Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bourne, MA

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Sunrise 5:25AMSunset 8:10PM Sunday July 22, 2018 8:46 AM EDT (12:46 UTC) Moonrise 3:58PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Isolated tstms. Numerous showers this morning, then scattered showers this afternoon. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm this afternoon.
Tonight..SE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Showers likely. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu..S winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pressure steering nw towards the great lakes region out ahead of which near gale force S winds will yield increased wave and surf action along with showers and Thunderstorms. Bermuda high builds back into the waters Monday through Thursday resulting in dominant S tropical flow. This prior to a sweeping cold front on Friday. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bourne, MA
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location: 41.74, -70.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 221154
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
754 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Synopsis
Low pressure with tropical moisture steering NW across the ne
conus with its attending warm front sweeping new england into
today. This setup will bring showers and thunderstorms with
torrential downpours and gusty winds. Bermuda high pressure then
builds west toward southern new england next week bringing
tropical humidity and warm temperatures. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be around most of the week, although a little
more difficult to come by on Tuesday. A cold front crosses new
england Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
8 am update...

* right now...

atmospheric river of tropical rains funneling into S new england.

Observations of 1-2" hr rainfall rates either derived via dual-
pol radar or from various networks, as 50 mph SE winds race roughly
2 kft agl. As such, flood advisories posted across the interior
while special marine warnings have been issued over the waters,
the latter of which has verified well from various ASOS reporting
brief wind gusts in excess of gale-force. The ribbon of rainfall
and associated moisture expected to evolve s-n over the e-half
of new england towards noon, the concern over the pvd-bos urban
corridor for flash flooding potential. Torrential rainfall,again,
the greatest threat with this system, the potential to dump
over any one area just given how rich and moist the atmosphere
is aloft, like a completely soaked sponge which if wrung out via
updraft motions, would definitely inundate any one particular
region. An eye on dual-pol kdp, looking for higher values that
are indicative of larger raindrops.

Effective helicity, especially within the 0-1 km layer, as mixed-
layer CAPE instability sneaks into s-shoreline new england per
spc mesoanalysis. An eye on the radar for any rotation, the
expectation of the threat diminishing through the morning given
subtle synoptic forcing, rising heights in association with a
building ridge to the e, however the threat of destabilization
to the w, scattered showers and thunderstorms possible with any
instability released within such a tropical soupy environment.

Some remnant shear, while torrential rains on the forefront of
the mind, can't rule out a gusty wind wet microburst threat.

* highlights...

- rain band with pockets of torrential rainfall isolated t'storms
- main concern: localized flash flooding, especially urban centers
- otherwise: low risk for a severe t'storm or two
- high surf dangerous rip currents along the S coast
* take-aways...

bands of showers embedded thunderstorms through this afternoon.

Torrential rainfall and localized urban flash flooding remains
the biggest concern, but the low risk continues for an isolated
severe thunderstorm or two with the potential of producing
damaging winds, not ruling out the very low threat of a brief
tornadic waterspout spin-up.

* overview...

anomalous precipitable water and low-level jet axes will focus S to
n across areas of S new england early this morning and much of the
day. A tropical environment any nudge upon which, whether low-level
convergent wind driven and or destabilizing, undoubtedly will yield
torrential rainfall and the threat of localized flash flooding. That
is our main concern given a forecast band of rain with pockets of
heavier rain, 1-2" hr rainfall rates, and embedded thunderstorms. A
deep s-n moist axis with a significantly deep warm column signaling
efficient rainfall processes, unclear exactly where this will setup
however concern across urban corridors given the potential of seeing
over 2-3 inches if not more in a short period of time. Uncertainty,
no flash flood watch will be hoisted with this event, handle threats
with short-fused advisory warning products. Watching closely any
training elements.

Otherwise, a low risk continues for an isolated severe thunderstorm
or two with the potential of producing damaging winds, as well as
the very low threat of a tornadic waterspout spin-up. High shear,
low instability environment as well as the potential for terrain-
induced circulations, while a very low probability, the threat is
there with any thunderstorms that will bear watching. Expect threats
to extend through today given potential daytime destabilization and
subtle synoptic forcing, noting that behind the warm front is a mid-
level dry slot with lower k-indices. Focus upon the s-n deep, moist
environment, conditionally unstable, where wet microbursts will be
possible in addition to heavy rain mixing down faster winds aloft to
the surface.

Lastly, wind and wave action associated with such an anomalous setup
a high surf advisory continues for s-coastal ocean exposed beaches,
cape and islands included, today. Persistent strong S winds with
gusts up around 30 mph yielding s-coastal 6 to 9 foot seas, there's
the potential for high surf dangerous rip currents on these ocean
exposed beaches.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Monday
Unsettled, tropical environment continues, pushed W per a building
atlantic h5 ridge. Rising heights, subsidence and drier air rotate
clockwise round the ridge of high pressure into new england shunting
the deep tropically moist and anomalous low-level wind axes w, again
any nudge upon which should induce scattered shower thunderstorm
activity along with pockets of heavy rain. Downward trend indicative
in model forecast k indices. Localized flash flood threat continues
with concern for urban corridors. Otherwise muggy. Will continue to
experience oppressive humidity with 70+ dewpoints as temperatures
remain mild overnight, warming into the 80s Monday.

Long term Monday night through Saturday
Big picture...

ridges over the west atlantic and western usa frame a deep trough
over the eastern usa. Upper flow is very meridional early to mid
week. The northern jet stream then nudges south late week, bringing
a more zonal component to the flow over the north-central and
northeast usa. This will eventually allow a cold front to sweep over
new england toward the end of the week.

Contour heights will be above normal through the period. Thermal
fields will be above normal through the period. This suggests warm
temperatures when there is any sunshine, with temperatures cooler
but still near normal where skies are cloudy.

Model mass fields are in good agreement through Tuesday, then the
ggem becomes an outlier while the GFS and ECMWF remain similar
through Friday, and only slightly diverge on Saturday. Forecast
confidence is high through most of the week and moderate-high for
Saturday.

Concerns...

drying period...

upper ridge builds west early in the week, reaching its farthest
extent west on Tuesday. Surface flow remains southerly through this
period, so no break in the sultry air. But the 2 inch-plus
precipitable water values shift west across the mid atlantic and ny
state while values over our area are around 1.5 inches... Still
moist. Rh cross sections show dry air will move in above 850 mb,
limiting the ability of convection to build deep. Lift will also be
minimal, especially in ri eastern ma. This may allow for some
sunshine, especially in eastern areas, and limit the development of
showers. Best chance for any showers would be in the ct valley and
areas west of there. The ridge moves back to the east Wednesday,
allowing the two-inch pw values and deep moisture back over new
england later Wednesday and Wednesday night.

Tropical flow...

even with the atlantic ridge building west early week, the low level
flow remains out of the south and will maintain very humid
conditions with dew points expected to linger in the low to mid 70s.

Once the ridge shifts east, deep moisture returns... And the southwest
flow ahead of the canadian shortwave will continue to draw warm
very humid air into our area for Thursday.

Away from the suppressing effect of the ridge, and with CAPE of 1500
j kg moving in from ny, expect broader area of showers and scattered
thunder on Thursday.

Cold front Friday...

canadian shortwave will move across the great lakes later
Thursday Thursday night sweeping a cold front into the northeast on
Friday. By Friday afternoon much of southern new england is in the
right entrance region of the supporting upper jet. Lift is favored
in this airmass with CAPE of 1500-2000 j kg and mid-level lapse
rates of 6-6.5 c km. This should favor showers tstms along and ahead
of the cold front. But even after the front moves through, warm
humid weather will linger on Saturday.

Aviation 12z Sunday through Thursday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

mostly ifr-lifr prevailing with respect to CIGS and vsbys. A band
of -ra with embedded ra +ra elements, lower risk tsra. Pushing into
e new england this morning, shifting back w, diminishing by afternoon
however sct activity may emerge with any available sunshine. Lower
confidence trends, may improve in some areas MVFR to low-endVFR
while some terminals remain in the soup. S winds prevailing,
strongest gusts along the s-shore upwards of 30 kts, can't rule
out 40 kt gusts with +ra. Llws for this morning over E new england,
roughly 40 kts 2 kft agl.

Tonight into Monday...

sct -ra ra elements, possible embedded +ra tsra. Continued MVFR-
lifr threats with respect to CIGS and vsbys. May see an improving
trend E to W especially on Monday, conditions lifting to low-end
vfr and -ra ra concluding. Greater focus of -ra and lower conditions
shifting towards the ct river valley.

Kbos terminal...

looking at roughly a 13-17z timeframe of worst conditions with
ra +ra elements, potential embedded tsra. Due to isolated to
scattered nature of tsra, will forego any mention in the TAF for now.

Kbdl terminal...

ra moving out, focus for afternoon with any partial clearing,
potential for CIGS to lift low-endVFR. With that, possibility
of sct ra +ra, perhaps tsra for the afternoon period with tempo
ifr-lifr impacts. Will amend TAF if so accordingly.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday: MVFR ifr conditions possible. Breezy. Chance shra,
isolated tsra.

Monday night: mainly ifr, with areasVFR possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Tuesday: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy. Chance
shra.

Tuesday night: mainlyVFR, with areas ifr possible. Chance
shra, patchy br.

Wednesday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Wednesday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Breezy.

Chance shra, slight chance tsra, patchy br.

Thursday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Monday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

anomalous S low level jet will allow seas to build across our
s waters to between 5 and 10 feet across our open waters today.

This a result of E SE gusts 20 to 30 kts. Already 7-8 foot seas
being reported S of W long island with such gusty winds.

Rain, heavy at times, with embedded thunderstorms through the
morning hours, continuing along a s-n band into afternoon
especially over the e-half of new england. Lower visibility in
addition to fog over the waters.

Sunday night into Monday...

atlantic high building back W overnight into Monday, wind gusts
should diminish slightly as drier weather builds in over the
waters from the e. This will allow conditions in the inner-
waters to subside, however seas will remain heightened over the
outer waters resulting in small crafts to continue.

Outlook Monday night through Thursday ...

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Areas fog,
slight chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Tuesday through Tuesday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Wednesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Wednesday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Thursday: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for maz020-
022>024.

Ri... High surf advisory until 7 pm edt this evening for riz006>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Monday for anz230>234-251.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Monday for anz236.

Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Monday for anz235-237-250-
254>256.

Synopsis... Wtb sipprell
near term... Sipprell
short term... Sipprell
long term... Wtb
aviation... Wtb sipprell
marine... Wtb sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi62 min 6 74°F 1018 hPa73°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 15 mi29 min 76°F 70°F1017.4 hPa
44090 16 mi47 min 70°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 24 mi37 min SE 19 G 23 73°F 1017.7 hPa71°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 29 mi35 min 76°F 75°F1017.2 hPa
FRXM3 30 mi29 min 75°F 72°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 30 mi29 min SSE 22 G 33 75°F 1016.9 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 33 mi47 min SSE 24 G 27 69°F 1017.3 hPa (+0.8)
PRUR1 38 mi35 min 73°F 71°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi35 min SSW 6 G 12 72°F 1016.8 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi62 min SSE 8.9 74°F 1016 hPa73°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi29 min SSE 27 G 29 73°F 76°F1016.6 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 41 mi35 min S 14 G 18 69°F 68°F1017 hPa
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 41 mi57 min E 14 G 16 67°F 3 ft1018.8 hPa (-0.0)67°F
PVDR1 41 mi29 min S 26 G 33 74°F 1016.6 hPa72°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi35 min S 25 G 38 73°F 74°F1016.3 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 42 mi35 min SE 7 G 19 72°F 73°F1018.2 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 42 mi57 min E 16 G 19 68°F 68°F3 ft1017.5 hPa (-0.5)68°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 44 mi29 min S 18 G 22 70°F 74°F1017.3 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 48 mi35 min 67°F 1017.4 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi52 minSE 127.00 miOvercast73°F73°F100%1018.3 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA13 mi55 minESE 69.00 miOvercast71°F71°F100%1018 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi51 minSE 7 G 172.00 miFog/Mist72°F70°F94%1018 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi54 minSE 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast75°F75°F100%1016.8 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi54 minSE 16 G 258.00 miOvercast73°F72°F96%1017.2 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi55 minSE 11 G 1710.00 miOvercast74°F72°F94%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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--
1 day agoNW3CalmSE4CalmS10SE11SE11SE11SE7S6S7SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE5NE4SE8
2 days agoN7N6NE96
G11
E7
G12
4
G10
N7E7E6SE8SE6SE4SE3SE3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Buzzards Bay Entrance, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:48 AM EDT     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 01:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 05:44 AM EDT     3.00 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:04 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:58 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:27 PM EDT     3.89 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.2-00.51.52.42.932.72.11.61.41.10.70.40.71.62.63.43.83.83.32.61.91.4

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Sun -- 01:33 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 03:02 AM EDT     3.87 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 05:27 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 06:13 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:56 AM EDT     -4.04 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 12:11 PM EDT     0.18 knots Slack
Sun -- 03:28 PM EDT     3.85 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 03:57 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:37 PM EDT     -0.15 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:10 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:25 PM EDT     -4.16 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.333.73.93.73.11.4-2.7-3.7-4-3.7-2.9-1.22.53.43.83.83.42.3-1.9-3.5-4.1-4.1-3.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.