Sunrise 5:53 AM   Sunset 7:52 PM Moonrise 12:12 AM   Moonset 8:38 AM

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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1240 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Overnight - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: S 1 ft at 2 seconds. Chance of showers. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Showers likely in the morning. Sun night - S winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and slight chance of tstms. Mon - NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Mon night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Tue - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wave detail: E 1 ft at 2 seconds. Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers. Wed - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Wed night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Thu - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Thu night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
winds and seas may be higher in and near tstms.

ANZ300 1240 Am Edt Sun Apr 28 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A weak warm front approaches early this morning and moves north through the day. A weak trough moves through tonight, with high pressure briefly building in Monday morning. A back door cold front moves through Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A frontal system approaches from the west and moves through the area Tuesday afternoon and night. High pressure then builds in for the middle of the week before another frontal system potentially impacts the area to close out the week.

FXUS61 KALY 280308 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 1108 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024

SYNOPSIS
A warm front approaching from the southwest will bring mostly cloudy skies with some passing showers tonight through Sunday night, along with a few rumbles of thunder. The front stalls south of the region Monday, before returning back northward Monday night through Tuesday bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will vary depending on the frontal location, with unseasonable warmth on the south side of the front, and more seasonable temperatures near and north of the boundary.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 10:45 PM EDT, light showers are exiting western New England this evening with overall precipitation very light as expected with NYS mesonet observations only showing a few hundredths of rainfall thus far. The 00 UTC BUF and ALY soundings show somewhat steep mid-level lapse rates at 6.7C/km and 6C/km, respectively and guidance indicates that as the warm sector spills eastward overtop the ridge axis so will weak elevated instability. A few isolated to widely scattered showers have developed in Central NY and will likely track eastward overnight so we have maintained chance POPs over the entire forecast area. We also added slight chance thunder mention given the elevated instability and convective look to the upstream developing showers. Also some CAMs suggest a few isolated storms can spill into the region overnight. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing brief locally steady rain and lightning but no severe weather is expected.

Otherwise, cloudy skies and slightly breezy south-southeast will keep temperatures rather mild tonight in the 40s and current forecast temperatures are on track.

Previous discussion [330pm EDT]...Band of light showers associated with warm front aloft continues to slowly progress eastward across central/western NYS. Rainfall rates are generally less than 0.05 inches/hour. This initial band may tend to weaken/decrease in coverage as it tracks farther east through sunset, producing spotty light showers/sprinkles for areas mainly west of the Hudson River.

Additional showers, currently forming across western NYS are then expected to track eastward across the region later this evening and overnight. As the low level jet strengthens, these showers may tend to hold together better, moving across the region from west to east between roughly 10 PM and 3 AM tonight.
Latest CAMS suggest some weak elevated instability develops across the SW Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley after midnight, so a few rumbles of thunder will be possible, possibly extending as far east as the Capital/Saratoga region and Schoharie Valley/eastern Catskills prior to daybreak.

Gusty south/southeast winds will continue through sunset, especially at the leading edge of the rain showers, with some gusts up to 30-35 mph possible. Winds may then weaken once the boundary layer moistens from the showers.

Low temperatures mainly in the 40s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Early morning showers are expected, especially near and south of I-90, before some breaks in the clouds develop by mid to late morning. Additional showers are then expected to develop close to, or just south of the I-90 corridor during the afternoon hours. Shower coverage should remain scattered, however it is possible that multiple rounds of showers affect some of these areas. Some elevated instability will also remain for areas near and south of I-90, so will keep mention of isolated thunderstorms, with best chances across the western Mohawk Valley extending into Schoharie County and the SE Catskills.
Low confidence on Sunday high temperatures, as any areas of clouds and showers will limit warming potential, despite increasingly warm air aloft. Have sided with a slightly cooler blend of MAV/MET MOS across the region for max temps, with 65-70 for most areas except warmer across the mid Hudson Valley.
However, should there be less shower coverage, much warmer max temps are possible.

Cold front approaching from the north should bring additional scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms for Sunday night. This front should settle southward into the mid Hudson Valley/NW CT region by Monday afternoon. Mid level ridging sharpens over the region with slightly drier air aloft building overhead. This should decrease shower coverage on Monday, with only isolated coverage expected across the SE Catskills/Mohawk Valley region closer to the low level frontal boundary. Cooler air behind this front should prevent temps from warming much for areas near and especially north of I-90, with mainly 60s expected, with some possibility for 50s depending on cloud cover. Areas near and especially south of the boundary should reach the 70s, with some possibility for temps approaching 80 in the mid Hudson Valley.

Boundary should then begin shifting back northward Monday night as mid level ridge axis flattens and shifts east of the region.
This should allow for some showers/thunderstorms to move across the region, favoring areas north of I-90 later at night where overall mid level forcing appears greatest. Temperatures should fall into the mid 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Weakening cold front approaches from the west Tuesday, while retreating warm front slows down and potentially stalls across or just east of the region. Showers and a few thunderstorms should become numerous Tuesday afternoon and night. Some showers could linger into Wednesday along with low clouds as frontal boundary weakens across the region. High temps Tuesday mainly in the 60s to lower 70s, with lows Tuesday night in the mid 40s to lower 50s. Wednesday high temps should reach 65-70 in valley areas, and 60-65 across higher terrain areas, assuming some breaks of sun develop late in the day. Should clouds and any showers persist longer, cooler temps would prevail.

Models have trended slower with late week system, with stronger ridging building off the eastern seaboard. Current forecast still indicates chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through Saturday, however if front continues to slow down, coverage of showers could be much less, along with much warmer temps for Thu-Fri. Current forecast has highs in the 70s for most areas Thu-Fri, and 60s for Saturday, however much warmer max temps are possible during this period should stronger east coast ridging/slower frontal system occur.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Showers have overspread the terminals early this evening but has been light enough that VFR ceilings and visibility have been maintained at all terminals. A steadier batch of rain mainly 01 to 04 UTC will likely result in low end VFR ceilings with the steady rain ending from west to east by 05 - 07 UTC. MVFR ceilings look to develop by 04 - 09 UTC, mainly at GFL and PSF with a few isolated showers returning, mainly at ALB and PSF, during the pre-dawn hours (09 - 13 UTC) which may temporarily lead to MVFR ceilings. A dry break then ensues by 12/13 UTC through 20 UTC with MVFR ceilings gradually improving to VFR by the 15 - 17 UTC.

Additional showers (potentially a rumble of thunder) are then expected late in the TAF period, mainly 20 UTC SUN - 00 UTC MON. Did not have enough confidence to include thunderstorms but we will continue to monitor the potential.

South to southeast winds will remain sustained at 10-15KT with some gusts 20 - 25 KT through 03 - 05 UTC before winds weaken a bit, becoming sustained around 7 - 12kts. The winds increase from the south to southwest at 5-10 KT by 15 - 18 UTC and remain near 5-10kts.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact
Chance of SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Likely SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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Poughkeepsie
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Sat -- 03:06 AM EDT     3.50 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:47 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:15 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
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Sat -- 10:41 AM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
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