Friday, October19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bourne, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 5:54PM Friday October 19, 2018 10:16 AM EDT (14:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 1:36AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ234 Buzzards Bay- 716 Am Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
.gale warning in effect from 6 pm edt this evening through Saturday morning...
Today..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt this afternoon. Seas around 3 ft, building to 5 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Seas around 6 ft. Showers likely after midnight.
Sat..SW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Showers likely in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 5 ft, subsiding to 3 ft after midnight.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Sun night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 3 ft.
Tue night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Am Edt Fri Oct 19 2018
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. A ridge of high pres will pass south of the waters through tonight. A strong cold front will move across the waters Sat night...followed by more gusty nw winds into Sun. Another ridge of high pres will build south of the waters Mon. Low pres will then track across northern new england on Tue. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bourne, MA
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location: 41.74, -70.61     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191400
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1000 am edt Fri oct 19 2018

Synopsis
High pressure offshore with this afternoon with developing
southwest surface flow bringing warmer air. This southwest flow
continues into Saturday along with gusty winds along the coast.

Temperature swings roll on through the following week. Warm ups
out ahead of sweeping cold fronts associated with light showery
weather and breezy conditions, frost freeze conditions
following as high pressure builds across the region.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
High pressure offshore with developing southwest surface flow.

Satellite shows some thin cirrus moving across central ny, but
sunny skies over all of southern new england and the nearest
thickening of clouds is far away. So will maintain a sunny
forecast for the afternoon with some afternoon cirrus at most.

Albany 12z sounding shows mixing possible up to about 910 mb
with an inversion above that level. Temps at that level would
support MAX sfc temps in the lower 60s, possibly mid 60s in a
couple of warm spots. Winds at that level were around 20 knots
at aly, but trending higher to the west where buf was 35 knots.

Continue to expect some developing gustiness here, in the 20-25
kt range (20 to 30 mph).

Overall, only minor changes to the forecast.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Saturday
Tonight...

approaching shortwave will induce a fairly strong southwest low level
jet of 35 to 45 knots. This will keep the boundary layer mixed tonight
resulting in much milder temperatures. Lows will only drop into the
upper 40s to the lower 50s in many locales this evening, followed
by rising temperatures along the coastal plain with the gusty winds.

In fact... We did hoist a wind advisory for the CAPE islands. Sst
still 60+ across much of our southern waters which should allow the
strong low level jet to mix down at times... Resulting in southwest
wind gusts of 35 to 40 knots.

We also expect skies to become mostly cloudy overnight as low level
moisture increases ahead of the shortwave. A few showers should
also develop... Particularly across the far southeast new england
coast on the nose of the LLJ and where the moisture is deeper. Far
from a washout though as much of the night will feature dry weather.

Saturday...

any left over showers should exit the region by mid to late morning
with the departing shortwave. Will continue the wind advisory into
the late morning hours across the CAPE islands... But should see wind
diminish behind shortwave. In fact... With partial sunshine and a
mild start high temperatures should soar well into the 60s across
many locations. Dry weather should dominate after any left over
showers exit the region by mid to late morning. However... An
approaching strong cold front may result in a few more showers
developing late in the afternoon early evening across our western
zones.

Long term Saturday night through Thursday
* highlights...

- rolling temperature trend through midweek
- with any frontal passages, expect showery weather, breezy winds
- in wake, frost freeze conditions possible
* overview...

rolling temperature trend. NE atlantic block downstream of a eastern
n america h5 preferred trof and western N america split-flow regime,
as N pacific energy ejects e, +pna reloads in a +ao environment, and
we see shots of cold, canadian air at times through the weekend into
the early-half of next week. Cross-polar flow, greater
baroclinicity, local wind enhancement associated along sweeping
cold fronts. Mainly continental airmass association, expecting
some showery weather, a few wet snowflakes possible. Warmer
rebounds in-between thanks to the upstream s-branch of
aforementioned split-flow.

But a change is in the air. Most N hemisphere open, progressive, n
pacific jet MAX rounds the E hemisphere into the W conus. Weakened
epo, W CONUS split-flow and E CONUS h5 trof nudged downstream. The
pattern opens briefly, but a wary eye on energy ejecting e, riding
over W CONUS high terrain and obtaining lee cyclogenesis towards the
e CONUS into late october. Models continue to hint on possible storm
development, however an uncertain reality given deterministic and
ensemble model spread, low confidence forecast, unable to make any
outcome determination.

Gfs canadian continues to be progressive over ec ecens. Ukmet
somewhere in-between. The split in forecast guidance mid to late
week. Consensus preference early, trend with greater ec weighting
late week.

* discussion...

Saturday night into Sunday ... Cold air advection, steepening lapse
rates, mid-level trailing vortmax. With lingering column moisture,
in addition to breezy NW winds held below wind advisory criteria, 30
to 35 mph, associated with pressure rises, can't rule out scattered
rain snow showers. High outcome confidence over N W high terrain.

Little to no accumulation.

Sunday night ... Stray from coldest MOS guidance but it'll still be
chilly. Building surface ridge but still good NW flow aloft aligned
with prevailing h5 trof, energy continually streaming through. Can't
rule out mid-level cloud decks and mix down of winds, so not looking
like an ideal cold environment. Dry.

Monday through Tuesday ... Chilly and dry Monday, return warmer air
and some possible showery weather courtesy of low-level isentropic
ascent along a lifting warm front. Rebound warmer temperatures with
chance pops. Light outcomes, hardly a washout given more continental
airmass association.

Wednesday into Thursday ... Low confidence forecast, but if leaning
with ec ecens, linger a stalled frontal boundary longer in vicinity
while holding temperatures at or slightly below seasonable beneath a
near-zonal environment. Some clouds and light showers at times. A
sharper cold front not until late going into Friday.

Friday onward ... Little to no confidence. Continued exacerbated
spread among deterministic ensemble models. Again, watching energy
ejecting E from h3 N pacific speed MAX into W conus. How it evolves
e remains highly uncertain, outcomes widely unknown.

Aviation 14z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

This afternoon...

vfr. Few-sct 050-060. SW gusts 20-30 kts developing during the
afternoon across coastal plain terminals. Strongest gusts
across CAPE islands.

Tonight...

vfr becoming MVFR after midnight. Continued gusty 35-40 kt sw
winds over the CAPE islands. Few shra possible after midnight,
greatest chance also over the CAPE islands.

Saturday...

any lower ceilings should improve to mainlyVFR by late morning
early afternoon. Gusty SW winds along the coastal plain should
diminish some during the afternoon.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Strong winds
with local gusts to 40 kt. Slight chance shra.

Saturday night:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Sunday:VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Slight chance shra.

Sunday night:VFR. Windy with local gusts to 30 kt.

Monday:VFR. Breezy.

Monday night through Tuesday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Saturday ... High confidence.

This afternoon...

sw wind gusts increase to between 20 and 30 knots during the
afternoon across the waters.

Tonight and Saturday...

strong SW low level jet developing coupled with the relatively
mild ocean will allow 30 to 40 knot wind gusts over most waters
tonight into Sat morning. Gale warnings posted for all waters
except small craft headlines for boston harbor narragansett bay.

Long southwest fetch should allow seas to build to between 6
and 9 feet across our southern waters. The winds should begin to
diminish Saturday afternoon as the core of the low level jet
lifts northeast of our region.

Outlook Saturday night through Tuesday ...

Saturday: low risk for gale force winds with gusts up to 40 kt.

Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain showers.

Saturday night: low risk for small craft advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight chance of rain
showers.

Sunday: strong winds with local gusts up to 30 kt. Areas of
rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Sunday night: moderate risk for small craft advisory winds with
areas of gusts up to 30 kt. Local rough seas.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Tuesday: low risk for small craft advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Slight chance of rain showers.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Wind advisory from 11 pm this evening to noon edt Saturday for
maz022>024.

Ri... None.

Marine... Gale warning from 6 pm this evening to noon edt Saturday for
anz231>235-237-254>256.

Small craft advisory until noon edt Saturday for anz230-236.

Gale warning from 11 pm this evening to noon edt Saturday for
anz250-251.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Wtb frank sipprell
short term... Frank
long term... Sipprell
aviation... Frank sipprell
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 12 mi91 min 2.9 47°F 1025 hPa33°F
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 15 mi28 min 51°F 60°F1024.1 hPa
44090 16 mi46 min 58°F2 ft
44020 - NANTUCKET SOUND 24 mi26 min W 16 G 21 50°F 60°F2 ft1024.3 hPa37°F
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 29 mi34 min 47°F 58°F1024.6 hPa
FRXM3 30 mi28 min 48°F 35°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 30 mi28 min SW 18 G 21 47°F 1024 hPa
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 33 mi76 min W 17 G 19 49°F 1025 hPa (-0.8)
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 39 mi28 min SW 8.9 G 11 47°F 59°F1024 hPa
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 39 mi34 min W 8.9 G 13 47°F 1024.4 hPa
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 39 mi91 min WSW 7 44°F 1025 hPa31°F
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 41 mi34 min W 12 G 14 47°F 55°F1024.4 hPa
PVDR1 41 mi28 min WSW 8 G 12 47°F 1024 hPa31°F
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 41 mi26 min WSW 18 G 21 46°F 3 ft1023 hPa (-0.6)32°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 42 mi34 min W 6 G 9.9 47°F 58°F1023.5 hPa
NTKM3 - 8449130 - Nantucket Island, MA 42 mi28 min W 6 G 12 51°F 53°F1024.3 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 42 mi26 min SW 14 G 16 46°F 57°F2 ft1022.5 hPa (-0.6)35°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 44 mi34 min WSW 12 G 14 47°F 60°F1024.6 hPa
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 48 mi28 min 44°F 1023.1 hPa

Wind History for Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Otis Air National Guard Base, MA7 mi21 minWSW 10 G 1610.00 miFair50°F35°F58%1024.4 hPa
Plymouth, Plymouth Municipal Airport, MA13 mi24 minWSW 1310.00 miFair50°F30°F48%1023.8 hPa
Hyannis, Barnstable Municipal-Boardman Airport, MA18 mi20 minWSW 1010.00 miFair51°F33°F50%1023.6 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA19 mi23 minWSW 1110.00 miFair50°F32°F50%1023.5 hPa
Marthas Vineyard Airport, MA23 mi23 minSW 9 G 1810.00 miFair53°F39°F59%1024.4 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA24 mi24 minSW 710.00 miFair49°F30°F48%1023.8 hPa

Wind History from FMH (wind in knots)
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2 days ago--NW12W10
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SW6SW7W3W8W8W10W10W6W4W4W3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSW14
G20

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Buzzards Bay Entrance, Massachusetts
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:47 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     3.01 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 01:06 PM EDT     0.76 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 03:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:42 PM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.40.81.62.32.832.92.51.91.51.210.811.62.42.93.33.332.31.61.1

Tide / Current Tables for Cape Cod Canal, Massachusetts Current
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Cape Cod Canal
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:36 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:14 AM EDT     3.60 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 06:36 AM EDT     -0.02 knots Slack
Fri -- 06:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:13 AM EDT     -3.67 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:28 PM EDT     0.16 knots Slack
Fri -- 03:36 PM EDT     3.37 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 03:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 05:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:45 PM EDT     -0.17 knots Slack
Fri -- 09:33 PM EDT     -3.91 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.92.63.43.63.53.12.1-1.8-3.2-3.7-3.5-2.9-1.71.82.93.33.33.12.3-1.4-3.1-3.8-3.9-3.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.