Tuesday, May21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Mentor, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:45PM Tuesday May 21, 2019 3:00 PM EDT (19:00 UTC) Moonrise 10:39PMMoonset 7:15AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:201905211415;;210100 Fzus51 Kcle 210806 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 406 Am Edt Tue May 21 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez142>147-211415- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Maumee Bay To Reno Beach Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Reno Beach To The Islands Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 406 Am Edt Tue May 21 2019
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Thursday through Saturday. The water temperature off toledo is 58 degrees, off cleveland 54 degrees and off erie 53 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Mentor, OH
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location: 41.69, -81.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 211748
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
148 pm edt Tue may 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure will build southeast across the region today. The
high will move east of the area tonight as low pressure moves
into the central plains. The low will move across lake superior
Wednesday night driving a warm front north across the ohio
valley on Wednesday. A cold front trailing the low will move
through Thursday night as the low moves through quebec. High
pressure will build east across for the end of the work week.

Near term through tonight
Light rain making its way as far east as norwalk and shelby with
the possibility of a few sprinkles as far east of i-71.

Otherwise will be largely keeping the cloud cover. Exception
will be northwest pa where afternoon Sun will shine.

Temperatures cool and lowered by a degree or two where we had
highs above 60. Previous discussion follows.

Original... Stratus was clearing from the north across the area
during the overnight. Expect these low clouds to be out of the
area before daybreak. High clouds however were trying to stream
in from the west out of convection in the central and southern
plains. These high clouds have to made much headway so far
through the overnight as they impact the building surface high.

Will have the highest cloud cover across the western half of the
area today at around 70-74% which should yield partly sunny
wording. Further east partly cloudy looks fine. Tonight the high
moves east allowing moisture to increase from the south and
west, spiraling out from low pressure in the northern plains
like a galactic spiral arm. Will side with the faster NAM which
brings the moisture into the western counties before dawn
Wednesday. Capes of 500 to 1000j kg so will have thunder in the
grids. This moisture and instability track east across the area
through the day so will continue with chance pops for
thunderstorms. Highs today below normal in the upper 50s to mid
60s. Highs Wednesday recover to the 70s most places.

Short term Wednesday through Friday night
A warm front will lift north through the area late Wednesday and
Wednesday night. Shower and thunderstorms chances will increase
during the evening into the overnight hours across the eastern half
of the area along a weak low level jet corridor supported by more
modest mid level flow. Hi-res guidance points to convective
development around after 00z as a weak mid level impulse tracks
northeast across the ohio valley. There could be a brief window of
severe thunderstorm potential at the onset of storm development,
with a modestly unstable environment of 2000 j kg MLCAPE and 40-50
kts of 0-6 km bulk shear. This would be supportive of discrete weak
supercellular structures at storm onset. The storms will initially
be rooted in the boundary layer, with a long skinny CAPE profile.

Low mid level lapse rates are marginal, however thinking a brief
period of large hail damaging winds and even an isolated tornado,
given decent hodograph and low lcls, is possible through the
evening. Convection should diminish after 06z in a rapidly
stabilizing atmosphere and a loss of appreciable forcing weakening
mid level flow.

Low pressure tracking east across the great lakes Thursday will pull
a cold front east southeast into the area by Thursday afternoon and
south of the area Thursday night. This will bring an increase in
precip potential late Thursday across the area, with high chance
pops forecasted. High pressure briefly builds across the region
Thursday night and Friday before a warm front lifts north through
the area Friday night. This will be quickly followed by another cold
front sinking south through the great lakes, with the next decent
chance of showers thunderstorms late Friday night. Temps will be
above normal through the period with highs generally in the 80s and
lows in the 60s, expect for Thursday night with low in the upper 50s
under the cooler high pressure.

Long term Saturday through Monday
An active period continues into the long term as a frontal
boundary sags south into the area Saturday and remains
stationary across the region through the weekend. This will
bring periodic shower thunderstorm chances through Monday across
the area, with high pressure building across the region briefly
Monday night into Tuesday with dry conditions expected. The
best chances for precip during the period will be Saturday night
and again Sunday night, with mid high chance pops each period.

Highs on Saturday will be in the low 80s, but will turn more
seasonable Sunday through Tuesday with the front farther south
across the area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to around 80
Sunday through Tuesday.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Mid and upper level deck of clouds to remain for the most part
through Wednesday. High pressure shifts east tonight and a warm
front will be lifting north across the terminals Wednesday.

MVFR will be possible with any showers or thunderstorms that
drift into the western terminals towards morning. An afternoon
uptick invigorated of convection is likely Wednesday afternoon.

For now have a prob30 for the extended portion of the cle taf.

Winds will be east-southeast veering south where the warm front
lifts north.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible Wednesday afternoon evening,
Thursday Thursday night, Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
Quiet conditions expected on the lake today and tonight as high
pressure builds across the region. The high will slide off to the
east coast tomorrow as a warm front lifts northeast towards the
lake, crossing the lake Wednesday night. There will be an increase
in easterly winds across the lake ahead of the front Wednesday, but
should remain in the 10 to 20 kt range. A frontal boundary will push
back south of the lake Thursday and will meander near the lake
through the weekend, with winds remaining 15 kts or less through
this period.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Tk
near term... Tk oudeman
short term... Greenawalt
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Oudeman
marine... Greenawalt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 6 mi42 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 53°F 60°F1022.4 hPa43°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 19 mi42 min NNE 7 G 8.9
45176 25 mi20 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 51°F 55°F1 ft
45169 26 mi20 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 52°F 54°F1 ft1026.4 hPa
LORO1 48 mi30 min NE 5.1 G 8 52°F

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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NE16
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G12
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH11 mi75 minN 620.00 miMostly Cloudy54°F39°F58%1022.3 hPa
Cleveland, Burke Lakefront Airport, OH22 mi67 minN 710.00 miA Few Clouds53°F41°F64%1022.4 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW14
G25
W15
G22
W13
G18
W12
G22
NW12NW9NW7NW7N9N9
G16
N7N8CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5N5N4E5N7N6
1 day agoSW15
G25
SW17
G28
SW17
G28
SW13
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W15
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SW7--S9S7
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G16
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G26
2 days agoW6SW6SW14W4NW4NE3CalmSE5S8SE7S9
G14
S9S8S8S9S8S8S13
G19
S11
G19
SW10SW12
G18
SW20
G26
S15
G29
SW17
G32

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.