Wednesday, January23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bourne, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:46PM Wednesday January 23, 2019 6:03 PM EST (23:03 UTC) Moonrise 9:00PMMoonset 9:54AM Illumination 90% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 323 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
.gale warning in effect from 1 am est Thursday through Thursday evening...
Tonight..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain after midnight.
Thu..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas around 6 ft. Areas of fog. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less in the afternoon.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Areas of fog in the evening. A chance of rain in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 4 ft.
Fri night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 323 Pm Est Wed Jan 23 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. An area of low pres tracks north of the great lakes tonight. A wave of low pres lifts over srn new england on Thu. Widespread rain and strong south gales will prevail across the waters on Thu. Winds may reach storm force Thu. Arctic high pres follows for Fri and Sat. Another weather system brings a chance of rain and snow showers Sun. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bourne, MA
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location: 41.74, -70.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 232131
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
431 pm est Wed jan 23 2019

Synopsis
The threat for showers will increase from west to east tonight,
particularly toward daybreak Thursday. Heavy rain on Thursday will
bring the potential for some flooding, strong to damaging wind
gusts, along with unseasonably mild temperatures. Mainly dry
and more seasonable temperatures follow on Friday, then
turning colder Saturday. Snow showers are possible
Sunday then another frontal system may impact the region
Tuesday.

Near term until 6 am Thursday morning
Low pressure across the eastern great lakes will lift northeast into
quebec tonight. The result will be a continued strengthening
southwest low level jet. The bulk of the forcing deeper moisture
will remain to our west this evening with some upper level ridging
still in control. Nonetheless, we still expect some light rain
showers at times mainly across the interior with the focus across
western ma northern ct. Temperatures still hovering around 32
degrees along the high terrain of the berkshires, so will continue
the winter weather advisory through 8 pm this evening. Even in
locations where temperatures are in the middle 30s, some spotty
light freezing rain will be possible given the very cold ground
temperatures. Any ice accretion will be no more than a glaze, but
that is all it takes to result in hazardous travel.

We should see an increase in areal coverage and intensity of the
rain showers after midnight, especially across interior southern new
england. The increasing southwest low level jet will transport
higher dewpoints northward and also allow for rising temperatures,
especially along the coastal plain. In fact, temperatures may be
near or even above 50 across portions of ri SE ma by daybreak thu.

Lastly, we will have to watch for areas of fog developing overnight
particularly across the interior. This the result of milder air
moving over the snowpack in place.

Short term 6 am Thursday morning through 6 pm Thursday
Highlights...

* heavy rain and some flooding potential Thursday
* strong to damaging wind gusts across eastern new england on thu
active weather on Thursday with heavy rain flooding potential on
Thursday along with the strong to damaging wind gusts. Will break
more below.

1) heavy rain flood potential Thursday
intensifying low pressure will track just west of southern new
england Thursday. This will induce a potent southerly low level jet
4-5 standard deviations above normal. Combined this with a pwat
axis 3-4 standard deviations above normal will set the stage for
heavy rain. The strong forcing will result a widespread 1 to 2
inches of rain with locally higher amounts. The greatest risk for
the highest amounts will be across the western slopes of the
worcester hills, where the very strong south to southwest LLJ will
result in some enhanced upslope flow. There is enough forcing and
marginal elevated instability for the low risk of a t-storm or two.

In addition to the heavy rain on Thursday, snow water equivalent
measurements indicate values on the order of 1 to 2 inches across
the region. High temperatures should reach well into the 50s in most
locales and it is not out of the question that a few locations touch
60 across ri SE ma. This coupled with heavy rain and dewpoints in
the upper 40s to middle 50s will result in a good deal of this
melting. Combined all that with a frozen ground, the potential for
areas of significant urban street flooding potential exists. There
also will be the risk for some river stream flooding. Therefore... A
flood watch remains in effect for all but the outer-islands.

2) strong to damaging wind potential:
as low pressure tracks west of southern new england, a very strong
low level jet will develop late Thursday morning and afternoon. The
nam rgem indicate a 925 mb LLJ of 85 to 95 knots moving across the
southeast new england coast, which is 4-5 standard deviations above
normal. At 850 mb, the guidance indicates over 100 knots between
18z and 22 across southeast new england.

As if often the case with southerly flow, it is uncertain how much
of this wind will be able to mix down given the inversion. A good
rule of thumb is to take 50 percent of the 925 mb wind, but this can
be stronger if we are able to get a fine line going. A lot of the
mesoscale models do show this occurring, so something will have to
monitor closely. Based on the data, opted to go with a high wind
warning for southern ri and far southeast ma. We also have gone
with a wind advisory for the rest of eastern ma and ri. An
expansion of these headlines a bit further westward is a
possibility, but will let the midshift take a look at the 00z data.

The threat of these stronger winds reaching the ground will increase
where high temperatures approach 60. Given the heavy rain and the
magnitude of the wind, there is the risk for some downed trees and
scattered power outages.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
Late week into weekend chill with some potential light snow snow
showers in-between. Out ahead of a potent midweek storm system,
onset wintry weather followed by another soaker possible. Late week
could see another arctic blast with bitterly cold wind chills.

* highlights ...

- cold, dry conditions through late week
- watching potential outcomes Sunday along an arctic front
- another onset wintry weather, follow-up soaker tue-wed
- potential late week arctic blast
* overview ...

to everything, turn turn turn, there is a season, turn turn turn. A
pattern relatively unchanged through the following week, for now. A
spinning tropospheric polar vortex across the hudson bay region that
has been brought about by continued N pacific poleward sub-tropical
contributions yielding higher heights into the arctic, downshearing
n-stream energy over N america. A broad h5 trof pattern maintaining
within 5-day average h5 height ensemble means through early february
across eastern N america, -h85 temperature anomalies for the central
portion of N america, new england along the e-cusp, wobbling between
airmasses with surface lows cascading round the tpv occluding below
hudson bay lower heights with secondary low development across the
northeast.

Turn turn turn, post-frontal digging arctic air, clipper-systems in-
between. With greater downshearing, equatorward potential vorticity
displacements and tropospheric folds, more robust storms per cyclo-
genesis. Further in time, lower confidence with outcomes, uncertain
with possible N atlantic downstream traffic, mjo contributions. May
see a break mid-february with potential mild sub-tropical pacific
low-level E wind anomalies into the conus.

Break down details, forecast thinking in the discussion below. Low
confidence forecast starting with Friday. Greater weighting towards
ec ecens.

* discussion ...

late week into Saturday ...

westerly winds, cold, dry. Scattered snow shower activity possible
into the berkshires with lake fetch. More robust outcomes with some
additional mid level energy ascent swinging through Friday night
along a reinforcing, arctic cold front. But limited moisture and an
increasing measure of high pressure.

Sunday into Monday ...

additional sweeping pieces of energy beneath the hudson bay tpv. Ec
keeping separate rather than phasing, could see little outcome with
just a brief warm-up to at or above seasonable levels, S winds. As
alluded to by the prior forecaster, have to watch for any potential
development, any focused ascent.

Tuesday through Wednesday ...

another potent storm. Onset wintry weather prior to erosion per s
winds. Not ruling out lead cold air drainage, however loosening with
interior surface to low-level low center over the N great lakes if
the 23.12z ec is correct. Another soaking for S new england possible
with another 1-2 inches of rain, strong S winds. Perhaps a repeat of
the coming storm? Wait and see. Low confidence forecast as forecast
models wobble, shift, adjust.

Thursday onward ...

return arctic air behind a deep, stacked low center over the hudson
bay region. Could see a return of below-zero temperatures, as well
as bitterly cold, potentially dangerous wind chills.

Aviation 22z Wednesday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

tonight... Moderate to high confidence. MVFR CIGS will dominate
tonight, but some ifr conditions may develop after midnight across
the interior. This a result in lower clouds and the development of
fog. Scattered light showers will be mainly across the interior
this evening, but will increase in areal coverage and intensity
between 6z and 12z from west to east. Llws will also be a concern
tonight with a strong southwest low level jet.

Thursday... Moderate to high confidence. Widespread low end MVFR-ifr
with localized lifr conditions anticipated. Heavy rain and areas of
fog expected along with llws. Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 35
knots across much of the interior and between 40 and 50 knots across
eastern new england. Strong llws is also anticipated with a
screaming LLJ at 925 mb.

Kbos terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate to high confidence in taf.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ...

Thursday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Friday through Friday night:VFR. Breezy.

Saturday:VFR.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shsn.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra, slight chance shsn.

Sunday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shsn.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ...

tonight... Moderate confidence. A strong southwest low level jet
will result in 30 to 35 knot wind gusts across the waters. The
winds will tend to occur after midnight.

Thursday... Moderate confidence. A 925 mb LLJ between 85 and 95
knots will move across the waters. Given the cold waters this time
of year there will be a strong inversion, but still expect strong
gale force wind gusts. Gale warnings are posted for all waters. We
can not rule out brief storm force wind gusts, but if they occur
will be short-lived and enhanced by a fine line. So if needed, we
would handle those stronger winds with special marine warnings. Seas
will build to between 10 and 15 feet across the outer-waters. In
addition, areas of fog may become locally dense as anomalously high
dewpoints move over the cold ocean.

Outlook Thursday night through Monday ...

Thursday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds
with gusts up to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 15 ft. Areas fog.

Friday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 30 kt. Rough seas up to 11 ft.

Friday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of snow showers.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers, slight chance of snow showers.

Sunday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Monday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for ctz002>004.

Ma... High wind warning from 9 am to 7 pm est Thursday for
maz018>024.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for maz002>022-026.

Wind advisory from 9 am to 5 pm est Thursday for maz005>007-
013>017.

Winter weather advisory until 8 pm est this evening for maz002-
003-008-009.

Ri... High wind warning from 9 am to 7 pm est Thursday for
riz005>008.

Flash flood watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday
night for riz001>007.

Wind advisory from 9 am to 5 pm est Thursday for riz001>004.

Marine... Gale warning from 1 am to 9 pm est Thursday for anz231>235-237-
251-255-256.

Gale warning from 7 am to 7 pm est Thursday for anz230.

Gale warning from 7 am to 5 pm est Thursday for anz236.

Gale warning until 9 pm est Thursday for anz250-254.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Frank
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi78 min SSE 5.1 43°F 1021 hPa40°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 15 mi33 min 42°F 33°F1020.8 hPa
44090 16 mi33 min 36°F1 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 24 mi23 min S 14 G 16 38°F 35°F1021.5 hPa37°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 29 mi33 min 43°F 39°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 30 mi33 min SSW 12 G 16 44°F 1020.1 hPa
FRXM3 30 mi69 min 43°F 35°F
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 33 mi63 min S 14 G 14 44°F 1021.8 hPa (-1.8)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi33 min S 11 G 12 38°F 35°F1020 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi78 min SW 8 41°F 1021 hPa35°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi33 min SW 6 G 11 1020 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 41 mi33 min S 8 G 11 42°F 35°F1020.3 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi33 min S 7 G 9.9 41°F 1019.8 hPa36°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 41 mi73 min SSW 18 G 21 42°F 4 ft1020.3 hPa (-0.6)35°F
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 42 mi73 min S 16 G 21 42°F 41°F3 ft1019 hPa (-0.9)35°F
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 42 mi33 min S 7 G 15 43°F 29°F1021.8 hPa
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi33 min S 5.1 G 8 1019.1 hPa
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 44 mi33 min SSW 9.9 G 13 1020.2 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 48 mi33 min 41°F 1018.5 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi68 minSSW 1310.00 miOvercast45°F37°F76%1021 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA13 mi71 minSSW 8 G 1810.00 miOvercast43°F34°F71%1020.4 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi67 minSSW 87.00 miOvercast41°F37°F86%1021.1 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi70 minSSW 910.00 miOvercast43°F37°F82%1020.6 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi70 minS 129.00 miOvercast44°F42°F93%1021.6 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi71 minSSW 710.00 miOvercast43°F33°F68%1020.1 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW5W6W4W4NW3E4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5SW12
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1 day ago----------------------------NW18
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2 days agoNW8NW14
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Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Buzzards Bay Entrance, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:15 AM EST     -0.48 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:54 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:27 AM EST     4.93 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:59 PM EST     -0.88 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:53 PM EST     4.21 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.81.50.5-0-0.3-0.5-0.30.62.33.94.84.842.71.30.4-0.2-0.6-0.9-0.40.92.63.84.2

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:36 AM EST     -4.85 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:37 AM EST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:36 AM EST     4.66 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 08:54 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 10:49 AM EST     -0.07 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:54 PM EST     -5.21 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:46 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:03 PM EST     0.03 knots Slack
Wed -- 07:59 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 08:10 PM EST     4.99 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 11:37 PM EST     -0.04 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-3.8-4.7-4.8-4.1-2.72.13.84.54.64.13-1.5-3.8-4.9-5.2-4.8-3.6-0.93.44.654.84.12.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.