Ocean Grove, MA Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ocean Grove, MA

May 16, 2024 4:07 AM EDT (08:07 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 8:01 PM
Moonrise 1:18 PM   Moonset 2:24 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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ANZ236 Narragansett Bay- 313 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024

.small craft advisory in effect through this evening - .

Rest of tonight - NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Thu - NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain in the morning, then showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 nm or less.

Thu night - NE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers in the evening with vsby 1 to 3 nm.

Fri - NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Fri night through Sat night - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.

Sun through Mon night - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.

ANZ200 313 Am Edt Thu May 16 2024

Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters - Low pres off of the new jersey coast will move slowly southeast through today, bringing a period of enhanced E to ene winds to the waters today and tonight. High pres then builds in from atlantic canada into southern new england Fri into the weekend. This high pres then remains in place into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ocean Grove, MA
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Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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FXUS61 KBOX 160722 AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 322 AM EDT Thu May 16 2024

SYNOPSIS
Moderate to heavy rainfall gradually wanes through the afternoon giving way to a dry end to the week. Onshore flow will keep temperatures in check along the coast. The weekend features generally dry weather and onshore breezes, but still a good amount of cloud cover. Warming trend then develops Monday through Wednesday, and we could see a couple days of high temperatures in the low 80s over interior sections of Southern New England. After today, our next chance for rains may not develop until later next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Low pressure south of southern New England will continue to bring widespread moderate, to at times heavy, rain to the region this morning. Even in the immediate term, guidance remains quite jumpy in the placement of the axis of heaviest precipitation as well as how much additional rain can be expected to fall, with the hourly HRRR forecast continuing to shift eastward with each subsequent run.
Overnight, the heaviest rain blossomed across Connecticut where, as of 7Z, 6 hour QPF approached 1.5". Hi-res guidance continues to depict a developing line of moderate to heavy rainfall that will pivot from the south coast into southeast MA and RI through the morning commute, with the beginning stages of this line, capable of 1 inch per hour rainfall rates, already present on radar, moving north from the Westerly/south Coast area early this morning. The greatest period of concern for inch per hour rainfall rates is from now through about 14Z, which, if located over highly urbanized locations, could continue to heighten concerns over minor urban and poor drainage flooding.
Fortunately, the heaviest rain overnight fell across more rural parts of the region which combined with a lull in precip intensity over much of RI and SE MA has mitigated flooding threats thusfar. Some modest river rises have been observed on small rivers and streams across far southern New England, but all forecast points remain below action stage as of this writing.

In terms of additional precipitation, additional QPF amounts will be highly dependent convective elements making their way onshore, with just isolated lightning pulses currently offshore, and moisture enhancement along the the LLJ, generally draped south of the I-90 corridor; with bets hedged towards the influence of the latter being greater. Given higher than average uncertainty in the hi- resolution guidance, heavily relied on ensemble probabilities and mean HRRR QPF to derive this morning's expected rainfall, with both pointing to an max of around 1-2", locally higher pockets, of additional rainfall across SE MA/RI.
Much lower amounts will fall, to as little as a tenth of an inch of additional QPF, across far northern MA.

Low pressure peaks in proximity to the region this morning before gradually drawing southward through the afternoon, pulling the precipitation shield along with it. Rain will become more showery in nature after the lunch hour before coming to an end, from north to south, through sunset this evening.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/

Low pressure continues to work south and east of the region overnight, which will yield clearing skies and dry conditions. Given residual moisture and slackening winds, as LLJ accompanies the departing low, some patchy fog is possible. We wont see much of an airmass change, so dewpoints will remain the driving force in keeping low temperatures seasonable for mid-May, in the low 50s region wide.

Friday is shaping up to be a dry and pleasant day as mid level ridging builds into southern New England. Any low cloud/stratus that forms overnight will burn off, yielding a mix of clouds and sun.
High temperatures have a "boom or bust potential" given persistent onshore flow and lackluster temps aloft, around 10-11C at 925mb.
There remains uncertainty in how far inland the "sea breeze", or rather, synoptic E/ENE flow will influence afternoon temperatures, but it will certainly be another significant temperature gradient day with highs warming into the 70s across the CT River Valley and struggling to warm into the 60s along the eastern coastline.



LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Highlights:

* Other than a spot shower, mainly dry weather prevails with partly to mostly cloudy conditions, along with onshore breezes this weekend.

* Warming trend Mon through Wed, with less cloud cover. Could see a couple days of highs in the lower 80s inland.

Details:

Today's global model ensembles from the 00z cycle have trended the forecast in a more optimistic direction, as a closed upper level circulation initially over the western Appalachians becomes parked over the mid-Atlantic/Chesapeake Bay vicinity this weekend.
Surface ridge stretching from Nova Scotia southwestward through Southern New England is progged to remain in place for several days, at least into the early to midweek timeframe. In addition, there continues to be indications of a warming trend to temperatures by the early to mid next week period as 500 mb shortwave ridge extends into Southern New England. These were trends noted over the last day or two and there is now a greater degree of agreement on this anticipated warming trend Monday thru Wednesday. Other than a couple hit or miss showers, drier weather looks to predominate; we may not see widespread rains develop until late next week.

The Weekend:

Surface ridge of high pressure extending in from Atlantic Canada will maintain onshore breezes. While generally dry, there should be still a good amt of cloud cover around with partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions. Expect high temperatures to be coolest near the coast given the cooler onshore flow, in the upper 50s to lower 60s.
High temperatures further inland still project considerably warmer, but how warm they get will depend on if we can see any cloudy breaks/stronger heating; offered highs well into the 60s to the lower 70s, but there is room for warmer temperatures if we see less cloud cover than anticipated.

Monday through Wednesday:

High pressure still governs at the surface, but we'll be adding 500 mb height rises. 850 mb temps warm to the +10 to +12C neighborhood and with less cloud cover, highs inland could be pushing into the lower 80s, with mid 60s to mid 70s in the coasts and the immediate coastal plain with potential for seabreezes to develop.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

00z TAF Update...

Tonight...Moderate confidence.

Conditions deteriorate to MVFR/IFR from south to north and perhaps even some localized LIFR possible after 06Z as steadier rains push in from the south. Could see an embedded t-storm or two overnight into Thu am push for portions of the south coast, but given the limited instability the risk was too low to include in the TAF forecast. Heavier rains possible across CT, RI and perhaps into SE MA. Winds shift to the E and increase to around 10-15 kts. Will have some 20-25 kt gusts along the immediate south coast late.

Through Today ...Moderate confidence.

Widespread rain, heavy at times south of the MA Turnpike through at least the lunch hour with lingering showers through 00Z this evening. Generally IFR with pockets of MVFR improving to MVFR and VFR by late this afternoon and evening as rain comes to an end; improvement occurring from north to south as low pressure pulls south. Breezy conditions, especially for terminals in RI and SE MA, with E/ENE winds gusting to as high as 25kt. LLWS may be an issue for the Cape and Islands.

Thursday Night...Moderate confidence.

Conditions improve to VFR for most but lingering MVFR/IFR possible early this evening for the south coast. Pockets of IFR stratus/fog possible by 12Z Friday. Winds ENE around 5 to 10kt.

Friday...

Widespread VFR after any AM fog burns off. Dry, E/NE winds gusting to around 15kt.

KBOS TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

Generally IFR with brief periods of MVFR this morning improving to MVFR/VFR this afternoon. VFR to persist through the period once it develops this evening. Rain, moderate at times, persists through lunchtime before becoming more scattered in nature. E/ENE winds gusting to 20kt.

KBDL TAF...Moderate confidence in TAF.

IFR with fleeting periods of MVFR this morning gradually improving to MVFR and VFR this evening. VFR persists through Friday once it develops with the exception of perhaps some early am IFR due to Fog on Friday. Rain, moderate to heavy at times, becoming more scattered after 16Z. E/ENE winds 15-20kt diminishing to around 5kt overnight.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night through Sunday: VFR.

Sunday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.

Monday: VFR.

MARINE
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

2 AM Update...

Today...High confidence.

E/ENE winds 15-25 kts, gusts 20-30 kts possible. Areas of rough seas with rain. Could still see some embedded thunderstorms across the southern waters through the first half of the day.
Rain tapering off from north to south across the eastern waters during the afternoon.

Tonight...High confidence. Rain tapering off across the southern waters north to south as the night progresses. Winds ENE to NE at 10-20 kts with gusts 15-20 kts gradually easing through Friday morning. Winds should preclude widespread fog/stratus formation but some pockets of fog may form by sunrise.

Friday... High Confidence.

Any pockets of fog will burn off quickly Friday morning. Dry with E/ENE winds gusting 15-20kt. Residual high seas resulted in the extension of outer water small craft advisories through the period.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft.

BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ231- 233-234.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for ANZ232- 235>237.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Friday for ANZ254>256.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
CPTR1 - 8452944 - Conimicut Light, RI 3 mi49 min NNE 19G25 56°F 58°F29.71
PVDR1 5 mi49 min NE 8.9G15 57°F 29.7456°F
BLTM3 - 8447387 - Borden Flats Light at Fall River, MA 7 mi49 min NE 8.9G12 57°F 29.71
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 7 mi49 min NNE 14G17 57°F 53°F29.73
FRXM3 7 mi49 min 57°F 56°F
NAXR1 - Narragansett Bay Reserve, RI 7 mi82 min SE 12 57°F 29.7157°F
PTCR1 - 8452951 - Potter Cove, Prudence Island, RI 7 mi49 min ENE 12G15 57°F 29.72
FRVM3 - 8447386 - Fall River, MA 8 mi49 min 57°F 55°F29.72
PRUR1 9 mi49 min 57°F 57°F
PDVR1 11 mi49 min N 12G18 57°F 29.6956°F
QPTR1 - 8454049 - Quonset Point, RI 12 mi49 min NE 16G19 57°F 29.70
NWPR1 - 8452660 - Newport, RI 16 mi49 min NE 9.9G15 58°F 54°F29.69
NBGM3 22 mi49 min E 9.9G17 57°F 29.72
44085 28 mi67 min 55°F 52°F8 ft
BUZM3 - Buzzards Bay, MA 28 mi67 min ENE 22G24 55°F 29.68
BZBM3 - 8447930 - Woods Hole, MA 37 mi49 min 56°F 55°F29.70
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 45 mi49 min 56°F 29.80
NLHC3 49 mi49 min 59°F 56°F29.64


Wind History for Conimicut Light, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KPVD THEODORE FRANCIS GREEN STATE,RI 7 sm16 minNE 134 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 55°F55°F100%29.72
KUUU NEWPORT STATE,RI 15 sm14 minENE 12G203 smOvercast Thunderstorm in Vicinity Rain Mist 57°F55°F94%29.68
KSFZ NORTH CENTRAL STATE,RI 16 sm11 minENE 081/2 smOvercast Rain Mist 55°F55°F100%29.75
KTAN TAUNTON MUNI KING FIELD,MA 17 sm15 minvar 056 smOvercast Lt Rain Mist 57°F54°F88%29.74
KEWB NEW BEDFORD RGNL,MA 18 sm14 minNE 095 smOvercast Rain Mist 57°F57°F100%29.71
Link to 5 minute data for KPVD


Wind History from PVD
(wind in knots)
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Tide / Current for Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island
   
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Warren
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Thu -- 02:24 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:22 AM EDT     3.87 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:04 AM EDT     1.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 03:56 PM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:01 PM EDT     1.21 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Warren, Narragansett Bay, Rhode Island, Tide feet
12
am
2.1
1
am
2.7
2
am
3.4
3
am
3.8
4
am
3.7
5
am
3.1
6
am
2.3
7
am
1.5
8
am
1.2
9
am
1.1
10
am
1.1
11
am
1.3
12
pm
1.7
1
pm
2.4
2
pm
3.2
3
pm
3.8
4
pm
4
5
pm
3.7
6
pm
2.9
7
pm
2.1
8
pm
1.6
9
pm
1.3
10
pm
1.2
11
pm
1.3


Tide / Current for Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current
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Westport River Entrance
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Thu -- 01:41 AM EDT     1.74 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 02:23 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:48 AM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 05:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:13 AM EDT     -1.96 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 10:38 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 01:16 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 02:05 PM EDT     2.13 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 04:25 PM EDT     -0.01 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     -1.94 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:34 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Westport River Entrance, Massachusetts Current, knots
12
am
1
1
am
1.6
2
am
1.7
3
am
1
4
am
-0.3
5
am
-1.4
6
am
-1.9
7
am
-1.8
8
am
-1.4
9
am
-0.9
10
am
-0.4
11
am
0.2
12
pm
1
1
pm
1.7
2
pm
2.1
3
pm
1.8
4
pm
0.6
5
pm
-0.8
6
pm
-1.7
7
pm
-1.9
8
pm
-1.7
9
pm
-1.4
10
pm
-0.9
11
pm
-0.4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of north east   
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Boston, MA,




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