Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Wethersfield, CT
May 7, 2024 6:29 AM EDT (10:29 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:37 AM Sunset 7:57 PM Moonrise 5:07 AM Moonset 7:47 PM |
ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 600 Am Edt Tue Mar 30 2021
Today - E winds around 5 kt, becoming S late this morning and afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tonight - S winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Wed - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Chance of showers in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers.
Thu night - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
ANZ300 344 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Synopsis for the long island and connecticut coastal waters - A slow moving frontal boundary gets to the south today before lifting back north as a warm front before stalling again through mid week. Low pressure develops to the west on Thursday and pushes a frontal boundary through by Friday. The low and its associated front should be east of the waters to begin the weekend.
FXUS61 KBOX 070802 AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 402 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry conditions today with high pressure in control. A warm front will bring a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms very late tonight and Wednesday, with a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms in western MA/CT Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled pattern continues for the end of the week into the weekend with the risk of occasional showers and cooler temperatures.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High pres in control today with subsidence and low PWATs bringing abundant sunshine. However, fog and stratus may linger into the start of the day for the Cape/Islands before clearing by late morning. A warm day in store today as 925 mb temps 16-17C support highs mid-upper 70s across much of SNE away from the coast, with a few locations in CT valley possibly reaching 80. Light NW flow in the boundary layer will allow sea breezes to develop which will keep temps in the upper 60s along the immediate coast.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Tonight...
Deamplifying upper ridge moves E from the Gt Lakes with weak shortwave energy spilling into SNE late tonight, while more potent trough and shortwave moves into the Gt Lakes. A warm front will approach SNE from the SW with low level SW flow increasing moisture transport into SNE as PWATs increase to 1-1.50" by 12z Wed.
Scattered showers may spill into western MA/CT toward daybreak in response to the moisture increase. Lows will be mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Patchy fog and stratus will redevelop over Cape/Islands but should remain confined to this area.
Wednesday...
Key points...
* Showers and a few t-storms in the morning * Low risk for a few strong to severs storms in western MA/CT during the afternoon
Deep moisture plume ahead of the warm front along with increasing elevated instability will result in a round of showers moving across SNE during the morning, with a few t-storms possible as well. Looks like a wet morning, especially interior. Dry slot quickly moves in from the west during the afternoon which should yield drying conditions, but potent shortwave will be moving into New Eng during the afternoon which will result in scattered showers and a few t- storms developing ahead of the attendant cold front. Much of the convection should be elevated but depending on location of warm front and how far north and east it gets, surface based convection is possible in a portion of SNE, especially western areas where HRRR highlighting max updrafts.
Increasing mid level winds will lead to a strongly sheared environment with 0-6km shear 50-70 kt, but instability will be a limiting factor as not expecting much sunshine. Steepening mid level lapse rates will help to generate marginal SB instability with CAPES around 500 J/kg. Best chance for a few strong to severe storms will be in western MA/CT near the warm front. CSU ML probs and SPC SREF highlight this area for a low risk for severe, and NCAR Neural Network also indicating low probs for severe. SPC has western half of SNE in a marginal risk. Severe risk will be dependent on sufficient SB instability developing which is uncertain at this time.
Temp forecast will be tricky due to the uncertainty in the location of the warm front. Best chance of temps reaching 70+ will be in western CT with 60s for rest of interior, while upper 50s more likely across eastern MA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights...
* Several disturbances will bring periods of rain Thursday through early next week.
* Timing, strength, and location of these disturbances remain highly uncertain.
After a nice start to the week weather wise, things begin to take a turn off the deep end for the remainder of the week into the weekend. An upper level trough begins to deepen on Thursday eventually becoming a closed trough and stalling out over the region through the weekend. This leaves the region under cyclonic flow sending multiple rounds of shortwave energy through the region.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain very spread out and confidence in any one model remains low for much of this time period. The first round of precipitation looks to come through sometime Thursday into Friday as a low pressure center passes nearby the region. The GFS shows a wetter and slower moving system with a stronger low to the north and a secondary low forming to the south.
The EURO is more progressive with less QPF and the primary low passing just offshore to the south. Meanwhile, the NAM and Canadian models have little to no precipitation Thursday with high pressure dipping south from Canada pushing the low well offshore to the south. Ensembles also remain very spread out which is why 24 hour probs for 0.5 inches of rain are less then 50% despite PWATS around 1.1-1.3 inches and good forcing from the upper level trough.
Confidence in the forecast drops even further into the weekend as guidance continues to struggle with placement and timing of a potent surface low ejecting out of the Carolinas before moving north.
Latest guidance now keeps this low well offshore, however, there has been little run to run consistency in this time range and will need to be monitored closely.
The area of the forecast that is more certain is that temperatures will be taking a dive off the deep end this week as the cold pool from the closed low get stuck over the region. Highs Thursday remain the most uncertain as flow becomes onshore, but timing of when onshore flow begins is a bit more uncertain. If winds hold off from turning ENE until late in the day Thursday, High temps could reach the low to mid 70s esspically over the CT River Valley. However, if winds turn ENE early in the day, highs likely remain in the mid to upper 60s, with mid 50s near the coast. Friday is looking like the coldest day of the week due to low cloud cover and onshore flow.
Highs on Friday possibly do not top 60F region wide. Surface winds turn more southerly over the weekend which will allow high temps to moderate a bit into the mid 60s.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12z...
Areas of IFR-LIFR fog over Cape/Islands, otherwise mainly VFR.
But patchy radiation fog possible in the typical locations.
Today...High confidence away from the Cape/Islands. Moderate confidence for the Cape/Islands.
VFR for most of the region. Stratus and fog Cape Cod and Islands will lift with improvement to VFR 14-16z, but timing is uncertain. ACK may only briefly break out to VFR for a few hours after 18z before stratus and fog returns toward evening.
NW wind 5-10 kt with sea breezes developing along the coast.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Stratus and fog with IFR-LIFR redeveloping over Cape/Islands, with mainly VFR elsewhere. Scattered showers moving into western MA/CT 09-12z.
Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR-IFR expanding across all SNE as showers and isolated t-storms move across the region through the morning. Decreasing coverage of showers in the afternoon, but a few t-storms may develop in the interior mid-late afternoon. S-SE wind 5-10 kt.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Sea breeze developing by 15z.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. VFR.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night through Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday...High Confidence
Winds and seas below SCA thresholds through the period. Onshore winds developing today over the nearshore waters as sea breezes develop. S-SE winds 10-15 kt Wed. Fog may reduce vsbys this morning, then showers develop Wed morning.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Thursday Night through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High astro tides this week and concern becomes late Thu into Fri with potential frontal wave tracking south of New England, generating onshore flow into eastern MA. Magnitude of potential inundation and erosion will depend on strength and timing of surface low. Too early for specifics with any certainty, but given astro tides are already over 11 ft at Boston, it will only take a 1 ft storm surge and modest wave action to yield minor inundation and erosion. Stay tuned throughout the week for updated information.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 402 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
SYNOPSIS
Warm and dry conditions today with high pressure in control. A warm front will bring a round of showers and isolated thunderstorms very late tonight and Wednesday, with a low risk for a few strong thunderstorms in western MA/CT Wednesday afternoon. Unsettled pattern continues for the end of the week into the weekend with the risk of occasional showers and cooler temperatures.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
High pres in control today with subsidence and low PWATs bringing abundant sunshine. However, fog and stratus may linger into the start of the day for the Cape/Islands before clearing by late morning. A warm day in store today as 925 mb temps 16-17C support highs mid-upper 70s across much of SNE away from the coast, with a few locations in CT valley possibly reaching 80. Light NW flow in the boundary layer will allow sea breezes to develop which will keep temps in the upper 60s along the immediate coast.
SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/
Tonight...
Deamplifying upper ridge moves E from the Gt Lakes with weak shortwave energy spilling into SNE late tonight, while more potent trough and shortwave moves into the Gt Lakes. A warm front will approach SNE from the SW with low level SW flow increasing moisture transport into SNE as PWATs increase to 1-1.50" by 12z Wed.
Scattered showers may spill into western MA/CT toward daybreak in response to the moisture increase. Lows will be mostly in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Patchy fog and stratus will redevelop over Cape/Islands but should remain confined to this area.
Wednesday...
Key points...
* Showers and a few t-storms in the morning * Low risk for a few strong to severs storms in western MA/CT during the afternoon
Deep moisture plume ahead of the warm front along with increasing elevated instability will result in a round of showers moving across SNE during the morning, with a few t-storms possible as well. Looks like a wet morning, especially interior. Dry slot quickly moves in from the west during the afternoon which should yield drying conditions, but potent shortwave will be moving into New Eng during the afternoon which will result in scattered showers and a few t- storms developing ahead of the attendant cold front. Much of the convection should be elevated but depending on location of warm front and how far north and east it gets, surface based convection is possible in a portion of SNE, especially western areas where HRRR highlighting max updrafts.
Increasing mid level winds will lead to a strongly sheared environment with 0-6km shear 50-70 kt, but instability will be a limiting factor as not expecting much sunshine. Steepening mid level lapse rates will help to generate marginal SB instability with CAPES around 500 J/kg. Best chance for a few strong to severe storms will be in western MA/CT near the warm front. CSU ML probs and SPC SREF highlight this area for a low risk for severe, and NCAR Neural Network also indicating low probs for severe. SPC has western half of SNE in a marginal risk. Severe risk will be dependent on sufficient SB instability developing which is uncertain at this time.
Temp forecast will be tricky due to the uncertainty in the location of the warm front. Best chance of temps reaching 70+ will be in western CT with 60s for rest of interior, while upper 50s more likely across eastern MA.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Highlights...
* Several disturbances will bring periods of rain Thursday through early next week.
* Timing, strength, and location of these disturbances remain highly uncertain.
After a nice start to the week weather wise, things begin to take a turn off the deep end for the remainder of the week into the weekend. An upper level trough begins to deepen on Thursday eventually becoming a closed trough and stalling out over the region through the weekend. This leaves the region under cyclonic flow sending multiple rounds of shortwave energy through the region.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain very spread out and confidence in any one model remains low for much of this time period. The first round of precipitation looks to come through sometime Thursday into Friday as a low pressure center passes nearby the region. The GFS shows a wetter and slower moving system with a stronger low to the north and a secondary low forming to the south.
The EURO is more progressive with less QPF and the primary low passing just offshore to the south. Meanwhile, the NAM and Canadian models have little to no precipitation Thursday with high pressure dipping south from Canada pushing the low well offshore to the south. Ensembles also remain very spread out which is why 24 hour probs for 0.5 inches of rain are less then 50% despite PWATS around 1.1-1.3 inches and good forcing from the upper level trough.
Confidence in the forecast drops even further into the weekend as guidance continues to struggle with placement and timing of a potent surface low ejecting out of the Carolinas before moving north.
Latest guidance now keeps this low well offshore, however, there has been little run to run consistency in this time range and will need to be monitored closely.
The area of the forecast that is more certain is that temperatures will be taking a dive off the deep end this week as the cold pool from the closed low get stuck over the region. Highs Thursday remain the most uncertain as flow becomes onshore, but timing of when onshore flow begins is a bit more uncertain. If winds hold off from turning ENE until late in the day Thursday, High temps could reach the low to mid 70s esspically over the CT River Valley. However, if winds turn ENE early in the day, highs likely remain in the mid to upper 60s, with mid 50s near the coast. Friday is looking like the coldest day of the week due to low cloud cover and onshore flow.
Highs on Friday possibly do not top 60F region wide. Surface winds turn more southerly over the weekend which will allow high temps to moderate a bit into the mid 60s.
AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through 12z...
Areas of IFR-LIFR fog over Cape/Islands, otherwise mainly VFR.
But patchy radiation fog possible in the typical locations.
Today...High confidence away from the Cape/Islands. Moderate confidence for the Cape/Islands.
VFR for most of the region. Stratus and fog Cape Cod and Islands will lift with improvement to VFR 14-16z, but timing is uncertain. ACK may only briefly break out to VFR for a few hours after 18z before stratus and fog returns toward evening.
NW wind 5-10 kt with sea breezes developing along the coast.
Tonight...Moderate confidence.
Stratus and fog with IFR-LIFR redeveloping over Cape/Islands, with mainly VFR elsewhere. Scattered showers moving into western MA/CT 09-12z.
Wednesday...Moderate confidence.
MVFR-IFR expanding across all SNE as showers and isolated t-storms move across the region through the morning. Decreasing coverage of showers in the afternoon, but a few t-storms may develop in the interior mid-late afternoon. S-SE wind 5-10 kt.
KBOS TAF...High confidence in TAF. VFR. Sea breeze developing by 15z.
KBDL TAF...High Confidence in TAF. VFR.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy.
Slight chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance RA.
Thursday Night through Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. Chance RA.
MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
Through Wednesday...High Confidence
Winds and seas below SCA thresholds through the period. Onshore winds developing today over the nearshore waters as sea breezes develop. S-SE winds 10-15 kt Wed. Fog may reduce vsbys this morning, then showers develop Wed morning.
Outlook /Wednesday Night through Saturday/...
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain.
Thursday Night through Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.
Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain.
Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
High astro tides this week and concern becomes late Thu into Fri with potential frontal wave tracking south of New England, generating onshore flow into eastern MA. Magnitude of potential inundation and erosion will depend on strength and timing of surface low. Too early for specifics with any certainty, but given astro tides are already over 11 ft at Boston, it will only take a 1 ft storm surge and modest wave action to yield minor inundation and erosion. Stay tuned throughout the week for updated information.
BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT | 33 mi | 59 min | N 6G | 60°F | 56°F | 29.81 | ||
| NLHC3 | 38 mi | 59 min | 57°F | 61°F | 29.78 | |||
| LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather | 41 mi | 29 min | N 8.9G | 59°F | ||||
| BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT | 47 mi | 59 min | N 5.1G | 58°F | 29.75 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KHFD HARTFORDBRAINARD,CT | 2 sm | 36 min | calm | 10 sm | Clear | 54°F | 48°F | 82% | 29.81 | |
| KBDL BRADLEY INTL,CT | 16 sm | 38 min | calm | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 52°F | 46°F | 82% | 29.81 | |
| KMMK MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNI,CT | 17 sm | 9 min | calm | 2 sm | Clear | Mist | 52°F | 48°F | 87% | 29.81 |
| KSNC CHESTER,CT | 24 sm | 14 min | NW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 59°F | 48°F | 67% | 29.80 |
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
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