Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warwick, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:43PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 4:31 AM EST (09:31 UTC) Moonrise 7:42AMMoonset 5:31PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 403 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S this afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Snow likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain and snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of snow.
Thu..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 403 Am Est Tue Jan 16 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pres will push offshore today. Low pres will develop off the mid atlc coast late today, then will push across the waters tonight and Wed. Another high will build S of the waters Thu through Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warwick, RI
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location: 41.67, -71.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 160856
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
356 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure moves east from the great lakes today, then redevelops
off the mid atlantic coast before tracking across SE new england
Wednesday. This will bring the potential for several inches of snow
to the region, mainly Tuesday night into Wednesday afternoon, but a
changeover to rain is likely Wednesday across portions of rhode
island and southeast massachusetts. Mainly dry weather likely
Thursday into Sunday, with a warming trend during the weekend.

Another low pressure system may affect our region early next week
with mostly rain.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1015 pm update...

continue to see spotty freezing drizzle across portions of
plymouth and western barnstable counties at 03z, as well as some
mixed precip at kpvc. Band of light precip still skirting along
the E coast of plymouth county as seen on latest kbox 88d radar
imagery, though starting to shrink in coverage as the back edge
appears to be from W of kghg-kpym.

Due to the continuance of the freezing drizzle, have extended
the winter weather advisory for eastern plymouth county for a
few more hours. Also included barnstable county, felt it was
enough to include them for a few hours mainly across the lower
cape. Should see precip taper off by around 1 am.

Winds are slowly backing to 350-360 degrees, so should see drier
air work eastward. However, solid low level cloud deck
continues across the region, though gradually increasing across
the ct valley at 03z. Temps look to remain steady or maybe fall
a few degrees through the remainder of the night.

Previous discussion...

Tuesday...

should see cloudy skies early Tuesday morning with light north
winds. Approaching system from the west will help flip wind to a
more southerly direction by the afternoon hours. Guidance
continues to suggest more or a southwest flow aloft as WAA moves
in the region. This will help keep the region socked in with
clouds, however temperatures do warm into the low to mid 30s.

Within this warm advection pattern, snow showers will break out
across the area with some moderate lift in the snow growth
region. The Tuesday evening commute may be impacted especially
across western ma but the bulk of this system will occur Tuesday
night into Wednesday. See the short term section for more
details.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Tuesday night through Wednesday...

upper trough over the eastern usa with jet core 130-145 knots.

The trough axis maintains a progressive orientation through
midweek. The right entrance region of the jet moves near the
carolina coast Tuesday evening, which will generate cyclogenesis
along the coast. The resulting coastal low will then move up the
coast overnight and pass CAPE cod and islands Wednesday
afternoon evening.

Cross sections show some initial elevated lift early Tuesday
night, but the best and deepest lift over southern new england
runs from after midnight until midday Wednesday. This will be
the best time for accumulating snow. There are differences among
the models regarding the track of the storm center. The NAM and
gfs are slower and pass about 70 miles inside 40n 70w, while the
ggem and ECMWF are about 6 hours faster and pass directly over
cape cod. We favored the offshore track.

Qpf continues to be expected in the 0.40 to 0.75 inch range,
with snow to liquid ratios of between 12 and 15 to 1 in the
interior and 10 to 12 to 1 in much of ri and southeast ma. This
supports 6 inches or higher over much of the region, with
diminishing amounts south of a boston-hartford line due to
temperatures near freezing along with a mix or change to rain.

This brings the heaviest snow over interior southern new
england, affecting an area broader than the current watch.

We have expanded the existing winter storm watch to include
northern ct, NW ri, and norfolk suffolk counties in ma.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* cold and dry Thursday
* continued dry with a warming trend through the weekend
* another storm may bring mostly rain Monday
Wednesday night and Thursday...

coastal low over the gulf of maine Wed evening will lift into the
maritimes. Some lingering light snow eastern new eng is possible
early as sharp mid level trough swings through, otherwise drying
with gradual clearing overnight. Thursday looks dry and cold with a
mix of Sun and clouds. Somewhat breezy as well with gusty NW winds
at times. Temps in the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Friday through Sunday...

looks mainly dry though the weekend. Moderating trend begins fri
with temps recovering to near seasonable normals then a mild day sat
with temps in the 40s. Some uncertainty with temps Sun which will
depend on a possible frontal passage. ECMWF further south with
northern stream shortwave across SE canada which drives cold front
through with high pres building to the north, while
gfs ggem UKMET keep boundary to the north and mild temps. We
leaned toward milder consensus of the guidance, but will have to
monitor this trend as ECMWF would suggest some ice potential on
front end of next shot of precip late Sun night early mon.

Monday...

amplified mid level trough and cold front approaches from the west
with decent pre-frontal low level jet moving into the region. Timing
this far out is uncertain but a period of rain appears likely
sometime Mon into Mon night. One caveat is ECMWF would suggest some
mixed precip ice would be possible at the onset with cold high pres
to the ne.

Aviation 08z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ...

overnight... Moderate to high confidence in taf. Patchy -sn -fzdz
across eastern plymouth county to CAPE cod should wind down by
around 06z. Mixture of MVFR to low endVFR CIGS with lowest
conditions across eastern ma including the CAPE and the islands.

Tuesday... Moderate confidence in taf. AnyVFR will fall to MVFR
cigs through the day. Light snow showers will over spread the
region by the afternoon ESP across western ma.

Tuesday night-Wednesday... Mainly ifr lifr CIGS vsbys in snow,
with areas of heavy snow north of a bos-hfd line. Snow may mix
with or change to rain south of a marshfield-providence-westerly
line. Conditions improve toVFR in ct and western mass Wednesday
afternoon... And in ri and eastern central mass Wednesday night.

Wind gusts 25 to 30 knots around nantucket and parts of cape
cod.

Thursday...VFR. Northwest winds gust to 25 knots CAPE cod and
islands, with gusts to 20 knots elsewhere.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Should remain snow
free, but cannot rule out a few flurries during the evening
push.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible in the
evening. Breezy. Slight chance sn.

Thursday through Saturday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Overnight into Tuesday... N-ne winds overnight with gusts near
20 kts will diminish by the morning as they shift to se. Sca
has been expanded as seas will remain about 5 feet or higher.

Tuesday night... S-se winds with gusts to 25 knots. Seas 5 feet
on the outer waters. Mixed snow and rain developing. Visibility
4 to 6 nm. Small craft advisory may be needed.

Wednesday... Easterly winds with gusts 20 to 30 knots. A few
gusts to 35 knots possible southeast of nantucket. Seas 5 to 7
feet on the outer waters and possibly on the ri waters. Rain and
snow will diminish in the afternoon. Visibility 2 to 4 miles.

Small craft advisory may be needed. Low chance of a gale warning
southeast of nantucket.

Wednesday night... Winds turning from northwest at 20 to 25
knots. Seas remain at 5 to 7 feet on the outer waters. Snow
tapers off at this time. Small craft advisory may be needed.

Thursday... Northwest winds gusting to 25 knots. Seas remain 5 to
7 feet on the outer waters. Small craft advisory may be needed.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Slight chance of snow.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Saturday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Hydrology
Minor flooding continues along taunton and pawcatuck rivers
where flood warnings remain in effect. A flood warning is also
in effect for the connecticut river at hartford and middle
haddam, where ice is causing some river fluctuations.

Colder weather will persist through midweek which will limit
additional runoff, although we should see some building of snow
pack for much of region Tuesday into Wednesday.

For details on specific area rivers, including observed and
forecast river stages, please visit the advanced hydrologic
prediction service AHPS graphs on our website.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm warning from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
ctz004.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Wednesday for ctz002-003.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for
maz017>019.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
maz004>007-012>016-026.

Winter storm warning from 7 pm this evening to 3 pm est
Wednesday for maz002-003-008>011.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 9 am est Wednesday for
maz020-021.

Ri... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 1 pm est Wednesday for
riz002>004.

Winter storm warning from 1 am to 6 pm est Wednesday for
riz001.

Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 9 am est Wednesday for
riz005>007.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm est this afternoon for anz231.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm est Wednesday for anz250-
254>256.

Small craft advisory until 1 am est Wednesday for anz251.

Synopsis... Kjc
near term... Evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc evt
marine... Kjc evt
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 2 mi107 min NNE 7 23°F 1009 hPa14°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 2 mi50 min NNE 5.1 G 8 23°F 1032.9 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi44 min N 9.9 G 12 22°F 32°F1033.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 7 mi50 min N 11 G 12 23°F 31°F1033 hPa
PVDR1 8 mi44 min N 7 G 8.9 1033.5 hPa
FRXM3 9 mi44 min 23°F 15°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 10 mi50 min NE 8 G 9.9 22°F 33°F1033.2 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 10 mi50 min 23°F 34°F1033.4 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 10 mi44 min N 5.1 G 7 23°F 1032.2 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 12 mi50 min N 12 G 15 24°F 32°F1032.4 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi32 min N 15 G 16 25°F 1032.7 hPa (+0.4)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi44 min 24°F 33°F1032.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi107 min 4.1 24°F 1032 hPa22°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 45 mi44 min NNE 1 G 5.1 23°F 38°F1032.8 hPa
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 46 mi37 min N 7 G 8 24°F 1033.8 hPa16°F

Wind History for Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Last
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NE10
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1 day
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N13
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2 days
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SW14
G25
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G28
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NW10
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NW7
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G16
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G17

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi41 minN 710.00 miOvercast23°F10°F60%1033.4 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI10 mi39 minN 910.00 miOvercast23°F15°F72%1032.4 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI17 mi36 minNE 610.00 miOvercast0°F0°F%1032.2 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA20 mi39 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast23°F17°F78%1032.4 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA23 mi40 minN 610.00 miOvercast23°F15°F72%1032.7 hPa

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------N13N13N15NE15NE15NE15NE15NE14NE8
1 day agoS17
G28
SW14
G25
SW15SW14
G25
SW14
G24
------------------SW20
G30
W15
G25
NW15
G25
NW15NW15--N18N16N7--
2 days agoS7S7S7SW7S7------------------S10S10S12
G22
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G23
S13
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S14
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G26
--S24

Tide / Current Tables for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Nayatt Point
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Tue -- 12:21 AM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:18 AM EST     5.05 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:07 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:31 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:41 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:37 PM EST     4.32 feet High Tide
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-000.41.12.13.34.454.83.82.41.10.300.20.61.32.33.44.24.33.52.20.9

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:47 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:52 AM EST     2.25 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 06:39 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:03 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:32 AM EST     -2.49 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 02:49 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:40 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:14 PM EST     2.63 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 08:37 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:01 PM EST     -2.33 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.8-1.3-0.60.21.11.92.21.60.1-1.5-2.4-2.4-2-1.4-0.70.21.122.62.31.1-0.6-1.9-2.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (4,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.