Friday, November16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Painesville, OH

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:04PM Friday November 16, 2018 10:34 AM EST (15:34 UTC) Moonrise 2:06PMMoonset 12:05AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ147 Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Vermilion To Avon Point Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on- The Lake Oh-lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Geneva-on-the- Lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Nearshore Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 917 Am Est Fri Nov 16 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
This afternoon..Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. A chance of rain and snow showers, then rain showers likely with snow showers late. Waves 5 to 8 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Tonight..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow and rain showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow and rain showers in the morning, then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Snow showers likely with a chance of rain showers in the evening, then a chance of snow and rain showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet. SEe lake erie open lakes forecast for Sunday through Tuesday. The water temperature off toledo is 40 degrees, off cleveland 48 degrees and off erie 45 degrees.
LEZ147 Expires:201811162115;;392992 FZUS51 KCLE 161417 NSHCLE Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Cleveland OH 917 AM EST Fri Nov 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ145>149-162115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painesville, OH
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location: 41.72, -81.24     debug


Area Discussion for - Cleveland, OH
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Fxus61 kcle 161455
afdcle
area forecast discussion
national weather service cleveland oh
955 am est Fri nov 16 2018

Synopsis
A deepening nor'easter off of new england will continue to push
east today, while a weaker area of low pressure over lake
superior moves north. A second cold front will dip into the
region today. A mix of light rain and snow will be possible with
a transition to lake effect later today into Saturday.

Near term through Saturday
Overall, fairly minor changes to the forecast this morning.

Made some adjustments to the timing of precipitation given
current radar trends. Did put in some snow accumulation in the
snow belt for today into tonight as temperatures remain fairly
close to freezing and the obs still show some light snow and
therefore could see some light accumulations.

Prev discussion...

light wet snow in NW pa will continue to exit east as a
deepening nor'easter impacts new england this morning.

Accumulating snow has all but ended, however some slushy
lingering snow from overnight could lead to slippery travel this
morning. Some morning snow showers or patchy drizzle will start
the day off, however with surface and road temperatures above
freezing for all by higher terrain in pa, not expecting impacts
on the roads. Later this morning a piece of 500h energy will
move over the lower lakes along with a surface cold front. Some
brief moistening of the dgz zone with synoptic moisture could
produce enough ice crystals for some snow showers flurries
mainly near the lakeshore, with periods of light rain drizzle.

The airmass will show only a modest cooling aloft behind the
cold front. A SW to wsw wind later today will start a better
fetch across the lake. This with modest lake induced instability
expect an increase in shower development. The best chance for
lake effect rain snow showers will occur this afternoon into
tonight. Temperatures at the surface will be a limiting factor
in any accumulation snow, with most but the higher elevations
seeing a mix of rain and snow. High temperatures will be in the
upper 30s. Low stratus clouds will continue throughout the day
and into tonight.

On Saturday the flow aloft becomes more zonal reducing the
overlake instability, but still seeing the 13c t difference
between the water surface and 850h supporting light lake effect
activity. At the surface, the area will see advancing high
pressure over the northern plains edging southeast into the
great lakes. Meanwhile, weakening high pressure over west
virginia will be pushing south. The convergence zone over the
region will keep a chance for rain snow showers, with added
enhancement from the lake for the primary snowbelt. There will
once again be a mix of rain and snow with limited opportunity
for accumulating snow. Temperatures will remain in the upper 30s
for most of the region under cloudy skies.

Short term Saturday night
Surface trough and cold front settles south across lake erie
late Saturday. Convergence over the lake ahead of this feature
will result in an increase in lake enhanced precipitation, which
is expected to shift south into the snowbelt as the flow veers.

Any better snow showers will only last a couple hours before we
start to dry with a northerly fetch setting up across the lake.

Highest snow accumulations of 1-2 inches will be in NW pa with
amounts of less than an inch in ohio. Cold front stall across
central ohio on Sunday until a weak wave of low pressure slides
through the upper ohio valley. Light snow may continue along
this boundary on Sunday morning before temperatures warm into
the mid 30s with a transition to a wet rain snow mix for the
afternoon. High pressure and drier air will arrive from the west
Sunday night. Most of the area will be dry on Monday ahead of
the next system.

Long term Sunday through Thursday
Discrepancies between the models develop by Monday with the ecmwf
dropping a back door cold front south across the area Monday evening
while the GFS tracks a wave of low pressure across the central great
lakes with the front not arriving until Tuesday morning. Either
solution will warrant a chance of snow in the snowbelt but amounts
will be higher if the GFS verifies. Lake effect snow showers will
continue in the snowbelt on Tuesday as 850mb temps fall to at least
-10c. Several factors need to be worked out in the models,
including moisture depth, pattern evolution, and thermal
profiles before getting more excited about lake effect snow.

Will keep a chance of snow showers in the snowbelt for now.

Temperatures will remain well below normal Tuesday and
Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 30s. The ridge builds
aloft by thanksgiving day with winds shifting around to the
southwest and temperatures recovering into the lower to mid
40s.

Aviation 12z Friday through Tuesday
A weak upper level disturbance will trigger some scattered snow
showers or drizzle across the area this morning. Coverage not
enough to mention in tafs though could see a brief drop in vsby
around 5sm. Winds will pick up on the backside of this system
with gusts in the 20-25kt range, and as high as 35kt in eri
starting around 15z and lasting through this evening. CIGS will
remain around 800-1,200 feet as moisture is trapped below an
inversion with no notable mixing drying expected. Lake effect
rain snow showers likely to develop and could impact eri later
today through this evening.

Outlook... Non-vfr likely Saturday through Sunday.

Marine
Low pressure taking shape across the upper great lakes will pull a
trough across the lake erie today with southwesterly winds
increasing to 25-30 knots. Winds may briefly approach gales on the
east end of the lake but not expected to enough to warrant a gale
warning. Small craft advisories have been issued for the whole lake.

Winds will remain near 20 knots tonight then gradually decrease and
back to southwesterly on Saturday as high pressure expands into .

The ohio valley. The southwesterly flow will also result in water
levels falling to near the critical mark on the western basin. The
water level has fallen to around 30 inches above lwd as of 330 am.

These are expected to bottom out within a few inches of the critical
mark late this afternoon evening. We will monitor winds
and water levels today and update if needed.

The next cold front will move south across the lake Monday and waves
may approach small craft criteria for a few hours.

Cle watches warnings advisories
Oh... None.

Pa... None.

Marine... Low water advisory until 10 pm est this evening for lez142>144-
162>164.

Small craft advisory until 4 pm est Saturday for lez145>149.

Small craft advisory until 3 am est Saturday for lez142>144.

Synopsis... Jamison
near term... Jamison sefcovic
short term... Kec
long term... Kec
aviation... Jamison
marine... Kec


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FAIO1 - 9063053 - Fairport, OH 4 mi35 min SW 18 G 22 35°F 38°F1010.3 hPa (+0.0)35°F
CNDO1 - 9063063 - Cleveland, OH 24 mi35 min 35°F 49°F1011.2 hPa (+0.4)26°F
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 40 mi35 min SSW 15 G 19 34°F 1009.5 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Fairport, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cleveland / Cuyahoga, OH16 mi50 minWSW 10 G 178.00 miOvercast34°F28°F81%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from CGF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE12SE12SE12SE11SE12SE14S10S10S10S10S8S6SW6--------------SW18
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1 day agoNE7N8N7N9NE6CalmCalmNE6E6E6E5CalmE5--------------E7SE11SE12S12
2 days agoNW10
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W8NW8NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Cleveland, OH (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Cleveland, OH
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.