Friday, June23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bourne, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:05AMSunset 8:21PM Friday June 23, 2017 4:42 PM EDT (20:42 UTC) Moonrise 4:51AMMoonset 7:50PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 353 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Areas of fog. Isolated showers and tstms this evening, then scattered showers and tstms after midnight. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog. Showers and scattered tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Sat night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 353 Pm Edt Fri Jun 23 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A cold front will approach the waters from the west tonight while the remnants of tropical storm cindy approach from the southwest. The cold front will sweep across the waters Saturday afternoon and behind it drier and less humid air will follow into Wed. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bourne, MA
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location: 41.74, -70.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 231950
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
350 pm edt Fri jun 23 2017

Synopsis
Mild, humid air continues into tonight out ahead of the
remnants of cindy which will bring the threat of heavy rain and
possible flooding Saturday morning. A cold front will sweep the
remnants of cindy out to sea through late Saturday, improving
overnight. Seasonably warm and less humid conditions Sunday
will be followed by cooler weather and few diurnally driven
showers isolated thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. A return to
summerlike warmth and humidity is expected by the end of the
work week.

Near term until midnight tonight
400 pm update...

clearing skies early this afternoon has resulted in CAPE values
increasing to over 2000 j kg. This combined with shear values of 30-
35 kts and low level lapse rates near 8 c km has resulted in a few
scattered showers. Current dynamics and SPC meso-analysis indicates
that the main risk could be heavy rain and gusty winds. Skinny cape
and inverted v soundings would also indicate the potential for wet
microburst. While most of the region will remain dry this afternoon,
the risk for isolated showers will continue through the evening.

While risk is low, cannot rule out a quick spin-up as dewpoints are
in the 70s. However appears the better helicity and 0-1 km shear
will be southwest of the area. Something to watch over the next few
hours.

While it is difficult to pin where exactly and strong storm will
develop, believe the ct valley will be the area to watch over the
next few hours, ESP with the help of the terrain.

This evening...

warm, moist southwest flow will continue across the region this
evening into the overnight hours. Pwat values are increasing to 2
inches as tropical airmass continues to pool into southern new
england. Biggest question is shower potential for this evening.

Increasing LLJ at 925 mb as well as lingering instability should be
enough will to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms across
the region. This is support in the hi-res guidance and the latest
hrrr.

Otherwise a muggy evening is on tap for the region as dewpoints
remaining in the 70s. Will have to watch for fog develop along the
south coast.

Short term midnight through 6 pm Saturday
After midnight into Saturday...

*** increasing localized flood potential for southern new england ***
active weather pattern for tonight and for the first half of tomorrow
as southern new england remains in the warm sector for this period.

Overnight lows will remain mild, dropping into the upper 60s to low
70s. This may result in another round of fog and stratus with the
highest confidence across the south coast once again. May need to
watch for a possible dense fog advisory as surface dewpoints will
be in the 70s. Muggy to start the day tomorrow but depending on how
quickly the front will push through, the later half of the day will
begin to improve. Highs will remain in the mid 80s.

Biggest focus is on precipitation potential for this time period.

Increasing moisture will begin to pool into the area with pwat values
increasing to above 2.5 inches by tonight. This tropical moisture
from cindy will push pwat near 3 to 4 std above normal. In fact,
moisture flux values at 850 mb during this timeframe is nearing
4 std above normal. Thus within any heavy shower, the potential
for flooding rains is possible.

Models are struggling with the placement of the axis of heavy
precipitation as there are several features to note. Aside from the
approaching front out west, a LLJ will be across the southeast
portion of the area. However, the higher instability values will be
across the western half of the area. If both of these features
could align, then we could see widespread heavy rainfall. But
because there is some separation, believe that the threat is more
localized. Again the heavy rainfall axis amongst the guidance are
in different locations, but there is agreement that the potential
for over 1.5 to 2 inches. If this falls in just a few hours, then
flash flooding is possible. Best timing for this to occur will be
after midnight and into Saturday morning.

Cold front will begin to sweep through the region on Saturday.

The latest hi-res guidance is a lot slower than synoptic models so
have blended the forecast down the middle. More widespread showers
and embedded thunderstorms are anticipated along the frontal
passage. Convection along the front continues to be a possibility
especially across eastern ma during the late morning hours. Cape
values will be near 1000 j kg with 40 kts of 0-6 km shear. The
caveat is poor lapse rates and the bulk of the moisture will be
pushing offshore. One thing to watch for is the potential for a
quick spin-up thanks to the tropical airmass with 70f dewpoints and
lower lcls. Hodographs do show some helicity and good 0-1 km shear.

The frontal system should push through by Saturday afternoon
resulting in clearing skies and drier air as westerly flow takes
hold.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
Highlights...

* seasonably warm less humid Sun with a spot shower t-storm possible
* a few showers iso t-storms possible Mon Tue but not a washout
* below normal temps Mon Tue return to summerlike readings Thu fri
details...

Saturday night...

dry and a much less humid airmass will work into the region behind
Saturday's cold front. This should allow low temps to fall into the
50s across many outlying locations, to between 60 and 65 in some of
the urban centers.

Sunday...

a pleasant end to the weekend across southern new england. 850
temps between +11c and +12c should allow highs to reach into the
lower to middle 80s in most locations, but dewpoints in the 50s will
make it feel much more comfortable outside. Mainly dry weather
anticipated, but approaching shortwave may be enough to trigger an
isolated shower t-storm or two by mid-late afternoon across the
interior.

Monday and Tuesday...

anomalous upper trough cold pool aloft overhead will result in
slightly below normal temps with comfortable humidity levels. Highs
mainly in the 70s are expected both days. The cold pool
aloft shortwave energy will result in the potential for a few
diurnally driven showers isolated thunderstorms both days. Not
expecting a washout by any means, but the main risk for any activity
will be during the afternoon early evening hours.

Wednesday...

axis of upper trough will probably have shifted to the east of the
region. This should allow temps to warm a few more degrees than
mon Tue and result in mainly dry weather. However, if trough ends up
slower than currently expected there would be the risk for a few
more showers isolated thunderstorms.

Thursday and Friday...

upper trough lifts northeast of the region with rising height
fields. This should result in a warming trend for the end of the
work week, with a return to summerlike warmth and humidity.

Aviation 20z Friday through Wednesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... Moderate confidence.

Today...

vfr for most of the region with iso MVFR within any shower tsra.

Stratus and fog will overspread the south coast closer to
sunset.

Tonight into Saturday...

MVFR-lifr CIGS with MVFR-ifr vsbys with br fg. Scattered shra tsra
tonight approaching from the west, with more widespread
potential Saturday morning. Improving conditions from west to
east around midday ahead of a wind shift from the w. Prior to
the wind shift will continue to see SW winds with potential
gusts 25 to 30 kts llws possible for SE coastal terminals as is
some embedded tsra. Improving towards evening to low-endVFR
skc.

Kbos terminal... High confidence.VFR today with gusty SW winds
up to 25 kts, lower CIGS into this evening with increasing
rain thunder chances.

Kbdl terminal...VFR CIGS today with blustery SW winds that will
lower into evening prior to onset of ra +ra.

Outlook Saturday night through Wednesday ...

Saturday night through Wednesday... High confidence. MainlyVFR
conditions other than a few mainly diurnally driven showers and
perhaps isolated t-storms.&&

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ...

sw winds continue to gust up to 25 to 30 kts through early
tomorrow prior to a cool frontal passage. Waves building around
5 to 7 feet on the waters as the remnants of cindy are advected
ne across the waters around the morning hours. Prior to and
during this time, likely to be either a combination of low
clouds and fog with visibility down to a quarter mile or less
possible. Improving late Saturday as winds become westerly while
beginning to diminish along with wave action.

Outlook Saturday night through Wednesday ...

Saturday night through Wednesday... Moderate to high confidence.

Quiet boating weather overall during this time period. A few hours
of near shore lower 20 knot wind gusts and choppy seas are possible
on both Sun and Mon afternoons.

Tides coastal flooding
Astronomical tides are rather high through this weekend during the
night time cycles. Boston has a 12.3 ft tide just before midnight
tonight, a 12.4 ft high tide around midnight Sat night and 12.2 ft
just after midnight Sun night. While, offshore winds are forecast
current conditions suggest a 0.4 surge which will result in
minor splashover. Thus will go ahead an issue a coastal flood
statement for tonight's high tide.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 3 pm edt Saturday for anz231>234.

Small craft advisory until 9 pm edt this evening for anz230-
236.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt Saturday for anz235-237-
250-254>256.

Synopsis... Frank dunten
near term... Dunten
short term... Dunten
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank dunten
marine... Frank dunten
tides coastal flooding... Staff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi57 min 4.1 77°F 1007 hPa71°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 15 mi42 min 71°F 67°F1007 hPa (-1.9)
44090 16 mi38 min 63°F2 ft
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 29 mi42 min 78°F 71°F1006.4 hPa (-2.2)
FRXM3 30 mi42 min 77°F 69°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 30 mi42 min SSW 15 G 20 75°F 1004.7 hPa (-2.2)
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 31 mi52 min 64°F2 ft1007.2 hPa (-1.9)
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 33 mi42 min SSW 19 G 20 67°F 1006.7 hPa (-2.3)
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi42 min SSW 8 G 17 74°F 1005.4 hPa (-2.3)
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi57 min SSW 8 75°F 1006 hPa69°F
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi42 min SSE 20 G 21 72°F 73°F1005.1 hPa (-2.4)
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 41 mi42 min SSW 16 G 21 69°F 65°F1006.1 hPa (-2.3)
PVDR1 41 mi42 min SSE 18 G 21 74°F 1004.5 hPa (-2.4)71°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi42 min S 18 G 20 75°F 69°F1004.1 hPa (-2.3)
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 42 mi42 min SSW 11 G 18 69°F 69°F1008.1 hPa (-1.8)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 42 mi52 min SSE 14 G 16 67°F 60°F2 ft1004.6 hPa (-2.1)
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 44 mi42 min SSW 17 G 20 76°F 70°F1005.8 hPa (-2.4)
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 48 mi42 min 86°F 1002.9 hPa (-2.0)

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi47 minSW 15 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy77°F69°F79%1007.4 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA13 mi50 minSSW 13 G 1710.00 miFair82°F69°F65%1005.7 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi1.8 hrsSSW 13 G 207.00 miFair74°F68°F82%1007.3 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi49 minSSW 1310.00 miFair76°F69°F79%1005.9 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi49 minSSW 16 G 229.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F68°F82%1007.1 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi50 minS 12 G 1610.00 miFair82°F68°F63%1005.3 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoSW11
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SW4SW5W3CalmCalmW3CalmNW4NW5W5NW7NW6NW4CalmSW4SW4
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Buzzards Bay Entrance, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.80 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:48 AM EDT     4.02 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:45 PM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:19 PM EDT     5.23 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.60.5-0.2-0.6-0.8-0.21.12.73.743.52.51.30.40.1-0.1-0.10.31.434.55.254.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:03 AM EDT     0.22 knots Slack
Fri -- 04:51 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:09 AM EDT     4.72 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 09:34 AM EDT     -0.22 knots Slack
Fri -- 12:23 PM EDT     -4.76 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 03:26 PM EDT     0.21 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:27 PM EDT     4.61 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:43 PM EDT     -0.12 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:32 PM EDT     New Moon
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
-4.9-4.5-3.4-0.83.24.34.74.53.92.5-2.3-4-4.7-4.6-3.8-2.22.53.94.54.542.8-1.8-3.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.