Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
West Chatham, MA

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Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday June 20, 2019 1:02 AM EDT (05:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:00PMMoonset 7:58AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 904 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Overnight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. A slight chance of showers late this evening. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Sun night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 904 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low clouds and fog along with light winds will persist through early Thursday. Some improvement during Thursday prior to a sweeping cold front with showers and Thunderstorms along and ahead. High pressure and westerly winds for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near West Chatham, MA
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location: 41.73, -69.97     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 200103
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
903 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
Widely scattered showers will be possible through tonight, but
the majority of this time period should feature dry weather. A
more potent storm system impacts the region late Thursday into
Friday with numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms
that may contain locally heavy rainfall, especially across
northern and western ma. Dry and seasonable weather returns for
the weekend, then more summery weather for early next week with
a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms at times.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
9 pm update...

widely scattered showers showing up on regional radars and per
going forecast expect to see some increase in coverage overnight
as deeper moisture enters sne ahead of short wave. Otherwise,
expect a muggy night with low clouds and patchy fog.

Lows in 60s look good.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through Thursday night
Thursday Thursday night...

shower chances increase thru Thursday, likely to categorical pops,
with brief locally heavy rainfall possible. Surface low pressure
tracks from the southern great lakes region eastward into new
england. Low pressure drops to 995 mb, atypical for mid-june. System
is moisture-rich with pwats near 2", and is accompanied by a digging
trough axis and divergence aloft from a curved upper level jet. The
better dynamics are expected to be N of our area, where a lingering
frontal boundary will also provide better forcing. Convective
allowing models support this as where the higher QPF is forecast.

However this will need to continue to be monitored.

Within sne, expecting mainly 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall during
thu into Thu night, with locally higher lower amounts possible.

Highest rainfall totals are expected across northern western
ma. Scattered thunderstorms are expected during Thursday
afternoon and evening, which could bring localized heavy
rainfall and minor urban poor drainage flooding.

Winds start off light from the east Thu morning, becoming S se
later in the day. Cloud cover, precipitation and onshore flow
will limit highs to the mid 60s to mid 70s, coolest along the
shoreline and the higher terrain of the east slopes berkshires.

Surface low expected cross thru sne during the overnight, bringing a
cold front thru the area. Pwats remain quite high during this
timeframe, again close to 2", and soundings remain close to moist
adiabatic. Thus we have continued likely to categorical pops for
showers, with scattered to isolated thunderstorms possible thru the
evening hours.

Winds Thu night start out from the S se, then eventually become nw
during the overnight as the low starts to track E of our area.

Surface dewpoints remain high overnight, keeping lows in the low to
mid 60s across most of the region. Far interior higher terrain may
be a bit cooler, in the upper 50s, towards daybreak fri.

Long term Friday through Wednesday
Highlights...

* showers linger fri, improving from west to east in the afternoon
* dry seasonable this weekend with a warming trend
* warmer temps early next week with the risk for a few showers t-
storms but majority of the time will be dry
details...

Friday...

surface low and attending cold front will be moving off the coast in
the morning, but sharp mid level trough axis and deep moisture plume
is lagging to the west and sweeps through new eng during the day
with comma head likely bringing a period of showers to the region.

Drying moves in from the west in the afternoon so expect improving
conditions and partial sunshine developing in western new eng in the
afternoon. Temps are tricky Fri and may fall into the upper 50s to
lower 60s as showers move through with post frontal northerly winds,
then possibly recover into the 70s in the ct valley in the afternoon
as sunshine develops.

Saturday and Sunday...

deep upper trough from the maritimes to east of new eng Sat with
cyclonic flow will lead to diurnal CU developing and a mix of clouds
and sun. There is a low risk for a brief shower sprinkle in eastern
ma as shortwave energy rotates through. Otherwise, a dry day with
seasonable temps in the 70s, but breezy at times. Then Sunday will
feature more sunshine, less wind and warmer temps as the upper tough
lifts out. Highs should reach upper 70s to lower 80s as 850 mb
temps moderate to 12-14c by late day.

Monday through Wednesday...

upper ridge builds into new eng Mon but is replaced by a broad
trough late Tue into Wed as shortwave energy lifts across SE canada.

Mon looks mostly dry as best instability remains to the west but
can't rule out a shower or t-storm in the west in the afternoon.

Then risk for a few showers t-storms increases Mon night into Tue as
moisture instability increase ahead of approaching shortwave. Risk
of showers may linger into Wed depending on timing of cold front but
this is uncertain.

Overall, warmer temps expected early next week but confidence is not
high in specific temp forecast and it is possible a weak backdoor
front could bring cooler temps. Large differences between GFS and
ecmwf for Tue with GFS showing major heat in the 90s while ECMWF has
boundary to the west with onshore flow and temps in the 60s. While
the ECMWF solution is not the likely scenario, it decreases
confidence in heat potential. Considerable temp differences continue
for Wed with ecwmf remaining on the cool side of the guidance.

Aviation 01z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... Moderate confidence.

Tonight ... Ifr-lifr redeveloping and spreading north across sne
with isolated to scattered shra. Lowest conditions along the
coast.

Thursday ...

ifr lifr during the morning in low clouds, fog and showers. Some
locales improve to MVFR during the afternoon. Embedded +shra
and possible tsra across interior s. New england. With any
activity could prompt brief lower conditions.

Thursday night... Mainly MVFR ifr, with showers and patchy fog.

Isolated thunderstorms possible.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf. Prior to 00z, MVFR
with periods ofVFR cigs. Expecting conditions tonight to
deteriorate to ifr with fog and shra, these conditions linger
thru thu.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Vfr this afternoon, with isolated showers possible. Conditions
deteriorate to ifr tonight with vcsh. Improvement to MVFR in
shra during thu.

Outlook Friday through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra.

Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight
chance shra.

Saturday night through Sunday night:VFR.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday night ... High confidence.

Tonight...

seas 1 to 3 feet with mainly SE winds 10 kts or less. Isolated
showers and areas of fog are expected to develop, locally dense
with visibility less than 1 2 mile.

Thursday...

showers become more numerous, with areas of fog. Visibility
will be reduced in areas of fog, especially during the morning
when visibility may be below 1 mile at times. Seas 2 to 4 ft,
with ese winds 10-15 kts.

Thursday night...

seas building to 3 to 5 feet on the southern outer waters. Wind
start out from the S SE at 10 to 20 kt, then back during the
overnight hours as low pressure crosses over the waters.

Outlook Friday through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday and Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance
of rain showers.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Kjc nmb
near term... Jwd
short term... Nmb
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc nmb
marine... Kjc nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 20 mi32 min 62°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 23 mi32 min SE 5.8 G 5.8 65°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi44 min SE 5.1 G 8.9 58°F 66°F1009 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 31 mi77 min SW 1.9 62°F 1010 hPa62°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 34 mi72 min SSE 9.7 G 12 56°F 2 ft1009.2 hPa (-1.0)56°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 40 mi44 min 62°F 63°F1009.1 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA2 mi70 minS 410.00 miOvercast57°F55°F96%1009.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA17 mi66 minSE 510.00 miOvercast60°F57°F90%1009 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA23 mi66 minSSE 510.00 miOvercast60°F60°F100%1009.7 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE3NE4NE5NE4NE4NE5NE5NE3NE5E4E4SE4E4SE5SE33S4SE4SE4SE43SE4S4S5
1 day agoS4CalmSW4SW5SW73SW5SW53SW4SE4SE6SE4SE3SE34SE533E5NE5E6E5NE4
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmW434NW64CalmNE8NE8NE4NE7NE64SE3SE5S4S3S3CalmSW3S3S3

Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Bay, Quonset Pont, Massachusetts
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Pleasant Bay
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Thu -- 04:15 AM EDT     3.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 11:30 AM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:51 PM EDT     3.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:59 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:40 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.32.23.13.53.42.92.41.81.20.5-0-00.41.22.22.832.82.421.510.5

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
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Thu -- 12:03 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:50 AM EDT     -1.74 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:57 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 07:59 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:34 AM EDT     2.14 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:43 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:25 PM EDT     -1.61 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:31 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:53 PM EDT     1.72 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 10:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0-1-1.6-1.7-1.5-0.9011.72.12.11.70.8-0.3-1.2-1.6-1.5-1.2-0.50.41.11.61.71.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.