Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poughkeepsie, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:35PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 3:13 PM EDT (19:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:34AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1056 Am Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Today..W winds around 5 kt, increasing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the evening, then 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon and evening, then becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less in the morning, then 1 to 2 ft. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the daytime. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 1056 Am Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure building in this morning will pass to the south this afternoon and tonight. A warm front will pass to the north Thursday night, with bermuda high pressure following Friday into Saturday. A cold front will move across Sunday into Sunday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poughkeepsie, NY
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location: 41.7, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 281729
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
129 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
An upper level disturbance will bring an isolated shower or
thunderstorm mainly north of the capital region today, as high
pressure will be ridging in from the mid atlantic region with mainly
fair and dry weather. Clouds will increase tonight, as a warm front
will approach from the ohio valley and great lakes region. The warm
front will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorm back in the
region Thursday into Thursday night. A humid and unsettled air mass
will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms going Friday into
weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 129 pm edt... Visible satellite imagery continues to show
plenty of diurnal CU over the region, especially across the
higher terrain. With plenty of cool temps in place aloft, some
of the CU has some vertical growth to them, especially over the
central adirondacks, and a few isolated showers (and one
thunderstorm) has developed over the area. Brief showers and
perhaps a rumble of thunder will continue to be possible through
the afternoon across the central eastern adirondacks and into
southern vt. Based off current radar activity over cny, cannot
even rule out a stray shower making it into the schoharie valley
or eastern catskills as well. The sbcapes mucapes are mainly
less than 500 j kg on the NAM gfs, and also based on 12z
kaly kbuf soundings, but mid-level lapse rates remain steep at
around 7c km. As a result, thunder will be possible within any
of the stronger showers that do develop. Still can not
completely rule out isolated small hail gusty winds with any
taller convective elements, but overall coverage should remain
less than recent days. The threat for precip still start to
diminish towards the evening hours.

Max temps today will still run below normal by about 5 degrees.

H850 temps will still be about 1 to 2 standard deviations below
normal based on the 00z gefs. Decent mixing coupled with west
to northwest winds of 10 to 15 mph and some gusts 20-25 mph
will allow highs to reach the mid and upper 70s in many of the
valley areas, and across the hills, with 60s to lower 70s over
the mountains. Humidity levels will be very comfortable for late
june with sfc dewpts in the 40s to lower 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Friday night
Tonight... High pressure moves off the mid atlantic coast. Low
pressure will be approaching from the upper midwest and the
western great lakes region. The mid level flow becomes flatter,
as a sfc warm front begins to lift north northeast from the oh
valley and the lower great lakes region. Temps will cool off
early with clear mostly clear conditions and light calm winds,
but mid and high clouds will quickly increase from the
south southwest after midnight. A few showers may graze the
western adirondacks towards sunrise with the leading edge of the
warm advection pcpn, otherwise it will stay dry most of the
night-time period with lows in the 50s with a few upper 40s
across the southern adirondacks eastern catskills.

Thu-thu night... The mid-level flow becomes zonal, as a warm
front will be lifting north across most of the forecast area
during this time frame. Humidity levels will be on the increase
with sfc dewpts rising into the upper 50s to lower 60s late in
the day. The latest nam GFS can ggem ECMWF are converging with
the strongest synoptic forcing due to the isentropic lift warm
advection will be north of the mohawk river valley capital
region during the day. The locations with the most persistent
showers and a slight chc of thunderstorms would be the southern
adirondacks lake george region southern vt. Further south only a
slight to low chc of showers was kept in the capital
region berkshires northern catskills and the mohawk valley. It
may stay dry the better part of the day further south. Several
disturbances will be moving along the warm front with the most
pronounced sfc wave moving east of georgian bay 00z fri.

The better chance of showers and thunderstorms with some
elevated instability and a W SW low-level jet of 35-40 kts will
be Thu night in the warm sector. The model guidance varies with
the potential placement of showers thunderstorms, but a short-
wave and a sfc trough in the flat mid-level flow may kick off a
few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. The showalter
stability indices lower to 0 to -3c with mucapes of 200-800
j kg on the nam. The higher values are north and west of the
capital region. Pwats surge back to 1.25-1.75" in the sticky air
mass. Some locally heavy rainfall is possible Thu night
especially from the mohawk valley north and east. SPC continues
a marginal risk for a small portion of the forecast area
including the mohawk valley, southern adirondacks and the lake
george corridor. This may be due to the potential clusters of
convection or an MCS late Thu into Thu night, if they
materialize.

Highs will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s from the mohawk
valley north and east, with upper 70s to lower and even a few
mid 80s from the capital region south and east. Lows Thu night
will be in the 60s.

Fri-fri night... The forecast area gets into a much more humid
and unstable air mass to close the week. H850 temps rise to the
+16c to almost +18c range on the gfs. Pwats from the latest gefs
increase to 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal. In the
zonal flow aloft a sfc trough or diffuse boundary may focus some
afternoon strong thunderstorms, as sbcapes increase to
1000-2000 j kg. The 0-6 km bulk or deep layer shear is only
25-30 kts, so some multi-cells or multi-cell lines may form.

Chance and likely pops were placed in the grids for Fri with
this potential boundary focusing convection. The showers and
thunderstorms will persist into the night time period. Highs
will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s over the mountains. Mid and
upper 80s will be common across many of the lower elevations and
hill towns. Warm and muggy lows are expected Friday night with
widespread 60s.

Long term Saturday through Wednesday
The period starts out on Saturday with a very warm and humid air
mass entrenched across our region. A surface cyclone is forecast to
track eastward through eastern ontario, with gfs ECMWF both
indicating a noticeably slower trend compared to yesterday's model
runs. Plenty of moisture will be in place, with GEFS continuing to
forecast anomalously high pwats of +1 to +2 stdev. Still expecting a
pre-frontal trough to trigger convection as early as late morning or
early afternoon, especially from the capital district westward.

Sbcape could reach 1500-2500 j kg, especially given sufficient
heating during the early part of the day. Deep layer shear looks to
be relatively weak, so will have to watch for pulse storms with
potential wet downbursts. Also locally heavy rainfall will be likely
with thunderstorms given the abundant deep moisture that will be in
place. Temperatures may reach the mid to upper 80s in valleys, which
combined with dewpoints near 70 will result in heat indices in the
lower to mid 90s.

The likelihood for showers and thunderstorms will continue into
Saturday night, as the surface cyclone moves into NW quebec, while
the system's cold front approaches from central ny. Thunderstorms
could linger through the evening, before instability starts to wane.

There will be continued chances for showers and thunderstorms on
Sunday, as the aforementioned cold front pushes eastward across the
region. Most of the activity should be during the morning afternoon
hours, as guidance indicating the front will be east of the area by
evening. Humidity levels will start to lower behind the cold front,
with temperatures remaining slightly above normal.

Monday looks to feature mostly dry conditions, although an isolated
shower or thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, as a potential weak
short wave trough moves across the area in the weakly cyclonic flow
regime. High pressure then is expected to build in next Monday night
into the 4th of july with seasonable temperatures and comfortable
humidity levels. A frontal boundary may start to creep towards the
region towards the evening on the 4th of july, so will mention
slight chance pops at this time.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr conditions expected through tonight with just sct-bkn cumulus
and high level cirrus clouds around this afternoon. An isolated
shower will be possible near kgfl and kalb, but chances too remote
to include in the TAF at this time.

Mid level clouds will increase late tonight ahead of a warm front
approaching from the great lakes region. Some showers may reach
kgfl kalb after 15z thu, with higher chances at kgfl.

Winds this afternoon will be westerly around 8-12 kt with some gusts
near 20 kt, especially at kalb kpsf. Winds will back into the
southwest to south tonight at 5-10 kt. On Thursday, winds will be
from the south at 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Thursday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday: high operational impact. Definite shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: high operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Tsra.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Fire weather
An upper level disturbance will bring an isolated shower or
thunderstorm mainly north of the capital region today, as high
pressure will be ridging in from the mid atlantic region with mainly
fair and dry weather. A warm front will approach from the ohio
valley and great lakes region tonight. The warm front will
bring showers and a chance of thunderstorm back in the region
Thursday into Thursday night. A humid and unsettled air mass
will keep the threat of showers and thunderstorms going Friday
into weekend.

The rh values will lower to 30 to 50 percent this afternoon, and
then recover to 75 to 100 percent tonight. The rh values will
lower to 35 to 60 percent Thursday afternoon.

The winds will increase from the west to northwest at 10 to 15
mph with some gusts to 20-25 mph today. The winds will be come
light to calm tonight, and then increase from the south to
southeast at 5 to 15 mph on Thursday.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrological problems are anticipated over the
next several days on the main stem rivers.

A brief period of mainly dry weather is expected today into
tonight with ridging briefly building in from the south.

Isolated showers or thunderstorms may produce a tenth of an inch
of rain or so over the southern adirondacks, lake george
region, and southern vermont today.

An active weather pattern sets up Thursday into the weekend
with showers and thunderstorms possible with increasing humidity
levels each day. Rainfall amounts will vary based on where any
convection occurs. The most widespread potential rainfall is
expected Thursday and Saturday. Rainfall amounts Thursday into
Thursday night may range from a quarter of an inch to an inch
with some locally higher amounts in thunderstorms. The higher
totals right now may be across the northern basins of the hsa.

Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible on
Friday with basin average rainfall of a quarter of an inch to a
half an inch with locally higher amounts. A more widespread
rainfall in terms of shower and thunderstorm coverage is
expected on Saturday. The heavy rainfall may cause some poor
drainage flooding and ponding of water in low lying areas
heading into the weekend.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Kl wasula
near term... Frugis kl wasula
short term... Wasula
long term... Jpv
aviation... Kl
fire weather... Kl wasula
hydrology... Kl wasula


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 22 mi44 min 76°F 1018 hPa57°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 54 mi44 min WNW 6 G 12 74°F 1018.7 hPa
44040 - Western Long Island Sound 55 mi59 min WNW 9.7 G 16 72°F 1 ft53°F

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY5 mi21 minW 10 G 1610.00 miFair77°F48°F36%1017.8 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY16 mi29 minW 13 G 1820.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F50°F41%1019.6 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY22 mi20 minWNW 9 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds77°F46°F35%1018.7 hPa

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SW14NW7N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5CalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW6W4SW6SW5SW8W14
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SW10SW4S3CalmCalmN4N9Calm------------SW3W566SW8SW11
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2 days agoS5--S6SW5SW7W3CalmCalmN8N5SE3CalmCalm----------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 04:43 AM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:24 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:29 PM EDT     3.45 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:38 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.61.62.53.23.73.73.42.71.80.90.2-0.2-0.10.51.52.333.43.42.92.11.40.80.3

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Wed -- 05:09 AM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:33 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:55 PM EDT     3.55 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.31.22.23.13.63.93.73.12.21.30.5-0.1-0.30.21.122.83.33.53.32.61.710.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.