Saturday, September23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Poughkeepsie, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:43AMSunset 6:51PM Saturday September 23, 2017 6:48 AM EDT (10:48 UTC) Moonrise 10:02AMMoonset 9:01PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 622 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Today..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas around 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft or less.
Tonight..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..S winds around 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 622 Am Edt Sat Sep 23 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Remnants of jose will meander and weaken to the southeast of long island into early next week, as high pressure slowly builds into the region from the west. This high slowly slides offshore towards the middle of next week as hurricane maria tracks north off of the southeastern coast of the united states. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on maria. A cold front approaches from the west late on Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Poughkeepsie, NY
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location: 41.7, -73.93     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 230948
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
548 am edt Sat sep 23 2017

Synopsis
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Post-tropical
storm jose will remain nearly stationary south of CAPE cod, and
will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts
for eastern new york and western new england. Temperatures could
reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge
strengthens overhead.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 545 am edt, quick update this morning to freshen up
temperatures and sky cover based on recent obs. Additionally, fog
remains contained to the mohawk valley region, per latest
goes-16 imagery. Details regarding todays' forecast follow...

under mostly clear skies, temperatures have dropped into the 40s
across the high terrain and into the 50s elsewhere. Even with
small dew point depression spreads, not much fog is evident on
satellite imagery early this morning. The latest goes-16
nighttime microphysics channel shows some valley fog across the
mohawk valley. Additional patchy valley fog remains possible
through, as dawn approaches.

Today will be a warm and sunny day as high pressure at the
surface and aloft strengthens overhead. Temperatures will be
well above normal, reaching the low to mid 80s. The potential
would be there for temps to reach the 90s with the strength of
this ridge, but the Sun angle and daytime heating mixing is
limited for the first full day of autumn.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Monday night
High pressure will continue to dominate our weather through
Monday night as ridging strengthens both at the surface and
aloft. Increased moisture will begin creeping into the area
overnight tonight, allowing for the potential for fog
development, especially in the river valleys. Temperatures
overnight look to only drop into the low 60s. Fog and overnight
mild temperatures are expected again Monday night.

Sunday and Monday will be very warm and muggy with record high
temperatures possible both days. The question is whether we hit
90 in some areas either day or both days. The high terrain
locations should see temperatures in the mid 80s, whereas the
valley locations could see upper 80s to lower 90s. Currently, we
are forecasting record highs of 90 degrees both days at albany.

Long term Tuesday through Friday
Above normal temperatures and dry weather will open the extended
forecast, but after the mid week temperatures transition to more
seasonable levels with increased chances of showers.

Tuesday into Wednesday... Mid and upper level ridging remains over
the forecast area with hurricane maria near or just off the east
coast. The latest 00z runs of the GFS and canadian ggem are a
little closer to the mid-atlantic coast by wed, while the 00z ecmwf
is a little slower and further offshore. The ridge does begin to
weaken and break down by the mid-week with the approaching cold
front and an upper level trough. Tuesday should be predominately
dry, and humid with sfc dewpts in the 60s. H850 temps are still 1
to 2 standard deviations above normal based on the 00z gefs. Max
temps are still expected to be 15 to 20 degrees above normal with
highs in the mid to upper 80s in the valleys, and upper 70s to lower
80s over the higher terrain. Another warm and muggy night is
expected Tue night with lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. There is
a slight chc of showers over the extreme southeast portion of the
forecast area with any low-level convergence on the outer periphery
of maria's circulation. A cold front continues to approach from the
west wed. The low-level forcing is not strong until you get closer
to the frontal axis. Isolated to scattered showers are possible
late in the day, some of which could be from the outer periphery of
maria once again, especially south and east of the capital district.

Please refer to the national hurricane center for official forecasts
on maria. It will still be humid on wed, and temps will be above
normal, but an increase in clouds will yield highs a tad lower in
the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations, except for lower to
mid 70s over the higher terrain.

Wed night into thu... Decent consensus from the medium range
deterministic and ensemble guidance that a cold front will move
across the region during this time frame with scattered showers.

Temps will also start to cool down closer to late sept normals. A
strong mid and upper level trough will set up over the great lakes
region and south-central canada with height falls translating
downstream into the northeast. The better chance of showers will be
north and west of the mid-hudson valley on thu. Strong h850 cold
advection will be occurring Thu pm with temps falling to +10c to
+15c from northwest to southeast across the region. After lows in
the 50s to lower 60s with a few upper 40s in the southern
adirondacks, expect highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s over the mtns
and northwest of the capital region, and mid and upper 70s over the
hudson river valley, capital region, southern taconics, southern
berkshires and NW ct.

Thu night into fri... Broad mid and upper cyclonic flow sets up
across the great lakes region into ny and new england. Short-wave
energy translating through the mid and upper level trough will kick
off isolated to scattered lake enhanced and upslope showers
especially north and west of the tri cities. H850 temps will be
back to reality for late sept in the +2c to +7c range across the
region with breezy northwest winds. Lows will be mainly in the 40s
to lower 50s with highs in the mid to upper 60s in the valleys with
a few 70f readings in the mid-hudson valley, and mid 50s to lower
60s over the higher terrain.

Aviation 10z Saturday through Wednesday
Post-tropical storm jose will slowly drift further south and
east of the southeast new england coast and CAPE cod today, as
high pressure builds in from the great lakes region over the
northeast today into tonight.

Kgfl kpsf may have a brief period of ifr MVFR radiative mist
between 08z-11z. A tempo group was used to address some shallow
radiative mist at kgfl in the ifr range. The low-levels are dry
which should keep it brief. Kpsf has some lowVFR stratus around
early this morning, which should dissipate, and a brief period
of MVFR mist to around 3sm is possible.VFR conditions are
expected for the late morning into afternoon with a few cumulus
in the 4-5kft agl range and a few-sct cirrus. The skies will be
mainly clear this evening.

Vfr conditions are expected the next 24-hrs at kalb kpou until
06z sun. Some stratus on the back edge of clouds swirling around
jose will be in the 3.5-4 kft agl at kpou early this morning,
but will become sct-bkn between 07z-10z with sct-bkn cirrus
persisting. For the afternoon, expect a few cumulus around with
few-sct cirrus before the skies clear for tonight.

The winds will be light and variable in direction 4 kts or less
this morning. The winds will become north to northwest at 4-8
kts this afternoon, and then become light to calm tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday night: no operational impact. No
sig wx.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra.

Fire weather
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Post-tropical
storm jose will remain nearly stationary south of CAPE cod, and
will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts
for eastern new york and western new england. Temperatures could
reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge
strengthens overhead.

Rh values will be in the 80 to 100 percent range Saturday
night and Sunday night. Rh values will drop to 40 to 60 percent
this afternoon and Sunday afternoon.

North to northeast winds will become light and variable
Saturday through Sunday.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
well into next week as high pressure dominates.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Climate
Record high temperatures will be possible Sunday and Monday.

Here is a list of the current record highs for september 24 25:
albany ny:
september 24th Sunday: 87 degrees 1961
september 25th Monday: 89 degrees 1970
daily records date back to 1874
glens falls ny:
september 24th Sunday: 86 degrees 1961
september 25th Monday: 84 degrees 2007
records date back to 1949
poughkeepsie ny:
september 24th Sunday: 91 degrees 1959
september 25th Monday: 89 degrees 1970
records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from january 1993 through july 2000.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Nas jvm
near term... Jvm
short term... Jvm
long term... Wasula
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Nas jvm
hydrology... Nas jvm
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 22 mi79 min 70°F 1016 hPa64°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 54 mi49 min NNE 7 G 9.9 69°F 71°F1014.5 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY5 mi56 minN 010.00 miFair57°F52°F83%1016.1 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY16 mi64 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy59°F53°F82%1017.6 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY22 mi55 minN 010.00 miFair55°F53°F93%1017 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4N4N9
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N5NE3CalmCalmCalmNE3N4CalmCalmW3SE4Calm
1 day agoN5N10N9N9N10N10NW64N7N8N7N7N5CalmCalmCalmN6N5NE3N3N3NE3N4NE3
2 days agoN8N10N9N8N8N9
G16
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N8N6N8N4N3N3CalmCalmN3NW3CalmN4N3N7N33

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 03:18 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:49 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 03:47 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:15 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.63.13.43.32.92.11.40.70.20.10.51.52.43.13.53.63.32.71.81.10.60.20.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Sat -- 03:44 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:44 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:15 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:13 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:01 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:41 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.42.333.43.53.22.61.710.40.10.31.12.12.93.43.73.63.12.31.40.80.30.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.