Tuesday, June27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Wethersfield, CT

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:16AMSunset 8:30PM Tuesday June 27, 2017 10:06 PM EDT (02:06 UTC) Moonrise 9:21AMMoonset 11:21PM Illumination 16% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ330 Long Island Sound East Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 815 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Slight chance of showers and tstms early this evening.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then 2 to 3 ft in the afternoon.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of showers and tstms in the daytime. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ300 815 Pm Edt Tue Jun 27 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front was moving through the waters and will be east of the forecast waters early this evening. High pressure builds east from the ohio valley. The high passes to the south of the area Wednesday afternoon and night. Another frontal system approaches for the end of the week. A cold front approaches Saturday and moves across Sunday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wethersfield, CT
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location: 41.71, -72.65     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 280147
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
947 pm edt Tue jun 27 2017

Synopsis
A frontal passage will usher in drier air across the region
overnight. High pressure builds fair and dry weather for
Wednesday. A warming trend begins for the latter half of the
week. Expect summer heat and humidity from Friday through the
weekend. A warm front passes Thursday night, bringing scattered
showers and thunderstorms. More showers and thunderstorms are
possible from Friday through the weekend. A cold front tries to
shift toward the region early next week.

Near term until 6 am Wednesday morning
10 pm update...

convection now offshore with frontal passage wind shift back
from ore-bdl-hfd and will continue moving east ushering in drier
air across the region overnight. More of a early fall airmass
tonight with lows in the upper 40s across northwest ma with 50s
elsewhere.

Previous discussion...

once the convection dies down, expect dry weather the remainder
of the night. Light winds and mostly clear skies will allow fog
to form in some spots, especially parts of the ct valley.

Dew points in the upper 40s and 50s should leave room for temps
to cool down into the 50s most places by early morning.

Short term 6 am Wednesday morning through Wednesday night
The upper trough is overhead along with its cold pool. So
continued support for lift. But the airmass will be much drier
with a moist layer limited to the 750-850 mb layer. Expect
diurnal clouds but precip is unlikely. Temps aloft will be
equivalent to 8-10c at 850 mb, supporting MAX temps 75-80.

High pressure maintains mostly clear skies and light wind should
allow overnight temps to reach the 50s, with lower 60s in the
urban areas.

Long term Thursday through Tuesday
Highlights...

* scattered showers thunderstorms from Thursday night through
Sunday night
* very warm, humid conditions return Friday, lasting through
the weekend
overview...

12z medium range models and ensembles continue same theme for
summer conditions. Active northern stream in place with a broad
mid level fast flow that looks to continue through the upcoming
weekend at least.

H5 short wave cutoff low moves out of saskatchewan and manitoba
on Thursday, which will push across southern canada into the
northern great lakes through this weekend, then into quebec
Monday. Weak short waves will move along in the general w-sw
steering flow around the base of the cutoff low through the
broad trough to its S and sw. Will see rounds of scattered
showers thunderstorms as each short wave moves across. Very
sultry airmass in place thanks to bermuda high sitting off the
carolina coast. Will see dewpts rising to the mid-upper 60s late
this week through the weekend. The offshore high and western
atlantic mid level ridging will cause an approaching cold front
to stall west of the region.

Question will be when the h5 trough will move across the region
early next week. Model solution spread leading to lower
confidence on timing of cold front that may approach around
Monday or the 4th of july.

Details...

Thursday-Thursday night...

high pressure off the mid atlantic SE u.S. Coast will keep dry
conditions across the region through about midday Thursday. A
warm front will start to approach, with some showers that may
develop across N and W mass, mainly N of the mass pike around or
after 21z. Will see some more instability start to work into w
mass N central ct Thu night as the warm front moves across, so
have included chance thunder from w-e.

Highs Thursday will mainly be in the lower-mid 80s away from
the S coast, only in the 70s along the S coast. Overnight lows
will be in the mid-upper 60s.

Friday through Sunday...

with the ridge in place off the coast, continued SW flow
through this period. Typical summertime airmass in place, with
dewpts up to the mid and upper 60s with a few spots that may
touch 70, along with h85 temps rising to +16c to +18c fri-sat.

With the soupy airmass, will likely see nighttime fog develop
mainly around or after midnight as temps fall back close to the
higher dewpts.

Will see scattered showers and thunderstorms from the midday
through evening hours each day, especially across the interior.

Looks like best shot for convection will occur Friday
afternoon evening, then again Saturday especially over western
areas. The ridge offshore may allow for somewhat drier air and
subsidence to move into coastal areas on Saturday, so could be
drier during the daylight hours. Approaching cold front on
Sunday will trigger another round of convection as well.

Will likely see some brief heavy downpours in some activity
thanks to pwats increasing to 1.5 to 1.8 inches, especially
Friday afternoon evening and again Sat night-Sunday.

Some question as to whether some stronger storms will develop
during this timeframe. Will continue to monitor this aspect.

One other issue is possible heat headlines on Fri and sat, due
to combination of high temps (lower 90s) and dewpts (up to 70
degs). Could reach high indices close to 95, which would trigger
possible advisories. Current forecast suggests lower 90s. Will
monitor this as well.

Monday-Tuesday...

low confidence on this portion of the forecast due to model
solution spread, mainly with frontal passage. Some question on
frontal passage late Sun night or Mon morning which will wash
out rather quickly as winds shift back to SW during mon
afternoon. Another front may approach during Tue which may
trigger more convection.

Aviation 02z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

updated 10 pm...

t-storms now offshore with frontal passage wind shift to the wnw
from ore- bdl-hfd and continuing to move east, ushering in
dry stable airmass overnight. Earlier discussion below.

=====================================================================
areas of fog possible after midnight with the best chance in
the ct river valley north of springfield.

Wednesday...

vfr and drier weather. Showers tstms will fire again north of
mass, but all quiet in southern new england. West-northwest
winds.

Wednesday night...

vfr. Light winds and clearing skies. Patchy fog possible late at
night.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf. Showers and t-storms
likely this evening. A few of the stronger storms may contain
small hail and gusty winds.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf. Showers and t-storms
diminish this evening.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday... High confidence.

MainlyVFR. Dry through midday, then scattered afternoon
evening showers across N and W mass mainly N of the mass pike.

Showers thunderstorms possible entire region Thu night. Gusty
sw winds to 20- 30 kt developing along the S coast late Thu thu
night.

Friday through Sunday... Moderate confidence.

Patchy early morning fog each day with local MVFR-ifr
conditions. Otherwise mainlyVFR. Local MVFR-ifr in possible
strong thunderstorms, mainly during the midday through evening
hours.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

updated 750 pm...

showers and thunderstorms over land will move over parts of the
waters this evening. Best chance will be along the massachusetts
north shore.

Have ended the small craft for the nearshore waters as s-sw
winds have diminished. Expect gusts up to 20 kt through around
04z or so. Seas generally 3 feet or less.

Wednesday and Wednesday night...

winds become wnw at modest speeds. Seas 3 feet or less.

Outlook Thursday through Sunday ...

Thursday... Moderate confidence.

Small craft advisories will likely be needed. SW winds will
increase, with gusts to 25-30 kt highest across the southern
outer waters. Seas build to 6 to 8 ft over southern waters thu
night.

Friday... Moderate confidence.

Sw winds continue, gusting to around 25 kt, diminishing after
midnight Fri night. Seas up to 5 to 7 ft. Scattered
thunderstorms, some with reduced visibilities and strong gusty
winds. Patchy late night fog.

Saturday-Sunday... Moderate confidence.

Sw winds continue, though diminishing. Seas around 5 ft on the
outer waters sat, then slowly subside. Patchy late night fog
each night with reduced visibilities. Chance of
showers thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Wtb evt
near term... Wtb nocera evt
short term... Wtb
long term... Evt
aviation... Wtb nocera evt
marine... Wtb evt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 33 mi61 min NNW 8 G 9.9 69°F 72°F1014.6 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 38 mi61 min W 4.1 G 5.1 70°F 67°F1013.5 hPa
44039 - Central Long Island Sound 40 mi82 min WSW 14 G 16 69°F 2 ft57°F
LDLC3 - New London Ledge CT - Ledge Light Weather 41 mi142 min SW 14 G 16 68°F 1012.5 hPa61°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 47 mi61 min NW 2.9 G 5.1 69°F 1013.9 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Hartford, Hartford-Brainard Airport, CT1 mi74 minWNW 310.00 miA Few Clouds67°F50°F55%1014.2 hPa
Windsor Locks, Bradley International Airport, CT16 mi76 minWNW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy60°F53°F78%1014.4 hPa
Meriden, Meriden Markham Municipal Airport, CT17 mi74 minNW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy64°F53°F68%1014.4 hPa
Chester, Chester Airport, CT24 mi72 minWNW 310.00 miFair68°F55°F64%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from HFD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS5S3CalmN6N3NE4CalmCalmS3CalmSE5SE3CalmCalmS4S10
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1 day agoN7N9N5CalmCalmCalmS4CalmSW433W64W8NW56
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2 days agoCalmNW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Rocky Hill, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Rocky Hill
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Tue -- 04:44 AM EDT     2.52 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:35 PM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:18 PM EDT     2.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:29 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
00.41.21.92.42.52.321.61.10.70.2-0.1-0.10.41.21.82.12.11.91.61.20.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for Middletown, Connecticut River, Connecticut
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Middletown
Click for MapNote: Tidal information only applies during low river stages.

Tue -- 04:08 AM EDT     2.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:18 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 11:38 AM EDT     -0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:42 PM EDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:28 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 11:54 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.41.222.62.92.82.421.40.80.2-0.2-0.20.31.21.92.42.52.31.91.51.10.60.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Upton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.