Tuesday, October23, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Harwich, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:48PM Tuesday October 23, 2018 12:07 PM EDT (16:07 UTC) Moonrise 5:43PMMoonset 5:36AM Illumination 99% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 1039 Am Edt Tue Oct 23 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through Wednesday morning...
This afternoon..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 10 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 7 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 6 ft, subsiding to 4 ft in the afternoon.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 35 kt, increasing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 6 ft, building to 11 ft in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Sat night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas around 14 ft, building to 16 ft after midnight. A chance of rain. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1039 Am Edt Tue Oct 23 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will track across southern new england today before heading to the gulf of maine tonight. High pres will build E from the great lakes Wed into Fri, then retreat N on Sat. A nor'easter approaches later Sat passing se of nantucket Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Harwich, MA
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location: 41.73, -70     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231400
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1000 am edt Tue oct 23 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure moving through new england will bring showers today,
especially to northern massachusetts, before it heads offshore
tonight. Another surge of unseasonably chilly air moves into the
region Thursday and Friday. A significant coastal storm may impact
the region this weekend with heavy rainfall and strong coastal
winds, with some wet snow or mixed precipitation possible in the
interior.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

widespread rain with embedded heavier showers, possibly some gusty
winds and rumbles of thunder. Can't rule out graupel as well. Main
potent vortmax to sweep the region later this afternoon already
initiating convective activity out over the E great lakes. Strong
forward ascent in an unstable environment with steep lapse rates
per latest rap model forecast soundings, deep moisture plume,
beneath the left front quadrant of an attendant upper level jet,
altogether no surprise to see convective indices exceeding their
respective thresholds (i.E., total totals above 50) and elevated
cape of around a couple hundred j kg.

Deep layer ascent with any outcomes, could see a quick half an
inch of rainfall. Both 0-6 km bulk shear and mean wind parallel
to one another out of sw, uni-directional shear profiles, can't
not disagree with SPC general thunder threat and concern over
some gusty winds with heavier showers isolated thunderstorms.

Outcomes entirely possible along and N of the attendant warm
front likely to become hung up around the ma-pike as the parent
surface low to the sweeping vortmax sweeps through. Elevated
convection possible above the shallow surface inversion.

Destabilization is key. Present broken deck of mid-layer cloud
decks. Seeing some breaks. But already the cyclonic curving
vortmax is already at work breaking out widespread rainfall over
the mid-hudson valley of ny. Should see outcomes expand towards
the early afternoon hours, the first batch through by the end of
the pm commute, possibly a second sweeping batch of showers into
evening along the sweeping cold front as the surface low ejects
out over the gulf of me.

Consensus of high-res guidance with latest forecasts, hrrr and
href especially.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Wednesday
Low pressure exits quickly into gulf of maine this evening, taking
most of showers with it. Model cross sections show plenty of lingering
low and mid level moisture so expect cloudiness to remain locked
in. Lows drop back into upper 30s NW to lower 40s farther S and e.

Upper low crosses northern new england wed. Unseasonably cold air
aloft will maintain diurnal clouds and perhaps a sprinkle, but
expect most if not all of precipitation to remain to our N in
closer proximity to upper low. Main concern will be gusty nw
winds as mixing layer deepens, with 25-35 mph gusts expected
most of day.

Highs top out in 40s to near 50, with warmest temperatures across se
new england.

Long term Wednesday night through Monday
Highlights...

* dry weather with below normal temps Thu fri
* rain and coastal wind Sat with some mixed precip possible interior
* unsettled with showers at times Sun mon
Wednesday night into Friday...

blustery and colder weather Wed night and Thu as deep mid level
trough east of new eng slowly lift north, then diminishing wind by
fri as high pres builds over new eng. Dry weather through the period
with below normal temps.

Saturday through Monday...

mid level trough undergoes significant amplification over the
eastern us as series of shortwaves dive into the mean trough. Models
signaling a coastal storm emerging off the mid atlc coast and
tracking ne. Lots of moving parts with several shortwaves rotating
through the trough so still uncertainty regarding timing, intensity
and track of this storm. Ensemble guidance from GEFS and eps
indicate wet period Sat into sun, with potential for some heavy
rainfall sat. However, if GFS is correct there is enough cold air in
the column for some snow accumulation in parts of the interior on
sat, while ECMWF is mostly rain with just a bit of snow sleet at the
onset. GFS and ECMWF both indicate 50-60 kt easterly low level jet
so also the potential for strong winds along the coast. Timing is
uncertain but latest guidance is highlighting Sat for the strongest
winds. Astronomical tides are a bit elevated this weekend so if the
easterly jet verifies, some minor coastal flood issues would be
possible.

Lots of spread with respect to low position on Sun but unsettled
weather expected Sun Mon as mid level trough axis remains west of
new eng with multiple shortwaves moving into the region.

Aviation 14z Tuesday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Today...

vfr with mid-level CIGS this morning. Lowering towards early
afternoon with widespread -ra ra with embedded +ra and lower
risk tsra. Possible 24020g30kt with +ra tsra, even small hail
not out of the question. Tempo MVFR-ifr also possible with
+ra tsra threat. S winds overall with mixed winds around the ma
turnpike, N up into nh.

Tonight...

winds shifting nw, blustery. Sct-bkn low-endVFR CIGS with
spotty MVFR and showers coming to an end overnight.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy.

Wednesday night through Friday:VFR. Breezy.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with
local gusts to 30 kt. Chance fzra, slight chance ra.

Saturday: mainly MVFR, with localVFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts to 40 kt. Chance ra, fzra likely.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Wednesday ... High confidence.

Increasing S SE winds today and building seas as warm front lifts
into ct, ri, and SE ma. Small craft advisories posted for all but
boston harbor and narragansett bay into tonight, before winds and
seas subside briefly. Low pressure heads to gulf of maine tonight,
followed by high pressure Wednesday. Winds shift to W NW tonight and
increase on Wednesday, with 25-30kt gusts expected on all
waters.

Outlook Wednesday night through Saturday ...

Wednesday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Wednesday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Thursday through Thursday night: low risk for small craft
advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 30 kt. Chance of rain.

Saturday: moderate risk for gale force winds with gusts up to
40 kt. Areas of rough seas. Rain likely.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to midnight edt
tonight for anz232-233.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 pm edt this
evening for anz231.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to midnight edt
tonight for anz235-237-251.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 8 am edt
Wednesday for anz250-254>256.

Synopsis... Kjc jwd
near term... Kjc sipprell jwd
short term... Jwd
long term... Kjc
aviation... Kjc sipprell jwd
marine... Kjc jwd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 19 mi37 min 57°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi27 min SE 16 G 18 55°F 58°F1019.3 hPa49°F
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 30 mi82 min 2.9 54°F 1020 hPa47°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi37 min SE 9.9 G 15 56°F 52°F1019.4 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 34 mi77 min SE 16 G 18 52°F 1020.1 hPa (-1.1)39°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 38 mi37 min 55°F 57°F1018.7 hPa

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA2 mi15 minSE 7 G 1510.00 miPartly Cloudy55°F46°F74%1019.9 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA15 mi11 minSE 910.00 miOvercast56°F48°F75%1018.8 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi11 minSSE 910.00 miOvercast54°F45°F72%1019.6 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW76
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W8SW75CalmCalmCalmNW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE4SE56SE8SE7
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6W5SW3W4SW3CalmCalmW3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm346
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Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Bay, Quonset Pont, Massachusetts
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Pleasant Bay
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Tue -- 01:10 AM EDT     3.26 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 08:10 AM EDT     0.11 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 01:31 PM EDT     3.38 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:33 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.93.33.12.72.21.71.10.50.10.30.91.82.73.33.32.92.41.91.30.60.10.10.51.4

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:47 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:15 AM EDT     2.18 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:18 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:03 PM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 03:10 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 05:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:46 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:33 PM EDT     2.15 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 09:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-1.5-0.80.21.21.92.22.11.40.4-0.8-1.7-1.9-1.7-1.1-0.20.81.72.12.11.70.7-0.4-1.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.