there's potential for IFR to re-develop later in the overnight into Thurs as high pressure ridges southward from ME/NH. Light winds to trend light NE by overnight.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Sea breezes to continue through 00z, then trend light and variable early tonight/overnight. Easterly flow resumes after 09z Wed; with developing sub-VFR by Wed AM although the onset timing is still a bit unclear.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR with light north winds today, become briefly light/calm early tonight before trending SE to S overnight. Sub-VFR comes in early Wed AM although onset timing is still a bit unclear.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA, patchy FG.

Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, patchy BR.

Friday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Friday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Chance SHRA.

Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance SHRA.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Wednesday Night: High confidence.

Winds and seas below SCA thresholds through the period.

Mainly easterly winds around 10-15 kt tonight into Wednesday; winds then turn WNW to NW at similar speeds for Wednesday night.
Seas mainly 4 ft or less all waters. Fog is likely tonight over the southern waters. Periods of showers Wednesday, with possible embedded thunderstorms. Some storms could produce small hail and locally rough seas.

Outlook /Thursday through Sunday/...

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.

Thursday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Friday Night through Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High astronomical tides coupled with onshore flow may result in some splashover/very minor coastal flooding late this week.
However...wind/waves do not appear high enough to result in a significant issues.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 2 mi55 min W 6 63°F 29.6853°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 2 mi52 min SW 5.1G8 29.71
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi52 min SE 15G16 54°F29.68
PDVR1 5 mi52 min S 9.9G13 29.67
PRUR1 5 mi82 min 58°F 53°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 7 mi52 min S 13G14 29.69
PVDR1 8 mi52 min SSE 14G16 29.69
FRXM3 9 mi82 min 69°F 51°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 10 mi52 min S 6G8 29.69
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 10 mi52 min SSE 12G15 52°F29.68
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 10 mi52 min 54°F29.71
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 12 mi52 min S 8G9.9 54°F29.70
NBGM3 24 mi52 min SW 8.9G11 29.71
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi40 min SSW 5.1G5.1 52°F 29.73
44085 26 mi40 min 52°F 52°F3 ft
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi52 min 54°F29.71
NLHC3 45 mi52 min 56°F29.69
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 46 mi25 min SSE 1G1.9 57°F


Wind History for Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPVD THEODORE FRANCIS GREEN STATE,RI 5 sm49 minS 1410 smMostly Cloudy70°F52°F53%29.68
KOQU QUONSET STATE,RI 6 sm50 minSW 0910 smA Few Clouds68°F48°F49%29.70
KUUU NEWPORT STATE,RI 10 sm47 minS 0710 smClear61°F52°F72%29.70
KSFZ NORTH CENTRAL STATE,RI 19 sm44 minvar 03Clear72°F48°F43%29.68
KEWB NEW BEDFORD RGNL,MA 21 sm47 minSSE 0910 smClear64°F50°F60%29.69
KTAN TAUNTON MUNI KING FIELD,MA 22 sm48 minSE 0810 smClear70°F50°F49%29.68
Link to 5 minute data for KOQU


Wind History from OQU
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
   
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Nayatt Point
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Tue -- 01:29 AM EDT     -0.86 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:52 AM EDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:23 PM EDT     -0.79 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:41 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:14 PM EDT     6.46 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, Tide feet
12
am
-0.1
1
am
-0.8
2
am
-0.8
3
am
-0.2
4
am
0.8
5
am
2.2
6
am
3.7
7
am
4.8
8
am
5.2
9
am
4.5
10
am
3
11
am
1.3
12
pm
-0.1
1
pm
-0.7
2
pm
-0.7
3
pm
-0
4
pm
1.1
5
pm
2.6
6
pm
4.3
7
pm
5.7
8
pm
6.4
9
pm
6.1
10
pm
4.8
11
pm
2.9


Tide / Current for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Tue -- 02:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:00 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:07 AM EDT     2.56 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:33 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:05 AM EDT     -2.75 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:01 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:31 PM EDT     2.41 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:52 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 11:24 PM EDT     New Moon
Tue -- 11:26 PM EDT     -2.85 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
-2.2
1
am
-1.4
2
am
-0.5
3
am
0.4
4
am
1.3
5
am
2.1
6
am
2.5
7
am
2.2
8
am
1
9
am
-0.8
10
am
-2.2
11
am
-2.8
12
pm
-2.5
1
pm
-1.8
2
pm
-0.9
3
pm
-0
4
pm
0.9
5
pm
1.7
6
pm
2.3
7
pm
2.3
8
pm
1.4
9
pm
-0.2
10
pm
-1.9
11
pm
-2.8


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Boston, MA,





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