Monday, May20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
East Harwich, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:15AMSunset 7:59PM Monday May 20, 2019 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:56PMMoonset 6:42AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ254 Coastal Waters From Provincetown Ma To Chatham Ma To Nantucket Ma Out 20 Nm- 406 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Areas of fog. Scattered showers, mainly this evening. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 4 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 8 ft.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 8 ft, subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds around 5 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 4 ft, building to 6 ft after midnight. A chance of showers.
Fri..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 6 to 7 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sat night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 5 ft. A chance of showers. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 406 Pm Edt Mon May 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. As low pres moves E of southern quebec, it will drag a cold front across the waters tonight. Low pres will continue to intensify Tue as it moves E across the canadian maritimes, resulting in a period of strong nw wind gusts to the near shore waters. High pres then builds in from the W Tue night and Wed before moving E of the waters Wed night and Thu. Low pres then may track across the waters late Thu into early Fri, with brief high pres following later on Fri before shifting E of the waters on Sat. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near East Harwich, MA
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location: 41.73, -70     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 201948
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
348 pm edt Mon may 20 2019

Synopsis
Warm, summer-like day ahead of a sweeping cold front this afternoon
into evening with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some of which may be strong to severe. Dry, cool air building in
overnight. Seasonable weather with windy conditions Tuesday. Dry
weather continues Wednesday into Thursday with less wind, then
a period of showers will likely impact the region sometime late
Thursday into early Friday. Summer like warmth may return by the
end of next weekend.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
4 pm update ...

* highlights ...

- isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
- strong to severe threat expected to be very isolated, if any
- biggest threat of strong to damaging winds with any strong to severe
- exiting this evening
* discussion ...

now (4 pm update) ...

isolated to scattered showers have developed, struggling to mature
further into thunderstorms with decent reflectivity above -10c given
marginal lapse rates aloft and pronounced dry air above h7. With any
updrafts, more than likely they are being choked off, keeping activity
low-topped. Despite the instability and effective shear, confident
that we'll not see widespread strong to severe, rather very isolated.

Perhaps lift along the sweeping cold front will push storms higher,
in an environment of sw-ne uni-directional shear yielding a potential
strong to severe wind threat along with heavy rain, frequent lightning.

But low confidence. Href and especially nssl WRF have the right trends
in mind with isolated to scattered activity, some of it multi-cellular
mini-clusters given the environment and anticipated pulsing storm-mode.

Will hold with severe thunderstorm watch 198 for the time-being, see
if something gets going. Likely a pulse will go up here and there,
then come down, and with the model forecast inverted-v soundings,
could see some localized wind damage.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Tuesday night
Tuesday into Tuesday night ...

cool, dry airmass in place. Scattered cloud decks developing as
the boundary layer becomes well mixed with highs getting up to
around 70 degrees. Momentum mix down along with drier air,
looking at dewpoints in the 30s and NW wind gusts up around 20
to 25 mph. Should winds subside during the evening and overnight
periods, then perhaps radiational cooling could proceed,
especially over N W ma and ct sheltered valleys allowing
temperatures to drop into the upper 30s.

Long term Wednesday through Monday
Highlights...

* dry and pleasant Wed into Thu with less wind
* a period of showers possible late Thu into early fri
* summer like warmth may return next Sunday-Monday
details...

Wednesday...

pleasant day Wednesday as surface high pressure moves in with a
building ridge at the mid levels. Winds come down from Tuesday and
should be light with a relaxed pressure gradient. Plenty of Sun to
be had, and high temperatures expected to climb into the upper 60s.

Thursday and Friday...

Thursday will be mostly dry as the ridge axis crosses southern new
england, but our next shot of rain comes late in the day through the
overnight hours. A shortwave riding over the ridge moves through
Thursday night bringing increased moisture in the form of clouds
during the day Thursday, and increasing risk of showers Thursday
evening through at least early Friday. Ahead of the low, pwats top
1.5" with plenty of low level forcing given a 35-40kt LLJ at 925mb.

System moves off to the southeast and rain comes to an end later
Friday. Placement of the low over sne or just to the east will bring
easterly winds Friday and cooler than average temps in the low 60s
(50s along the coast).

Saturday through Monday...

behind Friday's departing system we see building high pressure and
the return of mid level ridging. This should lead to a dry and sunny
Saturday before a low over qc swings a cold front through Saturday
night into Sunday bringing another chance of rain. Uncertainty
increases for the far extended forecast, but trends are toward a
warmer and mostly dry forecast late Sunday into Monday under
building high pressure. Temps look to reach into the 70s each day.

Aviation 20z Monday through Saturday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

Today and tonight...

low-endVFR sct-bkn cigs. Few-sct shra, lower threat tsra, so will
not make any mention and keep with vcsh. With any -ra ra, localized
MVFR 010-030 possible. Otherwise, winds around 20015g20kt. Improving
1z-6z especially along the S se-coast. W NW winds at around 28015g25kt,
strongest along the high terrain.

Tuesday into Tuesday night ...

vfr. Sct 040. NW sustained 15 to 20 kts, highest gusts around 30 kts,
strongest along the high terrain. Winds diminishing evening and
overnight.

Kbos terminal...

few-sct shra threat, lower risk tsra through 1z.

Kbdl terminal...

few-sct shra threat, lower risk tsra through 0z.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday:VFR. Breezy.

Wednesday night:VFR.

Thursday:VFR. Breezy. Chance shra.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, isolated tsra.

Friday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Windy with local
gusts up to 30 kt. Slight chance shra.

Friday night:VFR.

Saturday:VFR. Chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Tuesday night ... High confidence.

4 pm update ...

today...

sw winds sustained around 15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Seas of
3 to 6 feet. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
approaching the waters towards evening. Keep with present small
craft headlines, dropping boston harbor and massachusetts bay
with the expectation of remaining just below criteria.

Tonight...

isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along a sweeping
cold front. Some could be strong, especially for the e-waters off
of ma. Frequent lightning. SW winds continuing with sustained around
15 kts, gusts around 20 kts, backing out of the NW behind the cold
front pushing through this evening. Seas around 3 to 6 feet. Maybe
some renewed fog along the S SE coast before the cold front sweeps
through.

Tuesday into Tuesday night ...

breezy NW winds. Gusts up to 30 kts possible over the E waters.

Can't rule out attendant wave heights 5-7 feet.

Outlook Wednesday through Saturday ...

Wednesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Wednesday night: winds less than 25 kt.

Thursday: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance
of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Tuesday for anz231>237-250.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Wednesday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Sipprell bw
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Bw
aviation... Sipprell bw
marine... Sipprell bw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44090 19 mi46 min 52°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 22 mi36 min SSW 18 G 19 54°F1007.3 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 30 mi61 min WNW 5.1 66°F 1007 hPa60°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 31 mi46 min SW 9.9 G 17 62°F 58°F1008 hPa (-1.9)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 34 mi56 min SSW 19 G 21 61°F 2 ft1004.5 hPa (-3.1)56°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 38 mi46 min 58°F 56°F1006.8 hPa (-2.3)

Wind History for Nantucket Island, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chatham, Chatham Municipal Airport, MA2 mi54 minSSW 9 G 208.00 miFair63°F57°F81%1007.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA15 mi50 minSSW 1210.00 miFair70°F59°F68%1006.5 hPa
Provincetown Municipal Airport, MA22 mi50 minSSW 19 G 2610.00 miFair and Breezy68°F60°F76%1005.3 hPa

Wind History from CQX (wind in knots)
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1 day agoE84S4CalmSE3SE4SE4SE5S4334S445S8S7
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2 days agoSW7SW8SW6S7S6SW6SW7SW6SW45NW73NW3CalmNW5NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Pleasant Bay, Quonset Pont, Massachusetts (2)
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Pleasant Bay
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Mon -- 03:07 AM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:15 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:41 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 10:28 AM EDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:44 PM EDT     3.44 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:55 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:38 PM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.53.53.93.83.32.61.80.90.1-0.3-0.20.41.42.53.33.43.22.72.11.30.60.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Pollock Rip Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Pollock Rip Channel
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:45 AM EDT     -1.93 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 04:52 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 05:16 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:42 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:25 AM EDT     2.30 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 11:30 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 02:16 PM EDT     -1.81 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:22 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:45 PM EDT     1.96 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:54 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:40 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.2-1.8-1.9-1.6-0.90.11.21.92.32.21.70.6-0.6-1.4-1.8-1.7-1.2-0.40.61.41.91.91.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.