Monday, June26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Somerset, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:10AMSunset 8:24PM Monday June 26, 2017 6:20 PM EDT (22:20 UTC) Moonrise 8:06AMMoonset 10:35PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 331 Pm Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt this evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming W around 5 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..SW winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 331 Pm Edt Mon Jun 26 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Weak cold fronts will move into the waters Tue evening. High pres builds south of the waters Wed. A warm front will lift north through new eng Thu with gusty sw winds developing late Thu into Fri and lasting through Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Somerset, MA
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location: 41.71, -71.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 261944
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
344 pm edt Mon jun 26 2017

Synopsis
Additional upper level disturbances move across new england
early tonight and later Tuesday, bringing a few showers and
isolated thunderstorms. The greater threat will be on Tuesday.

A warming trend begins for the latter half of the week with a
return to summer heat and humidity Friday and Saturday. A warm
front may bring some showers and some thunderstorms Thursday
night, with more showers and thunderstorms possible Friday
through the weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
Scattered showers and isolated thunder will be possible through
the evening as a weak shortwave passes to our north. Stability
parameters are marginal for thunder, but enough to include a
mention. Best chance will be in areas north of the mass pike.

Convection diminishes early tonight. Expect quiet weather
overnight. Of note, the GFS develops an area of showers around
midnight between washington and philadelphia, then moves it up
through nyc into southern new england by 12z. The ECMWF and nam
show nothing, as does the SPC hrrr. The ggem shows nothing to
our south but develops a few hundredths over southern ct by 12z.

Inclination is to treat the GFS pcpn as an outlier.

Dew points in the 50s again tonight, so expect similar min
temps... 50s and lower 60s.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Sharp shortwave over the great lakes today moves through the
cyclonic flow. One part ejects across ny and northern new
england Tuesday afternoon evening, while the main portion
crosses our area late Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

We remain on the edge of the cold pool Tuesday, but close enough
to expect mid level lapse rates of 6.5 to 7c km during the
afternoon and early night. Going along with this will be totals
in the lower 50s and LI values below zero, as well as sbcape
values of 500-1000 j kg. Theta-e values show a ridge over ct
during the afternoon evening. Expect scattered showers tstms
during the afternoon and early night.

Winds aloft show some support for a few strong or damaging
storms. Winds at 850 mb will be 20-30 knots during Tuesday
afternoon, although this is forecast to move offshore by
evening. Winds at 500 mb are forecast at 50-60 knots during
Tuesday afternoon, but also move offshore by evening. Timing of
this wind and of the shower TSTM development may be the
determining factor in how strong these storms may get. The mixed
layer is expected to reach near 850 mb, where winds as noted
above will be 20 to 30 knots. Our forecast includes gusts on the
lower half of that range, but slightly higher values are
possible.

With the main shortwave moving through during Tuesday night, and
with the upper cold pool moving overhead, expect a continued
chance of showers storms Tuesday night.

If mixing reaches 850 mb it will work on temps of 8-10c, which
suggests MAX sfc temps of 75 to 80. If mixing GOES a little
higher, such as to 800 mb, then MAX sfc temps would be more
centered around 80. No change in the airmass Tuesday night
compared with tonight, so expect similar min temps.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* pleasant Wednesday with low risk of a shower
* heat and humidity return Friday thru Sunday
* thunderstorm chances increase Thursday night through Sunday
details...

Wednesday...

an area of high pressure passes to our south, and model soundings
show quite dry airmass in place with precipitable water around 0.75
inch. Models show a short wave moving thru the area, then modest mid
level ridging develops later in the day. Anticipating development of
diurnal cumulus clouds, overall partly to mostly sunny skies.

Guidance continues to show very little QPF on Wednesday. Can't rule
out a few pop-up showers during the afternoon since low level lapse
rates are steep, however for much of the area, the day should stay
dry. Highs mainly in the 70s with dew points dropping to 45-50 in
the afternoon.

Dry conditions expected Wednesday night with any isolated diurnal
showers coming to an end early. Winds aloft will begin to turn more
to the southwest by Wednesday night with warm air advection, which
should bring some increase in clouds. Overnight lows mainly upper
50s to low 60s.

Thursday...

surface high pressure slides offshore, meanwhile low pressure
tracking east thru the great lakes region pushes a warm front
northeastward across southern new england. As we end up in the warm
sector, increasing heat and humidity will occur. Increasing moisture
will result in more clouds, and the potential for showers and
thunderstorms. Highest probability for precipitation would be across
the northern half of our area, continuing with likely pops there.

Chance pops further to the south. Could see gusty winds with any
thunderstorms and or if Sun breaks out for awhile and allows good
mixing, potential gusts 25 to 30 mph or so.

With zonal flow and both 850mb isotherms and winds becoming
parallel, appears that any convection that generates across upstate
ny could track eastward into southern new england. Will continue the
chance for showers thunderstorms into Thursday night. More abundant
cloud cover coupled with high surface dew points will keep lows in
the 60s.

Friday thru Sunday...

continue to anticipate an unsettled weather pattern for this
timeframe, influenced by broad upper trough to near zonal flow, with
periodic short waves passing thru our area, and areas of surface low
pressure moving thru the flow and to our north. Southern new england
remains in the warm sector until later Sunday, with heat and
humidity. Models continue to indicate during Fri night Saturday that
a back door cold front should remain to our north. Thus the
potential for 90 degree high temps returns for both Friday and
Saturday. Chance for showers and thunderstorms each day. Difficult
to place the exact timing and location of any strong storms during
Friday and Saturday.

During Sunday models indicate a cold front pushing thru the area,
which would be a trigger additional showers and thunderstorms.

The potential for strong thunderstorms appears possible each day
during this period. One caveat to watch is the subtropical ridge. If
this ridge moves closer, it may keep portions of the area dry.

Monday...

with cold front possibly to the east, drier airmass should build
into the area. Some uncertainty here whether the day is dry or
whether a short wave can bring some diurnal showers to the area.

Will have slight chance to low chance pops.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

This evening and tonight...

vfr. Scattered to broken cumulus with bases 5000-6000 feet.

Scattered showers and isold t-storms in the interior, mainly
along north of the mass pike. Showers and tstms should diminish
during the early night.

Tuesday...

vfr. Scattered to broken cumulus with bases 5000-6000 feet.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected from midday through
the first part of Tuesday night. Showers and storms may bring
briefly lower conditions, mainly vsbys 3-5 miles in heavier
showers. Southwest winds will gust to at least 20 knots and
possibly as high as 30 knots.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Thursday... Moderate confidence. MainlyVFR. Afternoon showers
possible in the interior with showers t-storms possible all sne thu
night. Gusty SW winds to 25-30 kt developing.

Friday... Moderate confidence. Patchy early morning stratus and fog,
especially south coastal ma ri, with local MVFR. ThenVFR, except
local ifr in possible thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and
evening hours.

Saturday... Moderate confidence.VFR, except local ifr in possible
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. Also
ifr ceilings fog possible south coastal ma ri.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Winds and seas mostly below small craft advisory thresholds
through the period with SW flow. A few gusts to 20 knots
expected with potential for a few gusts to 25 knots especially
nearshore.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday... High confidence. Winds and seas below sca. Gusts to 20
kt possible nearshore waters and along southern outer coastal
waters.

Thursday... Moderate confidence. Small craft advisories will likely
be needed. Increasing and persistent SW winds with gusts around 25
kt probable, and gusts 30 kt possible, especially over nearshore
waters. Building seas may reach 5 to 7 ft over southern outer
coastal waters Thu night.

Friday... Moderate confidence. Persistent SW winds continue, with
potential gusts 25-30 kt. Seas of 5 to 7 feet may linger on the
southern outer coastal waters. Scattered thunderstorms, some with
reduced visibilities and strong gusty winds.

Saturday... Moderate confidence. SW S winds continue, with gusts 20-
25 kts. Seas 4-6 feet may linger on outer coastal waters.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb nmb
near term... Wtb
short term... Wtb
long term... Nmb
aviation... Wtb nmb
marine... Wtb nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 0 mi50 min SSW 15 G 19 73°F 1013.4 hPa
FRXM3 1 mi50 min 75°F 56°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 1 mi50 min 76°F 74°F1015.1 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 9 mi50 min SW 16 G 20 74°F 71°F1014.5 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 10 mi50 min WSW 6 G 12 74°F 1014.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 10 mi95 min SW 7 75°F 1014 hPa58°F
PVDR1 12 mi50 min SSW 13 G 21 76°F 1013.8 hPa56°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 14 mi50 min SW 9.9 G 14 78°F 69°F1013.4 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 15 mi50 min SW 14 G 20 73°F 71°F1014.7 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi50 min SSW 11 G 12 68°F 67°F1014.8 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 23 mi80 min SW 15 G 16 65°F 1015.6 hPa (-0.6)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 29 mi50 min 67°F 69°F1015.2 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 35 mi95 min 4.1 72°F 1015 hPa57°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi50 min 77°F 1012.4 hPa
44090 45 mi46 min 65°F1 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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SW17
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SW24
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi27 minSW 1210.00 miFair72°F54°F53%1014.4 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI13 mi27 minSSW 10 G 1610.00 miFair71°F55°F59%1014.8 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI14 mi29 minSSW 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F55°F50%1014.4 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA15 mi28 minSSW 9 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds75°F53°F46%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4S5SW7SW10SW6NW3CalmCalmCalm3CalmCalmW545W9W11W9
G17
W10W5
G15
S14SW10
G18
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1 day agoW11
G17
W9W5W4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5NW7W7W9W7W4W8SW10SW13S13S14SW13
G21
2 days agoSW15
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SW13SW11SW13SW9SW12SW11SW12
G18
SW5S6W4W10
G15
W8W9
G17
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G16
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G19
W12
G17

Tide / Current Tables for Fall River, Narragansett Bay, Massachusetts (sub)
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Fall River
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:06 AM EDT     -0.51 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:40 AM EDT     5.41 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:47 PM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 10:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:02 PM EDT     5.87 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.32.40.8-0.2-0.5-0.40.11.12.64.15.25.34.42.60.9-0.2-0.4-0.10.51.42.74.25.45.9

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     -3.03 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:45 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:06 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:39 AM EDT     2.65 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:06 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 01:31 PM EDT     -2.78 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:30 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 08:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:06 PM EDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:34 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 11:19 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-2.5-3-2.6-1.7-0.70.21.11.92.52.61.80.2-1.6-2.6-2.7-2.1-1.2-0.40.41.21.82.11.80.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.