Wednesday, May23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Somerset, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 8:07PM Wednesday May 23, 2018 6:50 AM EDT (10:50 UTC) Moonrise 1:57PMMoonset 2:25AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 303 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Today..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog this morning. A chance of showers this morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NE winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 303 Am Edt Wed May 23 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low clouds and fog, along with the chance of showers, perhaps even a Thunderstorm lingers this morning prior to a series of sweeping cold fronts later today. Thereafter, high pressure and light winds for late week, over the waters Thursday, southeast of the waters Friday. Warming ahead of a holiday weekend cold front with shower and Thunderstorm chances in advance. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Somerset, MA
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location: 41.71, -71.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 230756
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
356 am edt Wed may 23 2018

Synopsis
Isolated showers linger this morning, with a second shot late
today into this evening. Expect dry and warming weather Thursday
and Friday. Saturday will also be warm, just before a cold
front sweeps south across southern new england generating a few
showers and scattered thunderstorms. Although it will not be a
washout, the potential for showers will linger through the
remainder of the memorial day weekend.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
4 am update...

clearly evident within water vapor imagery, widespread rain with
embedded thunderstorms developing along the leading edge of the
mid-level trof axis and attendant vortmax. Forced ascent acting
upon some mid-level instability on the order a few hundred j kg
(noting MUCAPE per SPC mesoanalysis), early morning storms are
putting on quite a show with wake-up lightning and thunder.

Tracking, clipping the s-coast, biggest impact to block island
around 430p.

Otherwise, combination of low clouds and or fog continue to be
an issue. It's been no picnic, rather a headache in anticipating
when, where, and magnitude of fog development. Surface dewpoints
higher S W out in the ct river valley where winds are also light,
allowing for spotty lower visibility conditions. Anticipating
lower conditions with fog to creep E along the s-coast towards
morning as a weak cold front slides S e. Visibility 2 miles or
less, impacts to motorists and mariners, low beam headlights
recommended.

Today...

pleasant, dry day on tap, highs upper 70s to low 80s. Mid level trof
axis having swept through, deamplifying in advance with stout ridging
w, weak cold frontal boundary becomes diffuse. Light winds, midday
sea-breezes allowed prior to late day into evening N push associated
with clipping stout n-stream vort-lobe across SE canada N new england.

Forcing mechanism upon available moisture, daytime heating yielding
boundary layer destabilization, perhaps a spot shower or two beneath
cyclonic flow. However, got to get the right conditions. Fairly dry
while a bit of a cap around h6-7. If anything pops, it'll be brief.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight...

isolated shower activity over N E ma this evening, otherwise dry,
turning cool. H3 jet streak amplified, diving S in response to
enhanced upstream ridging, a n-stream vort-lobe and attendant colder
h85 temperatures skirt by. N surface wind response, onshore along
the coast. Drier airmass pushing across the region, lowering both
dewpoints and temperatures. Push lows down into the upper 40s for
many locations, potential impacts to sensitive vegetation.

Thursday...

high pressure in control, another pleasant day on tap. However
beneath continued influence of skirting n-stream vort-lobe cooler
airmass. Light winds overall, allowance of sea-breezes along the
coast. Mixing up to around h85, can't rule out a few W wind gusts
along the interior, especially over high terrain. Mixing drier air
as well, dewpoints falling into the 30s for interior locations.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Big picture...

upper ridge over the northeast usa de-amplifies with time by the
weekend, leaving a more zonal flow over the weekend and early next
week. A shortwave trough ejects from the western usa into this zonal
flow, eventually moving over the northeast usa early next week.

Southern stream upper trough hovers over the gulf of mexico and
brings tropical moisture to the gulf coast. The ECMWF keeps the
tropical moisture south of mason-dixon through the period, while the
gfs makes a stronger effort to move it up the east coast but then
stalls out south of long island.

Contour fields from Thursday onward remain above normal, although
not excessively so. Thermal fields are near normal Thursday, then
above normal most of the time through next Tuesday. The thermal
fields do dip close to normal Sunday and Monday especially over ne
mass. An easterly flow Sunday and Monday due to high pressure over
the maritimes suggests a cooler surface layer underneath the warm
deep layer, thus supporting the thermal indicators.

Model mass and thermal fields are in general agreement through
Saturday, then show growing differences early next week. Forecast
confidence is good through Saturday, then diminishes to low early
next week.

Concerns...

Thursday night through Saturday...

high pressure offshore provides a west-southwest surface wind, so
most places should warm up. The only air conditioning will be where
this flow is an ocean flow, such as the outer CAPE and parts of cape
ann. Mixing is forecast to reach about 825 mb each day, temps at
that level support MAX sfc temps in the mid to upper 80s. Can't
rule out a 90, especially if the mixing GOES a little deeper
than expected.

A cold front moves south Saturday. Precipitable water values build
ahead of the front with GFS values reaching 1.5 inches Saturday
afternoon evening. Model consensus shows total-totals in the upper
40s at that same time; mid level lapse rates are forecast at 6 to
6.5 c km, and lifted indices away from the south coast go sub-zero.

So the potential is there for scattered thunder along with the
showers. The front moves through early Saturday night, with winds
shifting from the northeast behind the front.

Sunday-Tuesday...

the cold front stalls just south of the region Sunday, with northern
stream high pressure building over the maritimes. This should bring
cooler temperatures Sunday and Monday, most notable in eastern mass.

With the front stalled nearby and weak disturbances moving
through the flow, a chance of showers will linger each day with
best chance along the south coast. As noted above, there remains
uncertainty with how much tropical moisture works up the coast
during the early week as well as if it reaches our area. This
event, or non-event, remains in the low confidence part of the
forecast. So we will maintain chance pops for this part of the
forecast.

Aviation 08z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Through this morning...

MVFR-lifr CIGS vsbys continue to be a hassle through 12z. Lower
conditions throughout the ct river valley, also creeping E along
the immediate s-coast ahead of a NW wind-shift. Improvement
beginning 10-12z. Widespread -ra with embedded tsra will clip
the s-coast this morning, mainly impacting bid around 8-9z. Some
tempo lower vsbys with -ra tsra.

Today...

quick interiorVFR improvement, however slower for CAPE and
islands. Light NW flow allowing sea-breezes along the coast.

Late day N wind-shift ahead of which isolated shra activity is
possible, mainly N E ma and ri.

Wednesday night...

vfr.

Thursday...

vfr. Sea-breezes along the coast.

Kbos terminal...

potential sea-breeze around midday. NW winds becoming E for a
brief period. Isolated shra possible around late afternoon into
evening. N wind shift behind shra activity into Wednesday night.

Kbdl terminal...

low CIGS overnight, likely to waver between MVFR-ifr through the
Wednesday morning push, quickly improving around 12z.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Saturday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Sunday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

A series of cold fronts later this morning and again this
evening, high pressure thereafter which will shift gradually e
into the end of the week. Low clouds, fog, visibility issues
ahead of the front with scattered showers, some thunder possible
over the S waters this morning. Clearing out, high pressure
building in, a weak pressure gradient, winds for the most part
will be light allowing near-shore sea-breezes during the day.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of
thunderstorms.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Chance of rain
showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb sipprell
marine... Wtb sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 0 mi50 min SW 8 G 9.9 57°F 1011.6 hPa (+0.0)
FRXM3 1 mi50 min 56°F 55°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 1 mi50 min 57°F1012.2 hPa (+0.0)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 9 mi50 min S 1 G 2.9 56°F 59°F1011.5 hPa (-0.7)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 10 mi50 min Calm G 0 1011.6 hPa (-0.6)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 10 mi65 min SW 2.9 55°F 1012 hPa55°F
PVDR1 12 mi50 min SSE 1.9 G 2.9 57°F 1011.9 hPa (-0.5)57°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 14 mi50 min Calm G 1 58°F1011.4 hPa (-0.5)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 15 mi50 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 56°F 56°F1012 hPa (-0.5)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi50 min SSW 4.1 G 4.1 55°F 54°F1011.5 hPa (-0.3)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 23 mi50 min S 7 G 7 54°F 1012.5 hPa (+0.0)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 29 mi50 min 54°F 56°F1012.3 hPa (+0.3)
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 35 mi65 min 1.9 55°F 1012 hPa55°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi50 min 56°F 1010.5 hPa (-0.0)
44090 45 mi50 min 54°F

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi57 minSW 38.00 miLight Rain56°F55°F100%1011.7 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI13 mi57 minN 04.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist55°F55°F100%1011.5 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI14 mi59 minWSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F55°F93%1011.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA15 mi58 minSW 310.00 miOvercast56°F54°F93%1012 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI18 mi54 minno data5.00 miFog/Mist54°F54°F100%1006.6 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalm3SW3SW7SW9S8S9SW6SW7SW9S4SW3SW3S6SW3S5S4CalmCalmCalmSW3SW5SW3
1 day agoN5N7N5N5CalmCalmSW6S9SW13SW13SW13S12SW8SW9SW6SW6SW4SW4CalmS4CalmS3S4Calm
2 days agoSW10
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SW12SW8NW5SW6SW5W4CalmCalmN3CalmCalm33N4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Fall River, Narragansett Bay, Massachusetts (sub)
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Fall River
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:32 AM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:05 AM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 04:08 PM EDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:05 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:27 PM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.72.73.84.54.53.82.61.50.80.40.30.4123.34.44.94.53.52.31.30.70.50.5

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:46 AM EDT     1.95 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 03:54 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 06:19 AM EDT     -2.35 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 10:33 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 02:14 PM EDT     2.35 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 04:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:58 PM EDT     -2.28 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 08:04 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.11.71.91.3-0.1-1.6-2.3-2.2-1.6-1-0.40.31.11.82.32.10.9-0.7-1.9-2.3-2-1.6-1-0.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.