Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ocean Grove, MA

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Sunrise 5:08AMSunset 8:24PM Thursday June 20, 2019 7:21 PM EDT (23:21 UTC) Moonrise 11:05PMMoonset 8:04AM Illumination 88% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 716 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Areas of fog. Showers likely with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..W winds around 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Mon night..S winds around 5 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 716 Pm Edt Thu Jun 20 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low pres will cross the region tonight, exiting the coast Fri morning. High pres will build into the northeast from the great lakes over the weekend, then will move offshore Mon. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA
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location: 41.74, -71.3     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 202302
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
702 pm edt Thu jun 20 2019

Synopsis
Low pressure crossing southern new england tonight will bring more
widespread showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain. The low
will move offshore Friday morning followed by a drying trend in the
afternoon from west to east, but possibly not arriving until late in
the day across CAPE cod and the islands. Dry and seasonable weather
returns Saturday. Warmer conditions arrive Sunday into Monday then
the weather turns unsettled with the risk of showers Tuesday into
Wednesday. Some improvement possible Thursday.

Near term until 5 am Friday morning
7 pm update...

quite the moist airmass with dew pts now 70+ across ct into
western-central ma, with 60s elsewhere. SPC mesoanalysis has
pwats near 2 inches over the region. Thus it won't take much to
trigger brief heavy downpours. For example seeing new showers
developing as of this writing over CAPE cod and the islands.

However previously organized convection over nj nyc and ny state
continues to weaken with cloud tops warming, as short wave and
associated forcing over northern ny state exits into northern
new england. Therefore coverage of showers this evening will be
widely scattered, although brief heavy downpours likely with any
convection.

More organized showers will arrive after midnight into fri
morning as trailing short wave trough over eastern great lakes
moves east toward new england.

Given this moist saturated airmass dense fog will impact the
south coast of ma ri thru at least this evening with some
improvement after midnight when winds shift from sse to ssw.

Previous forecast verifying nicely and captures details mentioned
above so no major changes planned. Previous discussion below.

==================================================================
tonight...

low pressure crosses over southern new england, with showers and
isolated to scattered thunderstorms moving into the area early this
evening. Models showing up to several hundred j kg MUCAPE this
evening. Locally heavy rainfall possible, as pwats remain around 2"
east of the low center and along ahead of the associated cold front,
which will cross sne during the overnight. Added lift from the upper
jet and an approaching short wave. Models, including cams, are in
good agreement that focus for strongest convection should be to our
n nw. However, remnants of that convection will move into our area,
especially western ma north central ct. In addition to any
convection moving into our area from the w, we will still have ample
coverage of showers to warrant likely to categorical pops.

Rainfall totals for tonight will vary, and should mainly range from
0.25" to 1", with localized higher amounts to 2" possible. There is
the potential for the usual minor urban and poor drainage flooding.

The lowest flash flood guidance values, around 2" hour, are located
in western ma. While we can't completely rule out this amount of
rain falling in a short timeframe, it would likely be isolated in
nature.

Also, over western ma north central ct there is a low prob of an
isolated strong to severe thunderstorm this evening. This would
mainly be for strong wind gusts.

A dense fog advisory has been issued for coastal ri, south coastal
ma and the CAPE and islands including block island. Areas of dense
fog are expected to linger or redevelop this evening and last into
the overnight, with visibility below 1 2 or 1 4 mile at times.

Surface dewpoints will drop minimally overnight, which will in turn
limit overnight lows. Temps should fall into the low to mid 60s for
most of the area, with a few spots over the interior high terrain
dipping into the upper 50s around daybreak fri.

Short term 5 am Friday morning through 6 pm Friday
Friday...

pattern for Friday is looks more like something we see in the cool
season as opposed to late june, as models close off 700 mb low as it
tracks towards the canadian maritimes. Surface low will also be
tracking in that direction over the course of the day. We are left
in a N NW flow, airmass dries out over sne over the course of the
day, with pwats dropping below 1" in western portions of our
area by 18z, then central and eastern portions of the region
between 18z and 00z. The chance for showers continues into the
afternoon, but diminishes from W to e. Locally heavy rainfall
will be possible in the morning.

The surface low deepens as it moves away, tightening the pressure
gradient over our area. This should allow for some wind gusts of 20-
30 mph, especially during the afternoon when some breaks in the
clouds allow for mixing.

Highs recover into 70s. Decreasing clouds during the afternoon
especially over the far interior, where skies should turn mostly
sunny.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
Highlights...

* mainly dry seasonable Sat then turning warmer sun
* warm and dry weather likely lingers into Mon but then risk of
showers Tue and Wed with some improvement possible thu
details...

Friday night...

post frontal airmass overspreads the region supporting dry cool
weather with lows in the 50s along with a brisk NW wind. Comfy with
dew pt falling into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Saturday...

nw flow aloft but anomalous closed mid level low remains over the
maritimes and ejects a robust short wave across eastern ma and ri,
accompanied by -20c air at 500 mb. Nam GFS ec and canadian models
all generate some light QPF across this region which seems
reasonable based on instability mid level lapse rates and strong
cyclonic flow (especially by late jun standards). Not a washout but
a few widely scattered afternoon showers likely ri and eastern ma.

Typically cold air aloft of this magnitude supports a low risk of
small hail but as previous forecaster noted dew pts in the 40s will
likely limit available moisture for updraft potential. Worse case
scenario will be for a few gusty showers given large temp dew pt
spread (inverted-v signature). Otherwise a real nice day with
morning sunshine mixing with afternoon clouds and highs 75-80 along
with a refreshing NW breeze given deep blyr mixing.

Sunday...

closed mid level low exits into eastern quebec resulting in height
rises here in new england. Dry NW flow aloft supports abundant
sunshine and warmer than Saturday with 850 mb temps rising to +12c
to +14c. Wnw winds (not as windy as sat) will allow temps to
overachieve with highs well into the low and mid 80s. Thus our max
temps are a few degs warmer than guidance. Warm at the beaches as
well given wnw land trajectory winds. Dew pts in the 50s will yield
comfortable humidity levels.

Monday...

deep layer ridge remains just west of new england so warm dry
weather will continue. Although with high pres overhead afternoon
seabreezes will keep the coastline cooler than Sunday.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

unsettled weather likely as next trough over the great lakes ejects
eastward. 12z ec and past runs have been more amplified than the
gfs. Both the 12z GEFS and ecens are more amplified than the 12z
gfs, thus providing some support toward the more amplified ec runs.

So risk of showers from Monday night Tue and possibly into wed.

Cooler temps too given cloud cover, risk of showers and onshore wind
especially tue.

Thursday...

some improvement possible with risk of showers more diurnal given
cold pool aloft and coverage of showers probably less than Tue and
wed. Given winds become more wsw temps should recover a bit as well.

Aviation 00z Friday through Tuesday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... Moderate confidence.

23z update ...

mainly a mix of ifr lifr in low clouds fog thru this evening,
then some improvement after 03z as winds shift from sse to ssw.

Showers with locally brief heavy downpours should be widely
scattered this evening, then becoming more widespread after
midnight and especially toward Fri morning. Any tsra should be
very isolated. Earlier discussion below.

=================================================================
Friday...

conditions gradually improve toVFR from W to E Friday,
although scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm could
form.

Kbos terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... Moderate confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday night through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday night:VFR.

Saturday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Saturday night:VFR.

Sunday:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday night through Monday:VFR.

Monday night: mainlyVFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight
chance shra, slight chance tsra.

Tuesday: mainly MVFR, with local ifr possible. Chance shra,
slight chance tsra.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

Tonight...

se winds 10 to 20 kt will back during the overnight as a low
pressure center crosses over the waters. By daybreak winds will be
from the W nw. Seas on the southern outer coastal waters build to 3
to 5 feet. Areas of fog will persist overnight, especially over the
southern waters where visibility below 1 2 mile is expected.

Friday...

small craft advisories posted for the southern outer coastal waters
and ri bi sounds for seas. Seas 3 to6 feet are expected in the sca
area. NW winds prevail during the day as surface low tracks NE into
the canadian maritimes. Gusts around 20 kts are expected, can't rule
out a few gusts to 25 kts. Showers linger in the morning,
diminishing during the afternoon.

Outlook Friday night through Tuesday ... Moderate confidence.

Friday night: winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas. Slight
chance of rain showers.

Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers.

Saturday night through Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of
seas approaching 5 ft.

Sunday night: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching
5 ft.

Monday: winds less than 25 kt.

Monday night: winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
slight chance of thunderstorms.

Tuesday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... Dense fog advisory until 6 am edt Friday for maz020>024.

Ri... Dense fog advisory until 6 am edt Friday for riz004>008.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 6 am edt Saturday for
anz235-237.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Saturday for anz254>256.

Synopsis... Nocera nmb
near term... Sipprell nmb
short term... Nmb
long term... Nocera
aviation... Nocera nmb
marine... Nocera nmb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi51 min SSE 13 G 13 66°F 68°F999.7 hPa
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 7 mi51 min S 5.1 G 7 69°F 999.8 hPa
FRXM3 7 mi57 min 69°F 69°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi96 min SSW 5.1 67°F 1000 hPa67°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi51 min SW 4.1 G 8 66°F 1000.2 hPa
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 8 mi51 min 69°F 70°F1000.2 hPa
PRUR1 9 mi51 min 67°F 67°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 12 mi57 min S 8.9 G 11 65°F 67°F999.9 hPa
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi51 min S 8.9 G 12 66°F 60°F999.8 hPa
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi51 min 66°F 64°F1000.1 hPa
WAXM3 - Waquoit Bay Reserve, MA 43 mi96 min WSW 1.9 65°F 1001 hPa65°F
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi51 min 71°F 999.2 hPa
NLNC3 - 8461490 - New London, CT 49 mi51 min S 5.1 G 6 68°F 61°F999.3 hPa

Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Providence, Theodore Francis Green State Airport, RI7 mi30 minS 50.25 miLight Drizzle Fog67°F64°F93%999.8 hPa
N. Kingston / Quonset, RI11 mi31 minno data0.06 miFog66°F66°F100%999.7 hPa
Pawtucket, North Central State Airport, RI13 mi25 minN 00.50 miFog68°F68°F100%994.3 hPa
Newport, Newport State Airport, RI14 mi28 minS 90.15 miFog67°F66°F100%999.5 hPa
New Bedford, New Bedford Regional Airport, MA18 mi28 minS 90.50 miFog68°F66°F96%999.6 hPa
Taunton, Taunton Municipal Airport, MA18 mi29 minS 53.00 miFog/Mist71°F68°F90%999.4 hPa

Wind History from PVD (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS8S9S7S5S4S5SE3SE5SE3SE3SE3CalmE3SE3SE4S7S7S6--S7S8S7S8S5
1 day agoCalmNE4NE3NE3--NE4NE3N4N4N3N5N3E4E5E4E54E5SE7S9S10S11S10S8
2 days agoS7SE4S4S5S4S5S4S4S4S4S4S3S3S6S3SE5S7SE9S8SE7S7S4S5S5

Tide / Current Tables for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
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Warren
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Thu -- 04:07 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 10:59 AM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:59 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:04 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:16 PM EDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.431.60.60.30.40.81.52.43.44.24.54.131.70.80.50.71.21.82.73.74.65

Tide / Current Tables for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Thu -- 01:37 AM EDT     -2.52 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 05:42 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 09:23 AM EDT     2.45 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:46 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 02:08 PM EDT     -2.32 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:26 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 08:21 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:47 PM EDT     1.91 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 11:03 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:53 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.3-2.4-2.5-2-1.3-0.50.21.11.82.42.31.3-0.4-1.8-2.3-2.1-1.5-0.9-0.30.41.11.71.91.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.