Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Highland, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 7:53PM Thursday August 17, 2017 3:28 PM EDT (19:28 UTC) Moonrise 1:36AMMoonset 4:33PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 316 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms late this evening. Chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely with chance of tstms.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers and tstms likely, mainly in the evening. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..W winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..NW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NW winds around 5 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..SW winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 316 Pm Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A warm front moves north across the area waters tonight and into Friday morning. A cold front approaches from the west Friday and moves across the waters Saturday. High pressure returns on Sunday and Monday. Another cold front will approach on Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Highland, NY
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location: 41.7, -73.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 171728
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
128 pm edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
With high pressure nearby, dry and comfortable weather is expected
today. It will turn more humid tonight thanks to a southerly flow
ahead of an approaching frontal system, which will bring widespread
showers and possible thunderstorms to the region for late tonight
into Friday. The weather will be clearing out over the weekend with
temperatures close to normal.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
As of 1245 pm edt, forecast remains on track this afternoon as a
dry and seasonable day is underway. Under plentiful sunshine,
temperatures are currently in the low to mid 70s, with dewpoints
in the 40s and low 50s. Some scattered mid to high level clouds
will be the only thing to contend with as the next low pressure
system moves into the western great lakes.

Prev disc...

as of 1000 am edt... Fog stratus has burned off leaving a thin
canopy of cirrus across the region. Experimental goes-16 data
reveals a narrow ribbon of ac across the southern catskills
which was along and ahead of the warm frontal boundary across
pa. So main update was to the sky coverage, hourly temps dewpts
and remove fog mention.

As of 635 am edt... Surface high pressure is located over
central new york and it continues to slowly slide eastward
towards our area. IR satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies
over the area, with just a few thin passing cirrus clouds
around.

Good radiational cooling this morning has allowed for a cool
morning with some patchy fog, mainly for near over bodies of
water. Some areas have fallen into the lower to mid 40s for lows
this morning, which is rather chilly for mid-august. Any fog
should dissipate within the next hour and with a sunny start to
the day, temps should quick rise this morning.

During the day today, high pressure will continue to move
across the area and shift southeast of the region. It will
continue to be dry today with just some passing cirrus clouds.

Mid and high level clouds will eventually thicken from west to
east by late this afternoon into this evening, as the next
system starts to approach from the great lakes.

Highs today will range from the mid 70s in the high terrain to
the low 80s in southern valley areas. Dewpoints will be
comfortable for august, with readings mainly in the 50s.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Saturday night
An upper level shortwave and associated surface storm will be
moving across the upper great lakes tonight and move towards
ontario and quebec for tomorrow. Although the tonight period
will start off dry across the area, clouds will be thickening
and increasing this evening and into the overnight hours.

Ahead of this system, a strong s-sw flow in the low to mid
levels will be advecting plenty of deep moisture into our
region. The southerly flow will be rather strong for august, as
both the 00z GEFS and 03z SREF suggests 850 hpa u-wind
anomalies of 2-4 std above normal for around 12z Friday. As a
result, surface dewpoints and pwats will be rising through the
night, with most areas seeing dewpoints in the low to mid 60s by
the late night hours. With strong isentropic lift in place,
some rain showers along the storm's warm front will be lifting
across southern and western areas by late tonight. These initial
showers will be light and spotty, but all areas have a chance
of seeing some rainfall by daybreak on Friday. Lows tonight will
only fall into the upper 50s to mid 60s for most locations.

On Friday morning, the surface warm front will continue to be
lifting across the area from southwest to northeast during the
morning hours. Models hint at some elevated instability with the
boundary moving across, so will allow for some thunder in the
morning hours.

Pwats will be continuing to rise and will reach in excess of two
inches over much of the area by Friday afternoon (about 2 to 3
std above normal), as our area enters into the storm's warm
sector. It still looks fairly cloudy, but a few breaks are
certainly possible, especially for southern areas. Model
soundings show some surface-based instability will be possible
and CAPE values may reach 500-1500 j kg. This will ultimately
depend on just how many breaks of Sun can occur. With strong
winds aloft, 0-6 km bulk shear values will reach 35-45 kts,
depending on the location. The 3km NAM shows some additional
showers and thunderstorms will impact the region for the
afternoon and evening hours ahead of the advancing cold front,
but doesn't really hint at any strong organization of the
storms.

Considering the strong shear and moist environment, cannot rule
out a stray strong storm, although limited instability and poor
mid level lapse rates will keep the severe threat from being
more widespread. The main threat will likely be the heavy
rainfall. Although there's enough flow to keep things moving
along, the very high pwats would be capable of producing heavy
rainfall in a short period of time. Depending on where it falls,
this could lead to some minor flooding, particularly of poor
drainage and low lying areas.

High temps on Friday look to reach into the 70s. If we do get
any breaks of sunshine, temps could get into the 80s, but this
is unlikely due to expected cloud cover.

The cold (or occluded) front should be crossing through the
area on Friday night, which will end the widespread rain from
west to east. Lows will only fall into the 60s and it will
continue to be fairly muggy overnight, despite the passing
boundary, as the much drier cooler air will remain well upstream
of the region.

On Saturday, our area will still be upstream of the advancing
upper level trough and will be situated within w-sw flow aloft.

As a result, it probably still be fairly warm and muggy. Cannot
rule out a few showers in spots (perhaps even a thunderstorm)
due to the cyclonic flow ahead of the shortwave, but these will
more scattered in coverage. Temps look to reach into the 80s for
valley areas and dewpoints still will be in the 60s.

The upper level trough will be passing over the area on Saturday
night. Still could be a shower for far northern areas, but most
spots look to stay dry with temps falling into the upper 50s to
mid 60s.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
High pressure controls the weather Sunday and Monday with warm
advection occurring later Monday and through Tuesday. It looks like
the weather for eclipse Monday should be mostly sunny. Strong upper
energy develops in eastern canada Tuesday and drops south, with an
associated cold front tracking through in the Wednesday time frame.

There could be some initial scattered shower and thunderstorm
activity Tuesday afternoon with any pre frontal surface trough. The
best chances for showers and storms would be Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Highs Sunday in the lower 80s with 70s higher terrain, warming to
the mid to upper 80s by Tuesday ahead of the cold front. The clouds,
showers and thunderstorms Wednesday will result in highs in the
upper 70s and lower 80s but lower 70s higher terrain.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
Vfr through the remainder of the afternoon hours under a canopy
of thin ci cs and some mid level ac clouds as a warm front
approaches from southwest ny state.

Clouds will lower and thicken tonight as a warm front advances
closer and after 06z some ceilings will lower to MVFR, with the
best chances for MVFR ceilings at kpou, kgfl and kpsf. Some
showers are expected as we will place a prob30 at this time.

Seems the best concentration for MVFR ifr conditions arrives
just before sunrise. There is a potential for llws to develop
too as we will evaluate upstream conditions trends including
future guidance before entering into the forecast.

Winds light variable with a light southeast to southwest flow
through the afternoon at 6 kt or less and could be variable in
direction through tonight.

Outlook...

Friday night: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Tsra.

Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Tsra.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra... Tsra.

Fire weather
With high pressure nearby, rh values will fall to 40 to 50
percent this afternoon with rather light winds. Southerly winds
will increase for tonight into tomorrow, but most areas should
seeing a wetting rainfall during that time. With a very moist
air mass in place, rh values will only fall to around 70
percent on Friday with southerly winds of 10 to 15 mph.

Hydrology
Dry weather is expected today into this evening, but a frontal
system will bring some showers and thunderstorms to the region
between late tonight and late Friday night. With dewpoints
reaching into the upper 60s to lower 70s and pwats reaching
around 2 inches, locally heavy downpours will be possible.

Based on the latest model guidance, the chance for the heaviest
rainfall is on Friday afternoon and evening, just ahead of the
approaching cold front. Although flash flooding is not
anticipated due to stronger winds aloft (which should keep heavy
rainfall moving quickly), showers thunderstorms will be capable
of producing heavy downpours within a short period of time,
which may lead to minor flooding of poor drainage, urban and low
lying areas. Main stem rivers may seem some minor rises, but no
river flooding is expected with this rainfall. Less humid air
will start to work its way into the region for late Friday
night. Total QPF amounts will be variable depending on exactly
where showers thunderstorms track. While most areas should see
at least a half inch of rain, its possible that some point locations
may see upwards of an inch or two.

Although a lingering light rain shower or two cannot be ruled
out for Saturday, drier weather should return for Sunday into
Monday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Equipment
While repairing the azimuthal gear box, radar technicians have
determined that the bull gear on kenx radar needs to be
replaced. This will require the radar to be out of service until
at least next Friday, august 25th.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis bgm jvm
short term... Frugis
long term... Nas
aviation... Bgm nas
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Frugis
equipment... Aly


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 22 mi58 min 1016 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 55 mi46 min SSE 6 G 8 75°F 75°F1016 hPa

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Poughkeepsie, Dutchess County Airport, NY6 mi35 minN 010.00 miFair80°F57°F47%1015 hPa
Newburgh / Stewart, NY15 mi43 minVar 520.00 miA Few Clouds79°F62°F58%1016.6 hPa
Montgomery, Orange County Airport, NY21 mi34 minN 010.00 miFair80°F61°F52%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from POU (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN5CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmW3W43CalmCalm
1 day agoW4SW3S53S3S3CalmSE4SE3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmCalmN6N7N86N6N8
2 days agoN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3W3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3CalmS33CalmW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York
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Poughkeepsie
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:46 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:09 AM EDT     3.07 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:50 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:32 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:37 PM EDT     3.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
21.40.90.40.30.81.62.32.93.132.51.91.20.70.30.20.61.62.63.33.63.73.4

Tide / Current Tables for Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York
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Hyde Park
Click for MapNote: Values for the Hudson River above the George Washington bridge are based upon averages for the six months May to October

Thu -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:35 AM EDT     3.16 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:16 PM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:03 PM EDT     3.80 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.41.71.10.60.30.51.22.12.73.13.12.82.21.50.90.50.20.41.22.23.13.63.83.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.