Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Warwick, RI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 6:41PM Saturday September 23, 2017 2:05 PM EDT (18:05 UTC) Moonrise 9:52AMMoonset 8:50PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 116 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
This afternoon..N winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Tue night..E winds around 5 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed night..NE winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft, except 4 to 7 ft at the bay entrance. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. The remnants of jose centered about 150 miles south-southeast of nantucket will continue to weaken and slowly drift southeast today. This will keep some fog and showers over the waters this morning. High pressure will build over the waters tonight and Sunday and remain in control through midweek. Hurricane maria will slowly lift north and be located off the north carolina coast by the middle of next week. It will generate southerly swell particularly across our southern outer waters during the first half of next week. Mariners should Monitor the latest forecasts from the national hurricane center at www.nhc.noaa.gov. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warwick, RI
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location: 41.67, -71.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231618
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1218 pm edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure was building into the region this afternoon as the
low pressure remnants of jose were finally moving southeast and
away from the region. Sunny and warm conditions will prevail,
except on the CAPE and islands where clouds, gusty winds, and
rough seas will persist through mid-afternoon. High pressure
will bring unseasonably warm weather for Sunday into mid next
week. Maria is expected to pass southeast of new england late in
the week with strongest winds well offshore.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
1215 pm update...

skies had completely cleared from boston to just west of
providence and to near block island as of noon. This clearing
trend will reach plymouth to taunton to newport between 1 pm and
2 pm. Temperatures had already warmed to 80 degrees in western
ma and parts of northern ct. Still calling for highs in the mid
80s in the ct river valley and upper 70s to lower 80s
elsewhere, except upper 60s to lower 70s in southeast ma. Winds
will still be a bit gusty over the CAPE and islands but will be
diminishing with time.

Surf... Southeast swell of 4-5 feet lingers along the south and
east facing exposed coastlines late this morning. High surf and
dangerous rip currents will be a concern. Swell is expected to
slowly diminish during the afternoon.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Sunday
Tonight...

winds diminish tonight, which with clear skies will allow
temperatures to cool to dew point. We trended toward the MOS values
for min temp, which was a couple of degrees lower than the standard
guidance. Radiation fog possible in the interior, and marine
fog stratus is possible along the CAPE islands south coast.

Sunday...

high pressure over the region Sunday. Heights at 500 mb are forecast
at or above 590 dm, and 850 temps are forecast at 18-19c... The nam
shows 20c. Average september values per esrl are 578 dm for 500 mb
heights and 10c for 850 mb temperature. So Sunday will trend toward
very warm daytime temperatures. Moisture profiles show limited
moisture around 850 mb and dry air below and above, so we expect a
sunny day. Full mixing to 850 mb would support high temps around 90
or the low 90s, while mixing that falls just short would reach the
mid to upper 80s. Light winds under the high pressure will allow
daytime sea breezes, which will keep temps cooler along the
shoreline.

We will go with upper 80s and around 90. This would be either near
or at record levels. Records are included in the climate section
near the end of this discussion.

Long term Sunday night through Friday
Highlights...

* summer warmth expected to the middle of next week
* maria expected to sharply recurve out to sea southeast of new
england late next week
h85 temperatures 17c to 19c and impressive upper level ridge with
h50 heights over 5850m support high temperatures well into the 80s
across much of the region Monday and Tuesday and possibly for some
of the region into Wednesday. A few interior spots may reach 90
degrees Monday, and perhaps even again Tuesday if the ECMWF 00z. Run
verifies. Sea breezes may temper MAX temperatures a little along the
coastal plain including boston. Expansive outflow cloud shield from
maria and slowly lowering mid level heights may lower temperatures a
few degrees on Wednesday but still above normal.

Model guidance brings a risk of showers to southern new england late
Wednesday. This is likely in response to a weakening cold front
ahead of an approaching broad upper trough with a band of k indices
above 30 with the 00z operational GFS and ecmwf. This may provide
enough of a trigger for at least scattered showers. Will keep pops
around 30 percent but any showers that do develop could have
efficient rainfall given warm rain processes at work and
precipitable water values near 2 inches.

The latter part of the week features an amplifying upper level
trough over the great lakes which would appear to provide the
impetus for maria to make a sharp right turn and pass southeast of
new england. Model consensus keeps the track of maria southeast of
the benchmark and MAX winds on the east side. There may be some
moisture entrainment into the approaching upper level trough so
maria could contribute to some rain if this is not counteracted by a
band of subsidence outside of maria's circulation field. There is
some uncertainty as to how this may play out and so for now will
indicate chance pops Thursday through Friday morning. Other impacts
associated with maria will likely be high surf and dangerous rip
currents, mainly along ocean exposed south coast beaches. For
several days, maria tracks near a great circle route in our
direction and hence will likely see significant long period swells
from the S or SE propagate into our coastal waters most of next week
with the subsequent result being high surf and rip currents. The
slow speed of maria for the next several days may enhance the swell
activity during this period.

Aviation 16z Saturday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Sunday ...

this afternoon... High confidence.

1215 pm update...

skies had rapidly cleared west of a line from kbos to ksfz to
kbid as of noon. This clearing trend should work its way all
the way to CAPE cod and perhaps nantucket late this afternoon.

Ifr conditions in fog will persist for a few more hours on cape
cod and may take until evening to improve to MVFR ceilings on
nantucket. A few northerly wind gusts to 20 to 25 knots will
linger through early or mid afternoon across southeasternmost
new england.

Tonight... Moderate confidence.

Diminishing wind.VFR to start in most spots. Southeast mass and ri
will trend to ifr lifr in fog and low clouds. Areas of fog will also
develop across the interior with ifr lifr conditions.

Sunday... High confidence.

Fog burns off during the morning. Most of the day will beVFR with
light winds. Sea breezes expected along the coastlines, including
bos.

Kbos taf... Moderate confidence. Low MVFR CIGS will gradually
improve toVFR by late this morning and then clearing during mid
to late afternoon. North to northeast winds 10 to 15 knots with
a few gusts possible to 20 knots will diminish through the day.

Kbdl taf... High confidence in taf. Areas of fog may develop
06z-12z tonight, although the chance of this is stronger over
valley locations north of springfield.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Confidence... High.

Sunday night through Tuesday...VFR expected.

Tuesday night... MostlyVFR except MVFR in patchy stratus fog some
interior valleys and near the south coast.

Wednesday... GenerallyVFR except MVFR ceilings visibilities possible
in scattered late day showers and patchy late night early morning
stratus fog.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

This afternoon... With the remnants of jose well south of the
waters and moving slowly southeast, conditions will be improving
over the waters. Gusty north winds will diminish through the
afternoon, but there will be some lingering 20-25 gusts mainly
on the southern waters. Seas at 5 feet or higher on all exposed
waters early this afternoon will slowly subside, but with 5-6
foot heights lingering on the outer waters through this evening.

Fog and drizzle over southeasternmost waters through early this
afternoon, with conditions improving through by mid to late
afternoon.

A leftover 3 to 5 foot southeast swell will maintain high surf and
rip current hazards at the coastline, diminishing late in the
day.

Tonight...

fog lingers along the southern and southeast coasts in the evening,
then moves to the coastline during the night. Expect periods of poor
vsbys, especially on the waters south and east of CAPE cod. Winds
will diminish to less than 15 knots, but seas will linger at 5-6
feet on the southern outer waters.

Sunday...

high pressure building over the region will bring light wind Sunday,
with sea breezes developing at the shoreline. Poor vsbys in fog
early, but these will improve during the morning. Seas of 5-6 feet
will linger oin the southern outer waters, and may work north into
ri sound during the afternoon.

This morning
with some poor vsbys, but this will diminish
a south swell sent north from maria will start showing itself in our
southern waters Sunday, with 3-4 feet swell heights in the
afternoon.

Outlook Sunday night through Wednesday ... Confidence... High
relatively light winds are expected through the period. However,
swells from maria will likely propagate into the southern coastal
water, beginning late Sunday night or Monday. Small craft advisories
may become necessary due to rough seas for the waters south of the
ma and ri coast for the period Monday through Wednesday.

The swells from maria will likely produce another round of high surf
and dangerous rip currents.

Tides coastal flooding
Lingering high surf and additional beach erosion will still be
a concern today given high seas just offshore. These values will
continue to diminish.

Swells from maria will likely increase the surf and associated
rip current risk across our ocean-exposed south coast starting
late Sunday and continuing through the week. This will be true
even though maria may eventually recurve out to sea well
southeast of new england.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for maz007-019-
020-022>024.

Dense fog advisory until 1 pm edt this afternoon for maz022.

Ri... High surf advisory until 6 pm edt this evening for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 pm edt this afternoon for
anz232>234.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm edt this afternoon for anz231-
251.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for anz235-
237-250.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Sunday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Field wtb thompson
near term... Field
short term... Wtb
long term... Thompson
aviation... Field wtb thompson
marine... Field wtb thompson
tides coastal flooding... Wtb thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 2 mi47 min NE 8.9 G 11 71°F 1015.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 2 mi80 min NE 8.9 71°F 66°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi53 min NE 12 G 14 71°F 67°F1015.6 hPa
PRUR1 5 mi47 min 70°F 65°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 7 mi53 min NNE 9.9 G 12 71°F 66°F1015.8 hPa
PVDR1 8 mi47 min NNE 7 G 12 76°F 1015.7 hPa65°F
FRXM3 9 mi47 min 69°F 64°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 10 mi47 min NE 9.9 G 12 69°F 1015.1 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 10 mi47 min 71°F 67°F1016.5 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 10 mi47 min ENE 8.9 G 13 73°F 66°F1015.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 12 mi47 min NNE 8.9 G 14 70°F 64°F1015.4 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi65 min N 18 G 19 65°F 1015.3 hPa (+0.4)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi47 min 64°F 66°F1015.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 44 mi80 min 4.1 63°F 1015 hPa62°F
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 45 mi47 min N 5.1 G 9.9 79°F 67°F1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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NE19
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NE21
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NE17
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NE18
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NE14
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NE19
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G29

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI6 mi75 minNE 1010.00 miMostly Cloudy73°F62°F69%1015.9 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI6 mi74 minNE 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F64°F69%1016.2 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI10 mi72 minN 10 G 1610.00 miOvercast71°F66°F87%1015.4 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI17 mi69 minNNE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F64°F71%1011.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA20 mi72 minVar 58.00 miOvercast66°F64°F93%1015.5 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA23 mi73 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast69°F62°F78%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from OQU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE20
G30
NE25NE25
G35
NE20
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N25
G30
N25N25NE25--------------------N13N15--N15NE10NE10
1 day agoNE24
G34
--NE25
G35
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2 days agoN18
G28
NE25NE20
G30
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G30
--NE22
G30
NE20N15NE25----------------NE27NE23
G33
NE23
G30
NE20
G30
NE22
G32
NE23
G33
NE25
G35

Tide / Current Tables for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Nayatt Point
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Sat -- 03:42 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:41 AM EDT     5.55 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:13 PM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:40 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 11:00 PM EDT     4.83 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.92.30.90.1-00.31.12.13.34.55.45.54.73.31.80.70.30.40.81.62.53.64.54.8

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:35 AM EDT     -2.60 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:15 AM EDT     2.36 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 09:49 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:32 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Sat -- 01:57 PM EDT     -2.58 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:02 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 06:39 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:39 PM EDT     2.32 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:55 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-1.4-2.4-2.5-2-1.4-0.60.211.82.32.10.9-0.8-2.2-2.6-2.2-1.5-0.8-00.81.52.22.31.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.