Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Rocky Ridge, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 6:14PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 10:07 AM EST (15:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:40PMMoonset 8:14AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ163 Expires:201902202115;;232960 Fzus61 Kcle 201445 Glfle Open Lake Forecast For Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 945 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Erie Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..Low pressure tracking out of the plains will deepen to 29.60 inches as it reaches wisconsin by tonight. The low will continue across the central great lakes to southern quebec by early Thursday pulling a cold front across lake erie. High pressure of 30.40 inches will build east across the lake Thursday night through Friday night. A stronger low pressure system will track out of the plains on Saturday and deepen to 28.90 inches as it reaches the central great lakes on Sunday. This system will pull a strong cold front across lake erie on Sunday. Lez162>165-202115- lake erie open waters from maumee bay to reno beach oh- lake erie open waters from reno beach to the islands oh- lake erie open waters from the islands to vermilion oh- lake erie open waters from vermilion to avon point oh- 945 am est Wed feb 20 2019
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Snow with freezing rain likely late this morning, then snow, rain and freezing rain likely early this afternoon. Rain with snow likely late. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Rain early, then a chance of rain late in the evening.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 20 knots.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest less than 10 knots.
Friday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain during the day, then rain with a chance of Thunderstorms Saturday night.
Sunday..West gales to 35 knots diminishing to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day. Winds higher in and near Thunderstorms. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ163


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Rocky Ridge, OH
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location: 41.71, -83.08     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 201444
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
944 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure over northwest missouri will move to the central
great lakes by this evening. This will allow a warm front to
lift northward across the region this morning. A cold front will
sweep eastward across northern ohio and northwestern
pennsylvania this evening into the overnight. High pressure will
briefly build across that area Thursday night into Friday. A
much stronger storm system will move into the central great
lakes over the weekend.

Near term through Thursday
System largely evolving as expected. Area holding on to snow a
bit longer, but with higher level moisture exiting, could see
some light freezing rain freezing drizzle until temperatures
warm enough. Another surge of rain showers moves in later this
afternoon. No significant changes were made. Previous discussion
follows.

Continue to watch the area of snow slowly move northward with
it now moving into NE ohio. Latest snow reports we have seen
are 1 to locally 3 inches across the southern cwa. Highest
amounts likely across morrow and know counties where several 3
inch reports are expected. Seems we will see a surge of warmer
air around mid morning move into the southern portion of the
area. So a brief transition of sleet to freezing rain is
anticipated. Still believe the greatest chance for icing will be
across interior NW pa but all locations could see some ice on
elevated untreated surfaces.

Previous discussion...

warm front is moving toward the region this morning. Seeing
light snow starting to move into the southern county warning
area (cwa). The heaviest swath of snow still looks like it will
be across the southern CWA near and south of us 30. A couple
inches of snow will be possible in this area before it changes
over to freezing rain. Further north it appears that the snow
will be lighter but the potential for freezing rain during the
morning commute remains possible. A light glaze is possible
through the morning hours but then transition to all rain by mid
afternoon. The corners of the cwa, NW oh and NW pa, will see
the freezing rain potential linger the longest. Since there is a
light glaze of ice possible across the area we will leave the
winter weather advisory in its current configuration.

A cold front will sweep across the area this evening into the
overnight hours. The warmest temperatures of the day will occur
just ahead of the cold front this evening. So the highs for the
day, in the 40s, will be after dark for a large portion of the
region. The remaining rain will transition to a few snow showers
late tonight into Thursday morning. High pressure should be
ridging into the region by Thursday afternoon. Some sunshine
will be possible Thursday afternoon which may help to nudge
highs close to 40 degrees.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday
Dry conditions expected Thursday night through Friday as high
pressure builds east across the region. Min temperatures on
Thursday night will be a little tricky based on the degree of
clearing of the low cloud and the influence of cirrus and high
cloud aloft, dropping into the lower to mid 20s most areas.

Expecting temperatures to recover fairly well with filtered sun
on Friday with highs near 40.

Moisture surges back north Friday night into Saturday with deep
southwest flow ahead of a system moving out of the plains. The
northward extent of the precipitation late Friday night is a little
uncertain given the dry low level easterly flow. If precipitation
arrives in areas before temperatures have a chance to warm above
freezing then could see a quick shot of light freezing rain but
chances look low. Best chance would be towards the toledo area but
would be short lived even there as temperatures climb on Saturday.

Scattered showers expected Saturday with winds veering to the south
as a warm front lifts north into the area. Late day highs in the 50s
are expected.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday
Highly dynamic system lifts out of the plains across the central
great lakes Saturday night through Sunday. A strong low level jet
wrapping north across the area Saturday night will bring showers
with a chance of thunderstorms as the warm sector moves north to
near lake erie. Warming temperatures can be expected Saturday night
with much of the area in the 50s. The system undergoes impressive
deepening both at the surface and aloft as it wraps the cold front
in from the southwest on Sunday morning. Strong winds are expected
with gusts of at least 40-50 mph if the current track holds. Will
need to monitor the track and evolution of this system with the
potential for even stronger wind gusts if the track holds.

Cold advection behind the front will bring falling temperatures
through the day on Sunday with 850mb temperatures falling by nearly
25c in 24 hours. Lingering showers will transition back to snow on
Sunday night before drying out on Monday morning. Temperatures will
back to near normal by Monday.

Aviation 12z Wednesday through Sunday
The area of snow with MVFR ifr conditions continues to move
northeastward across the area. All TAF sites in ohio either are
or will shortly have MVFR ifr conditions. The snow will
transition to a wintry mix through mid morning, lingering
longest across NW oh and NW pa. All locations should transition
to rain through mid afternoon.

Southeast winds will increase through the morning. Most
locations will be around 12 knots but a few gusts may reach 20
knots. Southerly winds this afternoon will shift to the
southwest and west this evening into the overnight. Gusts may
reach 20 to 25 knots with the southwest to west winds.

Outlook... Non-vfr Thursday. NonVFR possible again Saturday Sunday.

Marine
The lake remains mostly ice covered. Easterly flow of 15-20 knots
this morning will veer to the south today as a warm front approaches
from the south. A cold front will quickly follow this evening with
southwest winds increasing to 15-25 knots with locally up to 30
knots on the far east end into Thursday. High pressure will build
east across the region Thursday night through Friday night.

A rapidly deepening low pressure system will track out of the plains
on Saturday, moving northeast across the central great lakes
Saturday night into Sunday and bring strong winds to the region. If
the current track holds, gales are likely on lake erie as the cold
front is wrapped east across the lake. Increased winds accordingly
in the forecast but they may need to be raised even more. Winds will
veer to the northwest on Sunday night and decrease through the day
on Monday.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... Winter weather advisory until 3 pm est this afternoon for
ohz003-006>014-021>023-033-089.

Winter weather advisory until noon est today for ohz017>020-
027>032-036>038-047.

Pa... Winter weather advisory until 9 pm est this evening for
paz001>003.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm oudeman
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Mm
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
TWCO1 10 mi28 min E 20 G 25 28°F 1018.5 hPa26°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 10 mi68 min E 19 G 23 26°F
SBIO1 - South Bass Island, OH 14 mi68 min E 14 G 18 27°F 1022.5 hPa (-3.5)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 21 mi38 min E 16 G 19 26°F 1021.3 hPa23°F
MRHO1 - 9063079 - Marblehead, OH 22 mi38 min ENE 14 G 18 27°F 32°F1022 hPa26°F
HHLO1 - Huron Light, OH 35 mi68 min E 8.9 G 11 27°F 1019.3 hPa (-3.7)
OWXO1 - Old Woman Creek, OH 38 mi83 min ENE 4.1 29°F 1021 hPa27°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monroe, Custer Airport, MI24 mi72 minE 87.00 miOvercast27°F25°F96%1022.7 hPa
Toledo - Toledo Executive Airport, OH24 mi75 minE 84.00 miFog/Mist27°F24°F89%1023 hPa

Wind History from TDZ (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4W3SW73Calm3E8E7E7E6E6E6E6E6E7E7NE9E8NE9NE8E10E12E8E13
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1 day agoNW10NW8NW8NW12NW12NW8NW9NW8NW6NW5CalmCalmW3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm
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N6N8N7N7N7N6NW6NW6N4NW7NW8N10NW7NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.