Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Somerset, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 4:26PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 11:01 PM EST (04:01 UTC) Moonrise 1:20PMMoonset 11:26PM Illumination 46% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 956 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Thursday evening through Friday evening...
Overnight..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this evening. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Snow and sleet in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves around 3 ft. At the bay entrance, waves around 6 ft, building to 10 ft after midnight. Rain. Sleet in the evening. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 7 ft, subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. At the bay entrance, waves around 11 ft, subsiding to 8 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 3 ft. At the bay entrance, waves around 7 ft, subsiding to 5 ft after midnight.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 956 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure drifts to the maritimes Thursday. Another storm system approaches along the coast, impacting the waters late Thursday into Friday. High pressure returns for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Somerset, MA
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location: 41.71, -71.17     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 150306
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1006 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
Cold high pressure builds across northern new england tonight
yielding much colder than normal temperatures for southern new
england. The high provides dry weather most of Thursday however
snow begins to overspread ct and ri around or shortly after sunset,
as low pressure tracks up the eastern seaboard. As this low tracks
along the south coast of new england Thursday night and Friday, snow
changes to rain along and near the coast with snow to ice inland.

Behind the storm dry weather follows Friday night into Saturday. A
weak system may bring scattered snow showers Sunday night into
Monday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Patchy mid and high clouds linger over southern new england,
with signs of clearing upstream. Temperatures at 9 pm ranged
from 1 degree cooler than the hourly forecast to 4 degrees
warmer. Winds were diminishing as high pressure builds east.

Overall the forecast is on track. Depending on the amount of
radiational cooling later tonight and upstream clearing moves
in... Temps may be a few degrees less cold, or on target. Either
way, it still looks like a cold night with min temps in the
teens inland and 20s along the coast.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Friday
445 pm update...

*** winter storm watch for snow & ice inland Thu night ***
*** winter weather advisory for a wintry mix Thu night ***
*** wind advisory - strong winds Thu night Fri CAPE islands ***
synoptic overview...

anomalous cold airmass over new england tonight into Thu will set
the stage for a winter storm as a loaded southern stream system over
the gulf states induces cyclogenesis along the eastern seaboard.

Models in fairly good agreement on the large scale features
including track of mid level low and surface circulation along with
trajectory of the dry slot. As usually the case with these winter
storms there are model differences in thermal fields which is
typical at this time range.

Details...

Thursday...

mid level ridging in concert with 1034 mb high over the region
provides dry weather thu. While it will be cold with highs only in
the 30s, much less wind than today which will make tomorrow more
tolerable. However moisture from southern stream system approaches
from the southwest late in the day with snow possible overspreading
the ct and ri between 4-7 pm. The column along with surface temps
are cold enough to support snow across all of ct-ri. Strong 850 mb
jet approaching the region with lift focused in the snow growth
region may yield a descent front end dump of snow. Href indicating
30-50% probability for hourly snowfall rates approaching 1" toward
00z across ct and ri. Thus could see some impact to the late day
commute from hfd-pvd. Elsewhere snow likely holds off until after 7
pm.

Ptype snowfall potential...

anomalous cold airmass over the region this evening with dew pts in
the single digits! This 1030+ mb high over maine and new brunswick
combined with pres falls approaching from the southwest will likely
induce a coastal front to setup over eastern ma, shifting winds from
e to nne during Thu evening. This will maintain low level cold air
and support all snow for at least a few hours Thu evening. However
as the low level jet approaches, onshore flow will increase and the
coastal front will likely retreat inland first to the rt-128
corridor then i-495 corridor. This will result in the rain-snow line
moving onshore into eastern ma. Complicating the forecast is also
warm air aloft surging northward with mid levels becoming isothermal
suggesting snow mixing with sleet. However the forcing for ascent is
fairly robust during the evening (00z-06z) which may be sufficient
to cool this layer along with heavy snow melting in this layer
providing additional cooling. NAM soundings hold onto this snow
potential until about midnight or so for the greater boston area. If
this verifies looking at potential 2-4" before a change over to
sleet and finally rain. However if sleet mixes in sooner along with
coastal front moving inland quicker, a coating to 2 inches is more
likely for boston area. Just too early to say which scenario will
play out. Given the wintry mix of precipitation expected a winter
weather advisory has been issued.

For ri and southeast ma brief period of snow, heavy at times from 7
pm to 10 pm then snow changing over to sleet and finally all rain.

Snow accumulations of 1-2" possible with up to 3" possible northern
ri. A winter weather has also been issued for this area.

For ct and especially western - central ma 2-4" of snow is possible
before dry slot overspreads the area, changing snow and sleet to
freezing rain around or shortly after midnight. Concern here is for
an extended period of freezing rain drizzle into Fri morning as low
level cold air will be difficult to scour out with pres falls
tracking up the eastern seaboard. This will support good northerly
drainage flow down the ct river valley supporting freezing
rain drizzle from about midnight into Fri morning. So given the
potential for 2-4" of snow followed by significant icing decided to
go with a winter storm watch to highlight the potential for
significant winter weather. This is for all of northern ct into
western-central ma Thu evening into Fri morning.

Other contributing factors for the potential for a period of heavy
snow is strong forcing for ascent in the snow growth region (-10c to
-18c) and isothermal layers aloft.

Strong wind potential...

we hoisted a wind advisory for CAPE cod and the islands Thu night
into Fri as low level jet moves across this area. Model soundings
suggest high probability for 40+ kt ene gusts.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
Highlights...

* cooler than normal conditions persist.

* weak low pressure may bring scattered rain snow showers late
sun into mon
overview and model preferences...

zonal flow, mainly at the base of a persistent longwave trof,
develops in the wake of late week storm and attendant shortwave.

Given this is really on the elongated base of this trof, there
is a continued conduit for canadian cp air to filter into the
region through the weekend, in spite of the slight sw-ne
orientation of the mean jet aloft. The next feature to watch, is
a lobe of arctic energy rotating around a cutoff low pres near
james bay. This should enact at least modest cyclogenesis along
a stalled frontal boundary along or just S of S new england by
late Sun into mon. Whether the inland low pres, tied closely to
the vort-max to the N is able to efficiently transfer energy to
coastal low later mon. Given there is some uncertainty, thermal
profiles also retain uncertainty. These will be better resolved
with time. Otherwise, with vort-max shifting E into the middle
of next week, a return of drier but chilly weather is
anticipated, given the longwave trof remains in play. Models are
showing enough agreement with the 14.12z guidance update,
enough that a consensus blend can be used.

Details...

fri night into sat...

blustery w-nw flow continues following the low pres shifting
into the canadian maritimes. Strong cold advection coincident
with this flow. Lows mainly in the 20s with colder wind chills
fri night give way to highs mainly in the mid to upper 40s sat.

Sun...

weak w-e oriented front settles near S new england, but the
area remains entrenched beneath cold airmass and influence of
lingering inverted ridging. Therefore, will favor mainly dry
conditions through the daylight hours with temps remaining in
the low-mid 40s.

Sun night into mon...

inland low pres development, with potential coastal low
development possible. At this time, airmass looks to cool enough
in the low lvls Sun night to support predominantly sn across
the region except mainly the immediate S coast where onshore
component will draw across ssts still around +10c. Whether the
low pres develops further offshore Mon will determine whether
colder air gets locked in. At this time, consensus blend
supports a mainly wintry event and will continue with this.

Limiting factor will be qpf, as the origins of this low pres
across the conus. Therefore, looking at mainly an advisory lvl
system if that.

Into mid next week...

high pres, associated with an arctic airmass will settle across
the region into mid week. The pattern remains under influence
of the longwave trof. So, expect the dry and cooler than normal
conditions to persist.

Aviation 03z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Tonight...

vfr. Winds dissipating through 05z.

Thursday...

vfr to start but MVFR 22z-02z across ct-ri and south coast of
ma as snow overspreads this region. Snowfall hourly rates may
approach 1 inch per hour toward 00z from bdl-pvd and points
southward.

Thursday night...

MVFR to start but then lowering to ifr lifr after 03z. Snow
heavy at times 00z-03z but then changing over to rain south
coast. Snow and sleet changes over to freezing rain inland with
all rain in the coastal plain. Strong NE winds develop south
coast after 06z.

Friday...

ifr lifr in the morning with rain showers except freezing rain
possible interior. Strong NE winds early CAPE cod. Improving to
MVFR-VFR during the afternoon with wind shift to the west.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in TAF thru 00z fri. Snow may
hold off until after 00z Fri then briefly heavy until about
02z-04z. Coating upwards to 2 inches possible. Low prob of 3 to
4 inches but coating to 2 inches more likely as of now.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in TAF thru 18z thu. Snow
arrives Thu 21z-00z with hourly snowfall rates approaching 1
inch per hour possible toward 00z and thereafter until 03z
before changing to sleet and freezing rain.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night through Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible late. Slight chance
sn late.

Sunday night: mainly ifr, with areas MVFR possible. Chance sn,
chance ra.

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance ra, chance
sn.

Marine
*** NE gales likely Thu night Fri morning ***
tonight and Thursday... Light winds. High pressure builds over
the waters tonight and moves off to the maritimes during
Thursday.

Thursday night... Ne gales with vsby reduced less than a mile
initially in heavy snow then over to rain as low pressure tracks
along the south coast.

Friday... Low pres near CAPE cod exits with improving weather
during the afternoon.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

Friday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 13 ft.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain.

Hydrology
Renewed river flooding is possible across ri and eastern ma with
0.50 to 1.0 inches of rainfall possible Thu night into Fri after
a few inches of snow first. Will have to watch this closely.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are very low (below 9 ft) in boston. Thus
with this upcoming storm worse case scenario would be isolated
minor flooding possible.

Climate
Record low temps for nov 15
bos 17 in 1933
pvd 18 in 1905
bdl 17 in 1905 and 1933
orh 14 in 1933
record low MAX temps for nov 15
bos 30 in 1933
pvd 30 in 1933
bdl 30 in 1933
orh 30 in 1972 and 1996

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday
morning for ctz002>004.

Ma... Wind advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Friday for maz022>024.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm Thursday to 1 am est Friday
for maz017>021.

Winter weather advisory from 7 pm Thursday to 1 am est Friday
for maz007-013>016.

Winter storm watch from Thursday evening through Friday
morning for maz002>006-008>012-026.

Ri... Wind advisory from 1 am to 10 am est Friday for riz008.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm Thursday to 1 am est Friday
for riz001>007.

Marine... Gale warning from 10 pm Thursday to 4 pm est Friday for
anz232>235-237-254>256.

Gale warning from 7 am to 4 pm est Friday for anz230.

Gale warning from 1 am to 4 pm est Friday for anz231-250-251.

Small craft advisory from 7 pm Thursday to 7 pm est Friday for
anz236.

Synopsis... Nocera doody
near term... Wtb nocera doody
short term... Nocera
long term... Doody
aviation... Wtb nocera doody
marine... Wtb nocera doody
hydrology...

tides coastal flooding...

climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 0 mi31 min N 8.9 G 11 30°F 1035.8 hPa
FRXM3 1 mi31 min 30°F 7°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 1 mi31 min 52°F1036 hPa
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 9 mi31 min N 13 G 15 31°F 48°F1035.6 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 10 mi31 min NNE 9.9 G 14 1035.6 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 10 mi76 min NNE 13 31°F 1034 hPa12°F
PVDR1 12 mi31 min N 8.9 G 11 29°F 1035.7 hPa5°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 14 mi31 min NE 11 G 14 48°F1035.5 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 15 mi31 min N 12 G 15 51°F1035.9 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi31 min N 9.9 G 16 31°F 47°F1035.5 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 23 mi61 min N 18 G 20 31°F 1034.8 hPa (+2.3)
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 29 mi31 min 30°F 51°F1034.8 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 35 mi76 min 6 30°F 1034 hPa6°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi31 min 26°F 1035.9 hPa
44090 45 mi31 min 52°F7 ft

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA11 mi68 minN 610.00 miFair29°F6°F38%1034.7 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI13 mi68 minNNE 910.00 miFair29°F6°F38%1034.5 hPa
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI14 mi70 minN 910.00 miMostly Cloudy28°F5°F37%1035.3 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI15 mi71 minNNE 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy30°F3°F31%1034.9 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA15 mi69 minNNW 410.00 miFair29°F3°F34%1035.1 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI18 mi65 minN 810.00 miFair26°F6°F42%1029.3 hPa

Wind History from EWB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr------------------------------------------------
1 day ago------------------------------------------------
2 days ago------------------------------------------------

Tide / Current Tables for Fall River, State Pier, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Fall River
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:22 AM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:56 AM EST     0.91 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:32 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 12:44 PM EST     3.92 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:43 PM EST     0.96 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 10:25 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.53.42.71.81.10.91.11.41.82.22.73.33.83.93.42.51.61.111.11.41.622.6

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:07 AM EST     -0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:26 AM EST     -2.23 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 06:31 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:49 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 11:18 AM EST     1.73 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 12:18 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 01:22 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 03:45 PM EST     -2.29 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:25 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 07:48 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:26 PM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 11:43 PM EST     2.11 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.2-1.3-2.1-2.1-1.6-1-0.50.10.71.31.71.50.5-0.9-2-2.3-1.8-1.1-0.50.10.71.41.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.