Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Painesville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 6:09PM Saturday February 23, 2019 9:31 AM EST (14:31 UTC) Moonrise 11:09PMMoonset 9:45AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Expires:201902230915;;362375 Fzus51 Kcle 230225 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 925 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez146>149-230915- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 925 Pm Est Fri Feb 22 2019
.storm watch in effect from Sunday morning through late Sunday night...
Overnight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Mostly cloudy. Waves in ice free areas 1 foot or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming south. Rain showers likely in the evening, then rain showers with a chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..South winds to 30 knots becoming west and increasing to 50 knot storms in the afternoon. Rain showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet building to 6 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Wave heights are for ice free areas. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Monday through Wednesday. The water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees, off cleveland 33 degrees and off erie 33 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painesville, OH
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location: 41.72, -81.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 231121
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
621 am est Sat feb 23 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure near the texas panhandle will rapidly deepen as it
moves toward the central great lakes this afternoon into
tonight. A strong cold front associated with this storm system
will swing through the area Sunday morning with very strong
winds expected into Sunday night. High pressure will build back
into the area early next week.

Near term through Sunday
Made a minor change to the timing of the chance of
thunderstorms in the grids. Delayed the chance until 10 pm at
the earliest. Otherwise only made a tweak to the hourly
temperatures to reflect current trends.

Previous discussion...

a warm front will approach the area today with cloud cover
slowly lowering through the day. Rain will be slow to move
northward as we gradually saturate the lower levels of the
atmosphere. Rain begins across the south by early afternoon then
gradually spreads northward into this evening. As the deepening
area of low pressure moves toward the central great lakes we
will see increasing chances of thunderstorms. Models continue to
indicate that there will be low levels of instability advecting
into the area under an extremely sheared environment. While the
region is not outlooked for severe thunderstorms there is still
a slim chance that an isolated severe thunderstorm or two may
develop from around 03z through 10z. The heaviest rainfall will
be near and ahead of the cold front with most locations seeing
1 4 to 3 4 of an inch. The highest amounts should be south but
if thunderstorms develop this could change.

The greatest concern with this forecast is the overall strong
wind field associated with it. The southeasterly downsloping
flow near the warm front late this evening into the overnight
hours may see winds above 45 mph across portions of erie county,
pa. While this is something to watch the winds near and in the
wake of the cold front that will cross the area early Sunday
morning should be significant. Data that compares this storm
system with other similar storms from the past indicate that
this storm may easily exceed past events. Concerns are growing
that a large portion of the area will see wind gusts in excess
of 60 mph Sunday morning into the afternoon. We will hold off on
the upgrade to the high wind warning for now after coordination
with surrounding offices. However expect the high wind warning
to be issued by 4 pm this afternoon.

Locations along the lakeshore will need to monitor ice floes
with significant amounts of ice potentially piling up on the
shoreline in the wake of the cold front on Sunday. There is
concern that water levels along erie county pa will be elevated
enough to push the ice farther inland than what is typical. Also
some minor concerns for some lakeshore flooding. This will
continue to be evaluated through the day.

Temperatures will be above seasonal averages through the short
term period. Daytime highs this afternoon will range from the
lower 40s across inland NW pa to around 50 south. However
temperatures will continue to warm into the evening ahead of
the cold front. Middle to upper 50s are definitely possible
tonight before dropping late. Highs on Sunday will be early and
will range from the mid 40s to around 50.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday night
Winds will continue to howl Sunday evening and Sunday night with
strong cold air advection. Westerly winds will remain 30 to 45 mph
with gusts over 50 at times. Models continue to indicate scattered
flurries or snow showers around the area Sunday evening turning into
some lake effect for the primary snowbelt areas Sunday night through
Monday morning. There is even some potential for a lake effect
streamer to come all the way from lake michigan into the lakeshore
areas because of the very strong wind flow. We will only see a
dusting of snow for most areas but the primary snowbelt areas,
especially NW pennsylvania, could see several inches. In areas that
do see some accumulation, the wind will cause blowing snow as well
and reduced visibilites. The lake effect snow showers taper off late
on Monday as the flow becomes weak and high pressure moves in.

Models show the next wave moving across the upper midwest early
Tuesday with a band of light snow across the great lakes region and
perhaps making it all the way to northern ohio Tuesday morning. This
band will lift northward Tuesday afternoon into canada. Then model
guidance becomes more uncertain for the mid week time frame.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
The overall timing of potential weather systems and frontal passages
become harder to nail down for the middle and end of next week with
diverging solutions in the guidance. We this forecast update, we
have leaned more with the euro solutions as the GFS seems to be the
outlier for the end of next week. We will likely see more cloudiness
than sunshine for much of next week with seasonable temperatures or
either side of average. There may be a chance for some light snow on
Wednesday with a weak system and another chance for some light
precip again by the end of the week. But at this time, we don't see
any major storm systems or significant impacts.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
Vfr conditions should continue through the morning. The
exception will be some MVFR fog haze around sunrise. A warm
front will approach the region from the south today with rain
slowly spreading northward into the afternoon. Believe ceilings
will not drop to MVFR levels until some light rain arrives. By
evening ceilings across the west may dip to ifr with the steady
rain beginning to spread into the region. Thunderstorms, if they
occur, will be after 02z.

Easterly winds will gradually increase through the morning with
around 10 knots by afternoon. As winds shift to the southeast
they will increase to 15 to 20 knots. Some higher gusts will
develop after 03z.

Outlook... High wind threat Sunday and Sunday night. Non-vfr
likely Sunday with lingering showers and the development of lake
effect snow Sunday night.

Marine
With coordination with our neighboring offices, we have upgraded to
a storm warning on the central and eastern portions of lake erie. We
have also a gale warning for the western basin of the lake where
winds will be just a little lower. The main concerns we have this
weekend will be the extreme wind on the lake and nearby lakeshore
areas. We will also be concern with water being pushed away from the
western basin to the eastern basin. We have issued a low water
advisory for the western end of the lake where water levels are
forecast to fall below the critical mark for safe navigation. We
expect levels to fall to at least 2 or 3 feet below the critical
water level mark. Some guidance show the potential could be even
lower than that but confidence is low on that low level. The eastern
basin of the lake will likely see higher than normal water levels.

We currently think water levels could rise a foot or two above
normal for the lakeshore areas of erie county, pa.

The storm warning, gale warning, and low water advisory will start
Sunday morning and last through Sunday night into early Monday
morning. Southerly winds will increase today and tonight ahead of
the rapidly developing and deepening area of low pressure across the
great lakes region. A strong cold front will move through early
Sunday morning and shift the winds to southwesterly and then
westerly 40 to 50 knots with gusts over 60 knots possible. The lake
is mostly ice covered but we do expect big shifts of ice and
movement. In ice free areas of the lake, waves will likely build
between 5 and 12 feet.

Winds will start relaxing late Monday and Monday night as high
pressure moves in. Winds will shift to more northerly as well. A
light easterly flow returns on Tuesday followed by southeasterly
flow between 10 and 15 knots. Another front will move across the
lake late on Wednesday with a shift back to the west-northwest.

Ice on the lake will get stirred up as numerous floes have
developed. The strong winds will likely cause ridging and rafting of
the ice. The strong winds will also likely push the ice inland as
ice shoves develop, especially lakeshore areas which face southwest
or westerly with onshore flow. Some damage from the ice could occur
along the shore to structures due to the high water levels and
strong winds.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
ohz010>014-020>023-031>033-038-089.

High wind watch from late tonight through late Sunday night
for ohz003-006>009-017>019-027>030-036-037-047.

Pa... High wind watch from Sunday morning through Monday morning for
paz001>003.

Marine... Low water advisory from 7 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for
lez142>144-162>164.

Gale warning from 7 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for
lez142>145-162>165.

Storm warning from 10 am Sunday to 4 am est Monday for
lez146>149-166>169.

Synopsis... Mm
near term... Mm
short term... Griffin
long term... Griffin
aviation... Mm
marine... Griffin


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 4 mi31 min ENE 12 G 12 31°F 34°F1023.3 hPa (-1.5)28°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 24 mi31 min E 5.1 G 7 31°F 1022.2 hPa (-1.5)26°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 40 mi31 min ENE 11 G 12 31°F 1024.4 hPa

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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W25
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G29
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SW17
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SW14
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH16 mi46 minSE 810.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F23°F60%1022.7 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE4N5NE4N6N7NE6NE5NE5NE3NE3NE4NE4E4--------------SE4SE6SE8
1 day agoW10
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W18W11
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W13W11W13W9W10W11
G19
W10W8W9W9--------------N4CalmNE4
2 days agoE8E9
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G25
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S12S8SW11--------------W11W13
G21
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.