Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Harwich, MA

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Sunrise 5:24AMSunset 8:09PM Sunday July 22, 2018 6:32 PM EDT (22:32 UTC) Moonrise 3:56PMMoonset 1:31AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 335 Pm Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late Monday night...
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Mon night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.
Tue night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 335 Pm Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Bermuda high builds back into the waters Monday through Thursday resulting in dominant S tropical flow. This prior to a cold front crossing the waters slowly on Friday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Harwich, MA
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location: 41.73, -70     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 222015
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
415 pm edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
A tropical airmass will remain entrenched across southern new
england for most of the upcoming work week. Showers and a few
thunderstorms are likely Monday. Tuesday and Wednesday will be
mainly dry, but there is a chance of showers or thunderstorms in
western sections. A cold front will be in the vicinity Wednesday
night through Friday, bringing better chances of showers and
storms. Slightly lower humidity possible next Saturday.

Near term until 6 am Monday morning
315 pm update...

just a few spot showers remained at mid afternoon, while the
rest of the region was mainly dry but humid. A southerly low
level jet 2-3 standard deviations above normal and some marginal
instability will remain in place through tonight. Most of our
high resolution guidance indicates scattered showers and a few
embedded thunderstorms increasing in areal coverage this evening
and into the overnight hours. This seems plausible given
magnitude of the low level jet and pwats over 2 inches.

In fact... Radar imagery indicating an area of showers off the nj
coast working northward. However... The big limiting factor is that
despite the anomalous low level jet pwat axis there is a lack
of synoptic scale forcing. So while we do expect an uptick in
activity... Uncertain on the areal coverage and intensity of any
showers embedded t-storms.

The overall severe weather threat remains low through tonight
given lack of synoptic scale forcing poor mid level lapse rates.

However... When ever your dealing with a southerly 25 to 35 knot
low level jet this time of year and 70+ dewpoints... The low
risk for an isolated severe thunderstorm very localized flash
flood event exists. So while a low probability... Something that
will have to be monitored through the night.

Most locations will only see overnight low temperatures in the
70 to 75 degree range given high dewpoints in place. Enough
mixing in the boundary layer should prevent widespread dense
fog... Although a bit of patchy fog is certainly possible.

Short term 6 am Monday morning through Monday night
Monday...

a tropical environment remains in place across southern new
england with the southerly LLJ pwats both 2+ standard deviations
above normal. The models indicate a bit better instability on
Monday with capes probably near 1000 j kg. Therefore... We expect
scattered showers and embedded t-storms with locally heavy
rainfall. Appears most of the activity will be near or northwest
of the boston to providence corridor as upper level ridge over
the atlantic begins to retrograde to the west.

The overall severe weather threat will remain low on Monday
given poor mid level lapse rates and lack of deep layer shear.

However... Given impressive low level jet and 70+ dewpoints an
isolated severe thunderstorm very localized flash flood event
can not be completely ruled out. High temperatures on Monday
will be well up into the 70s to the lower 80s... But it will be
very humid.

Monday night...

upper level ridge over the atlantic continues to retrograde west
Monday evening. This should bring an end to any
convection... Except perhaps for a few left over spot showers
across the interior. It will remain quite muggy though and
overnight lows will likely remain above 70 in most locations.

Long term Tuesday through Sunday
Tuesday...

strong high pressure ridge builds westward from the western
atlantic. Deep upper trough in the tennessee valley will
continue. The axis of rich, tropical moisture will be pushed to
our west with very dry air moving in above the moist surface
air. While this leads to some instability, the air should be too
dry through the column to procuce more than a stray shower in
central and eastern sections. But a scattered thunderstorm is
possible in western ma and a portion of northern ct, closest to
the moist axis. Expecting morning clouds giving way to partial
sunshine and highs in the mid 80s with sultry dewpoints of 72-75.

Wednesday...

not much change in the upper pattern, although the atlantic
ridge retreats slightly and the moist axis heads slighltly
farther east, extending into western ma and northern ct.

Expecting a partly cloudy day, with increasing clouds late.

Scattered showers and thunderstorm are possible, mainly in the
western half of southern new england. Still warm and very humid.

Wednesday night and Thursday...

the upper flow becomes more southwesterly, instead of
meridional. This allows a cold front to move slowly eastward
into southern new england. There is a high likelihood of showers
and some thunderstorms. Have added wording of locally heavy
rainfall during this time frame, since the axis of precipitable
waters above 2 inches will be over us again. There is some
potential for localized urban flooding, especially with any
repeat storms. High temperatures on Thursday may be held to the
upper 70s and lower 80s due to the cloud cover and
precipitation.

Thursday night and Friday...

a brief period of drying aloft moves in late Thursday night and
early Friday. But, the low levels remain very moist, with
dewpoints still in the lower 70s. Both the GFS and ECMWF show
a second frontal boundary... The real one... Approaching from the
west Friday afternoon. Skies should be partly sunny, allowing
temperatures to climb into the upper 80s. Both models predict
the atmosphere to be very unstable, with high capes and an axis
of high k indices approaching from the west. GFS is 6-12 hours
faster than the ecmwf. Unlike previous days, the mid-level lapse
rates may be favorable for convection. If the axis approaches
at the time of maximum heating Friday afternoon, scattered
strong isolated severe thunderstorms would be possible, despite
relatively weak wind fields aloft.

Saturday...

possibly some lowering humidity values, especially in western
sections. Otherwise, southwest flow aloft and at the surface
continues. Expecting partly sunny skies a just a slight chance
of a shower. Highs in the 80s.

Aviation 20z Sunday through Friday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

tonight into Monday... Moderate confidence. MVFR conditions
should dominate tonight into Monday with scattered showers and
a few embedded thunderstorms. Localized ifr conditions will also
be possible and some areas will improve toVFR at times.

Overall... Expect a wide variety of conditions possible over this
time with MVFR conditions dominating.

Monday night... Moderate confidence. Mainly dry weather expected
with MVFR conditions likely dominating.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Tuesday night: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Slight chance
shra, isolated tsra.

Wednesday: mainly MVFR, with areasVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Breezy.

Shra likely, chance tsra.

Thursday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra. Locally heavy rainfall.

Thursday night: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Friday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Chance shra, slight
chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday night ...

tonight through Monday night... High confidence. Persistent south
to southeast flow will result in wind gusts around or just over
20 knots at times. Seas will slowly diminish through Monday
night but remain at or above small craft thresholds for most of
our outer-waters. Scattered showers and patches of fog will also
reduce visibility for mariners at times.

Outlook Tuesday through Friday ...

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance
of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for maz020-
022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Tuesday for anz235-237-250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Frank field
near term... Frank
short term... Frank
long term... Field
aviation... Frank field
marine... Frank field


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 19 mi63 min 67°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi23 min SSE 16 G 19 73°F 73°F1020.2 hPa71°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 30 mi48 min 4.1 74°F 1020 hPa72°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi33 min SE 8 G 12 72°F 73°F1020.7 hPa (+0.4)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 34 mi43 min SE 16 G 18 67°F 4 ft1020 hPa (+0.0)67°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 38 mi33 min 74°F 71°F1019.7 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA2 mi41 minSSE 8 G 165.00 miRain Fog/Mist70°F68°F93%1021.2 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA15 mi37 minSSE 1010.00 miLight Rain74°F71°F91%1020 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi37 minS 12 G 2110.00 miFair74°F71°F91%1020.2 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E5E6E6E6E8E7E7E7E8E9E9SE9
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1 day ago3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4E4E6E8S7E7E76SE8E8E8E8E6
2 days agoNE4CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SE4SE6SE5SE7SE7SE86S6Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Bay, Quonset Pont, Massachusetts
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Pleasant Bay
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Sun -- 01:30 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:05 AM EDT     0.10 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:24 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 10:18 AM EDT     2.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT     0.27 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 10:41 PM EDT     3.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
2.72.31.81.10.40.10.30.91.72.52.82.82.52.31.91.40.70.30.40.91.72.53.13.2

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:31 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:16 AM EDT     1.99 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:25 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:12 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 09:08 AM EDT     -1.53 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:06 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:42 PM EDT     1.92 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:35 PM EDT     -1.66 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.31.11.721.91.20.2-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.4-0.9-0.10.71.41.81.91.50.6-0.4-1.2-1.6-1.6-1.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.