Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Painesville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:56AMSunset 8:46PM Thursday May 23, 2019 2:39 AM EDT (06:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ147 Expires:201905230215;;289256 Fzus51 Kcle 221932 Nshcle Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland Oh 332 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lez144>147-230215- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From The Islands To Vermilion Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh- 332 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms early, then isolated showers late this evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Saturday through Monday. The water temperature off toledo is 60 degrees, off cleveland 54 degrees and off erie 54 degrees.
LEZ147


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painesville, OH
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 41.72, -81.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kcle 230614
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
214 am edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A warm front extending from low pressure over minnesota will
lift north across the area over the course of this evening and
tonight. As low pressure continues northeast across the upper
great lakes on Thursday, a cold front will settle south across
the area. This boundary will lift back north on Saturday as a
warm front then stall overhead on Sunday.

Near term through today
Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to move east and out of
the area at this time. Updated to push back edge of rain threat
further east. Line of showers and thunderstorms already
approaching from the west and expected to arrive in the western
portions of the forecast area around sunrise in the morning.

Otherwise, forecast looks on target.

Previous discussion...

plume of moisture continues to stream northward into ohio this
afternoon in advance of a warm front moving into central oh.

Scattered showers continue to break out and, up to this point,
have been without thunder. Closer to the warm front marginal
mucape exists and expect scattered thunderstorms to be possible
east of i-71 this evening as a narrow nose of instability works
into eastern oh with the shear to loosely organize storms. Mid
level lapse rates continue to remain poor. After about 10 or 11
pm, the remainder of the tonight forecast is dry, but we will
be looking upstream as convection nears northwest oh Thursday
morning. Latest trends is for this initial convection to arrive
earlier, but be able to retain modest strength. Low level jet
will carry this into the area and have likely pops march across
the area during the morning hours. Lapse rates are better and
will have a narrow corridor of MLCAPE and shear to maintain the
convection across. If indeed this is the case, pops would need
to be raised. But cold front is still off to the northwest and
will not cross until later in the afternoon so some
redevelopment is likely with at least scattered coverage. Areas
along east remain in the SPC slight risk. Partially clearing and
drying out faster too Thursday night with high pressure
shifting across the central great lakes. Temperatures will be
mild tonight in the warm sector with the southerly flow. Warm
again Thursday, although it may be a slow start with precip to
start. Lows in the lower mid 50s Thursday night in the wake of
the cold front.

Short term tonight through Saturday night
Friday begins with high pressure across the area, extending in
from the north. To our west and southwest, a warm front will be
near a chicago to cincinnati line. As the front moves ene into
the area Friday night, the NAM shows capes rise to over 1000
j kg in the warm sector but much of this is elevated and the air
aloft will be fairly dry so for now will have Friday dry and
Friday night mainly slight chance with a low chance pop north.

Saturday capes again rise to 1500-2000 j kg with afternoon
heating. Models also show a cold front advancing into the area
from the north. The day should start dry for most but in the
afternoon will boost pops to likely much of the area. Models
hinting on the cold front stalling out dissipating somewhere in
the area Saturday night although for now will taper pops into
the low chance slight chance category. Sunday will continue with
chance likely pops with the weak front in the area. Highs
Friday mostly 70s. Highs Saturday 80 to 85. Sunday highs 75 to
80.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Monday the weak cold front from Sunday will track back north as
a warm front ahead of low pressure moving into the western
lakes. No real forcing otherwise so will just have chance pops
for the day for afternoon evening convection. Monday night will
drop to slight chance as the low moves northeast through the
western and central lakes. Seems any forcing would be well away
from the area. Tuesday the GFS shows stability rather low with
afternoon li's around -7c and what looks like a prefrontal
trough in advance of the warm front tracking across the area in
the afternoon. For now will have chance pops. The cold front
associated with the low will move through on Wednesday. Will
continue with chance pops for the balance of the forecast.

Aviation 06z Thursday through Monday
Areas of fog have been developing across SW ohio with MVFR
already at fdy at 05z. Thickening high cloud is expected to
prevent visibilities from dropping much more but could see
patchy MVFR during the overnight hours. Otherwise watching an
area of showers and thunderstorms across illinois that are
expected to reach NW ohio towards 10-12z. Although some
weakening is expected, tried to time scattered thunderstorms
into tol fdy around 11z, spreading east towards cle mfd cak at
12-14z and yng eri towards 14-15z. Did not add stronger wind
gusts to the terminals yet but it's possible we could see gusts
to 30-40 knots if thunderstorms maintain strength. Brief heavy
rain with ifr visibilities and even small hail will be
possible.

After the morning activity moves through, the airmass will try
to destabilize from mfd-cak and points south. Scattered
thunderstorms may re-develop this afternoon in this area and
may need to be added to the terminals.

Thunderstorm activity early this morning is going to be fueled
by a low level jet with wind speeds of 40-45 knots at 2000 feet
and have included a window of low level wind sheer from
cleveland westward. By late morning we will start to see
southwest winds become breezy with gusts to around 25-30 knots.

Winds will drop off to 5-15 knots tonight as they shift around
to the northwest behind a cold front.

Outlook... Non-vfr possible in thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday.

Marine
Have dropped the lakeshore flood warning as easterly flow has
weakened. Low pressure moves through the northern and central
lakes overnight forcing a warm front northeast across the lake.

A cold front will follow from the northwest on Thursday.

Guidance has winds increasing to around 15 to 20 knots on the
central and eastern basin. Highest waves are expected to remain
out of the nearshore waters but it will get close to small craft
conditions. For now will not issue a headline but one may be
needed. Winds turn northwest but diminish behind the cold front
Thursday night. Light wind will continue through Friday night.

Saturday southerly flow will increase to around 15 knots behind
another warm front and in advance of the next cold front. Winds
will diminish and turn northwest on Saturday night. Winds will
remain light through the balance of the forecast.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Oudeman
near term... Lombardy oudeman
short term... Tk
long term... Tk
aviation... Kec
marine... Tk


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 4 mi46 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 65°F 60°F1015.8 hPa62°F
45164 24 mi100 min 52°F1 ft
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 24 mi46 min SSE 1.9 G 5.1 68°F 56°F1015.7 hPa62°F
45176 30 mi30 min N 5.8 G 9.7 62°F 56°F1 ft
45169 32 mi30 min ESE 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 54°F1 ft1018.9 hPa

Wind History for Fairport, OH
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
AM
-12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
-12
PM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
Last
24hr
E11
SE14
G18
SE15
G20
SE11
G14
NE6
NE14
SE7
G10
SE8
SE11
G14
S6
G9
N10
E6
SE5
SE5
SE4
S8
S9
1 day
ago
N12
G15
N9
N8
N10
N10
G14
N10
N6
N6
NW4
NW3
NW3
NW3
NW5
W4
W6
W3
NW2
NW3
NW2
N2
NE3
NE6
E11
E10
2 days
ago
SW19
SW16
SW16
G20
SW19
G24
SW22
W26
W22
W20
W17
W19
W21
W21
W19
W20
W16
NW15
G19
NW13
G17
N21
N14
G17
N14
N14
G18

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH16 mi45 minSSE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F63°F86%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
-12
PM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrE6E6E7E8SE15
G25
SE12
G21
SE10
G20
SE15
G23
SE16
G26
SE14
G25
S7
G14
S8SE8S9S9NW7CalmSE3SE5CalmSE6SE4SE6S8
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5N5N4E5N7N6N5N5N5N6NE4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmE6CalmE4
2 days ago--------SW10
G16
SW10W16
G22
W14
G23
W14
G22
W13
G22
W13
G26
W14
G25
W15
G22
W13
G18
W12
G22
NW12NW9NW7NW7N9N9
G16
N7N8Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.