Wednesday, June28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Painesville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:51AMSunset 9:05PM Wednesday June 28, 2017 6:52 PM EDT (22:52 UTC) Moonrise 10:04AMMoonset 11:31PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 400 Am Edt Wed Jun 28 2017
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Friday through Sunday. The water temperature off toledo is 70 degrees...off cleveland 69 degrees and off erie 71 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201706281415;;940608 FZUS51 KCLE 280800 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 400 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ147>149-281415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painesville, OH
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location: 41.72, -81.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 281922
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
322 pm edt Wed jun 28 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will continue to move east of the area and off the
east coast tonight. This will allow a low to cut northeast
across the central great lakes bringing a weak warm front
northeast across the area Thursday. A boundary will be present
Thursday and Friday, which will become the focus of convection.

Near term through Thursday
A difficult forecast with greater than normal uncertainty is in
store for the near term. Dry weather will continue through
tonight and into Thursday morning as a ridge of high pressure
moves off the eastern seaboard. A weak warm front will lift
northeast across the area Thursday morning as a surface low cuts
northeast across the great lakes. It appears there will be
minimal forcing along this front, so not expecting anything in
the way of precipitation along it as it moves through.

By the afternoon this front will be well north of the area.

However, a differential heating boundary will develop and this
will be the primary focus for convection. There is still
uncertainty in just how strong this boundary will be, but it
should be strong enough to get at least a couple storms to fire
across northwest ohio during the late afternoon and evening
hours. Isolated storms may also be able to develop in the
higher terrain of northwest pennsylvania as we see increasing
instability developing throughout the afternoon. Some cams
(convective-allowing models) do not show any storms developing
at all, however, with the amount of instability present combined
with the boundary mentioned above and sufficient shear, this
seems improbable.

Storms should increase in coverage after dark, especially
within a county or two of the lakeshore, as moisture continues
to be advected northward into the area.

Environmental parameters suggest a few severe storms will be
possible from Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. MLCAPE on
the order of 1500 j kg (eastern areas) to 2500 j kg (northwest
ohio), combined with 30 to 40 knots of 0-6km bulk shear and
steep low-level lapse rates suggests the primary threats with
any storm that develops will be damaging winds and large hail.

If a storm can become rooted along the differential heating
boundary in northwest ohio, then an isolated weak tornado cannot
be ruled out. Storms will begin to weaken dissipate after
midnight or so.

Short term Thursday night through Saturday night
Broad upper level trough will swing east across the forecast area
through this forecast period. A weak shortwave trough will move
east across the region Friday setting up a narrow low level jet
streak across lake erie Friday into Friday night. This will put
the local forecast area in the right rear quad of the jet as
well. Abundant moisture appears to be surging into the local
area Friday along with a weak area of low pressure and a warm
frontal boundary stretched west to east across the lower great
lakes. All of these features working together in concert will
bring another round of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast
area Friday. Warm air advection south of the warm front will
help boost temperatures back into the 80s due to the low level
jet in place. Breezy conditions will take place as well at
between 10 and 20 knots.

The whole weather package will shift east Friday night into Saturday
allowing a ridge of high pressure at the surface to build in from
the west Saturday through Sunday. This feature will try to make an
attempt to bring drier weather to the local area. However, with
upper level trough in place, can't rule out a possibility for a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms by Sunday. Slightly
cooler air pushes southeast in the wake of the surface low
pressure system. Although, temperatures will still remain in the
upper 70s east to lower 80s elsewhere across the area Saturday
and Sunday.

Due to the warm air advection Friday night, will likely see balmy
temperatures in the lower 70s for lows.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Near normal temperatures expected through the long term period,
Sunday night through Wednesday, as a stationary front remains
settled over the region. There will likely be some temperature
variations depending on the boundary location, but it's way too
early for specifics, so will opt for consensus blend for temps.

Pops will increase during this period, especially Tuesday as
long range models peg low pressure tracking across the region.

Will opt for no higher than chance pops at this point.

Aviation 18z Wednesday through Monday
Vfr conditions will continue through the forecast period with
high pressure over the area. High clouds will continue to spread
into the region. Winds will increase sharply Thursday morning
with southerly winds gusting to 25 to 30 knots by mid morning.

For kcle, a chance of thunderstorms will exist after 22z, so
have included a prob30 at this time.

Outlook... Non-vfr conditions possible in thunderstorms Thursday
evening into Thursday night and again Friday afternoon evening
into Friday night.

Marine
Southwesterly winds will quickly increase Thursday morning into
the afternoon hours. With the southwest flow the higher waves
should generally tend to stay out in the open waters, but winds
will approach small craft advisory criteria. Will hold off on
issuing for now and pass it off to the next shift. Winds will
begin to calm down a bit Thursday night, but storms chances will
be increasing through the late evening and overnight hours.

Winds will be around 15 to 25 knots on the lake Friday out of the
southwest and then quickly diminish as a cold frontal boundary
slides southeast across the lake Friday night. Generally light and
variable flow is expected Saturday increasing to 15 to 25 knots
again Sunday from the southwest as a surface high pressure ridge
builds east into the region.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mottice
near term... Mottice
short term... Lombardy
long term... Greenawalt
aviation... Mottice
marine... Lombardy mottice


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 4 mi52 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 71°F 1017.2 hPa (-1.9)54°F
GELO1 - Geneva on the Lake, OH 17 mi92 min ENE 2.9 G 5.1 70°F
45164 24 mi52 min ESE 3.9 69°F 70°F1017.2 hPa (-2.1)
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 24 mi52 min SSW 4.1 G 12 77°F 48°F
45176 30 mi32 min SSW 12 G 14 75°F 71°F1 ft1016.6 hPa55°F
45169 32 mi32 min SSW 9.7 G 14 74°F 70°F1 ft1017.1 hPa58°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 40 mi52 min E 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 1017.6 hPa (-2.4)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH16 mi67 minno data20.00 miOvercast77°F50°F39%1018.3 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W6SW4S4S5--------------SW8SW8SW12W10W10W10W5NW5N5SW8S10--
1 day agoW12W9S10SW15
G25
W10--------------NW8W8W6NW12W13NW10
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2 days agoNW12W10--W7SW4--------------SW6SW8W12W8W12NW15
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W10NW14W9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.