Sunrise 5:44 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 4:21 AM   Moonset 5:15 PM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1046 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Tonight - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Sun night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 3 seconds. Showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight. Mon - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers likely in the morning, then slight chance of showers with isolated tstms in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning. Mon night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers. Tue - NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers after midnight. Wed - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers.Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.Thu - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely. Thu night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1046 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A cold front slowly approaches from the west on Sunday, eventually tracking through the region Monday. The boundary likely stalls to our south Monday afternoon through Wednesday before returning as a warm front late in the week.

FXUS61 KALY 050220 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1020 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

SYNOPSIS
As a storm system approaches from the west, rain will overspread the area late tonight and continue through much of the day on Sunday, with much cooler temperatures. Clouds will break for some sun on Monday with milder temperatures returning to the region. Warm and sunny weather is expected on Tuesday before the threat for showers returns to the region for Wednesday and into the latter portion of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

UPDATE
As of 1020 PM EDT, light rain showers and overcast skies are moving into the region from the southwest, although surface dewpoint depressions greater than 10 degrees persist outside of the southern Mid-Hudson Valley and eastern Catskills; even Poughkeepsie ASOS is still reporting an 11F dewpoint depression as of 10 PM EDT. As the column saturates, light precipitation will begin to reach the ground through the overnight period and will continue for much of the day on Sunday resulting in a soaking rain for most of the region. With only minor updates made to the arrival time of rain showers overnight, the forecast remains largely on track; see previous discussion below...

.PREV DISCUSSION [0730 PM EDT]...At the surface, high pressure (around 1030 hpa) is exiting off the coast of Maine and will continue to slowly depart off to the east tonight. Meanwhile, a slow moving frontal boundary is located over the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes and it will be heading towards the area for tonight into Sunday.

Visible satellite shows a mostly cloudy sky over the region, with the most breaks for far southern areas. Skies will continue to be mostly cloudy through the evening with some occasional breaks, but sky cover will start to lower and thicken for tonight as the storm system approaches from the west.

A few light sprinkles and brief showers can be seen on radar across central New York, with a few of these already sneaking into the Adirondacks. Through the evening hours, a brief shower can't be ruled out for western areas, but most of the area will be staying dry this evening, as the best forcing continues to remain off to the west.

As the ridge axis continues to depart off to the east tonight, warm advection thanks a southerly low level jet around 30 kts will allow for a period of fairly steady rain showers to spread towards the area for the late night hours. 18z HRRR suggest this will be spreading across southern and western areas after midnight and expanding northeast across the area for the late night hours. Rainfall looks fairly light in intensity overall, but all areas will be see rainfall by daybreak, with up to a quarter inch of rainfall occurring by sunrise Sunday. Southerly winds will be starting to pick up by the late night as well, especially in the larger north-south valleys.

After another mild and comfortable day, temps will drop this evening and will continue to fall for tonight with the rain spreading into the area. Most areas will see lows in the mid to upper 40s (some spots may bottom out right around 50).

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
As the frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west, most of Sunday looks to be fairly wet and damp with periods of showers through the entire day, with the steadiest and heaviest rainfall across northern and western areas. Temps will be held down and steady due to the persistent clouds and precip, with most spots being held into the lower to middle 50s through the day.
Overall, additional precip on Sunday will be one third to two thirds of an inch of rainfall. While this won't be enough to cause any hydro issues (especially within greenup starting to occur), it still make for some wet and soggy conditions outdoors.

Although the steadiest precip will be done for Sunday evening, some showers may still linger into Sunday night as the main frontal boundary crosses the area from west to east overnight.
Otherwise, it will remain cloudy and damp with some patchy fog and temps in the upper 40s.

On Monday, clouds will eventually break for some sun by the mid to late morning hours. A stray shower or sprinkle is still possible for some high terrain or eastern areas, but most spots should be dry on Monday. Temps will be mild once again, especially once the sun returns by Monday afternoon, when temps should reach back into the 70s for valley areas. Quiet weather will continue into Monday night, with skies becoming mainly clear and lows falling into the 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
The long term period will begin will high pressure and upper level ridging close to the area on Tuesday. This should allow for a nice day with plenty of sun and rather mild temps. Many valley areas may reach into the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday afternoon.

However, the quiet and pleasant weather will only be short lived, as the ridge will be breaking down for the middle to latter portion of the week. The first in a series of shortwaves will be moving across the area on Wednesday. Guidance suggest a wave of low pressure will be tracking over or just north of the area.
As a result, a period of showers is expected for Wednesday and some thunder will be possible as well (especially southern areas). It should still be fairly mild with temps in the 60s and 70s once again.

Behind this initial disturbance, additional storms are expected to impact the region, as an upper level trough sets up over the Northeast and disturbances rotate across the region. With more wet weather expected for Thursday through the weekend, will continue to go with chc to likely POPs each day. A few additional rumbles of thunder are possible from time to time as well, although it will depend on just how much instability is available. Temps still look close to normal, with highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the 40s to near 50 through the late week and no threat for any frost/freeze in areas where the growing season has begun.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions expected to initially prevail at all terminals, before vsbys/cigs trend downward to MVFR and possibly IFR late tonight into early Sunday morning as showers arrive.
Current cigs at 4-6 kft will slowly lower while coverage increases, reaching MVFR levels and becoming ovc by around 10Z at ALB/GFL/POU and possibly a few hours earlier, before 06Z, at PSF. Shower coverage increases from southwest to northeast, with MVFR vsbys during rain showers after 10Z Sun along the Hudson Valley, and by 12- 14Z farther east at PSF. Cigs may continue to trend downward, possibly reaching IFR levels after 15Z Sun. MVFR/IFR conditions within rain showers will then continue through the remainder of the period to 00Z Mon.

Southeast winds around 10-15 kt are expected throughout the period at all terminals. Occasional gusts of 15-20 kt are additionally possible at ALB/PSF. Late in the period, after 15Z Sun, winds will begin to shift slightly out of the south to southeast. Low-level wind shear may approach 30 kt out out of the south-southwest across the region after 12-15Z Sun, but is at this point expected to remain below thresholds.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: High Operational Impact. Breezy. Likely SHRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Poughkeepsie
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Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:26 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:06 AM EDT     3.33 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 04:48 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:42 PM EDT     3.61 feet High Tide
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Poughkeepsie, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

Hyde Park
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Sat -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:52 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:47 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:32 AM EDT     3.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:57 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:14 PM EDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:08 PM EDT     3.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hyde Park, Hudson River, New York, Tide feet

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