Warwick, RI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Warwick, RI

May 17, 2024 3:26 AM EDT (07:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:21 AM   Sunset 8:02 PM
Moonrise 2:18 PM   Moonset 2:44 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 103 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024

Rest of tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. Areas of drizzle with a slight chance of rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Areas of drizzle in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Fri night - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sat - NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sat night through Sun night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Mon through Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 103 Am Edt Fri May 17 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Low pres S of new england will move slowly se through tonight, bringing a period of enhanced E to ene winds to the waters. High pres then builds in from atlc canada into srn new england Fri into this weekend, then should remain in place into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Warwick, RI
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 170543 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 143 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024

SYNOPSIS
Rainfall tapering off for most late this afternoon, but may not be until this evening for parts of the south coast. Patchy fog spreading into the eastern half of southern New England. Could perhaps be dense at times in a few spots. Temperatures rebound nicely on Friday after the AM fog burns off. The weekend features generally dry weather and onshore breezes, but still a good amount of cloud cover. A warming trend then develops Monday through Wednesday, and we could see a couple days of high temperatures in the low 80s over interior sections of Southern New England. After today, our next chance for rain develops late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
10 PM Update...

A last gasp of light showers has been impacting the islands over the last few hours, the greatest impact of which is persistent low stratus and a few hundredths of QPF, as low pressure continues to draw south of souther New England. Many localities away from the immediate south coast were able to break out into sunshine before sunset this evening, allowing for pretty quick radiation where winds calmed quickly. As mentioned by the previous forecaster, fog and stratus redevelopment overnight will be fueled by residual moisture and onshore flow. The question remains on if NNE/ENE will be strong enough to advect low clouds into the Boston metro area, which will be something we watch closely overnight.

Otherwise, very seasonable night expected. Many towns have already fallen back into the mid-50s. Should start to see fog form over the next few hours, with Tds in the low to mid 50s, as dewpoint depressions drop below 3F across the interior. Winds, still gusting as high as 25mph along the south coast/in RI, will delay fog formation in these locations.

Previous Update...

* Marine stratus/fog possibly dense at times spreading into central MA/RI eastward tonight.

A cutoff low will meander from south of southern New England late tonight to the southeast of our region by early Fri. Behind the cutoff a ridge slides from the Mid Atlantic/eastern Great Lakes into western New England by early Fri. Low pressure south of Long Island late today will rotate southeastward tonight, while high pressure nudges in from Upstate NY.

Main change to the forecast was slightly slow down precipitation tapering off from the low meandering offshore. Think for the MA-Pike northward things should end by this evening, but may not be until 10 PM to midnight for precip to cease for the MA-Pike southward. This will take the longest for MVY/ACK. Fortunately the heaviest precipitation is over with as the mesoscale band that set up is falling apart. This axis of precip will slide southeastward. Leaned pretty heavily on the previous ARW and current NSSL WRF as it is handling this band quite well based on observations.

The other main concern to the forecast for tonight is given the onshore flow am anticipating marine stratus/fog along with some drizzle to spread into southern New England. This has been hinted at by the past two cycles of the HRRR and several GLAMP runs. Have trended the forecast in this direction tonight for central MA/RI eastward. Not out of the question there could be some spots where the fog is dense, but not completely certain on this risk at this junction as guidance is all over the place.
Something we will need to monitor given the prolonged ENE to NE flow as it could linger into the Fri AM commute.

Cloud cover will be slow to clear for most other than portions of western MA/CT as this is closer to the high nudging its way in. Not expecting much radiational cooling and think the 50th percentile of guidance looks reasonable at this point. Lows in the low/mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
Highlights

* Any stratus/fog anticipated to erode Fri AM. Mix of sun and clouds through Fri.

* Increasing clouds Fri Night into early Sat. Could see the stratus/fog returning to portions of eastern MA.

Ridge axis over western New England early on Fri builds over southern New England and into the Gulf of ME by late in the day.
The ridge essentially remains in place as we head into Fri Night, but may flatten out a bit as a shortwave lifts across the eastern Great Lakes into northern New England. A weak high nudges into New England on Fri and Fri Night.

Dry and quiet weather anticipated on Fri with high pressure in control. Should see any of the lingering stratus/fog burning off by mid to perhaps late AM. Will still have prolonged ENE to NE winds, but think given the breaks of May sun we should warm up quite nicely. Should see 925 hPa temps of 11-15 Celsius. The result should be widespread highs in the 60s with some mid 70s across the CT River Valley. Still may struggle to hit 60 degrees for portions of the east coast given the onshore winds, but will still have roughly 15-30 kt ENE to NE LLJ at 925. Should result in a fairly well mixed boundary layer, which should keep our temps up. It will be a bit breezy into the afternoon.

Still anticipating dry and quiet weather to persist as we head into Fri Night/Sat AM. Though we will see increasing cloudiness as the ridge axis gets shunted to the south due to the shortwave lifting in. Not a whole lot of moisture to work with in the mid levels, but there is increasing low level moisture per 1000-850 hPa RH fields. Should have PWATs of 0.75 to roughly 1 inch. At this point leaning on a dry forecast, but the ECMWF does eek out some spotty showers across the interior. Think there is a better shot given prolonged ENE to NE winds that we see another round of marine stratus/fog/drizzle across eastern areas heading into Sat AM.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Key messages...

* Outside of a spot shower, mainly dry weather is expected through at least the middle of next week.

* After a slightly cooler than average weekend a big warm-up arrives for early next week with 80s possible by Tuesday.

Details...

Saturday and Sunday...

Overall a welcome trend in the forecast for the weekend over the last 24-48 hours for anyone with outdoor activities as, even though the clouds will stick around, things should be dry on the whole.
This is thanks to a ridge of high pressure which will extend SW from Nova Scotia further into SNE each day. The positioning of that high will continue to direct cool, moist NE flow into the region. Thus, Saturday should be mostly cloudy, and Sunday, while drier air does start to work in from the upper levels down for lessening clouds, will still be at least partly cloudy. Besides keeping the clouds around this wind direction also keeps temperatures below normal; highs will be coolest in eastern MA (upper 50s/low 60s) and warmest in the CT Valley (low 70s).

Next week...

A pleasant week is setting up through at least Wednesday as high pressure continues to center overhead pushing one low pressure further to our east and suppressing one to the south over the Carolina coast. Surface flow eventually veers to the SW while at the same time we'll be seeing more insolation (thanks to less clouds)
and a warming mid level airmass. 850 mb warm from +8C on Sunday to +15C on Tuesday which looks to be the hottest day of the week; expecting temps well into the upper 70s for many locations and even low 80s for places like the CT and Merrimack Valleys. EPS and GEFS ensemble guidance currently outline a 40-50% chance of temps AOA 80F on Tuesday afternoon for those locations. It's not until around Thursday that we could see this dry pattern breaking down with the arrival of our next shortwave, but confidence is low at this distance in time.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Through Today...High Confidence

Mainly VFR with some MVFR across the Cape and Islands associated with patchy rain showers. Patchy fog will result in localized IFR across the interior through 13Z this morning. VFR will prevail for much of the area after 13Z, though MVFR/marine stratus likely to stick around for the Cape and Islands all day.
E/NE flow between 5-10kt with gusts to 20kt possible along the immediate coastline.

Friday Night... Moderate Confidence

VFR, away from the Cape and Islands where MVFR persists, to start before patchy fog development drives categories down to locally IFR. Persistent E/NE flow.

Saturday... Moderate Confidence

VFR across the CT River Valley with MVFR for eastern MA RI Saturday morning falling to MVFR/IFR during the afternoon as showers develop mid day. Onshore flow will drive cigs to as low as 003ft along the coast. Winds 5 to 15kt.

KBOS TAF...Moderate Confidence

VFR today with onshore NE winds, gusting as high as 20kt for a brief period this afternoon. Patchy fog across the interior should remain clear of the terminal. MVFR develops overnight tonight as stratus and fog redevelops given onshore flow.
Showers possible by early Saturday morning.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in TAF.

Patchy fog this morning may briefly deteriorate VFR to IFR. VFR through the day before fog redevelops tonight. Light E/NE winds today, generally less than 10kt.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible.

Sunday through Tuesday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Tonight...High confidence.

Rain tapering off across the southern waters north to south for most before midnight, though the far outer southern waters may not be until daybreak. Winds ENE to NE at 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts gradually easing heading into Fri AM. Patchy to areas of stratus/fog with visibility's of 1/2 to 4 SM. Could even see some spot where fog is dense at times.

Friday... High Confidence.

Any pockets of fog burning off by mid to late Fri AM. E/ENE winds 15-20 kt with 20-25 kt gusts. Seas remain elevated across the outer waters, so the SCA remains.

Friday Night...High confidence.

Winds remain out of the NE at 10-20 kts. Could see a return of stratus/fog across the waters late. Visibilities of 1-4 SM with the lowest across the eastern waters. Seas remain elevated so have extended the SCA through the period.

Outlook /Saturday Night through Tuesday/...

Saturday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday through Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT early this morning for ANZ235-237.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ250- 254>256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 2 mi101 min E 11 55°F 29.8954°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 2 mi56 min NE 8.9G13 55°F 29.90
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi56 min NNW 12G14 54°F 56°F29.89
PDVR1 5 mi56 min N 7G11 56°F 29.8752°F
PRUR1 5 mi56 min 55°F 53°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 7 mi56 min N 13G17 56°F 29.88
PVDR1 8 mi56 min N 6G11 55°F 29.9152°F
FRXM3 9 mi56 min 55°F 53°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 10 mi56 min NE 7G8.9 55°F 29.88
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 10 mi56 min N 8G8.9 55°F 53°F29.90
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 10 mi56 min 54°F 55°F29.90
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 12 mi56 min N 8.9G12 55°F 54°F29.88
NBGM3 24 mi56 min NE 7G11 56°F 29.89
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 25 mi86 min NNE 21G23 56°F 29.85
44085 26 mi56 min 55°F 52°F5 ft
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi56 min 57°F 56°F29.85
NLHC3 45 mi56 min 57°F 62°F29.86
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 46 mi26 min NE 9.9G18 59°F


Wind History for Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPVD THEODORE FRANCIS GREEN STATE,RI 5 sm35 minNNE 0810 smOvercast55°F52°F88%29.89
KUUU NEWPORT STATE,RI 10 sm33 minNNE 0810 smOvercast54°F52°F94%29.86
KSFZ NORTH CENTRAL STATE,RI 19 sm30 minNNE 0810 smMostly Cloudy52°F52°F100%29.90
KEWB NEW BEDFORD RGNL,MA 21 sm33 minN 0410 smOvercast55°F52°F88%29.87
KTAN TAUNTON MUNI KING FIELD,MA 22 sm34 minvar 0310 smOvercast54°F50°F88%29.89
Link to 5 minute data for KOQU


Wind History from OQU
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
   
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Nayatt Point
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Fri -- 02:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:07 AM EDT     3.84 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:54 AM EDT     0.97 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:38 PM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:00 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:56 PM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Nayatt Point, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, Tide feet
12
am
1.5
1
am
2.1
2
am
2.8
3
am
3.5
4
am
3.8
5
am
3.6
6
am
2.9
7
am
2
8
am
1.4
9
am
1.1
10
am
1
11
am
1.1
12
pm
1.3
1
pm
1.9
2
pm
2.7
3
pm
3.6
4
pm
4.2
5
pm
4.2
6
pm
3.7
7
pm
2.8
8
pm
2
9
pm
1.4
10
pm
1.1
11
pm
1


Tide / Current for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Fri -- 02:34 AM EDT     1.87 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 02:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:45 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:22 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:10 AM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 11:37 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 02:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:57 PM EDT     2.17 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 05:17 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:46 PM EDT     -2.01 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
0.3
1
am
1.1
2
am
1.7
3
am
1.8
4
am
1
5
am
-0.3
6
am
-1.5
7
am
-1.9
8
am
-1.8
9
am
-1.4
10
am
-1
11
am
-0.4
12
pm
0.3
1
pm
1.1
2
pm
1.8
3
pm
2.2
4
pm
1.7
5
pm
0.4
6
pm
-1
7
pm
-1.8
8
pm
-2
9
pm
-1.8
10
pm
-1.4
11
pm
-0.9


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Boston, MA,




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